Go Bowling at the Glen Preview: Road Racing Twist

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series goes road racing for the first time in several weeks and visits Watkins Glen International for this next-to-last road course event in this 2024 season with its annual running of the Go Bowling at the Glen. The Watkins Glen circuit is an 11-turn, winding road course with many long straights terminated by 90 degree turns. The event is 90 laps on the almost 2.5-mile course, divided into stages of 20, 20 and 50 laps. Top speeds are close to 160 mph which is very unusual for a typical road circuit, and this is due mainly to the long straights which occur at three places on the track. Horsepower and aero-handling are key factors for this race, so it's a bit different than the other road courses in NASCAR. As the drivers barrel down the straights and into sharp corners, we see more than a few go off course as they attempt aggressive braking and accelerating maneuvers to make the pass. The teams that can stay on the course and out of the gravel traps or grass will collect a good finish this Sunday at the Glen. Over the last few seasons, we've seen NASCAR racing on the road circuits turn from more of a finesse game and into a fender-beating battle similar to what you would see on the series' short tracks. Aggressive driving is essential to victory, but starting up front on the starting grid is even more important. The drivers who qualify well and get good starting spots are often the ones seen hoisting the trophy at the end of the day at Watkins Glen International. Making green-flag passes here is difficult, so start up front and finish up front is the key to success at the Glen.

Since the NASCAR Cup Series races at Watkins Glen only once a season, we don't have a lot of statistics to go on this weekend. Fortunately, NASCAR keeps good loop data on the various tracks and these numbers will come in handy for this event. As the loop data will show, the drivers who typically do well at Watkins Glen have a history of racing well at this fast, rolling facility. We'll take a look at the last 18 races at Watkins Glen and examine these numbers closely when forming our prognostications for the Go Bowling at the Glen. The following table has the loop stats from the last 19 years or 18 races at Watkins Glen International.

In its NASCAR Cup history, the Glen has been won from the front three rows 30 times in the 40 total races run to-date. That factors out to a whopping 75-percent of the winners coming from the first three starting rows. The pole winner has collected 10 of those 40 wins and the outside pole starter has won four times, twice in just the last two seasons. In fact, no winner of this race has started worse than 18th on the grid, so starting near the front is extremely important at this winding road course. The last six winners at Watkins Glen International have all started on the front two rows. Last season's winner, William Byron, started on the outside pole and marked his first-career victory at the New York road course.

Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott are the current, active wins' leaders at Watkins Glen with two victories each. Busch's glory at the New York road course is a story of dominance over roughly the last decade. He won the 2008 and 2013 installments of this event, and he cracks the Top 10 at this circuit at an eye-popping 72-percent rate. Elliott's tenure has been much shorter, but no less impressive. The Hendrick Motorsports star has won or finished runner-up in three of the last five Watkins Glen events in jaw-dropping fashion. However, Larson has just recently come on the scene to challenge both for supremacy of the Glen. He has won two of the last three races at Watkins Glen and at least momentarily moved both Elliott and Busch to the side. We'll be interested to see if Larson can make it three wins at the Glen this Sunday. Let's take a look at the loop stats, recent history at Watkins Glen International and even look at this season's road course results to help give you the drivers you need to conquer your fantasy racing leagues this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson is a two-time winner of this event in 2021 and 2022. He has cracked the Top 10 in four of his last five starts at the Glen coming into Sunday's action. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a good performer on the winding road circuits as he showed with his strong win at Sonoma earlier this season. There are tracks that really play to Larson's strengths and the Glen is one of those facilities. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet also won a Xfinity start at Watkins Glen International two seasons ago, so he swept the weekend in 2022 at the New York road course. Larson has generally been a Top-10 finisher on most road circuits, but the Glen is where he could easily elevate his game to victory lane.

Tyler Reddick – The most successful road course driver of the last three seasons in the new generation stock car has easily been Reddick. The young 23XI Racing driver has three victories along with 16 Top-10 finishes on the road courses in 24 starts. It really has been surprising how dominant this driver has been in this style of racing. Reddick will be making just his fourth-career Cup start at Watkins Glen International this Sunday, but that's of little concern. Reddick has earned three consecutive Top-10 finishes in his three starts at the New York road course. This time around we'll get to see what the young driver has learned from those outings and from the road racing events of this season. The results shouldn't disappoint. 

William Byron – With a dominant victory earlier this season at COTA and Top-10 finish more recently on the streets of Chicago, we have to respect Byron and the No. 24 Chevrolet team going into this important playoff race. He won this event at the Glen one year ago from the outside pole in a dominant performance. That was Byron's first-career victory at Watkins Glen, and likely won't be his last. His average start at the New York road course is a stellar 7.8 and that's a big reason for Byron's success. He's visited the Top 10 in three of his five starts at the facility for a sound 60-percent rate and 11.6 average finish. The defending event champion will be strong in Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen.

