Go Bowling at the Glen Preview: Return to the Road Course

This weekend the Monster Energy Cup Series visits Watkins Glen International for the next road course race in the schedule with its annual running of the Go Bowling at the Glen.  This circuit is an 11-turn, winding road course with many long straights terminated by hair-pin turns.  The event is 90 laps on the almost 2.5-mile course.  Top speeds are close to 160 mph, which is unusual for a typical road circuit and due mainly to the long straights that occur at three places on the track. Horse power and aero-handling are key factors for this race, so it's a bit different than the other road courses in NASCAR.  

As the drivers barrel down the straights and into sharp corners, we see more than a few go off course as they attempt aggressive braking and accelerating maneuvers to make the pass.  The teams that can stay on the course and out of the gravel traps or grass will collect a good finish this Sunday at the Glen.  Over the last few seasons we've seen NASCAR racing on the road circuits turn from more of a finesse game and into a fender-beating battle similar to what you would see on the series' short tracks.  Aggressive driving is essential to victory, but qualifying up front on the starting grid is even more important.  The drivers who get good starting spots are often the ones seen hoisting the trophy at the end of the day at Watkins Glen International.  Making green-flag passes here is difficult, so start up front and finish up front is the key to success at the Glen.

Since the Monster Energy Cup Series races at Watkins Glen only once a season, we don't have a lot of statistics to go on this weekend.  Fortunately, NASCAR keeps good loop data on the various tracks and these numbers will come in handy for this event.  As the loop data will show, the drivers who typically do well at Watkins Glen have a history of racing well at this fast, rolling facility.  We'll take a look at the last 14 races at Watkins Glen and examine these numbers closely when forming our prognostications for the Go Bowling at the Glen.  The following table has the loop stats from the last 14 years or 14 races at Watkins Glen International.

In its Monster Energy Cup history, the Glen has been won from the front three rows 26 times in the 36 total races run to-date.  That factors out to a whopping 72-percent of the winners coming from the first three starting rows. The pole winner has collected nine of those 36 wins. In fact, no winner of this race has started worse than 18th on the grid, so qualifying well is extremely important at this winding road course.  The winner of this race one year ago, Chase Elliott, started third on the grid, so he was yet another example of this Watkins Glen phenomena.  The Hendrick Motorsports star started up front and raced there much of the day en route to his first-career Watkins Glen victory.  As far as setting your weekly fantasy racing lineups this Sunday, you can take a long look at pole-qualifying this Friday and it will be a good indicator of what to expect in this race. 

Kyle Busch is the current, active wins leader at Watkins Glen with two total victories.  Busch's glory at the New York road course is a story of dominance over roughly the last decade.  He won the 2008 and 2013 installments of this event, and he cracks the Top 10 at this circuit at an eye-popping 86-percent rate.  Coming off the strong Pocono performance last weekend, Busch is visiting the perfect track to get back into victory lane.  The biggest threats to Busch this Sunday are likely Martin Truex Jr., and Stewart Haas Racing star Kevin Harvick.  The pair are past Watkins Glen winners and both are racing extremely well entering this weekend's event.  Outside of that duo Busch's teammate, Denny Hamlin, gets a fantasy racing upgrade this weekend.  He's coming off the big Pocono win, and he's also a one-time winner at the Glen.  Last year's Watkins Glen champion, Chase Elliott, is struggling coming to New York.  It will be interesting to see if the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet can rebound to contender status this Sunday.  We'll take a look at the loop stats, recent history at the Glen and even look at this season's road course race at Sonoma to help give you the road racing experts to conquer your fantasy racing leagues this weekend.

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star led a ton of laps at Pocono last weekend, but the wrong pit strategy would end up denying the driver of the No. 18 Toyota victory lane.  He should be in full rebound mode this weekend at the Watkins Glen course.  The veteran driver won this race in 2008 and 2013, and he's a three-time pole-winner at the New York road circuit.  Busch has led close to 250 laps in his 14 Watkins Glen starts, so he knows what it takes to run up front here.  This is a race track for aggressive drivers, and that's exactly what Busch is without a doubt.  Considering his lofty 43-percent Top-5 rate at this facility, we have to give top contender status to the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 team for this Sunday afternoon at the Glen.

Martin Truex Jr. – In what has been a great season for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota, the tracks that bring out his best get our upmost attention.  Truex proves to be a very worthy fantasy racing play on his better tracks.  The Watkins Glen road course has yielded some good finishes over his Monster Energy Cup career.  Eight of his 13-career starts at this facility have netted Top-10 finishes (62-percent).  Truex grabbed his first-career victory at the Glen in this event two years ago, and he battled Chase Elliott to the checkered flag to finish runner-up in this event one year ago.  Add to that fact that the Joe Gibbs Racing star won at the Sonoma road circuit earlier this summer, and you have a potent combination for the Go Bowling at the Glen this weekend. 

