Go Bowling at the Glen Preview: New York Road Course

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series goes road racing for the second consecutive week and visits Watkins Glen International for this next-to-last road course event in this 2023 season with its annual running of the Go Bowling at the Glen. The Watkins Glen circuit is an 11-turn, winding road course with many long straights terminated by hair-pin turns. The event is 90 laps on the almost 2.5-mile course, divided into stages of 20, 20 and 50 laps. Top speeds are close to 160 mph which is very unusual for a typical road circuit, and this is due mainly to the long straights which occur at three places on the track. Horse power and aero-handling are key factors for this race, so it's a bit different than the other road courses in NASCAR. As the drivers barrel down the straights and into sharp corners, we see more than a few go off course as they attempt aggressive braking and accelerating maneuvers to make the pass. The teams that can stay on the course and out of the gravel traps or grass will collect a good finish this Sunday at the Glen. Over the last few seasons we've seen NASCAR racing on the road circuits turn from more of a finesse game and into a fender-beating battle similar to what you would see on the series' short tracks. Aggressive driving is essential to victory, but starting up front on the starting grid is even more important. The drivers who qualify well and get good starting spots are often the ones seen hoisting the trophy at the end of the day at Watkins Glen International. Making green-flag passes here is difficult, so start up front and finish up front is the key to success at the Glen.

Since the NASCAR Cup Series races at Watkins Glen only once a season, we don't have a lot of statistics to go on this weekend. Fortunately, NASCAR keeps good loop data on the various tracks and these numbers will come in handy for this event. As the loop data will show, the drivers who typically do well at Watkins Glen have a history of racing well at this fast, rolling facility. We'll take a look at the last 16 races at Watkins Glen and examine these numbers closely when forming our prognostications for the Go Bowling at the Glen. The following table has the loop stats from the last 18 years or 17 races at Watkins Glen International.

In its NASCAR Cup history, the Glen has been won from the front three rows 29 times in the 39 total races run to-date. That factors out to a whopping 74-percent of the winners coming from the first three starting rows. The pole winner has collected 10 of those 39 wins. In fact, no winner of this race has started worse than 18th on the grid, so starting near the front is extremely important at this winding road course. The last five winners at Watkins Glen International have all started on the front two rows. Last season's winner, Kyle Larson, started on the outside pole and marked his second-straight victory at the New York road course.

Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott are the current, active wins' leaders at Watkins Glen with two victories each. Busch's glory at the New York road course is a story of dominance over roughly the last decade. He won the 2008 and 2013 installments of this event, and he cracks the Top 10 at this circuit at an eye-popping 77-percent rate. Elliott's tenure has been much shorter, but no less impressive. The Hendrick Motorsports star has won or finished runner-up in three of the last four Watkins Glen events in jaw-dropping fashion. However, Larson has just recently come on the scene to challenge both for supremacy of the Glen. He has won the last two races at Watkins Glen and at least momentarily moved both Elliott and Busch to the side. We'll be interested to see if Larson can make it three wins in a row at the Glen this Sunday. Let's take a look at the loop stats, recent history at Watkins Glen International and even look at this season's road course results to help give you the drivers you need to conquer your fantasy racing leagues this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson is the two-time defending winner of this event in 2021 and 2022. He rides a three-race Watkins Glen Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a good performer on the winding road circuits as he showed with his eighth-place finish at Indianapolis this past week. However, there are tracks that really play to Larson's strengths and the Glen is one of those facilities. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet also won an Xfinity start at Watkins Glen International last season, so he swept the weekend last year at the New York road course. Larson has generally been a Top-10 finisher on this season's road circuits, but the Glen is where he could easily elevate his game to victory lane.

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been held winless the last two seasons on the Cup Series' road circuits. However, Elliott has finished runner-up twice (including this past weekend at the Brickyard) and has cracked the Top 3 on three occasions in the last 10 road racing events. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a two-time Watkins Glen victor and he's finished second- and fourth-place in his last two starts at the New York road circuit. With 170 combined laps led at the Glen, two wins and four Top 5's since 2016, Elliott has been a dominant force at this facility. He's been a top driver to beat in the last several Watkins Glen races and that won't change in Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen.   

Kyle Busch – Until this past weekend's poor luck at Indianapolis, the RCR veteran had been killing the road courses this season. He'll look to bounce back at one of his favorite road circuits this Sunday. Busch has had a ton of success here over the years and simply can't be ignored this weekend. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is a two-time Watkins Glen winner (2008 and 2013), and he's grabbed six Top 10's in his last seven Watkins Glen starts. With close to 250-career laps led at the New York circuit and a miniscule 10.5 career average finish, the Glen is one of Busch's most successful road course tracks. If Elliott or Larson stumble this weekend, it could likely be Busch who sweeps into victory lane.

