Formula 1 DFS Picks and Belgian Grand Prix Preview

Rolex Belgian Grand Prix

Location: Stvelot, Belgium
Course: Circuit de Spa Francorchamps
Course Length: 7.004 KM
Laps: 44
 

Belgian Grand Prix Race Preview

The summer break is over, and the F1 calendar now sets up for a nine-race second half of the season. We begin at Spa, which is one of the classic tracks remaining. If we are to for a competitive driver or constructor championship, Ferrari will have to bring a level-headed performance this weekend. Though they often have pace to match – or even beat – Red Bull, Ferrari has made several unforced errors this season that have afforded Max Verstappen an 80-point lead in the driver championship and Red Bull a 97-point advantage in the constructor championship. After a dismal start to the season, Mercedes could legitimately challenge Ferrari for second place in the constructor championship so long as Ferrari continues to get in their own way.

Fourth and fifth place will come down to Alpine –currently the fourth-place team – and McLaren. Given the battle for Oscar Piastri and the impending departure of Daniel Ricciardo, the team that shuts out distractions could emerge among this pair of teams.

Key Stats at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

Races: 54
Won From Pole: 21
Winners from top-five starters: 48
Winners from top-10 starters: 52
Lap Record: Valtteri Bottas 1:46.286

Previous 10 Spa-Francorchamps Winners

2021: Max Verstappen
2020: Lewis Hamilton
2019: Charles Leclerc
2018: Sebastian Vettel
2017: Lewis Hamilton
2016: Nico Rosberg
2015: Lewis Hamilton
2014: Daniel Ricciardo
2013: Sebastian Vettel
2012: Jenson Button

Spa is one of the most exciting and dangerous tracks on the calendar. The latter point has led to modifications in recent years, first in 2007 and then within the last year. The changes shouldn't impact the race from a time or lap length perspective. There has been resurfacing through turns 2-4 and 8 and 9, which could add extra traction/grip and a bit of speed, but that is likely to have marginal effect on the outcome of the race. Gravel has also been added in an effort to enhance track safety, which could make mistakes more costly from a race perspective. 

As for the race outlook itself, six of the last seven race winners have come from pole. That seems to present both Ferrari and Red Bull as the favorites – a position they've held all season. Mercedes is a team to watch due to its recent rise, and Alpine could be the darkhorse thanks to the raw pace they've shown on a one-lap basis. Weather is often a factor at Spa – and can change quickly --  but for now, the weekend is expected to be clear.

As a final note, each of Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Esteban Ocon, Mick Schumacher and Valtteri Bottas has taken power unit penalties and will start from the back of the grid. That changes the outlook of the race significantly. 

DraftKings Value Picks for the Belgian Grand Prix

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Max Verstappen - $12,000
Lewis Hamilton - $10,400
Carlos Sainz Jr.  - $10,000
George Russell - $9,400
Sergio Perez - $8,600

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Fernando Alonso - $7,000
Daniel Ricciardo - $5,200
Sebastian Vettel - $5,000

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Kevin Magnussen - $4,400
Lance Stroll - $4,000
Zhou Guanyu- $3,200 

Constructor Values

Mercedes- $9,900
Alpine -$5,700
Aston Martin - $3,300

Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Belgian Grand Prix

Captain – Lewis Hamilton - $15,600
Sergio Perez - $8,600
Fernando Alonso - $7,000
Kevin Magnussen - $4,400
Lance Stroll - $4,000
Mercedes - $9,900

The grid penalties make this an interesting race to project. We saw Verstappen charge from 10th on the grid to win the Hungarian Grand Prix, so there is some precedent of him making his way through the field under the new regulations. That said, there is an obvious difference between starting 20th and 11th. In tournaments, I'm willing to take the risk on Verstappen, because if he does climb the field he will put up a monstrous score. In cash games, I'd be willing to roster any of Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz Jr., Sergio Perez or George Russell as my captain based on qualifying results.

With so many potential contenders for a race win with Verstappen starting from the back, the middle tiers condense. Ocon is another driver with a penalty, so I like Fernando Alonso as someone I'll try to get into all builds. Ricciardo will have a chance to beat teammate Lando Norris given Norris' penalty, and he could be in for a solid haul of points with a number of midfield drivers (Bottas/Ocon/Schumacher) also taking penalties.

Speaking of Schumacher's penalty, Magnussen should be in a good position to beat his teammate and also be in the mix for points.  Aston Martin has quietly been competitive in recent races, so I like both drivers – who have been relatively even on pace – as value options.  

Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Belgian Grand Prix

Race Winner: Carlos Sainz Jr. (+275), Lewis Hamilton (+275), George Russell (+500), Sergio Perez (+750), Fernando Alonso (+8,000)
Winning Constructor: Mercedes (+145)
Winning Margin: Under five seconds (+130)

As was covered in the DraftKings portion of the article, we should have a relatively wide-open race thanks to all the penalties. I'd be willing to bet on a number of drivers as a result, keeping in mind that odds will shift based on practice runs and qualifying. The name I'd be locked onto in terms of value is Alonso.

Betting on constructor is a bit more limited, because Mercedes could reasonably have two cars in the top four, potentially even both cars in the first two rows. That should give them a tactical advantage over Ferrari and Red Bull in terms of pit strategy and tire management.

The last few races at Spa have been close, with two of the last four racing having the winning margin below four seconds. Only one race in that sample has a winner had a double-digit second margin of victory.