Hollywood Casino 400 Preview: Chase for Cup Intensifies

This week the opening round in the Chase for the Cup will pick up the intensity. For the 16 drivers in the playoff field the pressure continues to increase and so do the stakes. This Sunday we travel to Kansas Speedway and take the next steps in determining this season's champion. This is the second race of the opening round and the prelude to the Round of 12 cut that happens after next weekend's Bristol race.   

For this second race in the Chase for the NASCAR Cup, the series pays its second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway just outside Kansas City for the Hollywood Casino 400. When we think of the Kansas oval we think of the many intermediate ovals on the circuit.  This oval may not be exactly like Charlotte, Texas or Atlanta, but it could easily be the most important oval regarding the Chase for the NASCAR Cup Series championship by the time we reach Phoenix in November. As we visit the 1.5-mile oval in Kansas this weekend the schedule offers up a huge advantage to fantasy racing players and the drivers alike, as it was only just May of this year that the stars of NASCAR were locked in combat at this intermediate oval. The data from that race, the Advent Health 400, will be fresh and applicable to the field for this weekend's Hollywood Casino 400. 

Since we're making our second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval. These numbers will be even more important than normal and even more relevant given that we've seen a lot of repeat winners at this facility. As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series are making a very important start at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 31 races at Kansas Speedway.

The race earlier this year at Kansas Speedway was very entertaining. Denny Hamlin would outfox Kyle Larson late in the race to grab his fourth-career victory at the facility and Toyota's fourth win in the last six Kansas races. Considering that these two were doing battle for the win at Darlington this past weekend, we could see a sequel to what happened earlier this season at the Kansas oval. William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. also had a strong presence at the front in the Advent Health 400. The current streaking drivers and strong performers at Kansas Speedway appear to be a diverging group this weekend. However, with the playoffs now underway there will be many suitors for victory lane at Kansas and grabbing that valuable spot in the next round of the Chase for the Cup. 

Hamlin has been an uneven performer at times this season and he didn't start the playoffs well with troubles this past weekend at Darlington and a poor finish when he had arguably the fastest car on the track much of the evening. He's looking to right the ship for a push deeper into the playoffs and a strong claim to that elusive championship. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is coming back to Kansas Speedway at the right time seeking redemption and rejuvenation. For a handful of other hopefuls, it's another opportunity to win this weekend and keep their championship hopes alive or build momentum for next season. With championship implications weighing heavily, we expect to see some real urgency in the racing, and some rebound performances for drivers that got roughed up in the frantic racing at Darlington Raceway this past weekend. We'll highlight the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon and the ones you need to avoid in order to dominate the day at Kansas Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – After an inconsistent season, Hamlin appears to be getting his act together in a big way heading into the playoffs. The Joe Gibbs Racing star led 177 laps and was a major threat to win this past Sunday at Darlington before a loose wheel would take him out of contention. Hamlin is the active wins leader at Kansas with four total and he also has close to 400 laps led at this facility, much of which has come since the 2019 season. His career totals and averages aren't the greatest and they may cause some to pass on Hamlin this weekend, but that would be a mistake. Much of Hamlin's success at Kansas Speedway has come in just the last five seasons. Make no mistake, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota will factor in the outcome Sunday afternoon at Kansas.

Kyle Larson – Larson stumbled a bit out of the gate last week at Darlington Raceway with an 18th-place qualifying effort, but he would recover nicely and go on to win the Cook Out Southern 500 to kick off the Chase for the Cup. The Hendrick Motorsports star has his automatic berth into round 2 of the playoffs, but that won't slow him down at Kansas Speedway. Larson has been zeroed-in on this track in recent visits. He has won or finished runner-up in three of the last four Kansas Speedway events and he's led a combined 366 laps in his last six races at this intermediate oval. Larson's start here in May of this year yielded an outside pole position, 85 laps led and a brilliant runner-up finish in the Advent Health 400. With major stakes on the line, Larson should be a top contender to win the Hollywood Casino 400.      

William Byron – The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been sharp on intermediate ovals this season with wins at Las Vegas and Atlanta, a runner-up finish at Charlotte and a fourth-place finish this past week at Darlington. Byron overcame a poor qualifying effort to forge a strong fourth-place finish in the Cook Out Southern 500. In doing so, Byron continued what has been a very strong record this season on the mid-sized ovals. Byron has 11-career starts at Kansas Speedway and his seven Top-10 finishes register a nice 64-percent Top-10 rate and 136 laps led to boot. He won the pole position and led 10 laps earlier this season at Kansas, and finished the day with an impressive third-place finish. He's yet to win at the heartland oval, but with the playoffs now in full effect we expect to see Byron's very best on display in the Hollywood Casino 400.            

