Hollywood Casino 400 Preview: Cut to the Round of 8

The oval of Kansas Speedway is just our second intermediate oval event in the Chase for the Cup. It is one of four races on ovals of this size in the 10-event Chase lineup that crowns our champion. That means ovals of this configuration make up a whopping 40-percent of the championship-crowning Chase for the Cup schedule. So pay close attention this weekend as trends from this 400-mile race will set the stage at upcoming intermediate ovals. While Kansas has been a track of manufacturer parity over the years, it's beginning to tilt in one direction. Our race in May of this year went back in favor of Ford. Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson monopolized the lead in that event, with Harvick in his No. 4 Ford eventually coming out on top. However, there were a handful of Toyota suitors that were close behind this duo. Martin Truex Jr. led 13 laps in this event before finishing second, and Denny Hamlin also found himself inside the Top 5 at the end of the night. For the drivers still alive in the Chase, this race will prove to be step up or go home time. Four of the 12 drivers will be eliminated after this event, so the urgency to win will be in the forefront of all of their minds.

Since we're making our second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval. These numbers will be even more important than normal and even more relevant given that we've seen a lot of repeat winners at this facility. As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series are making a very important start at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 21 races at Kansas Speedway.

Martin Truex Jr. - If the Furniture Row Racing star hopes to defend his 2017 championship, a victory at Kansas Speedway will go a long way to that end. He's not been quite as dominant on intermediate ovals this season as last, but he's still been pretty strong. A recent win at Kentucky, and third-place finish at Las Vegas recently signal this team is still dangerous. Truex led a whopping 270 laps combined in those two events. In his last visit to Kansas Speedway Truex led just 13 laps, but finished runner-up in the KC Masterpiece 400. He has two victories and one runner-up finish in his last three starts at this Kansas oval. The confidence level of the No. 78 Toyota team entering this event must be sky high.

Kevin Harvick - The Stewart Haas Racing star is a three-time Kansas winner, and he rides a strong five-race Kansas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. When the Monster Energy Cup Series was last at Kansas Speedway, the driver of the No. 4 Ford won the pole, led 79 laps and walked away with the trophy. Harvick and Truex have really been the two most dominant drivers at this facility the last two seasons. This driver and team are good to advance into the next round of the Chase based on points, but nothing beats a win and automatic berth, and Harvick knows that. He'll be hungry for the win in the Hollywood Casino 400. His three victories this season on these style ovals make him a top contender this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch - At five races into the Chase for the Cup, Busch is 46 points to the good in the overall standings. His poor finish at Talladega last weekend didn't put him into jeopardy as we visit Kansas Speedway this weekend. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota may be one of the few drivers on track Sunday that can upset the duo of Harvick and Truex at this 1.5-mile oval. Busch won his first-career Kansas victory in 2016, and he's riding a seven-race Kansas Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. His speed has been good on these ovals this season with victories at Fort Worth, Charlotte and Chicago. The last two outings on intermediate ovals have just been good and not great. Fourth- and seventh-place finishes at Kentucky and Las Vegas are of minor concern. If there's a driver and team in the field that has the homerun potential to upset Truex and Harvick it's this Joe Gibbs Racing star.

Brad Keselowski - The Penske Racing star comes to the heartland oval this weekend with tons of motivation after his Talladega disappointment. Keselowski currently sits ninth in the Chase ladder and in jeopardy of being eliminated from the playoffs after this race. So the motivation and desire to win will be greatest with the No. 2 team than any of the other top contenders. Keselowski is normally pretty strong on these style tracks. He won at Kansas Speedway in 2011 and he finished runner-up here in early 2017. Keselowski won at the intermediate oval in Las Vegas to kick off the Chase a few weeks ago, and that's perhaps the best sign of all. He's our last winner on a cookie cutter oval. He's been a 50-percent Top-5 finisher this season on 1.5-mile ovals, and that's a very strong rate.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Joey Logano - Logano hasn't been quite as impressive as his teammate Brad Keselowski on these 1.5-mile tracks in 2018. However, the driver of the No. 22 Ford has been incredibly consistent. The Penske Racing star has seven Top-10 finishes in the eight intermediate oval races to-date. That includes the No. 22 team's strong fourth-place finish at Las Vegas to kick off the Chase for the Cup a few weeks ago. Logano's last start at Kansas Speedway yielded a brilliant third-place finish in May's KC Masterpiece 400. That effort has boosted his career Top-10 rate at Kansas to just 40-percent, but don't get too caught up in the historical figures here. This driver and team are running at top speed at these cookie cutter ovals in 2018.

