Grant Park 220 Preview: Street Course History

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series will make a little history and stage the first-ever event on a metropolitan street course. The track is a 12-turn, 2.14-mile long circuit that is laid out on the streets of Chicago, Illinois. The area in use is the iconic Grant Park location in downtown Chicago which encompasses Michigan Avenue, Lake Shore Drive, the Lakefront Green park and the unmistakable Buckingham Fountain. This very recognizable part of downtown will set the backdrop for this interesting and first-ever race. The event is 100 laps, divided into three stages of 20 laps, 25 laps and 55 laps. Top speeds are limited by the highly-technical layout and 12 challenging turns, many including 90 degree arcs.  The circuit is somewhat reminiscent of the street courses that both IndyCar and IMSA use in cities like Detroit, Long Beach and St. Petersburg. While those series have extensive experience racing on city streets, this will be NASCAR's first go-around at this type of event. NASCAR will now add its name to the list of world-class racing series that compete on street circuits. 

Since this is a completely new race, at a completely new course, we have no historical loop stats to examine this weekend. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage.  However, we're not completely without some numbers. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated the past two seasons on the various road circuits of the Cup Series. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on winding circuits. The data will be over the past two seasons, or eight races, so it will be fresh statistics. In the table below are the driver's standard stats at Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International, Road America, Circuit of the Americas, the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit and the Charlotte Roval over the past two seasons, sorted by average finish.

 This weekend we will witness a little history being made. For the first time ever, NASCAR will compete on a metropolitan street circuit. The Chicago Street Course is a purpose-built temporary circuit and layout for stock car racing. The idea was conceived thanks to iRacing. In 2021 the layout was arranged for the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series. That event was a success for iRacing, but it also kicked off interest in running the race in reality on the streets of Chicago. The sanctioning body got to work right away and after several months of planning with the city of Chicago, the layout was confirmed and the event was announced on July 19, 2022.

The last several Cup Series seasons have had an emphasis on road course racing. There are six events in the calendar this season, up from the typical three we've seen in recent past. This added road course action will favor a number of drivers who thrive at this style of racing. As for this inaugural event at Chicago, the drivers who have exceptional road racing skills will have the best opportunity to succeed, and those who don't will struggle.  We believe the statistical table above will be our greatest aide in evaluating drivers this weekend and projecting potential performance. As with any new race, and certainly on a tight, temporary street course, we'll have a few surprises and upsets as well. We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Grant Park 220 on the streets of Chicago.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster won earlier this season at COTA, and that is one of three road circuit victories in the past two seasons for Reddick. Over the last 10 events on the winding courses, he's led a combined 126 laps and cracks the Top-5 at a strong 50-percent rate. When it comes to qualifying, Reddick is a group nearly all to himself. With one pole position, two outside poles and a stellar 6.7 average start position in these style races, the driver of the No. 45 Toyota has excellent skills behind the steering wheel. That good starting track position is a major factor in his ability to run up front and stay up front for the entirety of these races. Reddick will have a major advantage over most of the field in this first race on the streets of Chicago.  

Chase Elliott – Elliott has not won on a road course in the past two seasons, but he's a career seven-time winner in this style of racing. 39-percent of his career Cup Series wins have come on road circuits. That's an incredible percentage and a real testament to Elliott's skill in road racing. Despite being winless the past two seasons, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been really close with one runner-up finish and a 56-percent Top-5 rate. Elliott's 144 laps led on these style tracks in the last 10 events leads all drivers. His most recent outing at Sonoma netted 7 laps led and a strong fifth-place finish in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. Elliott has the skills and experience to pull off a dominant performance and win this inaugural Grant Park 220.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is our most recent road course victor. Truex led a dominating 51 laps and took the win at Sonoma just a few weeks ago. That effort marked his fifth-career victory on winding road circuits. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota now has two wins already this season and is looking more like the Truex we've grown to admire in the past. As an interesting side note, the veteran driver was one of the competitors in the field that raced the Chicago Street Course layout virtually in iRacing two seasons ago. After a wild, attrition-filled 51-lap event, Truex would stay out of the trouble and earn a strong fifth-place finish. Take that experience with a grain of salt, but it is valuable experience with the course layout.  

