Goodyear 400 Preview: Track Too Tough to Tame

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval, and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit. It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between. The course has two distinctly different sets of turns. Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2. This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex. You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car. All this combined with the 23 – 25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns. On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility. Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straightaway as they accelerate coming out of the turns. This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track. Considering that we just came from the multi-groove racing at Kansas, we're in for a big change this weekend. The rim-riding action of Darlington this Sunday afternoon can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

Nearly all the tracks that the NASCAR Cup Series has visited to this point will not be of much help in figuring out Darlington Raceway this weekend. While Darlington is considered a super speedway, the racing is not like any other super speedway on the circuit. So for this race, the loop data from Darlington Raceway will be an extremely important component in developing a list of fantasy racing drivers. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle as well, but historical trends should run pretty true. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 18 years or 24 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there appears to be a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington. However, one brand (Chevrolet) has reeled off three Darlington victories in a row and turned what was a track of parity into a solidly bowtie brand facility. Chevrolet halted an 11-race winless streak at the Track Too Tough to Tame with Erik Jones' victory here in September of 2022. Since then, William Byron and Kyle Larson have added their names to the list of recent Darlington victors and put the bowtie brand squarely in control of the Track Too Tough to Tame.

If Ford hopes to get back into victory lane at Darlington Raceway, those hopes will largely ride with Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Ford drivers have yet to find victory lane in 2024, but these three veterans would seem best positioned to pull off that improbable win if it does happen for the blue ovals. If Toyota has aspirations to get back into the Darlington win column, it will most likely be one of the Gibbs drivers such as Denny Hamlin or Martin Truex Jr. The two have combined for six-career victories at Darlington Raceway and each have the current potential to add to that tally. The picks below are our best bets for fantasy racing success at Darlington Raceway.    

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson had never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, until last season's Cook Out Southern 500. The Hendrick Motorsports star added to his three runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes at the South Carolina oval with a convincing Darlington win last September. Larson has led over 750 laps for his career at Darlington Raceway, so it had been a real frustration for him until that big win. He now sports a sparkling 9.4 average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame along with an astonishing 50-percent Top-5 rate. The Hendrick Motorsports star loves the high-groove style of racing at this track, so a second Darlington win could be in the offing this Sunday afternoon.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a four-time Darlington winner and sports a strong 70-percent Top-10 rate at this track. The 8.4-career average finish leads all active drivers at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The last of Hamlin's four victories at the South Carolina oval came as recently as 2021 and he finished an impressive runner-up there in September of 2022. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been heating up over the last month and it all culminated in his convincing third victory of the season at Dover a couple weeks ago. We don't believe for a second that Hamlin is done just yet. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is just too good at Darlington Raceway and he's almost always a threat to win here each time the NASCAR Cup Series visits South Carolina.   

William Byron – Riding a three-race Darlington Top-10 streak into this weekend, Byron has to be confident ahead of Sunday's Goodyear 400. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has won three races already this season and the campaign is only a third complete. He brings that type of home run potential to a variety of different tracks. Byron now has 11-career starts at Darlington Raceway with one pole position, one win (this event last season) and five Top 10's in his last seven visits. Last season alone, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet grabbed one win and one fourth-place finish. Hendrick Chevrolet horsepower has proven to be king at Darlington the past couple seasons, so this driver and team have to be high on our list. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex's Darlington history shows two wins and 10 Top 10's in 23-career starts or a steady 44-percent rate. He's led over 900 laps at this South Carolina oval, including 145 laps in this event one year ago. Truex has been heating up of late and boasts a pair of Top 5's in the last two races coming to South Carolina this week. His recent third-place finish on the high banks of Dover a couple weeks ago are a good indicator coming to the Track Too Tough to Tame. The veteran driver's experience and long history at this challenging raceway will be a real plus this Sunday afternoon. The No. 19 Toyota team has to be considered one of the top contenders to win the Goodyear 400.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has overcome a slow start to this season and has charged all the way to fifth in the point standings after Kansas. Now Reddick visits one of his favorite mid-sized ovals on the circuit. In nine-career starts at the South Carolina track, Reddick has nabbed two runner-up finishes, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes. The two runner-up and three Top 5's are noteworthy as they all have come in the last four races at the egg-shaped oval. He now boasts and average finish of 11.3 at the Track Too Tough to Tame, and that puts Reddick at the upper tier of drivers in terms of performance here. The 23XI Racing youngster is on a roll and visiting one of his favorite ovals this weekend.                                  