Kevin Harvick – Riding a two-race Top-10 streak and coming off a sixth-place finish at Pocono, Harvick will set his sights to win on the 11-turn road course in New York.  It's been a track of mixed results over the years for the Stewart Haas Racing star.  Harvick has nine-career Top-10 finishes in 18 starts which work out to a steady 50-percent rate.  His latest efforts have been less than encouraging but he did crack the Top 10 one year ago.  The road courses haven't been the greatest venues for the driver of the No. 4 Ford, but he did post an impressive sixth-place finish earlier this summer at Sonoma.  There's no doubt that Harvick possesses the skills and motivation to win Sunday's battle in the rolling hills of New York.

Denny Hamlin – For a long time Hamlin's efforts at the Glen amounted to little more than frustration.  He scored Top-10 finishes in his first four starts at the challenging road circuit, but then he experienced a power outage of titanic proportions.  Hamlin only cracked the Top 20 once from 2010 to 2015 at the Glen.  It was an almost improbable cold streak.  However, the Joe Gibbs Racing star put that squarely behind him with an impressive first-career victory at the track three seasons ago.  Hamlin is coming off the big win at Pocono this past week, and riding some major momentum into New York this week.  Earlier this summer the driver of the No. 11 Toyota added to his road course success with a strong fifth-place finish at Sonoma.  He should be on point for this battle at Watkins Glen.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is riding in cruise control coming to Watkins Glen.  Not out of complacency, but his one win and 11 Top 10's has him well positioned in the driver standings at seventh-place overall.  Busch is a great road course driver as his Sonoma and Watkins Glen resumes will attest.  While he only has one pole position and nine Top 10's at the New York road course in 18-career starts, his success has come more recently at the facility.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has five Top 10's and an 11th-place finish in his last six starts at the Glen coming into Sunday's battle.  Busch's 53-percent Sonoma and 50-percent Watkins Glen Top-10 rates speak to his consistency.  That type of road racing skill makes him a dangerous competitor on these winding circuits. 

Erik Jones –  With three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the last six events entering the weekend, the No. 20 Toyota team is riding high coming to Watkins Glen.  The really good news is that Jones has raced very well in his two-career starts at this facility.  He finished 10th in his debut at the Glen two seasons ago, and he raced to an impressive fifth-place finish one year ago.  To further bolster the young driver's road course resume, Jones qualified 32nd at Sonoma earlier this summer, but it didn't deter him from finishing a surprising eighth at Sonoma Raceway.  Considering this young driver's current hot streak and his obvious road racing skill, it's difficult to bet against Jones and his Joe Gibbs Racing team this weekend.

Joey Logano – Logano has a short but successful resume at the Glen.  He has one victory (2015) and has five Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts at the New York road course.  The Penske Racing star is coming off a subpar Pocono performance, but should rebound nicely at Watkins Glen.  The No. 22 Ford team has always brought fast cars to this New York road course, and Logano has always been skillful in piloting them.  His 16.3 average finish across those 10-career starts are evidence of this road racing skill.  Logano is looking to shore up his points position for the Chase as the regular season winds down.  All indicators point towards a strong performance in Sunday's race at the 11-turn road course.

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports driver won this event one year ago in thrilling fashion.  He out-dueled Martin Truex Jr. over the closing laps and grabbed his first-ever Monster Energy Cup Series victory.  Elliott will now look to repeat that performance at the Watkins Glen course.  He faces some tough odds though.  Currently mired in a seven-race Top-10 drought, Elliott is coming off a frustrating crash and DNF at Pocono last weekend.  He'll have to shake off the slump and bad luck if he hopes to do well at Watkins Glen.  The good news is that he should have some confidence returning to New York.  The No. 9 Chevrolet was incredibly fast at the Sonoma road circuit earlier this summer, so they should have the speed to succeed Sunday afternoon.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Watkins Glen who can provide a solid finish

Kyle Larson – The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has started to climb out of the hole of late.  With Top-5 finishes in three of his last five starts, including a strong fifth-place finish at Pocono Raceway this past weekend, Larson is beginning to heat up.  The urgency to make the Chase field is fueling him, and it should show again this weekend at Watkins Glen.  Road courses have not proven to be Larson's best tracks.  However, he had a fast car at Sonoma back in June where he won the pole and finished 10th in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  Larson's five-career efforts at the Glen have netted two Top-10 finishes (40-percent).  That's a mixed bag to be sure.  However, he peddled to an impressive sixth-place in this event one year ago.  Larson's current hot streak should propel him to another Top 10 in the Go Bowling at the Glen.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is a very skilled young driver.  He continues to improve on short tracks and road courses, and those have been his most challenging tracks in his brief career.  Blaney qualified ninth and peddled to a third-place finish in the June Sonoma race.  That performance definitely grabs our attention.  It was arguably his best-career performance on a NASCAR road course.  The Penske Racing driver's last two Watkins Glen starts have netted eighth- and 12th-place finishes.  Blaney continues to qualify and finish better at these road circuits the more he sees of them.  We believe the driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang could be poised for a career-best run at the Glen this Sunday afternoon. 