Martin Truex Jr. – It's been an inconsistent season for Truex on the road courses, but Watkins Glen is a different animal. The Watkins Glen road course has yielded some great finishes over his NASCAR Cup Series career. Ten of his 16-career starts at this facility have netted Top-10 finishes (63-percent), and he has nabbed five Top 10's in his last six starts at the Glen coming into Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen. Truex grabbed his first-career Watkins Glen victory in 2017 and he's nabbed a pair of runner-up finishes in two of his starts since that win. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota rung up a victory earlier this season at another of his favorite track in Sonoma, so it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him grab the checkers in New York. Truex should step up his game in the Go Bowling at the Glen Sunday afternoon.   

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – The most successful road course driver of the last two seasons in the new generation stock car has easily been Reddick. The young 23XI Racing driver three victories along with seven Top-10 finishes on the road courses since 2022. It really has been surprising how dominant this driver has been in this style of racing. Reddick will be making just his third-career Cup start at Watkins Glen International this Sunday, but that's of little concern. Reddick has earned a pair of Top-10 finishes in his first two starts at the New York road course. This time around we'll get to see what the young driver has learned from those outings and from the road racing events of this season. The results shouldn't disappoint. 

Michael McDowell – The veteran Front Row Motorsports driver has been a proven performer in recent seasons on the road circuits, and he's carried that success into 2023. McDowell is fresh off the surprising victory at the Indianapolis road course this past weekend and his seven Top 10's the last two seasons in 10 road racing events (70-percent) is quite impressive. The 9.2 average finish across the span is very strong indeed. McDowell hasn't enjoyed as much success at Watkins Glen as he has at some other tracks in the series, but that should not be a deterrent to fantasy racing deployment this Sunday. McDowell led 14 laps in this event one year ago and nabbed his first-career Watkins Glen Top 10.   

Denny Hamlin – For a long time Hamlin's efforts at the Glen amounted to little more than frustration. He scored Top-10 finishes in his first four starts at the challenging road circuit, but then he experienced a power outage of titanic proportions. Hamlin only cracked the Top 20 once from 2010 to 2015 at the Glen. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has turned struggles into the spectacular at the Glen the last seven years. Hamlin won at this facility in 2016 and he's nabbed four Top-5 finishes in his last six starts at Watkins Glen. He has struggled a bit this season "closing" on these road circuits, but he's had the speed to win pole positions at both Sonoma and Chicago. Hamlin has good skills in this style of racing, and the Glen is perhaps his favorite of the Cup Series road tracks.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has shown flashes of ability in road racing in the recent past. His 2022 victory at Sonoma comes to mind and his four Top-5 finishes over the past two seasons in this style of racing stand out. However, the driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet had struggled this season on the road courses until his spectacular performance at the Brickyard this past weekend. Suarez won the pole, led 6 laps and finished a brilliant third-place in the Verizon 200. That performance broke him out of a four-race Top-10 slump on the road tracks. He should keep the ball rolling for a second-straight week as he's had good success at Watkins Glen. Suarez has made five-career Cup starts here and nabbed three Top-5 finishes (60-percent), including last season's fifth-place effort.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Watkins Glen & solid upside

AJ Allmendinger – The 2023 campaign has been a bit inconsistent on the road circuits for the normally dependable Allmendinger. Accordingly, we have moved him down to the sleepers list this week. His struggles at the Indy GP circuit this past Sunday have led to this downgrade. Still, we cannot overlook his skill in this form of racing and Allmendinger's accomplishments on the road circuits. As inconsistent as he's been this season, Allmendinger still sports a reasonable 50-percent Top-10 rate on these tracks over the past two seasons. His stats at Watkins Glen are incredible with one-career victory and seven Top-10 finishes for a robust 64-percent Top-10 rate. Proceed with caution, but understand the reckonable upside here.    

Chris Buescher – The road circuits have held a lot of success for Buescher and his No. 17 Ford team over the past two seasons. The veteran Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has two Top-5, eight Top-10 and nine Top-15 finishes for a stellar 8.7 average finish on these style tracks. Buescher was an 11th-place finisher this past Sunday at the Brickyard, so he kept this roll going. As it relates to Watkins Glen, he's been a decent performer here over the years, but it was last season's Go Bowling at the Glen where he first cracked the Top 10 (ninth-place) at the facility. That's a good blueprint for this weekend. Clearly this driver and team have figured some things out with the new car and these road circuits. Buescher makes a strong fantasy play for this event.