Kyle Busch – Busch has been on a roll for the past month and scored his fourth-straight Top-10 finish at Atlanta this past week. He'll look to keep that momentum rolling at one of his favorite road circuits this Sunday. Busch has had a ton of success here over the years and simply can't be ignored this weekend. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is a two-time Watkins Glen winner (2008 and 2013), and he's grabbed 13-career Top-10 finishes there for a robust 72-percent. Busch's 10.7 career average finish across 18-career starts speaks volumes of his consistency at the Glen. If Larson, Reddick or Byron stumble this weekend, it could likely be Busch who sweeps into victory lane.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been held winless the last three seasons on the Cup Series' road circuits. However, Elliott has maintained a high level of performance on these winding circuits. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a two-time Watkins Glen victor and he finished a strong fourth-place at Sonoma early in the summer. With 170 combined laps led at the Glen, two wins and four Top 5's since 2016, Elliott has been a dominant force at this facility. He's not been the guy to beat for some time on these style tracks, but he's a 67-percent Top-10 finisher on the winding tracks and his 9.0 average finish across 33-career starts on the road courses speaks volumes of Elliott's abilities.    

Martin Truex Jr. – It's been an inconsistent season for Truex on the road courses, but Watkins Glen is a different animal. The Watkins Glen road course has yielded some great finishes over his NASCAR Cup Series career. Eleven of his 17-career starts at this facility have netted Top-10 finishes (65-percent), and he has nabbed six Top 10's in his last seven starts at the Glen coming into Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen. Truex grabbed his first-career Watkins Glen victory in 2017 and he's nabbed a pair of runner-up finishes in two of his starts since that win. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota came from 19th on the starting grid in this event one year ago to finish a strong sixth-place. Truex should step up his game in the Go Bowling at the Glen Sunday afternoon.   

Michael McDowell – The veteran Front Row Motorsports driver has been a proven performer in recent seasons on the road circuits, and he's carried that success into 2024. McDowell has runner-up (Sonoma) and fifth-place (Chicago) finishes this summer on the Cup Series road/street circuits and he's looking for more success at the Glen this Sunday. McDowell hasn't enjoyed as much success at Watkins Glen as he has at some other tracks in the series, but that should not be a deterrent to fantasy racing deployment this Sunday. McDowell has qualified third in his last two starts at the New York road course and led a combined 31 laps. He finished sixth-place two seasons ago and would have possibly cracked the Top 5 last season were it not for an electrical problem in his No. 34 Ford.   

Denny Hamlin – For a long time Hamlin's efforts at the Glen amounted to little more than frustration. He scored Top-10 finishes in his first four starts at the challenging road circuit, but then he experienced a power outage of titanic proportions. Hamlin only cracked the Top 20 once from 2010 to 2015 at the Glen. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has turned struggles into the spectacular at the Glen the last eight years. Hamlin won at this facility in 2016 and he's nabbed five Top-5 finishes in his last seven starts at Watkins Glen. He won the pole position and finished runner-up in this event one year ago. Hamlin has good skills in this style of racing, and the Glen is perhaps his favorite of the Cup Series road tracks.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Watkins Glen & solid upside

Shane van Gisbergen – He captured the NASCAR world's attention last season with his one-off victory at the inaugural Chicago Street Course. His second season hasn't gone quite as swimmingly but make no mistake Van Gisbergen is a talented road racer. He has three victories this season in the Xfinity Series and they have all come on road circuits. This weekend will be his first taste of action at Watkins Glen, but that shouldn't be a concern. The winding, rolling, high-speed course in New York is quite reminiscent of many of the tracks Van Gisbergen used to dominate in the Supercars Series in Australia. Anytime this veteran driver competes on a NASCAR road circuit, he's a threat to win.       

AJ Allmendinger – Despite crashing out in the Chicago Street race, Allmendinger has fared well on the winding circuits otherwise. The veteran Kaulig Racing driver nabbed a pair of sixth-place finishes at COTA and Sonoma earlier in the season and brings that potential to Watkins Glen International this Sunday. Allmendinger is a one-time winner (2014) at the Glen and his eight-career Top-10 finishes at the New York circuit check in at a strong 67-percent. He finished second-place in this event two seasons ago and fourth in last year's Watkins Glen event, both for this same Kaulig Racing team. That has whittled his career average finish at the Glen down to a robust 8.8. Allmendinger cannot be overlooked in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues this weekend.     