Brad Keselowski – The one-career Darlington win and 55-percent career Top-10 rate at the South Carolina oval speak volumes. In addition, Keselowski rides a three-race Darlington Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action. These recent efforts have lowered the owner/driver's average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame to a razor sharp 11.4. That average finish spread over 20 starts is a very impressive statistic. With just a single DNF in those 20 starts, there's a certain measure of security that comes with a Keselowski fantasy racing start at Darlington Raceway. He's completed 98-percent of the almost 7,000 laps that have been raced there since 2009. Keselowski finishes on the lead lap and he puts it in the Top 10 more often than not.        

Chris Buescher – Buescher turned around a four-race Top-10 drought with his stellar runner-up finish this past weekend at Kansas Speedway. He led 54 laps and battled for the win right to the finish line with Kyle Larson. The Roush Fenway Keselowski veteran would get beat by the narrowest of margins, but it signals Buescher is back and ready to reinsert into fantasy lineups. As it relates to Darlington Raceway, he's not great career-wise at this challenging oval, but he's been very strong in recent visits. Four of his last six visits to Darlington have netted Top-10 finishes. That 67-percent Top-10 rate is well above his career 31-percent rate. Also, Buescher finished a Darlington career-best third-place in last September's Cook Out Southern 500.      

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star is now six races into his rebound from a slow start to the season and he's getting sharper with each week. Elliott recently earned a Top-5 finish on the high banks of Dover and that's a good sign heading into the Goodyear 400. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has a steady 50-percent career Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway, but lesser impressive 17.0 average finish. The inflated average comes from four DNF's he's endured at the Track Too Tough to Tame. We don't expect Elliott to be a big lap leader or stage winner this Sunday afternoon, but he should have little trouble sticking inside the Top 10 and mixing it up among the lead pack.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has had a long, tough run of races at Darlington Raceway. With just three Top 10's in 14-career starts, most fantasy racing players will likely pass on the driver of the No. 12 Ford. However, last season seemed to be a turning point at this track for this driver and team. Blaney earned a pair of steady ninth-place finishes at the Track Too Tough to Tame. He's always qualified reasonably well here, but the finishes have been slow to come, until last season. Those last looks at the Darlington track are what we're most interested in. Blaney has performed well of late and his seventh-place finish recently on the high banks of Dover are likely a good indicator heading into the Goodyear 400. 

Kyle Busch – Busch's recent inconsistency seemed to be washed away with his Top 10 at Fort Worth a few weeks ago and his Top-5 finish at Dover. Up to that point in the season, the No. 8 Chevrolet team had struggled to find much consistency. Busch is a one-time winner at Darlington Raceway, although it came way back earlier in his career in 2008. Looking back at his history at Darlington, we see a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate and nearly 900-career laps led with a respectable average finish of 13.3. He claimed steady seventh- and 11th-place finishes there last season in his debut with RCR at the South Carolina oval. We have a lot of expectations for Busch and the No. 8 team this Sunday afternoon.

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has seemingly turned things around this season. His recent Top 10's at tracks like Martinsville, Talladega and Dover show that the No. 48 team is performing well right now across a variety of tracks. Bowman doesn't have a good career record at Darlington Raceway with just a 25-percent Top-10 rate and 19.6 average finish. However, he did finish 10th-place in this event one year ago, and that's his third Top 10 at the Track Too Tough to Tame since the 2020 season. When given good cars, Bowman can perform well at this track. A good example would be his 41 laps led and runner-up Darlington finish in 2020. Bowman is getting good cars right now, so a good performance should be expected at Darlington.        