Joey Logano – Logano is another hot-and-cold inconsistent performer on these road circuits. A good illustration is his two Top 10's in four road racing events this season and corresponding 18.3 average finish. That's been the tale of recent seasons for the No. 22 Penske Ford team in this style of racing. Still, with the risk, there is ample opportunity for reward. Logano really likes the Watkins Glen International circuit. His one victory and six Top-10 finishes (46-percent) shouldn't be easily discounted. In this event one year ago, in the new generation stock car, Logano battled to 15 laps led despite starting 20th on the grid and finished a brilliant third-place in last season's Go Bowling at the Glen.

Christopher Bell – Bell grabbed a steady ninth-place finish at the Brickyard this past Sunday and reminded us he does have fantasy utility in road racing. He won late last year at the Charlotte ROVAL, and Bell has Top 10's this season at both Sonoma and Indianapolis. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota will be making just his third-career Cup Series start at the Glen this Sunday. Bell's two prior starts have yielded dependable seventh- and eighth-place finishes. The young driver is by no means a major threat to stage an upset win at Watkins Glen, but he knows how to make green-flag passes on this circuit and move towards the front. Bell should be a dependable performer in the Go Bowling at the Glen this Sunday afternoon.

Austin Cindric – Cindric has been one of the more consistent producers on the road courses over the past two seasons racing in the new generation stock car. The Penske Racing youngster has netted two Top-5 and six Top-10 (60-percent) finishes on these style tracks. He was a bit subpar this past weekend at Indianapolis (15th-place), but Cindric has nabbed Top 10's at both COTA and Chicago this season. In his Cup Series debut at Watkins Glen International last season, the driver of the No. 2 Ford qualified a strong eighth-place on the grid and finished a reasonable 13th-place in his first start at the facility. We believe he could equal or likely even better that performance this Sunday afternoon.

Chase Briscoe –  It's been a tough season for Briscoe on many fronts, including road racing. However, the driver of the No. 14 Ford delivered the "goods" this past Sunday at the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit. Briscoe piloted his Ford to a good qualifying effort and snatched a strong sixth-place finish for his Stewart-Haas Racing bosses. We're placing our bets that Briscoe stays on a roll since NASCAR is road racing for a second consecutive week. The young driver will be making just his third-career start at the New York circuit, and he has one Top-10 finish in his prior two attempts (average finish 18.0). Briscoe did lead 7 laps in last season's Go Bowling at the Glen, but ran into trouble and finished 25th. We believe he has the ability to scratch the Top 15 on this circuit.      

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Erik Jones – The Legacy Motor Club veteran has had a tough season on the road circuits. Jones has finishes of 23rd-, 32nd-, 16th- and 35th-place in the four events to-date. That works out to a 26.5 average finish and well worse than his career average of 16.8 on road courses. The driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet is on "the struggle bus" as they say and no really good explanation as to why he is having problems. At first glance it would appear to be a qualifying problem as he's had difficulty getting that good starting track position that helps lead to a good finish on these tracks. Jones has some reasonably good historical stats at Watkins Glen (11.2 average finish in five starts), however, his struggles leading into this weekend cause us to recommend the fantasy bench.    

Aric Almirola – As Almirola demonstrated at Indianapolis this past week he's a fish out of water on these road courses. He got in trouble at the back of the field and finished a distant 39th-place in the Verizon 200. Almirola has just two Top-10 finishes in 38-career starts on road circuits and an inflated 21.9 average finish. These tracks are the worst in his Cup Series resume. Watkins Glen International has been particularly challenging for the driver of the No. 10 Ford. Almirola has just one Top-15 finish in 11-career starts for a 22.8 average finish at the facility. His start one year ago at the New York road course netted a 35th-place starting grid spot and distant 29th-place finish.     

William Byron – Despite a pole position and Top-5 finish earlier this season at COTA, the road circuits have been lean tracks for Byron and the No. 24 Chevrolet team the past two seasons. Only two of his last 10 starts have netted Top-10 finishes (20-percent). The 15.2 average finish across that span isn't terrible, and it shows that he tends to finish these races on the lead lap. However, Byron often struggles to convert good starting track position into good finishes despite having a pretty fast car on these style tracks. For his career the Hendrick Motorsports youngster is a 50-percent Top-10 finisher at Watkins Glen International, however, Byron did finish a subpar 22nd-place in this event one year ago in the new generation stock car.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace's 20-percent Top-10 rate over the past two seasons of road racing is a statistic that stands out. It culminates in a lowly 25.9 average finish for the No. 23 Toyota team in this style of racing. The five DNF's over the past two seasons in 10 events of this style is an even more telling statistic. Mechanical issues, on-track incidents, etc. have conspired to derail Wallace's recent efforts in these road racing events. In four-career Cup Series starts at Watkins Glen, Wallace has no finishes better than 23rd-place and an average finish of 27.8. In this event one year ago, the 23XI Racing veteran ran into problems with his suspension and was retired early from the race, finishing a distant 35th-place. It's better to bench Wallace this week and save a fantasy start for him at Daytona.