Kyle Busch – Busch has been a hit-or-miss driver over his career on the road courses, but he seems to have swung to the better extreme most recently. The Richard Childress Racing star has earned third-, second- and third-place finishes in his last three road course events, dating back to last October's Charlotte Roval event. Only four of his 63-career wins have come on road circuits, but he does have that potential. In addition, Busch has won four-career road course victories in the Xfinity Series as well over his storied career. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has three wins already this season, so Busch is a threat to reach victory lane each weekend the Cup Series competes. This unique first-ever event on the streets of Chicago could easily tilt his way, considering how well he's racing right now.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – Larson has been bit off a boom or bust driver on road circuits in recent events, but he's still managed a robust 50-percent Top-10 rate in his last 10 starts on the winding circuits. In addition to those Top 10's the Hendrick Motorsports star has also grabbed a victory at the Charlotte Roval and a victory at Watkins Glen during that span. As prone as he is to surprise and dominate, Larson can also have a tendency to disappear when it comes to road course events. His three finishes outside the Top 25 in the last 10 events of this style dampen our expectations a bit, but Larson still manages a strong 14.4 average finish. The fact that he carries Top-5 and wining potential in these races should put him solidly on your fantasy racing radar screen and anchoring the solid plays list at Chicago.

Chris Buescher – Not only is Buescher two-for-two this season in Top 10's on road course style tracks, but he's also nabbed a mind-numbing eight Top-10 finishes in his last 10 road racing events. The Roush Fenway Keselowski veteran has been one of the most consistent drivers in this form of racing for the past year-and-a-half. Buescher piloted the No. 17 Ford to strong fourth-place finish at Sonoma just a few weeks ago, so that really demonstrates his potential for this first-ever street course race in the Windy City. While Buescher is not a major threat to win, we expect he'll be one of the faces battling hard just outside the top contenders. He should be a near lock to grab a Top-10 finish in this inaugural Grant Park 220.

Joey Logano – Logano is looking to rebound from a subpar outing at Nashville Superspeedway this past Sunday, and the street race in Chicago should be just the ticket to get him back on a roll. The Penske Racing star grabbed an impressive third-place finish at the Sonoma road circuit just a few weeks ago and that was one of three Top 10's in his last five starts on winding road circuits. Much like Kyle Larson, Logano can have his power outages in this style of racing. The driver of the No. 22 Ford can be spectacular or a flame out in this style of racing. That's a very good reason to watch closely how Logano performs in practice and qualifying on Saturday. Good practice laps and good starting track position will be a good indicator of his potential on the Chicago Street Course.

Ross Chastain – Coming off the big win at Nashville Superspeedway, Chastain gets a promotion to the solid plays list this week. He seems to be heating up, and this Chicago street races is just unique enough to keep this unique driver on a roll. In the last 10 road course events the Trackhouse Racing star has a win at COTA last season and five Top-10 finishes on various circuits. Most recently, Chastain has been a Top-10 performer in his two road racing events of this season. He nabbed a strong fourth-place finish in his defense at COTA and a steady 10th-place finish at Sonoma more recently. Chastain does carry a bit of a caution tag due to his aggressive driving style, but we really feel he's heating up right now and has undeniable high-ceiling potential in the Grant Park 220.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Already a two-time winner on Cup Series road circuits in his young career in NASCAR's top division, Bell has the obvious gift of road course racing. His eight-career Top 10's in 17 starts on these style tracks also work out to a steady 47-percent Top-10 rate. Bell's last three road racing events have netted a win at the Charlotte Roval last October and a steady ninth-place finish at Sonoma just a few weeks ago. The young driver has demonstrated that he can qualifying well in these road races and has the potential to lead laps and challenge for wins. While the Chicago Street Course is a bit of uncharted waters, we believe Bell is equipped with the skills to succeed. We expect to see him running among the Top 10 Sunday at the checkered flag.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has had a tough, inconsistent season to this point, but it's turned quite positive of late. With finishes of 14th-, sixth- and 10th-place in the last three events, he's whittled his points position down from 24th- to 19th-place during the span. The sixth-place came at Sonoma a few weeks ago and was his second Top 10 in the last three road racing events dating back to last October. Allmendinger's prowess in road racing precedes him. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet has two-career wins on Cup Series road circuits and a 50-percent Top-10 rate in this form of competition. The winding tracks are by far his best facilities on the Cup Series circuit.   

Austin Cindric – Although he had a tough performance in his most recent outing on a road course (25th-place at Sonoma), we have to remember how good the Penske Racing youngster is on these style tracks. A quick check of his career Cup Series stats shows that half of his 12 Top 10's to this point in his career have come on NASCAR road circuits. While this season has been particularly tough on the No. 2 Ford team, we're reminded by Cindric's sixth-place finish at COTA back in the spring of his skill in this style of racing. The newness of this facility and uniqueness of the style of competition will have field-equalizing effects in the Grant Park 220. Cindric stands a good chance of cracking the Top 10 on Sunday afternoon.    