Bubba Wallace – After many struggles at this challenging oval earlier in his career, Wallace has really taken a liking to Darlington Raceway the past couple seasons. The 23XI Racing veteran rides a three-race Darlington Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. Those ninth-, fifth- and seventh-place finishes work out to a stellar 7.0 average finish across the three-race span. Wallace and the No. 23 team have had some tough luck of late with crashes at Talladega and Dover, but he was racing well up to that point. A good performance with his 17th-place finish at Kansas Speedway this past weekend proves that he's turned things back in the right direction.

Noah Gragson – After a slow start to the season, the 25-year-old driver has seemingly figured things out at the No. 10 Ford team. Gragson has nabbed five Top 10's this seaon with three of them coming in the last three races. He's now moving in on the Top 20 in points and hoping to make a run at a playoff berth this season. Gragson will be making just his second-career Cup Series start at Darlington Raceway this Sunday. He registered a subpar 26th-place finish in his debut at the track last season with his former team Legacy Motor Club. Gragson has stellar Xfinity Series stats at the Track Too Tough to Tame with two wins, one runner-up finish and seven Top 10's in seven starts. It's clear he understands how to race this challenging oval.

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has cooled off a bit from his early-season heater, but showed a great sign a couple weeks ago with his Top-10 finish on the high banks of Dover. Now the young driver sets his sights on another challenging track, Darlington Raceway. Gibbs has three-career Cup starts at this oval, so the experience is beginning to build up. While he has just one Top-15 finish in those efforts, the time to begin improving is now. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota earned a steady sixth-place finish in his last Xfinity Series start at the Track Too Tough to Tame in 2022. Gibbs is very talented and a quick study behind the wheel. We expect a career-best Darlington finish for him in Sunday's Goodyear 400.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran is struggling to find consistency this season. The tracks that he's performed well at the past couple seasons have not yielded the same results in 2024. Chastain has just four Top-10 finishes to this point and rides a six-race Top-10 drought into Darlington. He'll look to get back on track in the Goodyear 400, but he'll face some challenges to pull that off. Darlington Raceway has been tough on the veteran driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet with just two Top 10's in nine-career starts or 22-percent Top-10 rate. The 20.8 average finish is also a good bit higher than we'd like to see. Chastain has crashed out of two of his last four starts at Darlington despite leading 121 laps over that span. He's a high risk driver to deploy in your lineups this weekend.

Christopher Bell – Bell's recent struggles have been difficult to understand. Despite winning earlier this season at the Phoenix oval, he's been mired in a funk ever since. He snapped a five-race Top-10 drought at Kansas this past weekend and looking for any answers to end the slump. His recent disappointing qualifying performance, crash and DNF at the high banks of Dover are an ominous sign heading to Darlington Raceway. Bell has nine-career starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame and just two Top-10 finishes for a lowly 22-percent Top-10 rate. His last appearance at the track, he won the pole position and led 40 laps, but faded to a disappointing 23rd-place finish in last September's Cook Out Southern 500.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has always had his struggles at Darlington Raceway. In 12-career starts he has just one Top-10 finish and just three Top-15 finishes. That average finish is working out to a lofty 23.9 across his career. Last season alone was pretty difficult for the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team. Suarez crashed out and finished 34th-place in both Darlington races last year. Despite winning earlier this season at Atlanta, this driver and team have been on the struggle bus ever since. Suarez has claimed just one Top-10 finish since that early-season victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Given his current status and his lack of performance at Darlington, it's best to stay clear of the No. 99 team this weekend.  

Corey Lajoie – Outside of his superspeedway performances this season, Lajoie has struggled to get any traction on the mid-sized and smaller race tracks. The Spire Motorsports veteran surprisingly led 33 laps at Dover recently, but that was due mostly to race flow and pit strategy. He would go onto fade to 21st-place in that event. Lajoie has 12-career starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame and no Top-10 finishes to his credit. In fact, he has just one Top-15 finish to his credit at Darlington Raceway. The average finish of 27.1 at this facility tells the story. Lajoie qualifies poorly here (29.0 average start) and he struggles to maintain the lead lap, which he has only done twice in his 12 starts. Save Lajoie's starts for upcoming Daytona and Talladega events.