Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Preview: Short Track Change Up

We make a return this week to the short track circuit after a long stretch of intermediate ovals and road courses.  NASCAR's top division heads to the one-mile, flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 this Sunday afternoon.  

The bull ring at Loudon, N.H., is a true oval with variable banking of two to seven degrees in all turns, and one degree on both straight aways.  It is a flat track in the purest sense.  The handling of the race car is very important at this oval.  How the car turns, how it exits the corners and how it holds the turns will dictate the driver's ability to pass or be passed at NHMS.  A driver and crew chief's patience is tested to the max at this challenging short track.  If adjustments can be made and an ill-handling car can be corrected over the course of a run, that driver and crew chief will reap the rewards of their persistence and patience.  A lack of patience will usually end up in a wreck at this short track, as this typically leads to over-driving the car and pushing the speed/handling envelope a bit too far.  Considering that the last weekend leading up to this event we saw the aerodynamic factor of an intermediate oval, we could see a lack of patience manifest itself this weekend at Loudon.  This oval is where the NASCAR adage "race the track, not the competition" was born.  This short track embodies that statement to the highest degree.

This event is the only time we race at the Magic Mile this season after NASCAR scheduling took away one of the track's two annual dates in 2018.  For tips on what we might expect this weekend, look no further than the earlier races at Martinsville and Phoenix.  All are flat tracks, and while Martinsville is smaller, the handling, setup and racing are quite similar to Loudon.  Phoenix has more speed than NHMS, but the flat track in Arizona boasts some similar characteristics to the oval in New England.  While keeping these races in mind, it will still be helpful to take a look back at the recent historical statistics at the Loudon oval.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 16 years or 29 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has turned into a track of streaks the last few seasons.  Once a manufacturer gets this place figured out, the teams tend to pile up the wins until the competition catches up and unseats them.  From 2012 to 2013 Toyota reeled off three-straight victories at the Magic Mile.  Brad Keselowski's victory in the summer of 2014 broke the Toyota string and set Ford up to win the next two events at the one-mile oval. More recently, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch swept the Magic Mile in the 2017 season and returned Toyota to dominance at the historic short track.  That would last until 2018 when Kevin Harvick won back-to-back Loudon victories for Ford in 2018-19.  Brad Keselowski would then build on that Ford streak by winning last season's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.  Considering that Ford drivers have taken the last three victories at Loudon, that may help this struggling brand as they've found it difficult to visit victory lane in 2021.  Drivers for this brand have only scratched the win column four times in 21 events this season.

In this event one year ago we witnessed Keselowski dominate the afternoon, leading 184 of the 301 laps and fending off Denny Hamlin late to capture the win.  It was a total performance for the veteran Penske Racing driver to claim his second-career win at the New England short track.  There were several suitors for the win that afternoon in Loudon, but Keselowski would rise above them all.  Hamlin dominated much of stage 1, but could not catch up to Keselowski on the last lap that day.  The other strong drivers that afternoon were Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick.  All but Truex are past New Hampshire winners and can pull the upset here given the right circumstances.

Among the leading candidates unseat the Hamlin-Keselowski duo, are Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson and the surging Kurt Busch.  The trio have been the strongest drivers of late and are riding great momentum into New England this weekend.  They should be considered top players for the victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  If Chevrolet hopes to revive their winning ways at Loudon, those hopes will primarily rest with Larson and the older Busch.  Larson has never won at the Magic Mile and we have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last of Busch's three-career wins at Loudon.  We'll take a look at the loop stats, the past history of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and current trends to determine who will dominate this Sunday afternoon at the one-mile oval in Loudon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been improving dramatically at this short track in recent seasons.  Two of Busch's three Loudon victories have come since the 2015 season.  He's led over 1,100 laps at the Magic Mile and more than half of those have come also since the 2015 season.  He's been a winner here as recently as 2017 and Busch sports a strong 38-percent career Top-5 rate at the New Hampshire short track.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota also has four runner-up finishes at this facility, so with just a nudge he could have had many more wins here than just the three.  Busch is on a roll entering the weekend with one win and two runner-up finishes in just the last four races.  He'll be a top contender in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Kurt Busch – Coming off the big Atlanta win this past week, all eyes will be on the No. 1 Chevrolet team this Sunday.  With three-career victories and a solid 41-percent Top-10 rate at the track, Busch has to consider Loudon one of his best short tracks.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has always had success on the series' short tracks.  Busch and his Chip Ganassi Racing team are on fire right now.  The veteran driver comes to New England with one win, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the last five events.  That momentum will carry him into another strong outing at the Magic Mile.  After a long dry spell to start the 2021 season, Busch and his team are in the groove and everything they are doing is flawless right now.  Busch is not to be overlooked at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. 

