HighPoint.com 400 Preview: The Tricky Triangle

With the conclusion of the New Hampshire event, we're now entering the hot summer months of racing as the series will pay a visit to Pocono Raceway for the first time in the 2023 season. The three-turn oval located in the mountains of Pennsylvania is unlike any other oval track on the circuit. Pocono has been referred to many times over the years as the oval that races like a road course. The extremely long straight-aways and the three distinctly different corners are the primary reason why we have more of a road course feel. You can't hit the set up on your stock car to optimize all three turns, so the crew chiefs have to make their cars as comfortable for the drivers as possible. This usually means making the car easier to turn in two of the three corners and sacrificing the other.  These factors make this track race not like an oval at all, but more like a road course due to the relatively flat banking and three distinctly different turns.  

Now that we've completed 20 races of the 26 that determines the field for the Chase for the Cup, we're on the downhill run towards NASCAR's playoff. The Tricky Triangle in Pocono makes a good, challenging track to mark the beginning of the stretch run in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. We're racing for the first and only time this year at Pocono Raceway and that's a break with history. The last couple seasons we've raced double headers at the huge Pennsylvania track since the pandemic. Prior to that, NASCAR raced its top touring division at Pocono Raceway twice a summer. We broke with that history and tradition last season and now race a lone, 400-mile event at Pocono.

Since we'll be racing just one time at Pocono Raceway we need to take a quick look at the loop stats for this unique facility. Coming off the races at Chicago, Atlanta and New Hampshire, we could see some shakeup in our driver group for this event. This track is so unlike any other on the circuit that we'll really need to focus on recent races at Pocono for this weekend's drivers. Current trends at this track should hold pretty true to form for this race, and we'll factor in the current hot streaks as needed as a predictive modifier. As you'll see in the table below we have an easily identifiable group of drivers that love to race on the three-turn, 2.5-mile Pennsylvania track. The loop stats shown below cover the last 18 years or 35 races at Pocono Raceway.

Pocono Raceway had been a NASCAR track up for grabs for years. With Kyle Busch's victory here in 2017, we saw the Toyota camp run away with five-straight victories at the Tricky Triangle. However, the last two seasons have seen the Pocono track tilt back towards more of a parity among manufacturers. All three manufacturers have won in the last five events at Pocono Raceway, and that will be an interesting statistic heading into this weekend's HighPoint.com 400. Since Toyota has been a bit down compared to Chevrolet this season, it will be interesting to see if there's a changing of the manufacturer guard at Pocono or if we will still stay with this trend of parity. With the ball squarely in Toyota's court, this weekend is a timely visit to Pocono Raceway for drivers of this brand. Toyota drivers have won sporadically this season with five victories in the 20 events to-date, and the larger ovals have been a bit of a puzzle for everyone in this camp.

With Chase Elliott's victory here last season, Chevrolet will be charged with defending their turf this Sunday afternoon. Elliott's win was the second Chevrolet victory in the last three events at Pocono Raceway. Toyota is fresh off the win this past weekend (Martin Truex Jr.) at New Hampshire and will carry the momentum into Pennsylvania this week. The best positioned Toyota drivers to challenge the Chevrolet camp will be Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin. They've been the top two performers for this camp most of the spring and summer and will continue to be top contenders going forward. We'll examine the recent trends as well some historical stats at Pocono and give you the drivers that you need to dominate this weekend's HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is on a roll. Truex has won or finished runner-up in three of the last five events and moved from fourth- to first-place in the driver points during this span. Coming off a dominant victory at the Magic Mile, what will the veteran driver do for an encore? Truex loves the Pocono triangle with two-career victories and 14 Top-10 finishes (42-percent). With over 230 laps led at this facility, mostly since the 2015 season, Truex is used to racing up front at the Tricky Triangle. The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been a big performer on the larger ovals this season, however, Pocono is different. The road course "feel" and Truex's current momentum could propel him to his fourth win of the season in Sunday's HighPoint.com 400. 

Kyle Busch – Busch's four victories at Pocono since the 2017 season make him one of the more dominant performers at this track in its recent history. The Richard Childress Racing star nabbed a win and a runner-up finish in the Pocono doubleheader two seasons ago, and he led a dominating 63 laps in this event one year ago. However, Busch's runner-up finish would be erased after post-race technical inspection revealed a critical violation. Still, you can't argue with results and Busch has stacked them up at the Tricky Triangle in recent seasons. With a career 31-percent Top-5 rate at Pocono and close to 600 laps led, this big triangle has been a steady producer for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. The veteran is looking to shake off last week's disappointment at Loudon, and this is the perfect rebound opportunity.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin leads the driver rating in the table above thanks to his six-career Pocono wins. Two of those have come since the 2019 season along with one runner-up finish at Pocono. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is just as sharp at this track as a veteran as he was as a young NASCAR star over 15 years ago. In this event one year ago, Hamlin seemingly won his seventh Pocono trophy, but a post-race inspection would find a critical violation and erase the win. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota will have redemption on his mind as he straps in for Sunday's HighPoint.com 400. Hamlin loves racing at this unique oval and his incredible 64-percent Top-10 rate and over 800 laps led at this track speaks to his excellence at Pocono Raceway. 