Christopher Bell – Bell grabbed a strong second-place at Circuit of the Americas early in the season and then followed with a steady ninth-place finish at Sonoma. He'd lead 14 laps and be in contention to win on the Chicago Street Course but get collected in a late accident. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is three-for-three in starts and Top 10's at Watkins Glen International. The best of those were his start one year ago where Bell drove to a third-place finish in the Go Bowling at the Glen. His average finish in those Cup Series starts at Watkins Glen checks in at a strong 6.0 average. Bell and the No. 20 JGR Toyota team seem like a no-miss fantasy racing play in the Go Bowling at the Glen.  

Chris Buescher – The road circuits have held a lot of success for Buescher and his No. 17 Ford team over the past two seasons. The veteran Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes for a stellar 10.3 average finish on these style tracks this season alone. Buescher was an eighth-place finisher at COTA earlier this season and he led a whopping 32 laps and finished third-place at Sonoma. Those are good samples for what to expect from the No. 17 Ford team at Watkins Glen. Buescher carries a two-race Watkins Glen Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. This veteran driver and team should have little trouble challenging the Top 10 in New York.

Joey Logano – Logano's win at Atlanta locks him into the next round of the Chase, so the pressure is off a good bit at Watkins Glen this weekend. That may be the edge to spur him to a good performance. His road racing in 2024 has been inconsistent, despite winning a pole and leading 16 laps at Sonoma. His luck should even out at Watkins Glen International. Logano is a one-time winner (2015) here and his 50-percent Top-10 rate across 14 starts is a reassuring statistic. The Penske Racing star rides a two-race Watkins Glen Top-10 streak into Sunday's action and that includes his 10th-place finish in this event one year ago. Logano should be a steady performer in the Go Bowling at the Glen.

Alex Bowman – Bowman brings a lot of upside to New York this week. Although he doesn't have the best Watkins Glen stats in his resume, he's been one of the more consistent performers of this season on the winding circuit. Bowman grabbed a victory on the Chicago Street circuit and cracked the Top 5 at COTA. He was Top 15 at Sonoma and that all works out to a strong 6.7 average finish for the season on the road courses. Bowman has been a Top-15 finisher in three of his last five starts at the Glen, but we really feel like that's the floor for him this Sunday. We believe the No. 48 Chevrolet team will be a Top-10 treat at Watkins Glen International.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Erik Jones – The Legacy Motor Club veteran has had a tough season on the road circuits. Jones has finishes of 32nd-, 19th- and 29th-place in the three events to-date. That works out to a 26.7 average finish and well worse than his career average of 18.7 on road courses. The driver of the No. 43 Toyota is on "the struggle bus" as they say and no really good explanation as to why he is having problems. At first glance it would appear to be a qualifying problem as he's had difficulty getting that good starting track position that helps lead to a good finish on these tracks. Jones has some reasonably good historical stats at Watkins Glen (14.2 average finish in six starts); however, he only managed a 29th-place finish in this event one year ago.

Josh Berry – This season has had its ups-and-downs for the new driver of the No. 4 Ford, but the road courses have been nothing short of a disaster. Berry has qualified poorly (33.0 average start) and he finished just as poorly (34.3). He hasn't maintained the lead lap in a single one of the three road racing events thus far. Berry will be making his Cup Series Watkins Glen debut this Sunday and he only has two-career Xfinity Series starts at the track, with mixed results. Due to a lack of performance and a lack of experience in NASCAR's top division at this track, we cannot recommend Berry and the No. 4 team for fantasy use this Sunday in the Go Bowling at the Glen.     

Austin Dillon – The 11-season veteran is having a rough campaign. Dillon is coming off a subpar 20th-place finish at Atlanta and is tracking towards his worst finish in the driver standings of his career. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet has nine-career starts at Watkins Glen International and just one Top-15 finish to his credit. However, he has six finishes outside the Top 25 at the New York track. Dillon finished 31st in this event one year ago, and he's had problems this season on the winding circuits. The Richard Childress Racing veteran has just one Top-20 finish and a lowly 26.7 average finish in the three road racing events of 2024. Dillon should be benched in all formats this weekend.            

Bubba Wallace – Wallace's 0-percent Top-10 rate over the past two seasons of road racing is a statistic that stands out. It culminates in a subpar 19.9 average finish for the No. 23 Toyota team in this style of racing. He's greatly reduced his DNFs in this style of racing, but he can't seem to challenge the Top 10 no matter what the track. In five-career Cup Series starts at Watkins Glen, Wallace has just one Top-15 finish and an average finish of 24.6. Considering how he faded this past weekend at Atlanta, we believe morale could be low with this driver and team. It's better to bench Wallace this week and save a fantasy start for him at Talladega.