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer is what we consider to be a proficient road course driver.  The career statistics between Sonoma and Watkins Glen tell the story.  Since returning to a good race team three seasons ago, he's become relevant again on these winding circuits.  Bowyer raced to a respectable 11th-place finish at Sonoma in June of this year.  Now he'll look to better that performance in the Go Bowling at the Glen.  The Glen has yielded five Top-10 finishes in Bowyer's last 10 starts at the facility.  While he's never been a major threat to win here nor a lap leader, the veteran has been steady in his performances and finishes.  He's only finished off the lead lap once in his 13-career starts at the Glen, and his 14.0 average finish speaks of his consistency at this tough track.  Bowyer could challenge the Top 5 at Watkins Glen.

William Byron - The not-so-obvious fantasy racing play this week is Byron and his No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports team.  The young driver made his Watkins Glen debut in this event one year ago.  He qualified 16th on the grid and raced through the eye of the storm to collect an impressive eighth-place finish as a rookie driver.  Byron will lean greatly on that experience this weekend.  Earlier this summer, he qualified on the outside pole, led 21 laps and won stage 1 at the Sonoma road circuit.  Although he didn't get the finish he deserved that afternoon, he displayed some surprising skill navigating that very technical course.  The wide open, faster course at the Glen should play even better to Byron's skills this weekend, and we expect him to get the finish he deserves.

Aric Almirola – We'll toss the historic records out the window for this veteran driver.  Almirola has never been known for his road course expertise.  However, that didn't stop the driver of the Stewart Haas Racing No. 10 Ford from picking up an impressive ninth-place finish at Sonoma Raceway earlier this summer.  That was Almirola's second-straight Top 10 at the California road circuit, and a good reason to reexamine our stance on his road racing performance.  Now he comes to New York looking to achieve a first as this road circuit.  Almirola has been a 24.2 average finisher at the Glen since the 2008 season.  We're willing to bet he bucks that trend and grabs yet another surprising Top-10 finish.        

Daniel Suarez – The Stewart Haas Racing youngster was a tough luck finisher at Pocono Raceway this past weekend, and it came due to a run-in with Darrell Wallace Jr.  Suarez will look to rebound this weekend at the Glen.  He has totally mastered this road circuit in his first two starts.  The driver of the No. 41 Ford has peddled to third- and fourth-place finishes so far at Watkins Glen.  To a certain extent Suarez seems to possess better road racing skills than oval racing skills at this point in his career.  The pressure to make the Chase is building, and currently sitting 18th in the driver standings he has to act fast.  There are only five more races between him and the cutoff for the playoffs.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is looking to build on recent Top-10 finishes at Loudon and Pocono this weekend.  Watkins Glen was a wildly successful track for Keselowski earlier in his career, but not so much of late.  After a string of runner-up and Top-5 finishes earlier, he's labored to 15th- and 17th-place finishes in his last two starts at the New York road course.  It's pretty reflective of his road course career in general.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford has always struggled at Sonoma, and he did earlier this summer finishing a distant 18th.  It would seem the odds are stacked against Keselowski this weekend, as there are better fantasy racing options than him in the Go Bowling at the Glen.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson had a crew chief change this week, but the team will face uphill odds to crack the Top 10 in their first start with new leadership.  The seven-time champion has better tracks in his resume than Watkins Glen.  The New York road course is among his worst with no victories and a subpar 47-percent Top-10 rate.  Recent outings have been very disappointing.  Johnson has only cracked the Top 10 once in his last five starts at the Glen.  Finishes of 40th-, 29th- and 30th-place have been his last three efforts.  He labored to a 12th-place finish at Sonoma earlier this summer, but racing at the Glen will be a totally different challenge for Johnson. 

Paul Menard – The driver of the No. 21 Ford has been a decent performer on the short tracks and intermediate ovals this season.  Menard has shown some real fantasy racing utility on those ovals.  However, he gets a downgrade this weekend for the Go Bowling at the Glen.  Road courses have presented real challenges over the years to the veteran driver.  Menard has one Top-10 finish in 27-combined starts between Sonoma and Watkins Glen.  The Glen has actually been a tougher track for Menard than the one in California with a lowly 22.7 average finish.  He finished a distant 28th in this event one year ago, and 22nd-place earlier this summer at Sonoma.  A mid-20's finish would seem to be on tap for the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing team.         

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – While intermediate ovals have been very successful tracks for Stenhouse this season, the short tracks and road courses have been brutal.  Watkins Glen has been equally tough for this seventh-season driver.  His six prior starts at the Glen have netted 18th-, 20th-, 34th-, 38th-, 20th and 16th-place finishes.  That's a whopping 24.3 average across the six starts.  Clearly, the intermediate ovals, coming in at a career 19.9 average finish, are much better tracks for this veteran driver.  With a 21st-place finish at Sonoma earlier this summer, it may be best to lay off Stenhouse and his Roush Fenway Racing team this weekend, until the Roush Fenway Racing driver can get hot again.