Go Bowling at the Glen Preview: Return to New York

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series visits Watkins Glen International for the next road course race in this heavy season of road racing with its annual running of the Go Bowling at the Glen.  This will be NASCAR's first visit to New York since 2019 due to the pandemic and scheduling issues with this event.  

The Watkins Glen circuit is an 11-turn, winding road course with many long straights terminated by hair-pin turns.  The event is 90 laps on the almost 2.5-mile course, divided into stages of 20, 20 and 50 laps.  Top speeds are close to 160 mph which is very unusual for a typical road circuit, and this is due mainly to the long straights which occur at three places on the track.  Horse power and aero-handling are key factors for this race, so it's a bit different than the other road courses in NASCAR.  As the drivers barrel down the straights and into sharp corners, we see more than a few go off course as they attempt aggressive braking and accelerating maneuvers to make the pass.  The teams that can stay on the course and out of the gravel traps or grass will collect a good finish this Sunday at the Glen.  Over the last few seasons we've seen NASCAR racing on the road circuits turn from more of a finesse game and into a fender-beating battle similar to what you would see on the series' short tracks.  Aggressive driving is essential to victory, but starting up front on the starting grid is even more important.  The drivers who get good starting spots are often the ones seen hoisting the trophy at the end of the day at Watkins Glen International.  Making green-flag passes here is difficult, so start up front and finish up front is the key to success at the Glen.

Since the NASCAR Cup Series races at Watkins Glen only once a season, we don't have a lot of statistics to go on this weekend.  Fortunately, NASCAR keeps good loop data on the various tracks and these numbers will come in handy for this event.  As the loop data will show, the drivers who typically do well at Watkins Glen have a history of racing well at this fast, rolling facility.  We'll take a look at the last 15 races at Watkins Glen and examine these numbers closely when forming our prognostications for the Go Bowling at the Glen.  The following table has the loop stats from the last 16 years or 15 races at Watkins Glen International.

In its NASCAR Cup history, the Glen has been won from the front three rows 27 times in the 37 total races run to-date.  That factors out to a whopping 73-percent of the winners coming from the first three starting rows.  The pole winner has collected 10 of those 37 wins.  In fact, no winner of this race has started worse than 18th on the grid, so starting near the front is extremely important at this winding road course.  The winner of this race two years ago, Chase Elliott, started on the pole, so he was yet another example of this Watkins Glen phenomena.  Since NASCAR will not qualify or practice this weekend, the field will be set by qualifying metrics based on the last race at New Hampshire.  This wrinkle will test the historic patterns at Watkins Glen.  The fastest cars of the weekend may not be necessarily starting in the first three rows.  

Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott are the current, active wins leaders at Watkins Glen with two victories each.  Busch's glory at the New York road course is a story of dominance over roughly the last decade.  He won the 2008 and 2013 installments of this event, and he cracks the Top 10 at this circuit at an eye-popping 80-percent rate.  Elliott's tenure has been much shorter, but he's been the most dominant force at this oval the last few seasons.  The Hendrick Motorsports star has won the last two Watkins Glen events in jaw-dropping fashion.  Elliott should be the man to beat this weekend.  Other drivers who'll get a fantasy racing upgrade this Sunday are Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin.  All three were great in our last road racing event at Road America, and all are proven performers at the New York road circuit.  We'll take a look at the loop stats, recent history at the Glen and even look at this season's road course results to help give you the drivers you need to conquer your fantasy racing leagues this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been the gold standard on the road circuits the last couple seasons, and he should have no trouble hitting the ground running after the long Olympic break.  Elliott has two victories and one runner-up finish in the last three Cup Series road course events, and he has 86 total laps led in the four events to-date this season.  That's a lot of racing up front on these circuits.  Last time out at Road America in early-July, the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet rallied from the back of the field to lead 24 laps and win the Jockey Made in America 250.  Elliott has won the last two Watkins Glen events (2018 and 2019), so a triumphant return to New York would not come as a surprise. 

Kyle Larson – The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has had a stellar season to this point, and the road circuits have been a part of that success.  Larson nabbed a brilliant runner-up finish at COTA in the rain and then he followed that with a dominant victory from the pole at Sonoma.  He really has been the biggest threat to Elliott's dominance this season on the road courses.  Larson's last two visits to Watkins Glen yielded strong finishes of sixth- and eighth-place.  This high-speed road circuit really plays to this driver's strengths and skill set.  With a 50-percent Top-10 rate at this facility and six laps led in his last Watkins Glen outing (2019), Larson will be looking to not only add to that tally this Sunday but also to his trophy case. 

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been strong on road circuits in 2021.  Busch has 18 combined laps led, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the four races to-date.  He's been a contender to win more often than not this season on these style tracks.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota is a two-time Watkins Glen winner (2008 and 2013), and he's grabbed four Top 10's in his last five Watkins Glen starts.  With close to 250-career laps led at the New York circuit and a miniscule 9.5 career average finish, the Glen is one of Busch's most successful road circuits.  If Elliott or Larson stumble this weekend, it will likely be Busch who sweeps into victory lane.

