NASCAR All-Star Race Preview: Change of Venue

NASCAR takes a break from its regular-season schedule this Wednesday night to hold its annual All-Star Race festivities.  Most fantasy racing leagues don't recognize this event in the fantasy racing season, but some do, along with daily fantasy racing and many racing pools that form specifically for this event and its unique format.  

NASCAR has held its annual All-Star event at Charlotte Motor Speedway since 1987.  The intermediate oval in North Carolina has become synonymous with this celebration of the sport's best drivers.  However, the sanctioning body decided to change venues in 2020.  This season's All-Star Race will be held at the short track in Bristol, Tenn.  For the first time ever, NASCAR will hold this high-profile exhibition on a short track, under the lights.  Throw in a few format shakeups and this All-Star event will be like none other.

This exhibition race is divided into several racing segments which ultimately culminate in the final segment in which a winner is crowned.  The racing begins Wednesday evening with the NASCAR Open, an 85-lap sprint race divided into three segments (35/35/15 laps) with the final 15-lap heat being the final dash to the finish.  As many as four Open drivers can transfer into the All-Star Race, three by winning each segment of the Open, and the potential fourth by winning an internet fan vote.  

To qualify for the Open, a driver must have finished inside the Top 50 of the 2019 Cup Series standings, attempted to qualify for the 2020 Daytona 500 or competed in a NASCAR Cup Series event during the 2020 season.  This is an exciting heat race, because the winners of the segments are usually drivers that are not normally contenders for the victory on most Cup Series race weekends.  

After the Open and later Wednesday night is the Cup Series All-Star Race.  This is the night's main feature.  It is a 140-lap event divided into four segments of 55 laps, 35 laps, 35 laps, and a 15-lap shootout finale.  The drivers who transfer from the Open join the drivers who are race winners from the previous and current Cup Series seasons, past All-Star event champions and Cup Series champions who are active drivers and have competed in at least one series event during the 2019 or 2020 season.  Once the field is set, racing begins in the first segment of 55 laps.  After the first 55-lap segment a break of approximately 5 minutes and optional pit stops are performed.  The next two 35-lap segments play out similarly.  The winner of each of these segments gets an automatic seed into the final 10-driver, 15-lap shootout.  The rest of the 10-driver field is set by average finishing position for the three prior heats.  Any remaining drivers that don't make the cut are eliminated from the final segment.  

The winner of this fourth and final segment earns a hefty $1 million purse.  NASCAR overtime rules apply to all segments of the All-Star Race.  Only green flag laps count, so there will be no finishes under caution, and no caution flag laps taken off the board to shorten these exciting segments.

Aside from racing at Bristol Motor Speedway, also new for 2020 is the "choose rule" or "cone rule" as some drivers call it.  Traditionally, the drivers line up for restarts in the order they come off pit road, but with this new rule the drivers will approach a designated area on the track while still under caution and commit to the inside or outside lane for the restart.  The new rule adds more strategy to the restarts and allows some drivers further back in the field to choose the "non-preferred" lane in order to grab track position.

Since this is an exhibition racing event and a departure from NASCAR's normal racing format, we have to put the historical track statistics in proper perspective this week.  The stats can be skewed since most teams come to the All-Star race with "disposable cars" and are looking to hit the big payday even at the expense of wrecking the team's car.  However, we can rely to the historical stats to a certain degree when evaluating our contenders this week.  The stats in the table below cover the Top 15 drivers by average finish in the last 10 races at Bristol Motor Speedway.

This weekend's race is unlike any of the normal Cup Series events, so we'll handle the prognostications a bit different as well.  We'll give you our picks for who'll contend for the win in the NASCAR Open, and then our picks for who'll contend for winning the fourth and final segment of the Cup Series All-Star Race.

Open Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Clint Bowyer – One of the more experienced drivers in the Open field will be Bowyer. The 15-season veteran has been a strong Bristol performer over the years, and very good on short tracks in general.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford rides a five-race Bristol Top-10 streak into Wednesday night's action, and the last of those was a brilliant runner-up finish at the Tennessee short track in late May of this year.  Bowyer has never won a Bristol points race, but this reduced Open field and short racing segments give him the opportunity to grab a victory in this exhibition race.  Bowyer's short track exploits this season have netted a pair of Top-5 finishes in three starts, so you know he'll be razor sharp for this 85-lap heat race.   

