This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
We're in the midst of another doubleheader race weekend, and with F1 in Canada, we will transition directly from the Canadian GP (2:00 pm ET) to the Toyota Save Mart 350 at 3:00 pm ET (likely several minutes later by the time the green flag waves). NASCAR has the more unique race relative to its typical circuit as the racing series will head to a road course for the second time this season. For a more complete preview of the race, follow this link.
As for the Canadian GP, all attention will be on Mercedes to see if George Russell can capitalize on his pole position totally his second race victory in F1. Here is a full race preview.
Toyota Save Mart 350
Kyle Larson under 37.5 NASCAR points (third or worse with no stage wins)
Larson has a strong history of success at Sonoma, as he's the only current Cup driver to win pole multiple times. Six of the 34 race winners in track history have come from the first starting position, including Larson's own win in 2021. However, he qualified fifth Saturday and his history at Sonoma apart from the victory has been uninspiring. Since the next gen cars were introduced, he's finished just eighth and 15th at the track, even after landing on pole in 2022.
Ty Gibbs over 35.5 NASCAR points (fifth place or better with no stage wins)
Gibbs has been a favorite fade of mine this season due to the respect he's earned from NASCAR pundits and pretty much any market available for the sport, despite his relative inexperience at this level. This will be a race where I'm bullish on his chances though. Gibbs had four road course wins when he was a part of the Xfinity series and has finished inside the top five in each of his last three road course races in the Cup series. He finished only 18th at Sonoma in his only chance in 2023 but started sixth and qualified in a solid 10th position for the 2024 edition.
Martin Truex Jr. over 33.5 NASCAR points (seventh place or better with no stage wins)
Truex's track record alone makes this a slam dunk for the over as he's won three of the last five races at Sonoma and inside the top three in four of the last five. His qualifying performance makes things a bit trickier, as he will start in 21st place. While less comfortable, two things still convince me to take the over. The first is that Truex is still hunting for a win this season. While some of the prime contenders may be willing to accept stage points and tailor their strategies that way, Truex should have his eyes exclusively on grabbing a win. The second is that Truex went from starting 19th on the grid in 2021 to a third-place finish, showing he's capable of moving through the pack to secure a solid points haul.
Chris Buescher over 31.5 NASCAR points (ninth place or better with no stage wins)
We can cite Truex's dominance at Sonoma, and that track record is matched by Buescher's overall work on road courses. Since the next gen cars were introduced, he has failed to finish inside the top nine in only three of 12 road course races. That includes finishes of second and fourth at Sonoma. Also like Truex, Buescher made things far less comfortable with his performance in qualifying. He'll start Sunday's race in 26th position. The logic for sticking for the over is largely the same as above, as Buescher is hunting for a win and also has fought back from poor qualifying performances at various road courses in the last two years.
Canadian Grand Prix
PrizePicks projections are not currently available, but picks will be made in the comments as props become available.
