Gander RV 400 Preview: Pocono the Sequel

This week the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series travels back to Pocono Raceway for the second and final race at the tri-angular oval for this season.  The Pocono races are the closest back-to-back races in the schedule aside from the All-Star Race and Coca-Cola 600 back-to-back weekends.  

This short, seven-week interval between races affords the competitors with a unique, quick turnaround from their first race at this facility.  With that in mind, it's not unreasonable to expect those drivers who performed well the first time around to have a good chance at repeating their success since they'll likely be unloading the same chassis and running a similar if not identical race set-up.  Given the vital information teams gathered here earlier this summer, it's not unusual to see season-sweeps or repeat winners at this 2.5-mile triangle.  Repeating one's success at Pocono Raceway is more likely to happen than at almost any other track that the Monster Energy Cup Series visits.  Those drivers and teams that figured out the fastest way around the Tricky Triangle in June should have a leg up now that we've come to the late-July date at this tri-oval.  However, we can't completely discount current momentum and hot streaks.  They will also play a role in Sunday's Gander RV 400.

Considering that this is the second race of 2019 at Pocono Raceway, we need to take a quick look at the loop stats for this unique facility.  This track is so unlike any other on the circuit that we'll really need to focus on the last race and recent performances at Pocono for this weekend's drivers.  Current trends at this track, including the race this past June, should hold pretty true to form this weekend.  As you'll see in the loop stats below we have an easily identifiable group of drivers that love to race on the three-turn Pennsylvania track.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 14 years or 29 races at Pocono Raceway.

Season sweeps are not common at Pocono, but they're not unheard of either.  Three times in just over the last decade we've seen drivers sweep the season at Pocono Raceway.  Jimmie Johnson did it in 2004 and Denny Hamlin pulled out the broom in 2006.  More recently, Dale Earnhardt Jr. grabbed the broom and swept away in 2014.  We can certainly learn a lot from looking at the race just a few short weeks ago.  It's a better predictor of what could happen this weekend as opposed to recent history or even last season.  The "sweep watch" will fall on Joe Gibbs Racing sensation Kyle Busch this Sunday afternoon.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota out-dueled Brad Keselowski in the closing laps at Pocono in June and picked up his third-career Monster Energy Cup Series victory at the Tricky Triangle.  It was an impressive effort from the veteran driver, and Busch will be a prime contender to win again this weekend.

Busch wasn't the only strong driver that afternoon in June.  There were several strong teams and suitors for victory lane at Pocono.  Erik Jones, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, William Byron and Denny Hamlin all flexed their muscles at the front of the pack.  They're likely the best list of candidates to step up their game for Sunday's Gander RV 400.  Two drivers that were expected to make a big splash in June's Pocono 400 were Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.  Both had really high expectations, but both had their separate issues en route to poor finishes that afternoon.  These two certainly have the capability to rebound given their good historical stats at Pocono Raceway, but it would be wise to use caution before buying fantasy racing shares of either this weekend.  

One other thing to keep in mind this week in Pennsylvania is that Toyota drivers have won the last four Pocono races.  That means that manufacturer parity is currently off line at the three-turn oval.  For Ford, the X-factor this weekend is certainly Harvick.  He unloads dominant race cars each weekend, but somehow finds ways to miss victory lane.  However, that changed this past week with his big win at New Hampshire.  Will the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team find their way back into the win column again this weekend?  There's definitely a good chance.  Considering the recent race at the 2.5-mile triangle and past history of the track, here are the drivers who should give you the edge in winning your league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – Pocono Raceway was once a real puzzle for the Joe Gibbs Racing star, but Busch has turned the tables on the three-turn Pennsylvania oval.  He's grabbed three of the last four Pocono victories, including the last two-straight.  Busch has led well over 300 laps in his last five-combined Pocono starts, and he's converted that time at the front into wins.  Now with three-career Pocono victories in tow, he's the top contender each time the series visits the Pocono Mountains.  Busch held off Brad Keselowski in a strong performance to win in June's Pocono race, and he will look for the season sweep of the track in Sunday's Gander RV 400.

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star has never won at the three-turn Pennsylvania oval, but recent signs have been pointing toward a breakthrough.  Harvick has led 119 combined laps in just the last three Pocono Raceway events.  Those efforts have brought his career Top-5 rate at the oval to a respectable 32-percent.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford is coming off his first win of the season this past week at New Hampshire, so Harvick is earning back his fantasy racing contender status.  He has four runner-up finishes at this 2.5-mile triangle since the 2014 season.  It's just a matter of time before Harvick wins at this race track.   