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star is still trying to find his dominant, race-winning form in 2023 and it could get a kick start this weekend at Pocono Raceway. Larson has never won at the Pennsylvania oval, but he has finished runner-up there twice in his career and has three Top-5 finishes in his last four Pocono starts. The Top-10 rate stands at a strong 60-percent for Larson at Pocono Raceway. Coming off a strong third-place finish at New Hampshire this past week, the veteran driver would seem to be in good position coming to Pocono. Larson has been strong on the intermediate ovals this season, now he just needs to step up his game on the larger ovals to propel him into the playoffs.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is still not in race-winning, championship contending mode but his prospects for an uptick in performance are good. He's coming off a strong, Top-5 performance at the Magic Mile this past week and looking to carry that momentum into Pocono Raceway. Harvick is a one-time Pocono winner (2020) and he has five Top 10's in his last six starts at the track coming into this Sunday's HighPoint.com 400. The recent streak brings Harvick's Pocono Top-10 rate to a strong 51-percent. We haven't had a lot of big ovals in the schedule thus far this season, but a good comp would be his Top-5 finish earlier in the season at Fontana, which is a two-mile track. Given Harvick's overall proficiency at Pocono Raceway, he should easily crack the Top 10 in Sunday's 400-mile Pocono battle.      

Chase Elliott – Elliott is still trying to get into a groove this season after missing several early-campaign events with a broken leg. Pocono Raceway could be the opportunity that gets the No. 9 Chevrolet team on a roll. Elliott has never won at the unique three-turn oval, but he has posted a strong 62-percent Top-10 rate at the Tricky Triangle. In this event one year ago, he was promoted to the win after the post-race disqualification of both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. It was Elliott's first-career Pocono victory, but was a bit hollow due to the technicality of being promoted to the win after post-race penalties. This is a critical event in the run-up to the playoffs. The remainder of Elliott's season could hinge on what happens in Sunday's HighPoint.com 400 and he'll definitely race like it.    

Christopher Bell – Last week's New Hampshire heartbreak kid will look to rally as the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Pennsylvania this week. Bell's disappointment will fade quickly as a good performance at Pocono is likely in the cards for the No. 20 Toyota team. Bell has had some bad luck, but no lack of speed on the big ovals this season. If we go back to his developmental years we see a truck series win for Bell at Pocono Raceway as well as an Xfinity Series Top-5 performance. Bell knows how to navigate this three-turn raceway. The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a pair of Top-5 finishes in the Cup Series at this track in five starts (40-percent) and one of those came in this event one year ago, accompanied by 14 laps led. Bell will be a top performer at Pocono Raceway.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has been turning his season around little by little of late. He rides a two-race Top-10 streak into Pocono and has been performing well at some of his favorite tracks. Keselowski has been a top performer at Pocono Raceway for years so this is the perfect follow up race to his New Hampshire success. The Roush Fenway Keselowski veteran has 25-career starts at the Tricky Triangle, one win, 15 Top-10 finishes (60-percent) and a strong 10.7 average finish. Those stats are not lightly dismissed despite some of his inconsistencies the last two seasons. In just the last seven Pocono Raceway events alone, Keselowski has nabbed five Top-10 finishes including second- and third-place efforts. The HighPoint.com 400 is the perfect race to keep the No. 6 Ford team on a roll heading into August.    

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Pocono & solid upside

William Byron – Byron has been a man on a mission this season with four victories already to this point in the season and a robust second-place standing in the points. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has also enjoyed some of that success on the bigger ovals with a recent win at Atlanta and Top 10 at Talladega. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has had good stats at Pocono Raceway with a 56-percent Top-10 rate in nine starts, 70 laps led and one pole position. He's finished 12th-place in the last two Pocono events, so that's the reason we've rolled with the sleeper tag this Sunday. However, Byron brings pretty high-end ceiling to the table and has shown the capability to nab surprise performances in 2023.

Daniel Suarez – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has had some sporadic success at the Tricky Triangle over the years. Suarez nabbed a brilliant runner-up finish here in 2018 and last season he nabbed an equally impressive third-place finish at Pocono Raceway. Those are two of four total Top 10's he's collected at the three-turn oval. Suarez has flexed his muscles on the big ovals this season with two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes, most recently a runner-up finish at Atlanta. We believe the No. 99 Chevrolet team has what it takes to stay on a roll in the HighPoint.com 400. Suarez has shown in the past he can navigate this challenging track and his recent results are very encouraging.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing driver has been good on the big tracks this season and are a good indicator heading into the HighPoint.com 400. With one Top 5 and four Top 10's for a strong 10.4 average finish, this driver and team have flourished this season on the large ovals. Blaney is a one-time Pocono Raceway winner and has a steady 46-percent Top-10 rate over 13 starts. He qualified well in this event one year ago (sixth on starting grid), however, Blaney crashed late in that event. Still, the 13.1 career average finish at the Tricky Triangle is another good indicator for this weekend. We believe the Penske Racing youngster is a good fantasy racing candidate for Sunday's 400-mile battle at Pocono Raceway.