Kyle Larson –  Larson has been painfully close to winning at Loudon in the past.  He owns three runner-up finishes at the Magic Mile since the 2014 season.  While he's never been a big lap leader here, he always seems to be in good position late in these races at the New Hampshire short track.  Larson's current No. 5 team at Hendrick Motorsports is the best-manned and best-equipped team he's ever brought to New England, so we're expecting big things this Sunday.  With two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts on tracks one-mile in size and smaller this season, things look very good coming into the weekend.  It would not be a surprise at all to see Larson dominate this Sunday in this 301-lap event.   

Alex Bowman – Bowman has won the last two races on ovals one-mile in size and smaller.  Those victories came at Richmond in April and Dover in May.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet is more known for his intermediate oval racing, but he's really been striking the iron on these short tracks this season.  We expect that trend to continue in Sunday's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.  Bowman doesn't have the historical stats at New Hampshire that jump off the page (four Top-15's in his last four starts) but that could change to the dramatic side Sunday afternoon.  He's been one of the Top 5 drivers in the series the last six weeks, and he could surprise at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been sharp as a tack on the short tracks this season.  With one win (Phoenix) and four Top-5 finishes as well as 150+ laps led, Elliott has been one of the top performing drivers on the bull ring circuit.  New Hampshire has been a track of gradual improvement for the young Hendrick Motorsports driver.  Elliott was very poor here earlier in his career, but he's turned that around with Top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts at the Magic Mile.  The short tracks have been a real highlight for this young driver in 2021, and we expect Elliott to take full advantage of that fact in Sunday's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Denny Hamlin – From an average finish standpoint, the bull rings are by far his most successful and consistent tracks this season in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has led 518 laps and grabbed three Top-5 finishes on the short track circuit in 2021, and he'll be looking to build on that this Sunday at the Magic Mile.  Hamlin is a three-time winner at this facility, including his last which came in 2017, and he sports a lofty 41-percent Top-5 rate at the New England short track.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star's last two starts at this facility have netted runner-up finishes.  That has lowered Hamlin's career average finish at Loudon to a miniscule 9.6.  The one-mile track is one of the best short tracks in his resume.

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been a decent performer on the small ovals in 2021.  Logano has led close to 200 laps, finished runner-up at Phoenix and has three Top-5 finishes on the short tracks to this point.  He has always liked racing at the Loudon short track, and it's shown in his finishes there.  Logano is a two-time winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and he has 12-career Top-10 finishes (55-percent) at the Magic Mile.  He rides a four-race Loudon Top-10 streak into Sunday's event, so the success and consistency have been quite recent.  The Penske Racing driver has been finding some more speed of late, so this is a timely visit to New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  Logano should earn a hard fought Top-10 finish this Sunday afternoon.   

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off a strong third-place finish at Atlanta, and it may be signaling a new hot streak for the No. 19 Toyota team.  Truex has been sharp on the short tracks this season with two wins and three Top-5 finishes on tracks one-mile in size and smaller.  The veteran driver has really upped his game at this oval the last five seasons.  Although Truex hasn't won, he's led a staggering 596 laps in the last seven races at this facility.  He's riding a six-race Loudon Top-10 streak coming into Sunday's action.  Considering that Truex won on the small, flat oval of Martinsville earlier this year, we have to give this driver and team strong consideration for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at New Hampshire & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – When we think of short tracks we normally think of Keselowski.  He's a two-time winner at the Magic Mile, including this race last season.  While his chances of winning this weekend are much less than some other drivers, we have to remember his stellar 65-percent Top-10 rate at this oval.  That's right, the Penske Racing star has nabbed 13 Top-10 finishes in 20-career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  This has been a bit of a lean season for the driver of the No. 2 Ford, so we've bumped Keselowski from contender or solid play status to sleeper status this week.  Still, his expertise at this particular track cannot be overlooked, even in what has been a bit of a down year for Keselowski.

Kevin Harvick – The four-time Loudon winner owns 13-career Top-5 finishes in 37 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  That 35-percent Top-5 rate at this flat oval ranks him among the best in the series.  Harvick has led well over 750 laps for his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  Earlier in his career, this wasn't one of his better short tracks on the circuit.  However, the Stewart Haas Racing star has come on strong in recent seasons to reverse that trend.  As to his 2021 performance, Harvick is in a similar position to Brad Keselowski.  He's yet to find victory lane this season and seems to be in the lower half of the Top 10 most weeks.  We expect that to be the case again in Sunday's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has not been great, but he has not been bad on short tracks this season.  Finishes of 10th-, 11th-, 11th- and 12th-place have been his body of work so far.  That's not up to the standards we expect for this young driver, but it's still value.  Blaney is coming off an impressive fifth-place finish at Atlanta, so things may be looking up for the No. 12 Ford team.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway has yielded three Top-10 finishes in eight starts (38-percent) for Blaney to this point.  The more important part of that statistic is that the three Top 10's have come in his last four visits to New England.  Blaney should be another back-end of Top 10 finisher Sunday at the Magic Mile.   

