NASCAR All-Star Race Preview: Reviving the Past

NASCAR takes a break from the regular season schedule this Sunday night to hold its annual All-Star Race festivities. Most fantasy racing leagues don't recognize this event in the fantasy racing season, but some do along with daily fantasy racing and many racing pools that form specifically for this event and its unique format. After a two-season stint at Texas Motor Speedway for this exhibition race, NASCAR has moved the event to the newly restored North Wilkesboro Speedway. Millions of dollars have been spent over the past year or so to bring back to life a part of NASCAR's rich history. The 5/8-mile oval with 14-degree corner banking used to produce some of the most exciting short track action NASCAR had to offer. The speedway hosted NASCAR's top division from 1949 to 1996 and saw a number of legends win on its unique configuration. NASCAR will hope to revive and revisit some of that past history by putting its current stars on the legendary oval this weekend, under the lights.

This exhibition weekend is divided into several events. The racing begins Saturday evening with two qualifying heat races (60 laps each) to set the starting grid for Sunday night's All-Star Race. Then on Sunday evening the All-Star Open, a 100-lap sprint race divided into two segments (40/60 laps). As many as three Open drivers can transfer into the All-Star Race, the top two finishers of the Open, and a third driver by winning an internet fan vote. To qualify for the Open, a driver must have finished inside the Top 50 of the 2022 Cup Series standings, attempted to qualify for the 2023 Daytona 500 or competed in a NASCAR Cup Series event during the 2023 season. This is an exciting heat race, because the winner and runner-up are usually drivers that are not normally contenders for the victory on most Cup Series race weekends. 

After the Open and later Sunday night is the Cup Series All-Star Race. This is the night's main feature. It is a 200-lap event divided into two segments of 100 laps each. The drivers who transfer from the Open join the drivers who are race winners from the previous and current Cup Series seasons, past All-Star event champions and Cup Series champions who are active drivers and have competed in at least one series event during the 2022 or 2023 season. The starting grid is set by pole-qualifying heat races held the previous day and then the green flag drops for the first 100-lap segment. There will be pit stops during the break between halves and then racing resumes with the second 100-lap segment. The winner of this second and final stage earns a hefty $1 million purse. NASCAR overtime rules apply to the All-Star Race. Only green flag laps count, so there will be no finishes under caution, and no caution flag laps taken off the board to shorten this exciting event.

Since this is an exhibition racing event and a departure from NASCAR's normal racing format, as well as a move to a new track that is being brought back out of retirement, we have to look at performance statistics a bit differently this week. We have no data for the current drivers at North Wilkesboro Speedway, but we do have some very recent races this season on other short tracks. We'll take a close look at the results from the last four events on tracks 1-mile in size or less. Those would include Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville and Dover. This should be a good current sampling of short track performance and a good indicator for potential in Sunday night's All-Star Race. 

This weekend's race is unlike any of the normal Cup Series events, so we'll handle the prognostications a bit different as well.  We'll give you our picks for who'll contend for the win in the All-Star Open, and then our picks for who'll contend for winning the Cup Series All-Star Race.

The Open Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ty Gibbs – The rookie driver was a Top-10 finisher earlier this season on the Richmond short track, which is a comparable layout to North Wilkesboro. He was also Top 15 recently at the one-mile Dover oval. Gibbs has four Top-10 finishes this season to this point, and most of that success has come on intermediate ovals and road circuits. However, the driver of the No. 54 Toyota has the talent to really be a standout in this thinner field of Open drivers. Needless to say, this will be Gibbs' first All-Star weekend so there are no past records nor historical precedents. He's truly the wild-card driver of this opening heat race. However, Gibbs is a talent that shouldn't be underestimated in this win-and-advance format on the historical short track.      

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger hasn't been a world-beater in short track racing this season, but he was a Top-20 finisher in both Phoenix and recently at Dover. The Kaulig Racing veteran has more All-Star experience than most of the drivers in this field with 10 total starts in the Open and five total starts in the All-Star Race main event. Allmendinger is a two-time winner of the Open (2008 and 2018) and while those were both on the intermediate oval in Charlotte, they are valuable experience heading into this unique exhibition race. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet will draw upon that vast All-Star experience and couple it with the relative unknown wildcard of racing at North Wilkesboro and play that hand to his advantage.    