Chase Elliott - Intermediate ovals have not been the best tracks for the No. 9 Chevrolet team this season. However, everything is turning to gold for Elliott of late. He's converted two victories and seven Top 10s in the last 10 races. Elliott is leading laps and racing among the leaders each week. This driver and team have finally arrived. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has five-career starts at Kansas Speedway, and two Top-10 finishes in those efforts to his credit. The last was Elliott's fourth-place finish in this event one year ago. We have to consider what this driver and team have been doing of late more than the track history this weekend. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is riding a tidal wave of momentum into Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400.

Kyle Larson - Aside from Joey Logano, no other driver in the series has been more consistent on the cookie cutter ovals than Larson this season. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has four Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes in the eight events to-date. While no wins have been in the offing on these tracks, the No. 42 Chevrolet has raced among the leaders and nabbed strong finishes. Larson is still alive, but in deep trouble in the Chase for the Cup, and only a win seems likely to get him into the Round of 8 of the Chase. It helps that Laron led 101 laps and finished a strong fourth here in May's KC Masterpiece 400. That shows that the potential for another great performance exists. The Chip Ganassi Racing star should deliver with the pressure of the Chase bearing down.

Ryan Blaney - The Penske Racing youngster will be on the hot seat for Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400. Blaney currently resides 10th overall in the Chase standings, and cannot afford a poor finish if he hopes to advance to the Round of 8. The good news for the No. 12 Ford team is that Blaney has had some eye-popping Kansas performances the last few seasons. He has three Top-5 finishes in his last five starts at this heartland oval. Blaney collected fourth- and third-place finishes at Kansas Speedway last season. The young driver led 54 laps here in May of this year, but was derailed by late contact with Kyle Larson while running fourth. Hopefully, he can keep the team's Ford pointed away from trouble this Sunday afternoon.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Kansas who can provide a solid finish

Kurt Busch - With his 14th-place finish at Talladega this past weekend, the Stewart Haas Racing star saw a potential win turn into a mediocre finish in less than a lap. That does nothing to diminish the fact that Busch dominated that race and led 101 laps. The veteran driver is 30 points to the good and should have no trouble advancing in the Chase. However, he'll want a good finish to be sure to advance. Intermediate ovals have been good to this driver this season with five Top-10 finishes in eight starts. That's a strong 63-percent rate. His recent Kansas stats are good as well. Busch has Top 10s in five of his last seven starts at Kansas Speedway, including his eighth-place finish there in the spring of this year.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin started the Chase off cold, and that was the reason for his elimination at the end of the Round of 16. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota seems to have turned things around the last two weeks. A brilliant runner-up finish at Dover, and a strong fourth-place finish at Talladega have propelled this driver and team back in the right direction. It's a good setup for an intermediate oval that's been good for the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran over the years. Hamlin has one win and seven Top 10s for his career at Kansas Speedway. His last two efforts at the facility have netted a pair of fifth-place finishes. Hamlin's last two outings on 1.5-mile ovals have been nothing to write home about, but we believe his current trajectory points towards another Top-10 finish.

Clint Bowyer - The Kansas homecoming should be a good one for Bowyer and the No. 14 SHR team. Following up on their runner-up Talladega finish will be a tough act to follow, but the veteran driver should do well in the Hollywood Casino 400. Bowyer's career stats at this facility are nothing special (30-percent Top-10 rate, 16.8 average finish). However, he's been pretty dialed-in on cookie cutter ovals this season. His Top 10s at Atlanta, Fort Worth and Chicago speak volumes, and his average finish of 12.1 on intermediate ovals is very consistent. Bowyer finished 15th here in May's KC Masterpiece 400, but we believe he'll be much sharper this time around. A good finish Sunday propels him into the next round of the Chase for the Cup.

Aric Almirola - Almirola will be hard pressed to follow up that surprising Talladega victory of last weekend. While trophies may not be in the cards for the driver of the No. 10 Ford as we visit Kansas, a good performance should be in the cards. The veteran driver has four Top 10s in the eight 1.5-mile oval races of 2018. His last two efforts have been eighth- and sixth-place finishes at Kentucky and Las Vegas. Almirola has excelled on intermediate ovals this season, and it's why he's moving on in the playoffs. The Stewart Haas Racing driver has five-career Top 10s in 13 starts at Kansas Speedway, so this has always been a successful track for the south Florida native. Almirola finished ninth in May's KC Masterpiece 400, so another good performance for this driver and team should be on tap.