William Byron – The young guns are sure to shine in this opening heat race of the night.  Byron will be one of those young stars. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet now has five-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, and that's more experience at this short track than most of the series' young drivers.  Byron's best performance came in May's Food City 500.  He came from 13th on the starting grid to race inside the Top 10 much of that 500-lap race.  He eventually finished a career-best eighth for his first Bristol Top 10.  Byron is a perfect three-for-three with Top 10's in every short track race of 2020.  That bodes well going into the NASCAR Open.  He'll contend for the win in this short exhibition race. 

Christopher Bell – Bell has been making big strides after a slow start to his rookie campaign.  The Leavine Family Racing driver has nabbed four Top 10's since NASCAR resumed action in May.  One of those efforts was Bell's impressive ninth-place finish at Bristol Motor Speedway in late May.  It was his first-career Cup Series start at the high-banked short track.  Bell did not disappoint in that performance.  It's been his lone good finish on the circuit's short tracks to this point.  We believe the Open sets up equally as well for this driver and team.  Bell could rise above this talented field and take the Open victory.      

Matt DiBenedetto – The veteran Wood Brothers Racing driver led 93 laps and nearly won last summer's Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race at Bristol for his former team at Leavine Family Racing.  It was an impressive performance for DiBenedetto and one that has left a long-lasting impression.  While his outing at BMS in May wasn't nearly as impressive, luck did play a major role in that outcome.  We believe the Open is a perfect opportunity for DiBenedetto to redeem himself at the Tennessee short track.  DiBenedetto's last short track outing was a masterful seventh-place finish at Martinsville in mid-June.  While the two tracks bear little resemblance, the momentum and rhythm of short track racing is a constant.  High concentration, and hitting your marks on the track are paramount.  We believe DiBenedetto has those skills and can steal the win in this 85-lap shootout.    

Austin Dillon – In a field that's generally short on experience, Dillon's name stands out.  The Richard Childress Racing driver has seven seasons of racing under his belt at NASCAR's top level.  That's way more than the average across this very young Open field.  While Dillon only has three-career Bristol Top 10's to his credit, the last of those came in May's Food City 500.  He piloted the No. 3 Chevrolet to a strong sixth-place finish in that 500-lap battle.  The notes from that outing should come in handy for Dillon and crew chief Justin Alexander.  This season has seen an uptick in this driver and team's performance, so we shouldn't write off Dillon in this exhibition event.  In fact, he could be the driver many don't see coming to win the NASCAR Open. 

Tyler Reddick – While the Richard Childress Racing rookie has cooled a bit going from June into July, he's still performed impressively in his rookie season.  Reddick has nabbed four Top-10 finishes to this point in the season, with the last of those coming at Indianapolis a couple weeks ago.  The short tracks have been a bit more of a puzzle for this young driver, but with time he'll figure them out.  Reddick's Bristol performance in May led to a crash and DNF, but that was over 500-laps of wild action.  The 85-lap Open is a wide open brawl.  With the right starting track position, and good luck, we can envision the young driver making some waves in his first NASCAR Open.    

Darrell Wallace Jr. – The driver of the No. 43 RPM Chevrolet has had an above average season to this point.  Wallace has grabbed three Top 10's so far, and stands a career-best 19th currently in the championship point standings.  One of the three Top-10 finishes he's collected was a strong 10th-place finish at Bristol Motor Speedway in late May.  It was his first-career Top 10 at the Tennessee short track and a good indicator of what Wallace has done on the short tracks in general this season.  His 11th-place finish at Martinsville in June was yet another impressive performance.  Wallace may not have the speed to win this event, but we expect to see him racing among the leaders in this 85-lap heat race that opens All-Star night. 

All-Star Race Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – The driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota is a two-time Bristol winner, and a one-time All-Star winner.  Hamlin is used to competing and producing on this big prime-time stage.  His last Bristol victory came in August of last year, and he was very strong in our most recent Bristol race.  Hamlin led 131 laps and looked like a potential winner in the Food City 500, but he ran into trouble and finished 17th.  The speed, however, was undeniable.  Hamlin is one of the hottest drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series as we enter the All-Star Race, and he has to be considered one of the top contenders to win.  