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is a historically consistent performer at Pocono Raceway.  His Top-10 rate (58-percent) and average finish (11.2) are at elite levels when compared to the rest of the drivers in the series.  Keselowski is looking to build on a pole position and 10th-place finish at New Hampshire this past week, and this is the perfect oval to get him back into win contention.  He has a staggering seven Pocono Top-5 finishes in his last eight starts, and that includes three runner-up finishes across the span.  Considering how well Keselowski performs at this 2.5-mile triangle, it's really surprising that he has only one-career victory here.  His familiarity with Pocono, and the team's runner-up performance here in June should be the edge to carry him to another Top-5 finish at the Tricky Triangle. 

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a four-time Pocono winner, but he's not won at the facility since early 2010.  He's also battled inconsistency and performance struggles at this oval in the recent past.  Despite all this, he's managed to maintain a great level of career performance at this facility.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star owns a 63-percent Top-10 rate at Pocono Raceway and he owns an equally impressive 37-percent Top-5 rate at the oval.  He was racing among the Top-10 here in June and collected a steady sixth-place finish in the Pocono 400.  Coming off a strong runner-up finish at New Hampshire, the No. 11 Toyota team is ready to roar at Pocono Raceway.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Chase Elliott – Elliott's disappointing 29th-place finish at New Hampshire this past week is squarely in the rear view mirror.  Now the Hendrick Motorsports driver visits an oval very much to his liking.  Pocono Raceway has held a lot of success for Elliott in just four seasons of racing.  He has two Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes at the 2.5-mile tri-oval in just seven-career starts.  Elliott's fourth-place finish here in June makes for a five-race Pocono Top-10 streak entering Sunday's action.  With momentum building, and Elliott's confidence growing, this is a great time for the No. 9 team to visit Pocono Raceway.  We expect him to keep his Top-10 streak at this track going after this 400-mile battle.  

Erik Jones – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster tied a career-best Pocono finish with third-place here in June.  He now has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in just five starts at the Tricky Triangle.  It really has become one of his better large ovals on the circuit.  Jones rides a pair of third-place finishes (Kentucky and New Hampshire) into this weekend's action, so current performance has been razor sharp.  The No. 20 Toyota team seems to show up with fast race cars each week, and that's more than half the battle.  Jones clearly likes racing at Pocono Raceway, as his laps led and finishes here testify.  This is a good week to give Jones a spot start in weekly lineup leagues.     

Daniel Suarez – Suarez is coming off a subpar 19th-place finish at the Magic Mile, and will surely be looking forward to visiting the Pocono Mountains this Sunday.  The young Stewart Haas Racing driver loves this 2.5-mile tri-oval.  He registered a steady eighth-place finish here in June's Pocono 400, and that now gives Suarez three Top 10's in just five starts at the challenging track.  In this event one year ago, Suarez won the pole, led 29 laps and battled Kyle Busch all the way to the finish.  He would not win that afternoon, but picked up an impressive runner-up finish at Pocono Raceway.  Given Suarez's road-racing background, it's not surprising that he likes racing at Pocono.  The oval races more like a road course and that suits his driving style.     

Joey Logano – The 2012 Pocono winner will return to Pennsylvania and look to continue building on his recent success at the raceway.  Logano's seventh-place finish here in June gives him two Top 10's in the last three starts at the facility, and boosted his career Top-10 rate to 38-percent.  Logano has reversed some recent struggles with ninth- and seventh-place finishes in those starts.  The No. 22 Ford team has not been leading laps and running at the front among the contenders, and that's primarily the reason for his inclusion in the strong plays list this week.  However, Logano should be good enough to grind out yet another Top 10 in Sunday's Gander RV 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Pocono who can provide a solid finish

Kurt Busch – The three-time Pocono winner showed he could carry his excellent Pocono resume from his older teams to his Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 team with his steady 11th-place finish here in June.  Busch had posted a similar ninth-place finish in the prior race at this facility with his old No. 41 team at Stewart Haas Racing, so his success seems to really hinge on his driving ability.  Those performances fall right in line with his career numbers here.  Busch has 20-career Pocono Top 10's (56-percent) and 14 Top 5's (39-percent).  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has been posting great finishes at some of his favorite ovals this season, and that's a great sign going into the Gander RV 400.   

Aric Almirola – Don't look for Almirola's career numbers at this facility to be very impressive.  However, he's rewriting a lot of his track records this season since joining the No. 10 team of Stewart Haas Racing.  His impressive performance and speed at Loudon, New Hampshire this past weekend is just the most recent example.  Almirola has nabbed two Top-10 finishes in his last three Pocono Raceway starts since joining the SHR No. 10 team.  Those efforts have effectively trumped his prior 11 starts at the facility, which were terribly sub-par.  This driver, team and crew chief are consistent and steady right now, and they have Top 10 cars each week, and sometimes the speed to challenge for the win.     