Aric Almirola – While he's been trying to get into a groove all season long, Almirola's best performance to this point in the season has been on a short track. He rang up a strong third-place qualifying effort at Martinsville Speedway and followed with an equally strong sixth-place finish in April. That has been Almirola's lone Top 10 of the season. Much like AJ Allmendinger, Almirola has a longer All-Star resume than most in this Open field. He has seven starts in the All-Star Open, with one victory, and five starts in the All-Star Race main event. Almirola is no stranger to competing on All-Star weekend and racing competitively. The Open win came in 2021 at Texas Motor Speedway, so it was very recent as well. Almirola will be in the mix to win this All-Star Open.  

Michael McDowell – We don't commonly think of McDowell when it comes to short track racing, but he recently grabbed an impressive sixth-place finish at the Richmond oval. That similar configuration should play well to the banks and turns of North Wilkesboro Speedway. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has 16 seasons of Cup Series experience and that will help him in this smaller, thinner field of the Open. McDowell is a seven-time participant in the All-Star Open and two-time starter in the All-Star Race, so he's no stranger to All-Star weekend. While he lacks the success of winning any of these exhibition races, that could easily change this weekend at North Wilkesboro.        

Josh Berry – Berry will continue to drive the No. 48 Chevrolet in relief of the injured Alex Bowman for All-Star weekend. While he's made eight Cup Series starts this season for both Bowman and Chase Elliott, his results have been better on the smaller ovals than the larger tracks. Berry grabbed a 10th-place result at Phoenix, an impressive runner-up at Richmond and 10th-place at Dover. It goes without saying that this will be his first All-Star weekend, so nerves and anticipation will be high. However, Berry's eight Cup starts to this point in the 2023 calendar will help to calm those nerves. He has an excellent and very capable team backing him up with the Hendrick No. 48 Chevrolet squad. Berry could be the driver who very few see coming and could steal away this All-Star Open.       

Ryan Preece – The Stewart Haas Racing driver won the pole at the Martinsville short track recently and led a whopping 135 laps before fading to 15th-place by the finish. How's that for a memorable short track performance? It's hard to overlook in NASCAR's return to North Wilkesboro Speedway. Preece was also Top 15 earlier this season at Phoenix and Top 20 at both Richmond and Dover. While he's not been an eye-popping performer on the 2023 short tracks, he's been just good enough to really stand out in this thinned field of the All-Star Open. Preece has raced in two prior Opens, finishing sixth- in 2019 and 13th-place in 2020. He'll be seeking much bigger game this weekend.       

The All-Star Race Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The two-time All-Star winner and two-time Open winner checks in near the top of the contenders list this week. Larson has been a real performer in these exhibition races with two All-Star wins, one runner-up All-Star performance and two victories in the All-Star Open. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been one of the season's top performers on short tracks with wins at Martinsville and Richmond and a Top-5 finish at Phoenix. Larson has been the man to beat on these small ovals in 2023. The fact that we're All-Star racing just adds extra emphasis to this veteran driver. When racing on the big stage, under the lights for the big purse, Larson has been a clutch performer.   

Ross Chastain – Chastain has had race-winning cars in recent weeks, but he hasn't cashed in because of race flow, late cautions and the urgency to either get into the lead or defend the lead contributing to accidents. Still, the veteran Trackhouse Racing driver has managed to nab a runner-up finish at Dover and third-place finish at Richmond recently. Chastain doesn't have a long nor rich history of competing in this exhibition event due to racing for smaller, ill-equipped race teams in the earlier part of his career. He has just three appearances in the Open and two in the All-Star Race, with little in the way of accomplishments. However, this season's move to a short track venue coupled with the current performance of his No. 1 Chevrolet team could allow him to explode on the scene this Sunday evening.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has really gotten his act together in the last three races. He won at Dover and was on track to win again in a dominant performance at Darlington this past week before misfortune struck. Truex has led a combined 292 laps in the last three races. He and the No. 19 JGR Toyota team will ride that momentum into All-Star weekend. Truex is a two-time winner of the Open and he's finished runner-up once in the All-Star Race itself, however, he's never won the main event and big cash prize. The move to a short track this season could be the tipping point to make this happen for the veteran driver. Truex is a three-time Richmond winner since the 2019 season, and that track is a good comp to North Wilkesboro.     