Kyle Busch – This will be Busch's 15th appearance in the All-Star Race. He is a one-time winner by virtue of winning at Charlotte in 2017.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star will visit one of his favorite short tracks this week, and that should make a big difference in his typical chances in this high-stakes exhibition.  Busch is an eight-time Bristol winner, and his most recent came in the spring of 2019.  The veteran driver has won or finished inside the Top 5 in five of his last six Bristol starts.  Busch's start there in late May yielded 100 laps led and a strong fourth-place finish in the Food City 500.  He's easily one of the most experienced and proficient drivers at this famous short track. 

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is due some close examination before this All Star Race.  Keselowski is a three-time Bristol winner, and our most recent victor at the half-mile oval in May of this year.  He's also a runner-up finisher in two All-Star Races, but he's never won the big event and big payday.  The move to the Bristol oval for this exhibition could be the wrinkle that pays off big for Keselowski this week.  He's been stellar this season on the short tracks with the Bristol win, third-place Martinsville finish and 11th-place at Phoenix.  Coming off his 115-laps led and victory from the pole at Bristol in late May, all eyes will be on the No. 2 Ford Mustang this Wednesday night. 

Chase Elliott – Elliott will make his fifth-career start in the All-Star Race this Wednesday night.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has yet to really make his mark in this big exhibition event.  Elliott has one Top-5 finish in those prior starts, but he's yet to really lead laps or contend for the win.  That should change this Wednesday night.  The change in venue to Bristol will be a big reason why he could succeed.  BMS has yielded three Top-5 and four Top-10 results in nine-career starts for the Hendrick Motorsports driver.  He's led close to 300 laps in those efforts, so he typically races up front in most Bristol races.  Elliott led 88 laps here in late May, but ran into trouble and finished 22nd.  The heat racing format and 140 total laps play to his strengths in this prime-time spectacle.  

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star will be aiming for his second-career win in this prestigious exhibition event.  Logano won the All Star Race in 2016 and he finished fourth last season, so he knows what it takes to win this high profile event.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a two-time winner at the Bristol short track, and he has close to 800 laps led for his career at this facility.  Logano has been pretty sharp on the short tracks in 2020 with one win and two Top-5 finishes to go along with 296 laps led.  The one rough outing was at Bristol earlier in May, but Logano should bounce back nicely this week.  The Penske Racing driver possesses top skills in short track racing, and this All-Star format is a bit of a field equalizer in many respects.    

Kurt Busch – Busch is a one-time winner of the All-Star Race, and he's a six-time Bristol winner.  That's a very powerful combination for this week.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran won at BMS as recently as the 2018 season, and he's reeled off three-straight Bristol Top 10's since that victory including one runner-up finish.  Busch cracks the Top 5 at this oval to the tune of a healthy 31-percent.  That's high compared to the series average.  This Wednesday night's four-segment, 140-lap battle will be a free-for-all and that gives Busch a better chance to win than the normal 500-lap Bristol race.  His odds of winning are probably much better than Las Vegas will give him credit.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is a two-time winner of the All Star Race, and a two-time Bristol winner.  Admittedly, this is not one of Harvick's better short tracks, so his odds of winning are less than some of the drivers listed above him in this article.  Still, we have to respect the driver of the SHR No. 4 Ford and what he can do on this big stage.  He led 33 laps and finished runner-up in last season's All-Star Race at Charlotte, so we have to remember he's a big-time performer in these exhibition races.  Harvick was a subpar 11th-place when the series visited here in late May, but at that time the field wasn't racing for a one-million-dollar payday.  We expect Harvick to up his game this Wednesday night. 

Erik Jones – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver excels at racing the Bristol high banks.  Jones has three Top-5 finishes in seven-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway.  That includes his fifth-place finish here in May's Food City 500.  Jones has led close to 300 laps for his young career at BMS, and that speaks to his speed and skill at this track.  This will just be Jones' second appearance in the All-Star Race, so he is a bit inexperienced compared to the veteran drivers in this field.  However, we believe his Bristol expertise makes up for a lot of that lack of racing on this big stage.  If there's a driver in the field that can upset some of the bigger names, it's Jones and the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team.