Martin Truex Jr. – It's been an uneven season for Truex on the road courses, but he's been improving of late.  Recent finishes of third- and ninth-place at Sonoma and Road America show marked improvement.  The Watkins Glen road course has yielded some great finishes over his NASCAR Cup career.  Nine of his 14-career starts at this facility have netted Top-10 finishes (64-percent).  Truex grabbed his first-career Watkins Glen victory in 2017 and he's nabbed a pair of runner-up finishes in the two starts since that win.  He has been one of the top drivers to beat at this circuit in the last three events at the Glen.  Truex should step up his game in the Go Bowling at the Glen Sunday afternoon.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – For a long time Hamlin's efforts at the Glen amounted to little more than frustration.  He scored Top-10 finishes in his first four starts at the challenging road circuit, but then he experienced a power outage of titanic proportions.  Hamlin only cracked the Top 20 once from 2010 to 2015 at the Glen.  However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has turned struggles into the spectacular at the Glen the last five years.  Hamlin won at this facility in 2016 and he's nabbed three Top-5 finishes in his last four starts at Watkins Glen.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been sharp this season on road circuits with two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in four starts (7.5 average finish).  Hamlin should feel right at home Sunday at the Glen.

Joey Logano – Logano has had a strong 2021 season on the winding circuits.  He kicked off the campaign with a runner-up finish on the Daytona road course and he's led a combined 29 laps this year on these style tracks.  With three Top-5 finishes in four starts, the Penske Racing star has registered a miniscule 6.0 average finish on the road courses, which leads all drivers.  While Logano hasn't been a major threat to win, he's been a consistent performer and regular face among the Top 5 on these style tracks.  Watkins Glen has yielded success over the years to the driver of the No. 22 Ford.  His five Top-10 finishes in 11 starts checks in at respectable 46-percent.  Logano is a one-time Watkins Glen winner (2015) and that experience will come in handy Sunday afternoon.

Christopher Bell – Bell has been a bit inconsistent this season on the road courses, but when he's clicked he's clicked to the spectacular.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster grabbed an upset win in the Daytona road course event in February.  He then suffered through a couple subpar performances at COTA and Sonoma before rallying to an excellent runner-up finish most recently at Road America.  Despite the unevenness, it's clear that Bell has the road racing gift.  This will be his first Cup Series start at Watkins Glen, but we have a good set of Xfinity Series stats to look at for this driver.  Bell's two-career starts at the Glen in that division yielded ninth- and second-place finishes.  That experience will be valuable this weekend as Bell continues to write his Cup Series road course resume.

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is riding in cruise control coming to Watkins Glen.  Before the two-week break, his one win and five Top 10's in the prior seven events had Busch positioned as one of the hottest drivers in the series the last two months.  Busch is a great road course driver as his Sonoma and Watkins Glen resumes will attest.  While he only has one pole position and 10 Top 10's at the New York road course in 19-career starts, his success has come more recently at the facility.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has six Top 10's in his last seven starts at the Glen.  That is stellar and performance well above his career averages at this track.  Busch's two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in four road course starts this season has produced a strong 10.3 average finish.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Watkins Glen & solid upside

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been a proficient and consistent road course performer in 2021.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver has grabbed finishes of 10th-, eighth-, ninth- and 22nd-place in the four events to-date.  The average finish coming in at a very respectable 12.3.  While he's not been a big lap leader or stage winner, he's demonstrated the ability to race among the Top 10 for most of these events and generally crack the Top 10 by the checkered flag.  Bowman's Watkins Glen history has been a bit spotty, but generally improved in his last couple outings.  He's logged a pair of 14th-place finishes at the Glen in his last two starts.  We're willing to bet Bowman collects a career-best Watkins Glen finish this Sunday. 

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is not known for his road course excellence, but he's always seemed to have an edge racing at the Glen.  Earlier in his career, Keselowski nabbed three-straight runner-up finishes at Watkins Glen from 2011 to 2013.  He's also posted six Top 10's in 10-career starts for a robust 60-percent Top-10 rate.  The 11.2 average finish checks in among the top drivers in the series.  While road racing has been no bed of roses for the No. 2 Ford team in 2021, Keselowski did post a Top-5 finish at Daytona to start the season.  We believe Watkins Glen is a game changer for this driver and team due to its long straights and higher average speeds. 

Ross Chastain – The journeyman Chip Ganassi Racing driver has been an absolute stud and secret weapon of fantasy racing players this season on the winding circuits.  Those savvy enough to deploy the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet have collected three Top-10 finishes in four starts this season, including a very impressive fourth-place finish at COTA in the rain.  Chastain is not really known for having a rich history of road course performance, so this season has been a bit of a surprise campaign for Chastain on these style tracks.  His Watkins Glen resume holds little more than a 29.5 average finish in just two starts.  So don't get caught up in those numbers.  Chastain is poised to challenge and possibly crack the Top 10 in the Go Bowling at the Glen.        