Denny Hamlin – Not only has Truex gotten his act together recently, but we've also seen a Hamlin surge in the last three events. The No. 11 JGR Toyota team were victors at Kansas and were Top 5 at Dover recently. While Hamlin hasn't led the bulk of laps that Truex has lately, he's still been a consistent face among the leaders late in races. Hamlin is used to performing in these exhibition races. He's a one-time All-Star winner (2015) and he finished runner-up last season in the big race at Texas Motor Speedway. That was one of four Top-5 finishes he's had in All-Star Races just since the 2015 season. Hamlin loves short tracks and he's won on them 11 times in his Cup Series career. The move to North Wilkesboro Speedway this season could earn him a second All-Star trophy this Sunday night.

William Byron – Other than winning a couple Open stages in the old format, Byron doesn't have an eye-popping All-Star resume. In fact, the Hendrick Motorsports youngster only has three Open starts and four All-Star starts to his credit. This is another driver with the move to a short track there is hope for a breakout. Byron has been a strong performer this season with three victories already to this point. He's coming off a recent Top-5 finish at Dover and he racked up a win at Phoenix earlier this season. The No. 24 Chevrolet team have been strong performers on the short tracks in 2023. Even though his Richmond finish didn't equal his effort (117 laps led) it's a strong indicator for Byron to have success Sunday night in the North Wilkesboro All-Star Race.   

Christopher Bell – Bell is another young driver with a very short All-Star resume. He has just one Open start and two All-Star starts to his credit and he's typically finished around 10th- or 11th-place in those three events. This could be the season where Bell makes his big All-Star splash. North Wilkesboro Speedway will be an equalizer of sorts this weekend. Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team have been impressive this season. He grabbed a win on short track Bristol dirt and he has sixth-, fourth- and sixth-place finishes at Phoenix, Richmond and Dover. Bell has not been a big lap leader this season (other than in the Bristol dirt race) but he's been among the leaders a lot and very opportunistic in 2023. His fourth-place Richmond performance stands out in our memory and seems to foreshadow his All-Star potential this Sunday night.  

Chase Elliott – Elliott is the 2020 All-Star winner and he has a track record of performing well in these exhibition races despite the fact that they've moved venues in recent seasons. That 2020 victory is noteworthy because it too came on a short track in Bristol. Elliott has been gathering steam since returning from his leg injury a few weeks ago. It all culminated in his strong third-place performance at Darlington this past Sunday. We do believe the rust has officially been shaken off the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet. Due to Elliott's leg injury and races missed, he doesn't have the short track experience of other drivers this season, but he does boast respectable 10th- and 11th-place performances at Martinsville and Dover recently. Some may dismiss Elliott's chances Sunday since he's yet to win this season, but we believe that would be a mistake.

Joey Logano – Logano is the 2016 winner of the All-Star Race and he has a number of Top-5 finishes in this event over the years. In fact, the Penske Racing star has four Top-5 finishes in the last five All-Star Races. That's some pretty remarkable consistency. The move to North Wilkesboro Speedway this season is a bit of an unknown or x-factor for this weekend. However, the No. 22 Ford team have been no slouches on the short tracks this year. Logano's seventh-place Richmond finish and runner-up performance at Martinsville Speedway tease the potential of this driver and team on this weekend's historic oval in North Carolina. While a bit disadvantaged compared to the faster Chevrolet and Toyota teams this weekend, Logano will be the biggest threat Ford has to offer.