Clint Bowyer – June and July have been a roller-coaster ride for Bowyer and the No. 14 Ford team.  We're seeing Bowyer make mistakes on pit road and other uncharacteristic mental mistakes at times.  However, given his strong performance at Kentucky recently, we believe the light is finally coming at the end of the tunnel for this driver and team.  Bowyer qualified third, raced with the leaders and finished a strong fifth-place at Pocono Raceway this past June.  That is type of performance to build on and will instill some confidence in the veteran driver.  Bowyer has Top-10 finishes in two of his last four Pocono starts, and that has boosted his career rate at this facility to a respectable 41-percent. 

William Byron – The second-year Hendrick Motorsports driver had a terribly impressive performance the last time we visited Pocono Raceway.  Byron won the pole position, led 25 laps, finished runner-up in stage 1 and finished ninth on the afternoon.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet did a fantastic job staying among the leaders for the full 160 laps, and did not fall back into the field losing very valuable track position.  Byron will try to replicate that performance again in Sunday's Gander RV 400.  Now with three-career starts at this 2.5-mile facility and two Top 10's in tow, it's looking like Byron really likes racing at the Tricky Triangle.      

Ryan Blaney – The young driver of the No. 12 Ford has always liked racing at the Tricky Triangle.  Blaney picked up his first-career win at the track two seasons ago while still racing for the Wood Brothers No. 21 team.  His first start in the Penske No. 12 Ford at Pocono came back in June of last year.  Blaney won the pole, led 11 laps and raced among the leaders all afternoon before finishing an impressive sixth-place.  He now owns three Top 10's in seven-career starts at Pocono Raceway.  The average finish checks in at a very respectable 11.7.  Blaney finished 12th at Pocono just a few weeks ago, but we're willing to bet he'll be better than that this time around. 

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet will be looking forward to a return to big track racing this Sunday.  The Chevy's seem to have found some speed on these big ovals, and that benefits all the bowtie brand drivers.  Bowman has posted third- and 15th-place finishes with this race team in his last two Pocono starts.  The new aero package presented some challenges to him the last time around at this facility, but he still battled through to nab a Top 15.  We're willing bet Bowman and crew chief, Greg Ives, learned a few things.  With some adjustments, there's no reason he can't crack the Top 10 this Sunday afternoon. 

Slow Down – Driver to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson had been racing well until his pair of 30th-place finishes at Kentucky and New Hampshire.  The No. 48 team has suddenly hit a brick wall, and they're visiting an oval that has been tough for the seven-time champion of late.  Johnson boasts three-career wins and 20 Top 10's at this facility, so you'll be challenged to find a more pedigreed driver at Pocono Raceway.  However, more recent visits have been terribly lean.  Johnson has just one Top 10 in his last seven Pocono Raceway starts.  It's better to err to the side of caution this week and keep the No. 48 Chevrolet team on the fantasy racing bench.

Martin Truex Jr. – One of the biggest highlights of Truex's career had to be their dominant Pocono victory in 2015.  Truex led 97 laps that Sunday afternoon and left little to doubt in an impressive win over Kevin Harvick.  Since then the veteran driver of the No. 19 Toyota has gone on to win a second Pocono victory, but he's also battled a lot of consistency issues at the Tricky Triangle.  Truex has one victory and three Top 10's in his last eight starts at the facility.  The 38-percent Top-10 rate is noteworthy, and not the consistency we look for when it comes to fantasy racing deployment.  His last two starts have been quite forgettable with a 15th-place finish in this event one year ago, and an engine failure and 35th-place finish a few weeks ago.  Truex brings race-winning potential to the table, but he also brings a 63-percent chance of finishing outside the Top 10.       

Kyle Larson – The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has picked up the pace in June and July, but his 33rd-place at New Hampshire this past week is a major setback.  Larson used to be pretty impressive at Pocono Raceway, but more recent visits have been very frustrating for the No. 42 Chevrolet team.  With just one Top-10 finish in his last four Pocono starts, Larson has seen his average finish balloon to 13.1 and his Top-10 rate slide to 46-percent.  Those marks were much better prior to his two-season slump at Pocono.  His last two starts have been ineffective 23rd- and 26th-place finishes, with the latter coming this past June.  It's best to pass on Larson this weekend, and opt for more reliable fantasy racing help in the Gander RV 400.

Austin Dillon – To say that 2019 has not been Dillon's season, would be a big understatement.  Currently ranked 22nd in the driver standings, tracking toward five Top 10's for the season, and an average finish somewhere around 21, things have been pretty rough for the No. 3 team.  Things are tracking toward a career-worst campaign for the six-season veteran.  Dillon has just one Top-10 finish since the last Pocono race and things have been pretty rough of late with a three-race string of finishing outside the Top 30.  The last time the series visited Pocono, Dillon crashed and finished 37th that afternoon.  That snapped a nice string of Top 15's for this driver and team at Pocono.  We don't expect a turnaround in Sunday's 400-mile battle.