Alex Bowman – The big tracks have yielded some success for Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team. He won the pole at Daytona earlier this season and finished fifth in the Daytona 500. Bowman also grabbed a steady eighth-place finish at the two-mile Fontana oval. With an average finish of 13.2 so far this season on the big tracks, Bowman has been a steady producer. Pocono Raceway has been a bit hit-or-miss over his career, but it's been trending in the right direction for this driver in recent starts. Bowman's last four Pocono finishes are ninth-, first-, seventh- and 11th-place for a stellar 7.0 average finish over the recent span. The veteran driver should give us a good performance in the HighPoint.com 400.

Chris Buescher –  The one-time Pocono winner (2016) is a sneaky good fantasy play at the Tricky Triangle. The Roush Fenway Keselowski veteran has even qualified well in his last two Pocono starts (pole and fifth on grid) even though he didn't get the results he deserved in those two starts. Buescher has been consistent and competitive on the large ovals in 2023 with a pair of Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes for a decent 14.0 average finish. He's even led 76 total laps on these big tracks with 39 alone coming most recently at Atlanta. We believe Buescher and the No. 17 Ford team have what it takes to crack the Top 15 Sunday at Pocono and even possibly break through to the Top 10.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has just two-career Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts at the Tricky Triangle. However, the great news is that both of those performances have come in his last two starts in Pennsylvania. Wallace finished fifth-place in this event in 2021 and he finished a strong eighth-place in this event last season. The 23XI Racing veteran wasn't a major threat to win either of those starts, but the No. 23 Toyota team seemingly figured this place out. Wallace qualified well in both those events (seventh-place in each) and converted that good starting track position into day-long runs inside the Top 10. He hasn't shown us much on the big tracks this season, but Pocono could be where that pivots the other direction.       

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – This has been a lean season on the big tracks. Finishes of ninth-, third-, 13th-, 23rd- and 35th-place have been Chastain's body of work at Daytona, Fontana, Atlanta, Talladega and Atlanta. The average finish is checking in around 16.6. While the comp of superspeedways vs. Pocono are debatable, it's clear that Chastain's luck hasn't been good outside the intermediate and small ovals. As it pertains to Pocono Raceway, the Trackhouse Racing star hasn't had much luck here over the years. In seven-career starts Chastain has no Top-10 finishes and six finishes outside the Top 25 for a disappointing 29.7 average finish. We believe this driver and team are simply too risky to deploy in fantasy lineups this week.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a one-time Pocono winner, but his consistency at this three-turn, 2.5-mile track has been spotty over the years. Logano's 10 Top-10 finishes in 27-career starts works out to a questionable 37-percent rate. That's a lower percentage than we like to see in star drivers. Logano has only reached the Top 10 in two of his last six Pocono starts (33-perecent), so that's even lower than his career average. In this event one year ago the driver of the No. 22 Ford experienced a tough slog and struggled to a 20th-place finish in the M&M's Fan Appreciation 400. Logano's last two starts on big ovals (Talladega & Atlanta) have netted 30th- and 17th-place finishes. Not a good look coming into Sunday's 400-mile Pocono battle.

Ryan Preece – Preece has been on the struggle bus this season and there's little sign that it's stopping to let him off anytime soon. The big ovals have been perplexing with four finishes outside the Top 25 and an inflated 31.0 average finish. Preece's No. 41 Ford was so poor this past weekend at the Loudon short track, that the veteran driver complained it was "undriveable" over the radio and fell one lap down to the leaders by the checkered flag. Preece's six-career Cup Series starts at Pocono Raceway have only netted one Top-10 finish, and has registered a disappointing 22.7 average finish across the span. We believe he's a low-reward fantasy driver for this weekend and a name to cross off the list for the HighPoint.com 400.

Ty Gibbs – The rookie driver has had it tough on the big ovals this season. Outside of an early-season ninth-place finish at Atlanta, Gibbs has registered three finishes outside the Top 25. The average finish is coming in around 23.0. This will be just his second-career Cup Series start at the Tricky Triangle. Gibbs made a start in this event one year ago and earned a surprising 16th-place finish in relief driving duty in the No. 45 Toyota. That was a very good car and was running very well at the time. So we have to put that performance in context just a bit. The No. 54 JGR Toyota team isn't in nearly as good a place right now. With just five Top 10's on the season and finishes of 34th- and 27th-place the last two races, Gibbs is struggling a good bit coming into Pennsylvania this week. We believe he's a "pass" for Pocono Raceway.