NASCAR Barometer: Truex Perfects Strategy for Third Season Win

Martin Truex Jr. picked up his third win of the season in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 with perfect calls from pit road by crew chief Cole Pearn. First, the team sacrificed stage wins to set up themselves for the race win. Then, they delayed their final stop long enough to force the hands of their primary competition, which ultimately earned the victory. It was an impressive performance on a day dictated by strategy, and gives the team another victory and more confidence as the season marches toward the playoffs.

After a week off and a road course visit behind them, the series returns to its bread and butter at Chicagoland Speedway this week. The Ford-powered teams were in the catbird seat on the last oval, and fantasy players will be able to gauge how much of a gap they maintain when the cars hit the track this week. Stewart-Haas Racing will likely be among the favorites, but Furniture Row Racing has been entrenching themselves as championship contenders as well.

UPGRADE

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex was quick Sunday, running for the win all afternoon. The team knew early they had a machine that could take the victory, so they sacrificed stage wins to be in top position for the race win. In the third stage the team even faked out the competition and delayed their final pit stop to have the freshest tires for the final run to the checkered flag. That move gave Truex the grip to track down and pass Kevin Harvick for the lead, and then he only needed to cruise home to the checkered flag afterward. It was a masterful performance from the team looking to mount another championship charge. Truex has also won both of the last two Chicago races, which will make him an early favorite this week.

Kevin Harvick – Fantasy players should have expected Harvick to be quick in Sonoma, and the former champion didn't disappoint. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver was one of the best all afternoon as the race came down to pit strategy. Unfortunately, the team out-guessed themselves and relinquished track position and fresh tires on what should have been their final stop, and that enabled Truex to pass for the lead. The team took one last gamble to be in position to capitalize on a late caution, but it never came, and they'll have to be satisfied with a runner-up finish. Like Truex, Harvick has two wins at Chicagoland, and he finished third there last season with 59 laps led.

Denny Hamlin – Sunday's race was one of track position. Hamlin won the second stage by taking advantage of drivers who pitted ahead of him. He was running well at the front of the field as the leaders pitted prior to the pit closure, which enabled him to cycle into the lead for the final laps to pick up the associated bonus points. The track position he lost from having to pit after others stayed out gave him a hard final segment, but he still managed to walk away with a top-15 and points from the stage win. Hamlin won at Chicago in 2015, and hasn't finished worse than sixth at the track in the last four races.

Aric Almirola – A fantastic afternoon at Sonoma is great evidence of Almirola's new lease on life with Stewart-Haas Racing. His best finish at the track before Sunday was 14th in 2015. His average result from six career starts was actually 23.3. With less than 20 laps remaining on Sunday Almirola was running inside the top five and looking very confident to grab his best finish on the road course. By the finish, he had slipped deeper but still walked away with an impressive top-10 considering his prior results at the track. Fantasy players should expect that improving trend to continue this week in Chicago, too. Almirola has one top-10 at the circuit with an average finish of 22.8.

Chase Elliott – Elliott demonstrated his potential Sunday, absent the speed handicap Chevrolet-powered drivers have had to endure this season. The unique road course neutralized the advantage Ford has had for much of the season, and Elliott seized the opportunity to have a confidence-boosting top-five race. In fact, he was the only Chevrolet in the top five as the laps ticked away. Performances like that should remind fantasy owners that once Hendrick Motorsports solves the riddle of the new Chevrolet they could be in store for many victories. Chicago will be a very interesting weekend to see just how much of Sonoma's performance carries into the remainder of the season. Elliott has two top-fives from both of his prior visits there, too.

DOWNGRADE

A.J. Allmendinger – The situation looked optimistic for Allmendinger early on Sunday at Sonoma, but it turned sour shortly thereafter. Allmendinger has struggled much of this season, as he and the team search for speed, but he knew he would be able to hold his own with the fastest on the road courses. That looked to be true on Sunday as he won the first stage of the Toyota/Save Mart 350, but a missed shift in the second stage caused an engine failure. It was driver error that ended his afternoon prematurely, taking away one of his best shots at victory this season. He will get one more at Watkins Glen, but that may be it for himand the team this season, though.

Jamie McMurray – A top qualifying effort allowed McMurray a jumpstart on the race in Sonoma on Sunday. McMurray was expected to be one of the faster drivers on the road course on Sunday, but questions remained about his consistency and ability to maintain that pace throughout the long afternoon. In the end, it was his consistency that failed him. A mechanical failure put his car behind the wall prematurely, and after a lengthy assessment, the team discovered it wasimpossible to make repairs to get the car back on track. McMurray has four top-10s from 15 Chicagoland starts, which includes his 10th-place finish last season. He hasn't been a contender most races this season, and may not be again this week.

Kasey Kahne – Sonoma was an opportunity for Kahne to outperform the results he has had for much of the season thus far. He was on course to do just that throughout much of the race on Sunday, but a pit mistake cost him dearly with less than 30 laps remaining in the race. The team had been running inside the top-15 runners for most of the afternoon but lost control of a tire during the final pit stop to give up all of the positions Kahne had managed to gain. The team appointed a new crew chief in an attempt to change their fortunes, but Sunday's race will still go down as a missed opportunity. Kahne has two top-fives and four top-10s at Chicago with an average finish of 17.7.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney had a mountain of adversity to deal with in Sonoma after his power steering failed. The tight and twisty course isn't the spot you'd want something like that to happen, but Blaney persevered and battled as best as he could. The Penske Racing driver was exhausted by the finish, even after returning to the pits every so often to give his arms a rest to prevent cramping. The points he lost will be painful, as the playoffs continue to loom without a win for the team yet this season. Blaney finished fourth and 11th in his two prior Chicago visits and will need to return to the top five again this week to recover the ground he lost last week in Sonoma.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Erik Jones – Much has been expected of Jones in 2018 after his impressive start to life in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series, but reality hasn't lived up to expectations. That may have begun to change in California. The young driver took a giant step forward in learning how to race on the road course and found himself confidently inside the top 10 in the final stage of the race. His seventh-place finish at Sonoma was significantly better than his showing last season and will give him and the team confidence as they enter the second half of the season. Last week's outperformance could be good news as he heads to Chicago this weekend. He started 24th at the track last season before finishing multiple laps down in 33rd.