Chris Buescher – The epic hot streak that Buescher is on continued this past Sunday at Darlington Raceway. The veteran driver of the No. 17 Ford was running down the leaders at the end, but ran out of laps and had to settle for the strong third-place finish in the Cook Out Southern 500. Buescher now has three wins, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the last six events leading up to Kansas Speedway. The veteran Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has just three Top 10's in 15-career starts (20-percent) at this intermediate track. However, this driver and team are hitting on all cylinders right now and are a threat to win each week no matter where the series is visiting.       

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off a disappointing 18th-place finish to start the Chase at Darlington this past week. With a return to Kansas Speedway, we should expect Truex to step back into the spotlight. He led 79 laps and was a strong eighth-place finisher there earlier in the season. The veteran driver of the No. 19 Toyota had a good shot at victory but would fade in the final laps. Truex is a two-time Kansas winner with over 900 laps led and his 17 Top-10 finishes register a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate and 12.1 average finish. The veteran driver rides a jaw-dropping eight-race Kansas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace makes an intriguing fantasy racing play this Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400. The 23XI Racing veteran led 58 laps and won this event one year ago in convincing fashion. Wallace has 11-career Cup Series starts at the Kansas oval and only three Top-10 finishes. Interestingly though, all three of those Top 10's has come in his last three starts at Kansas Speedway. Wallace has seemingly figured something out about this track that he didn't used to know. That valuable experience coupled with his recent performance on intermediate tracks should be enough to power Wallace towards another Top-10 run at Kanas Speedway.  

Kyle Busch – Busch fought hard and managed a reasonable 11th-place finish at Darlington this past weekend. He'll be on the quest for better results at Kansas Speedway this weekend. The Richard Childress Racing star should rebound this week with advancement in the playoffs on the line. Busch is a two-time Kansas winner and he's led well over 400 laps for his career at this 1.5-mile oval. His 14-career Top-10 finishes at the oval work out to a reasonable 45-percent rate. Busch does have better mid-sized ovals in his resume, but he's good enough here to post a Top-10 finish with playoff advancement weighing heavily. Let's not overlook that he's been a 67-percent Top-10 finisher on the intermediate ovals in 2023.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has three Top-10 finishes in his last four races, capped by a strong runner-up effort at Darlington Raceway this past Sunday, coming into Kansas Speedway this weekend. The 23XI Racing youngster is participating in the Chase for the Cup playoffs and racing with urgency as we drive deeper into the playoffs. Reddick now has eight-career Cup Series starts at the Kansas oval and three Top 10's in those efforts. His No. 45 Toyota was strong here in May of this year, capturing a fifth-place starting spot and leading 23 laps. Reddick would go on to finish a steady ninth-place in the Advent Health 400. We look for the young driver to continue his recent success at Kansas Speedway.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Kansas & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is on a roll coming into the playoffs and he just nabbed a strong sixth-place finish at Darlington Raceway this past weekend to get his Chase for the Cup rolling well. Intermediate ovals have been dependable for the driver of the No. 6 Ford this season with a steady 50-percent Top-10 rate and sharp 11.3 average finish. As it relates to Kansas Speedway, Keselowski has two victories and 13 Top-10 finishes (48-percent) to go along with 327 laps led for his career at this intermediate oval. It would seem to be a very good follow up track for Keselowski on the heels of his strong sixth-place effort at Darlington Raceway.   

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has swung from the spectacular to the subpar many times over the years at Kansas Speedway. Thusly we have slotted Logano in the sleepers list this week for potential, but offset by some risk. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has three-career victories at Kansas Speedway and over 500 laps led. His 39-percent Top-10 rate here is a bit disappointing, but Logano knows how to race up front here and win. Intermediate ovals in general have been similar for Logano in 2023. He has one win, but only two Top-10 finishes (33-percent) on the mid-sized ovals this season. The way the No. 22 Ford team is running right now, you want to give careful consideration to Logano in your fantasy lineups this Sunday afternoon.  

Ross Chastain – Chastain was ice cold leading up to the Chase for the Cup playoffs, but he responded in a big way this past week at Darlington Raceway. The veteran driver would snap his cold spell with a strong fifth-place finish in the Cook Out Southern 500. Now he'll look to build on that momentum with a good performance in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. You're going to have to set aside career performance at this track (33-percent Top-10 rate) and focus strictly on recent outings. Chastain carries a three-race Kansas Top-10 streak into Sunday's action and his 6.3 average finish across that span is hard to ignore. Intermediate ovals have been rewarding tracks over the past two seasons for this driver and team.