William Byron – While Byron doesn't typically display dominant characteristics in road racing, he's good enough to give some lower level fantasy consideration. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has never won on a Cup Series road circuit in 23 starts, but Byron has registered a noteworthy 11.4 average start position. That's actually better than he qualifies on the various size ovals in NASCAR's top division. Byron also has 150 laps led in road racing, which shows he does run up front a good bit. He's shown what that skill is capable of with his pole position in COTA earlier this season and fifth-place finish in that event. More recently, Byron was a Top-15 finisher at Sonoma. He carries a certain value into this first-ever Chicago Street Course race.

Alex Bowman – While he's still trying to get into the groove after missing three races with a back injury a few weeks ago, we believe Bowman will be a high-ceiling driver in the inaugural Grant Park 220. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has finished second- and third-place in his last two COTA starts and he was a Top-15 finisher a few weeks ago at Sonoma Raceway. That performance is pretty indicative of Bowman as he's generally a Top-15 finisher in these road course events. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has a near-40-percent Top-10 rate on these tracks and his 15.1 career average finish is even four or five spots better than Bowman's average finish on most ovals.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – We don't typically think of Stenhouse when it comes to road course racing. His career-long numbers are terrible in this style of competition. However, his most recent work is hard to ignore. The last three starts for Stenhouse on these style tracks have netted: 19th-, seventh- and 12th-place finishes for a robust average finish of 12.7 across the three-race span. That's nearly 10-spots better than his career average finish on these style tracks. It's hard to identify why this is happening with the No. 47 Chevrolet team other than Stenhouse is just having a strong season. He's currently a surprising 14th-place in the driver standings and on pace to possibly eclipse his career-best nine Top-10 finishes in a season. If you're looking for a low-percentage (usage) driver in the pool that could outperform expectations, Stenhouse is your guy.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is your "homerun or strikeout" prospect for the Chicago Street Course. As an example, his most recent outing at Sonoma yielded a pole position and 33 laps led. However, the Joe Gibbs Racing star would find trouble and crash, finishing a disappointing 36th-place. That's been much the story of Hamlin's career in road course racing. He does have one-career victory (Watkins Glen), but his 40-percent Top-10 rate and 16.0 average finish in this style of racing isn't exactly solid as a rock. Add in the wrinkle of racing on a tight street course as opposed to a wider open environment (more forgiving to error) like Sonoma or COTA and you have the recipe for the No. 11 Toyota team having an unfortunate encounter with a wall or other course-lining barrier. 

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last 10 road racing events, however, it's the disappointments that far outnumber the successes. Over the same span, the 23XI Racing veteran has five DNF's on road circuits and that has inflated Wallace's average finish to 23.7. In his start earlier this season at COTA, Wallace qualified reasonably well, but ran into trouble just 10 laps into the event and crashed. He would finish a disappointing 37th-place that afternoon. It's that kind of risk that you take on with your fantasy lineups when you roll the driver of the No. 23 Toyota on a road circuit. The challenges that the Chicago Street Course will present will be a major obstacle to his success.

Aric Almirola –  Not much has gone right for Almirola and the No. 10 SHR team this season. With just one Top 10 so far and coming off a subpar 25th-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway, this is not the week to be shaking down a new race track. While NASCAR will give the teams some practice and qualifying laps this weekend, we're still reserved on Almirola's chances. He finished a disappointing 30th at the COTA circuit earlier this season and 28th-place more recently at Sonoma Raceway.  The veteran driver of the No. 10 Ford has just a 6-percent Top-10 rate on these style tracks and his 21.7 career average finish on road courses is nothing to get excited about. 

Daniel Suarez – Despite winning last season at Sonoma Raceway, Suarez has struggled in more recent road races. His last three starts on these style tracks have netted: 36th-, 27th- and 22nd-place finishes. The most recent finish was his defense of the victory a year earlier at Sonoma Raceway. That performance was pretty shocking considering how strong the No. 99 Chevrolet team were at Sonoma last season. Over the past 10 road course races, Suarez has three Top 10's, which is a bit lower figure than we'd like to see. Additionally, his 19.8 average finish over that same span is a bit higher than we'd like to see. We believe the Trackhouse Racing veteran is a risky fantasy racing prospect for the Grant Park 220.