Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Preview: Short-Track Change-Up

We make a return this week to the short-track circuit after a long stretch of large ovals and road course racing.  NASCAR's top division heads to the one-mile, flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 this Sunday afternoon.  The bull ring at Loudon, N.H., is a true oval with variable banking of 2-7 degrees in all turns, and one degree on both straight aways.  It is a flat track in the purest sense.  The handling of the race car is very important at this oval.  How the car turns, how it exits the corners and how it holds the turns will dictate the driver's ability to pass or be passed at NHMS.  A driver and crew chief's patience is tested to the max at this challenging short track.  If adjustments can be made and an ill-handling car can be corrected over the course of a run, that driver and crew chief will reap the rewards of their persistence and patience.  A lack of patience will usually end up in a wreck at this short track, as this typically leads to over-driving the car and pushing the speed/handling envelope a bit too far.  Considering that the last several weeks leading up to this event have seen the wide open lanes of large ovals, we could see a lack of patience manifest itself this weekend at Loudon.  This oval is where the NASCAR adage "race the track, not the competition" was born.  This short track embodies that statement to the highest degree.

This event is the only time we race at the Magic Mile this season after NASCAR scheduling took away one of the track's two annual dates last year.  For tips on what we might expect this weekend, look no further than the earlier races at Martinsville and Phoenix.  All are flat tracks, and while Martinsville is smaller, the handling, setup and racing are quite similar to Loudon.  Phoenix has more speed than NHMS, but the flat track in Arizona boasts some similar characteristics to the oval in New England.  While keeping these recent races in mind, it will still be helpful to take a look back at the recent historical statistics at the Loudon oval.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 14 years or 27 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has turned into a track of streaks the last few seasons.  Once a manufacturer gets this place figured out, the teams tend to pile up the wins until the competition catches up and unseats them.  From 2009 to 2012 Chevrolet reeled off six straight victories at the Magic Mile.  Denny Hamlin's victory in the fall of 2012 broke the Chevy string and set Toyota up to win three-straight at the one-mile oval. More recently, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano's victories here in 2014 turned the streak over to Ford and briefly ended Toyota's dominance at the track.  From 2015 through 2017, it was Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota rallying back at the flat short track.  Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth have taken four of the last six Loudon victories in those three campaigns.  That Toyota dominance has largely continued, only to be interrupted by Kevin Harvick and his No. 4 Ford last season.  That win snapped Toyota's stranglehold on the Magic Mile and put Ford back into victory lane here for the first time since 2014.  Considering that Ford drivers have struggled to find victory lane on the short tracks this season, it will be a tall order for drivers of this manufacturer to start a streak at Loudon.  Brad Keselowski's win at Martinsville, however, does give them some hope.

In this event one year ago we witnessed Kevin Harvick wrestle the lead from Kyle Busch during the final green-flag run to the finish, and cruise the last 7 laps to the victory.  He had the right pit and tire strategy and used it to beat the faster Toyota of Busch for his third-career win at the New England short track.  There were several suitors for the win that afternoon in Loudon, but Harvick would rise above them all.  Busch dominated the latter half of stage 3, but could not hold off the hard-charging Harvick that day.  Given Busch's last two weeks of racing at Daytona and Kentucky, it could be a real boost for the No. 18 Toyota team to visit Loudon this weekend.  Among the leading candidates unseat the Busch-Harvick duo, are Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.  Both were strong in last season's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.  They should be players for the victory once again at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  If Toyota hopes to get back to their winning ways at Loudon, those hopes will primarily rest with Busch and Truex.  Busch is a three-time winner at this short track, and Truex has led well over 500 laps in his last five starts at the Magic Mile.  We'll take a look at the loop stats, the past history of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and current trends to determine who will dominate this Sunday afternoon at the one-mile oval in Loudon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off a surprising power outage at Kentucky as we visit the short track in Loudon this weekend.  Truex still has a lot to prove on the short tracks, but this weekend the timing could be right for the No. 19 Toyota team to steal their first win at the Magic Mile.  The veteran driver has really upped his game at this oval the last three seasons.  Although Truex hasn't won, he's led a staggering 596 laps in the last five races at this facility.  He's riding a four-race Loudon Top-10 streak into Sunday's action.  You can guarantee that crew chief Cole Pearn has some tricks of his sleeve this weekend, and Truex is ready to win at this one-mile oval.

Kyle Busch – Years of inconsistency marked Busch's record at New Hampshire, but he's been reversing those trends dramatically the last few seasons.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has also been climbing the driver rating rankings at this track as his performances have improved, and he now sits only second to teammate Denny Hamlin in that category.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has two pole positions, two victories and four runner-up finishes at the Magic Mile in the last 11 events there.  Those efforts bring his Top-5 and Top-10 rates at Loudon to impressive 41- and 56-percent rates.  In the last visit the Monster Energy Cup Series made to Loudon, it was Busch who led 36 laps late in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.  He would watch Kevin Harvick sail by him with 7 laps to go for the win.  Busch will be eager to redeem himself this Sunday afternoon.