Chase Elliott – Despite his exclusion from the Chase for the Cup, Elliott dug down deep and gave us the dependable performance we expected at Darlington this past Sunday (eighth-place). He's not racing for this season, but preparing for 2024 and will continue honing the team's performance down the stretch. Elliott is a one-time Kansas winner and he's finished runner-up here on two occasions. Expecting a visit to victory lane in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 may be a bit of a stretch right now for the No. 9 Chevrolet team, but Elliott's 60-percent Top-10 rate at this oval is a good statistic to focus on heading into Sunday's 400-mile playoff battle.

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star was a subpar 19th-place finisher at Darlington this past Sunday, despite a good seventh-place qualifying effort. While that would seem to be a bad omen, we have to remember how incredible a Kansas performer Harvick is before we just write him off this week. The driver of the No. 4 Ford is a three-time winner at Kansas Speedway and he's finished runner-up on number of occasions, five to be exact. With 12 Top-5 and 19 Top-10 finishes his 34- and 54-percent Top-5 and Top-10 rates are stellar. Harvick's subpar finish at Darlington Raceway this past week means that he'll be in razor-sharp form this week at Kansas to make up for that setback in the playoffs.

Austin Dillon – Dillon has not had a very noteworthy season. In fact, his Top-10 totals, average finish and points ranking are tracking towards one of his worst seasons in recent memory. However, we can write that off with a start at one of his favorite tracks. Dillon absolutely loves Kansas Speedway and his recent results bear this fact out. His last six performances at the mid-sized Kansas track have netted: 11th-, 10th-, 10th-, 13th-, 14th- and 10th-place finishes. That tallies up to a strong 11.3 average finish across the span. Dillon's start at the facility earlier this season netted an 11th-place starting grid spot and 10th-place finish in the Advent Health 400.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster has historically struggled at this intermediate oval. Kanas Speedway has only yielded seven Top 10's to Blaney in 17 starts (41-percent) and he's only cracked the Top 10 once in his last five visits to the Kansas track. Blaney's performance on 1.5-mile ovals in general this season has been inconsistent. With mysterious power outages at tracks like Las Vegas, Kansas and most recently Nashville, you just never seem to be able to know what to expect. Blaney's current inconsistency is another concern as he rides into Kansas Speedway with three Top 10's in the last eight races (38-percent) and a 17.8 average finish across his most recent span. We consider the No. 12 Ford team to be a high-risk fantasy option for the Hollywood Casino 400.   

Michael McDowell – Intermediate ovals have been a bit of a mess for the Front Row Motorsports veteran in 2023. After early-season Top 10's at Gateway and Atlanta, McDowell has cooled considerably and failed to crack the Top 10 in his other intermediate oval starts, including his crash and DNF this past week at Darlington. Kansas Speedway has been a track of limited success for him over the years with just two Top 15's in 24-career starts (8-percent) and a poor 27.5 average finish. McDowell's recent victory at Indianapolis Road Course has been a real highlight of late, but outside of that win, it's been a challenge to crack the Top 15 for the No. 34 Ford team. It would seem there are better fantasy options in the mid-field of drivers this week at Kansas Speedway.   

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has fallen on hard times of late. He's failed to crack the Top 10 in the last three races and he hasn't scored a Top 10 on an intermediate oval since Atlanta in July. The crash and 34th-place finish Suarez collected at Darlington Raceway this past week speaks to those struggles. In 13-career Kansas Speedway starts the Trackhouse Racing veteran has only scored two Top-10 finishes (15-percent) and collected a 20.8 average finish. Additionally, 1.5-mile ovals have been a tough puzzle for Suarez with just two Top 10's in six starts and 15th-place finish at Kanas Speedway earlier this season. There are better fantasy racing options for Sunday's 400-mile Kansas race.          

Christopher Bell – Inconsistency at this time of year will get you an early ticket out of the playoffs. That's Bell's concern heading into the Hollywood Casino 400. After finishes of 16th- and 23rd-place the last two events, there are some major concerns for the No. 20 Toyota team. Bell is a pretty decent performer at Kansas Speedway (16.1 average finish, 57-percent Top-10 rate) but his performance there earlier this season is a bit concerning. The 12th-place qualifying spot was his worst start at Kansas since 2020 and he would crash midway into the 400-mile race and finish a distant 36th-place. Intermediate ovals for this driver and team have been all over the map this season. However, the 33-percent Top-10 rate and 17.0 average finish on similar sized tracks does nothing to boost our confidence in Bell.