Erik Jones - Until Jones crashed at Las Vegas to start the Chase, he had been nearly flawless on intermediate ovals this season. He won the pole at Vegas, so expectations were high for the No. 20 Toyota team, but luck didn't hold up. Still, the young driver has five Top-10 finishes this season on intermediate ovals. This will be Jones' fifth career start at Kansas Speedway, so he's beginning to employ some lessons learned. His start here in May netted a strong seventh-place finish in the KC Masterpiece 400. To this point, that has been the Joe Gibbs Racing driver's career-best performance at this oval. Jones was eliminated from the Chase after the Round of 16 was complete, so playoff implications are a moot point this weekend. This is a gut check start for the driver of the No. 20 Toyota.

Paul Menard - Menard has been the surprise performer of the field on intermediate ovals this season. Much of that credit is due to Wood Brothers Racing's affiliation with Penske Racing for cars, tech and support. That super-stable's excellence on these ovals is well documented, and Menard is enjoying that boost. The veteran driver of the No. 21 Ford has grabbed three Top 10s this season on the 1.5-mile ovals and a good average finish of 13.5. Menard finished sixth-place earlier this season at Kansas Speedway, so that bodes well for Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400. His last three efforts on intermediate ovals have yielded 13th-, 11th- and 10th-place finishes at Chicago, Kentucky and Las Vegas. You could do far worse than Menard deep of your fantasy racing bench this weekend.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson - With the news that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus will be splitting up next season, one has to wonder where Johnson's head is right now. Is he hopeful? Is he confused? Is he wondering about the future? A mishap at Talladega this past week almost deprived him of a Top-10 finish, but he still delivered. This week won't be quite as easy. Cookie cutter ovals have been a real puzzle for the seven-time champion this season. Johnson has just one Top-10 finish on these ovals in 2018, and an uncharacteristic 18.5 average finish. He was a very unimpressive 22nd-place at Las Vegas a few weeks ago to kick off the Chase. Johnson was equally unimpressive at Kansas Speedway in May when he came home 19th in the KC Masterpiece 400.

William Byron - The struggles of this young driver on cookie cutter ovals in 2018 is well documented. Byron has only one Top-10 finish in eight starts vs. four finishes outside the Top 25. That average is coming in at a disastrous 25.5. The intermediate ovals have been the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet's worst tracks on the circuit during his rookie year. This will be his second look at Kansas Speedway, so some improvement is expected. However, we should get our hopes to high. Byron crashed and finished 33rd here in May. It was one of three DNF's this season on cookie cutter ovals for this driver and team. The fact that Byron crashed and didn't finish at Las Vegas to begin the Chase shows that he's not really progressed on these style ovals as we wind down the season.

Darrell Wallace Jr. - Another young driver who has struggled tremendously this season with the very handling-sensitive intermediate ovals is Wallace. His eight starts on these style tracks has only yielded one Top-20 finish, and three finishes outside the Top 25. The average finish across the span checks in at a lowly 23.5. Wallace's Cup Series debut at Kansas Speedway earlier this season yielded a very closely matching 23rd-place finish. He's shown trouble keeping the lead lap this year on these ovals, and that's a recipe for a finish outside the Top 20. The driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet's last three efforts on these style tracks have netted 23rd-, 27th- and 38th-place finishes at Chicago, Kentucky and Las Vegas. It's best to avoid the Richard Petty Motorsports youngster in fantasy racing leagues this weekend.

Alex Bowman - After last week's crash at Talladega, Bowman comes limping into Kansas Speedway. He sits 12th overall in the Chase standings and at 68 points below the cutoff, he's all but eliminated from advancing in the playoffs. Only a Hail Mary style win would save his neck this Sunday. While it's fine to stew on those type of scenarios from time to time, it's better to check reality. The intermediate ovals have been tough venues for the No. 88 team this season. Bowman has just two Top 10s in eight starts at these style ovals in 2018. That checks in at a lowly 25-percent rate, and his average finish is a lofty 19.9. That almost perfectly mirrors his last start at Kansas, which was an 18th-place finish in May of this year.