Tyler Reddick – The Richard Childress Racing prodigy has turned in some of his best racing of 2021 in the last month or so.  Reddick has grabbed three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last four starts.  He now comes to New Hampshire Motor Speedway looking to continue the hot streak.  The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has been very sharp in his second Cup Series season of racing on the small ovals.  With a pair of Top-10 finishes (Martinsville and Dover) in four starts, his average finish checks in at a respectable 16.3 for the season so far.  Reddick had a successful Cup Series debut at Loudon last year.  He peddled the team's Chevy to a strong 10th-place finish in last season's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.  Reddick should be a Top-10 threat again this weekend.

Matt DiBenedetto – 10th- and ninth-place finishes the last two weeks may be signaling that the Wood Brothers Racing veteran is heating up.  DiBenedetto has had a bit of an uneven season, but he's showing signs of going on a streak that could boost his stock going into a free agency season ahead.  The Magic Mile had been a stingy short track for the journeyman driver until the last two seasons.  DiBenedetto has earned brilliant fifth- and sixth-place finishes in the last two seasons of racing at Loudon.  Short tracks have not seemed to be a problem this season for the No. 21 Ford team.  DiBenedetto has grabbed one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes for a steady 14.8 average finish this year.  New Hampshire promises to be another highlight in an already good short track campaign.       

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been heating up in recent races.  Jones is coming off second- and eighth-place finishes at Road America and Atlanta and he has three Top 10's in his last five starts.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota will look to carry that success over to the short tracks with our visit to Loudon this week.  The New Hampshire oval yielded a 28th-place finish to Bell in his Cup Series debut here last summer.  However, the young driver really pounded the pavement here in his brief Xfinity Series career.  Bell grabbed back-to-back Loudon wins in the Xfinity Series at this oval in 2018-19.  He dominated both events leading a combined 279 laps.  Bell should show what he's learned Sunday in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

William Byron – Byron has stumbled into a bit of a mini-slump of late.  His last three events have been finishes of 12th-, 33rd- and 20th-place.  That's pretty shocking given the torrid pace of 11-straight Top-10 finishes he reeled off earlier in the season.  Byron was sharp earlier in the season on short tracks, but the last of those events came in May and doesn't really reflect his current level of performance.  New Hampshire has been a decent track for the young driver with three Top-15 finishes in his first three starts, but nothing stellar by any stretch.  At best, Byron is a boom-or-bust fantasy racing pick this week and should be treated as such.  It's best to bench him in weekly lineup leagues.   

Chase Briscoe – The talented rookie has had an up-and-down first season of Cup Series racing in 2021.  Things have been much more positive of late with a Top 10 and Top 15 in the last two events.  However, as we shift back to short track racing this weekend we have to downgrade the Stewart Haas Racing youngster.  Briscoe's four starts this season on ovals of one-mile or less have yet to yield a Top-20 finish and they're averaging a 26.5 finish.  He's had difficulty maintaining the lead lap and has often times fell several laps down by the checkered flag.  This Sunday will be Briscoe's Cup Series debut at the Magic Mile, and without the benefit of practice laps or qualifying.  It's going to be a weekend of learning on the job for the driver of the No. 14 Ford.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – While Stenhouse had been racing well in June, he's sort of hit a rough patch of late.  Two of his last three starts have resulted in DNF's and he's taken a big hit in the point standings as a result.  He'll limp into Loudon this weekend looking to reverse his current luck.  Stenhouse has had a tough racing career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In 13 starts he's grabbed just two Top-10 finishes (15-percent) and his last came way back in 2016.  With an average finish of 21.5 at Loudon, we can't see Stenhouse managing any better than this mark.  At the end of the day it's not fantasy racing-worthy potential.        

Ryan Newman – Despite Newman's truck-load of accomplishments at New Hampshire, we have to stay away from the No. 6 Ford team this weekend.  The veteran driver is a three-time Loudon winner and sports a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate at the New England short track.  However, his 2021Cup Series season isn't going quite as well as hoped.  Newman's 21 starts for Roush Fenway Racing this season have yielded only three Top-10 finishes and an average finish of 21.7.  The short tracks have been particularly tough with no Top-15 finishes and an inflated average finish of 25.0.  Based on his Richmond and Martinsville results, Newman is likely facing another subpar 25th-place finish this week.