Chase Briscoe – The rookie Stewart Haas Racing driver has always shown an impressive knack for road course racing.  Briscoe grabbed two victories and seven Top-10 finishes in 10-career Xfinity Series starts over the last few seasons on these style circuits.  Although he got off to a bit of a bumpy start this season at the Daytona road circuit, Briscoe has rebounded nicely in the three starts on these style tracks since then.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford has racked up a pair of sixth-place finishes at COTA and Road America and a 17th-place finish at Sonoma.  He's lowered his average finish this season to a respectable 15.3 after stumbling at Daytona in February.  Briscoe will be making his Cup Series debut at this track this weekend, but it's very reassuring to know he posted a strong sixth-place finish at the Glen in his one and only Xfinity Series start here in 2019.

Erik Jones –  Jones has generally been a Top-15 finisher this season on the road courses.  His average finish in 2021 on these style tracks reflects that at an even 15.0 average.  The Richard Petty Motorsports veteran has three-career Cup Series starts at Watkins Glen with very impressive results.  Jones has two Top-5 and three Top-10 performances in those starts for a stellar 6.3 average finish.  We have to put those results in context as they did come with a better equipped Joe Gibbs Racing team.  So we would adjust down our expectations a bit with the RPM No. 43 team.  Still, Jones has the road racing gift and he should be good enough to post a Top-15 finish at the New York road circuit.    

Tyler Reddick – The young driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has never really been known for his road course racing in the lower divisions of NASCAR, so his performance to this point in 2021 is a bit surprising.  Reddick has nabbed a pole position, as the series did qualify at COTA earlier in the spring.  He earned a strong ninth-place finish there in the rain and he more recently grabbed an eighth-place finish at Road America in early-July.  Those two Top-10 finishes sandwiched a respectable Top-20 finish at Sonoma.  The 18.5 average finish would be lower, but he experienced an unfortunate crash at Daytona early in the season.  Reddick would appear to have a good handle on this style of racing.  His two Xfinity Series starts at the Glen yielded 11th- and fifth-place finishes, so the young driver has a good feel for this circuit.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kevin Harvick – It's been an incredibly tough season for the Stewart Haas Racing No. 4 team in many respects, but none more challenging than the road circuits.  Harvick crashed and did not finish in the downpour at COTA earlier this season and it's been all downhill since.  Disappointing finishes of 22nd-place at Sonoma and 27th-place at Road America have been very uncharacteristic for Harvick.  He's a past Watkins Glen winner (2006) but that was over a decade ago.  Harvick's 52-percent Top-10 rate at the New York road course is not bad at all, but his recent struggles make him a risky fantasy racing selection in the top tier of drivers for the Go Bowling at the Glen. 

Ryan Newman – Newman is struggling through one of the worst campaigns of his two-decade Cup Series career.  With just three Top 10's for the season and none since May, he comes to Watkins Glen mired in a 10-race Top-10 drought.  Things don't look very promising as NASCAR returns to action on the challenging Watkins Glen circuit.  In 18-career starts at the Glen Newman has just three Top-10 finishes (17-percent rate) and a bit inflated 18.3 average finish.  He's been finishing well above that average in recent outings.  Newman's last three starts at the New York road course have netted 25th-, 19th- and 25th-place finishes from 2017 to 2019.  The driver of the No. 6 Ford has struggled to a disappointing 27.3 average finish on these style tracks in 2021.      

William Byron – Despite displaying good speed on the winding circuits this season with 20-combined laps led, finishing has been the problem for the No. 24 Chevrolet team.  Byron has been in contention to win a couple of these road course events, but bad decisions and bad luck have put him back in the finishing order for the most part.  Three of his four starts to-date have been finishes outside the Top 30.  It's apparent that Byron is still learning the patience and the timing to improve in this style of racing.  When we take a quick glance at his Xfinity Series stats we see that Byron's average finish on the road courses was four-to-five positions worse than his oval track average.  He makes a good bench candidate in weekly lineup leagues this week. 

Bubba Wallace – Despite some improved racing before the Olympic break, Wallace is a driver to fade this weekend at Watkins Glen.  Road courses racing has been tough for the young driver in 2021.  Wallace has just one Top-15 finish vs. three finishes outside the Top 20 for a 25.8 average.  That's pretty close to where he was last time out at Road America (24th-place) in early-July.  Short tracks and superspeedways have always been Wallace's "go-to" tracks anyway, and road circuits have been his poorest finishing tracks in the schedule.  With just two-career Cup Series starts at the Glen, he's also short on experience here too.  The 26.5 average finish across those two starts sound about right on the money for this weekend.