Kevin Harvick – The three-time Loudon winner owns 11-career Top-5 finishes in 35 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  That 31-percent Top-5 rate at this flat oval ranks him among the best in the series.  Harvick has led well over 700 laps for his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  While this isn't one of his better short tracks, Harvick generally penetrates the Top 5 here, and occasionally has a car capable of winning.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has won two of the last four events at the Magic Mile, including this race one year ago.  Despite being winless thus far this season, we have to respect Harvick's homerun potential at the Loudon short track.

Kurt Busch – With three-career victories and a solid 43-percent Top-10 rate at the track, Busch has to consider Loudon one of his best short tracks.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has always had success on the series' short tracks.  Good evidence of that was Busch's strong runner-up finish at Bristol Motor Speedway back in April of this year.  As for his most recent Loudon start, he won the pole position, led 94 laps and finished eighth in this event one year ago at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  Coming off the big victory at Kentucky Speedway this past weekend, Busch could easily stay on a roll a the one-mile New England short track.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kyle Larson – The Chip Ganassi Racing star is heating up.  After Larson's fourth-place at Kentucky this past week, he now has three Top-10 finishes in the last four races.  The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet likes racing at the Magic Mile.  He nabbed a pair of Top-3 finishes here his rookie season.  Two seasons ago he nabbed a pair of runner-up finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  That brings Larson's Top-5 rate at this oval to a lofty 44-percent.  With the speed this driver and team are currently displaying, it's hard not to give Larson solid play status this week.  The No. 42 Chevrolet team will be racing with the leaders in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.   

Brad Keselowski – When we think of short tracks we normally think of Keselowski.  He's known for his Bristol and Dover victories, and he's also known for his solid starts and Top-10 finishes on the other small ovals of the circuit.  However, the Penske Racing star has taken a bit longer to grow his Loudon resume.  Keselowski won the 2014 installment of this event and that adds to a tally that includes two poles, 350 laps led and seven Top-5 finishes in 18-career starts.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford has three Top 10's in his last four starts at the Magic Mile heading into this weekend's action.  The short track victory at Martinsville earlier this spring is a very good indicator for Keselowski heading into the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Denny Hamlin – From an average finish standpoint, the bull rings are by far his most successful and consistent tracks in the Monster Energy Cup Series.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is coming off a great Top-5 performance this past week at Kentucky Speedway, and he'll be looking to build on it this Sunday at the Magic Mile.  Hamlin is a three-time winner at this facility, including this event two seasons ago, and he sports a lofty 56-percent Top-10 rate at the New England short track.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has Top-10 finishes in three of his last six starts at this one-mile oval.  Considering that Hamlin has already racked up for Top 5's on the short track circuit this season, he can't be overlooked heading to Loudon.

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been a decent performer on the small ovals in 2019.  Logano has 219 laps led, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on the tracks one-mile in length and less this season.  He has always liked racing at the Loudon short track, and it's shown in his finishes there.  Logano is a two-time winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and he has five Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at the Magic Mile.  The Penske Racing driver has been pretty consistent of late, so this is a timely visit to New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  Logano should earn a hard fought Top-10 finish this Sunday afternoon.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at New Hampshire who can provide a solid finish

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has had an uneven season at best, but his short track performances have been pretty good.  The highlights include a pair of pole positions at Bristol and Dover and a pair of Top-5 finishes that include a second-place effort at the flat oval in Martinsville.  New Hampshire has been a track of gradual improvement for the young Hendrick Motorsports driver.  Elliott was very poor here in his rookie campaign, but rebounded nicely here in 2017 to grab a pair of 11th-place finishes.  Last season he turned in his best performance at the Magic Mile with a fifth-place in this event one year ago.  The short tracks have been a bit up for grabs this season, and we expect Elliott to take full advantage of that fact in Sunday's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Clint Bowyer – The wildcard in the deck is Bowyer and the No. 14 Ford team.  They have been excellent on short tracks this season, and that teases some pretty big potential at New Hampshire.  Bowyer has grabbed one Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on the bull rings in 2019.  He should bring that same speed to the Magic Mile this weekend.  Bowyer is a two-time winner at this New England short track, and he has nabbed a pair of seventh-place finishes in his last three starts at Loudon.  We believe the timing could be right for the No. 14 team to swing for the fences this Sunday and potentially come up big.  Bowyer is a great fantasy racing play with a ton of upside. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been greatly improved on short tracks this season.  He started off the year with a third-place at Phoenix and a pair of fourth-place efforts at Martinsville and Bristol.  That's completely out of character for the driver of the No. 12 Ford and shows some maturation by Blaney on these tough short tracks.  That improvement has been noticeable at New Hampshire as well.  Blaney failed to crack the Top 10 in his first four starts at the one-mile oval, but he's rallied to post ninth- and seventh-place Loudon finishes in his last two starts.  The young Penske Racing driver is finally figuring out how to race the oval and not the other drivers at this facility, and that's ultimately the key to success at Loudon. 

Jimmie Johnson –  Johnson's accomplishments at this oval are nothing short of phenomenal.  He owns three-career wins, 10 Top-5 and 22 Top-10 finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  While those numbers have cooled just a bit in more recent years, Johnson has still posted three Top 10's in his last four trips to New Hampshire.  The short tracks have been pretty reliable for the No. 48 team this season, even though they've dealt with some consistency issues.  Johnson has visited the Top 10 in two of the five races on ovals one-mile or less in size, and registered a respectable 13.6 average finish.  Sunday's race could prove to be an event where most don't see Johnson and the No. 48 team coming, and that makes them a valuable fantasy racing asset. 

Aric Almirola – Forget career numbers at New Hampshire for this veteran driver.  Most will look at Almirola's three Top 10's in 16-career starts and pass up the driver of the No. 10 Ford.  However, it's what he did in this race one year ago that peaks our interest.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran qualified 13th on the grid, led 42 laps during stage 3 and cruised the brilliant career-best third-place Loudon finish.  That was Almirola's first New Hampshire start with the SHR No. 10 Ford team, and we believe more indicative of what to expect this Sunday.  Almirola's outside pole and ninth-place finish at Martinsville earlier this spring is a good indicator of potential heading into this race. 

Ryan Newman – Newman is a three-time winner at the Magic Mile, and he's supported career-long consistency at this one-mile oval for 17 seasons.  The 19 Top-10 finishes Rocket Man has compiled at Loudon check in at a strong 58-percent career rate.  Newman's last start at this facility in this event one year ago netted a strong sixth-place finish for his old boss Richard Childress and the No. 31 team.  The last time the No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing team was at this oval, Matt Kenseth piloted the No. 6 Ford Mustang to a steady 15th-place finish.  That bodes well for Newman's chances to overachieve this weekend.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – While Stenhouse has displayed some good consistency on the larger ovals of late, the short tracks have been a real struggle for the veteran driver of the No. 17 Ford.  He has just one Top-15 finish this season as opposed to three finishes outside the Top 20.  Stenhouse has had a tough career racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In 11 starts he's grabbed just two Top-10 finishes (18-percent) and his last came way back in 2016.  With an average finish of 20.8 at Loudon, we can't see Stenhouse managing any better than this mark.  At the end of the day it's not fantasy racing-worthy potential.        

Alex Bowman – Bowman had a mysterious power outage at Kentucky this past week after sweeping to victory lane two weeks earlier at Chicago.  The last two weeks have been a real adjustment in expectations for the No. 88 team and frankly a bit humbling as well.  The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet is going to be severely challenged to get up off the mat this weekend at the Loudon oval.  Short tracks have not been kind to Bowman thus far in 2019 with just one Top 10 in five starts and average finish of 18.2.  Bowman's seven-career starts at the Magic Mile have been somewhat underwhelming as well.  It appears that there are too many challenges to success for this driver at team at New Hampshire.   

Erik Jones – The surging youngster will cool off a bit at Loudon this weekend, and it won't be those cooler New England temperatures to blame.  Jones has been a near-lock for Top 10's on intermediate ovals this season, but the Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been less effective on the short tracks.  Finishes of 29th-, 30th-, 24th-, 14th and sixth-place work out to a subpar 20.6 average, and well below his intermediate oval average of 11.0 this season.  Jones has the potential to bust this prognostication to pieces, but we'd prefer to err toward the more conservative side.  Keep the No. 20 Toyota team benched this week, and redeploy Jones later in the schedule on a cookie cutter oval.        

Daniel Hemric – This is a weekend for veteran drivers to shine.  That doesn't bode well for rookie Hemric.  This will be his first-career Cup Series start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet does have two-career Xfinity Series starts at Loudon, but both were unremarkable finishes for the No. 21 RCR team.  Hemric's short track resume this season reads like a sad tale.  In five starts thus far he's failed to crack the Top 15, and averaging finishes around 23.8.  Frankly, staying on the lead lap has been an impossible task for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet.  Hemric has yet to finish a short track race on the lead lap this season.  It's best to find your fantasy racing help elsewhere for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.