Ford EcoBoost 400 Preview: Four Drivers, One Champion

The finale of the 2019 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series season has arrived.  After 35 events of spectacular crashes, dominating performances and surprise comebacks, we finally have reached the championship-crowning moment of the sport.  The drama has been building all season, and even more so the last several weeks of the Chase.  The Monster Energy Cup Series annual running at the 1.5-mile true oval with variable banking is the last of 36 races that crowns the NASCAR champion.  Homestead-Miami Speedway's unique configuration which includes relatively flat straight-aways of 3 degrees and 20 degree variable banked turns presents a challenge unlike any other facility on the circuit.  It's fitting that this intermediate oval crowns the champion of NASCAR's top racing series. 

Four drivers come to Homestead in a dead-heat for the championship.  The format of the Chase has narrowed the field to just Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin.  It all comes down to one race for all the marbles and all four drivers start even at 5,000 points.  The stakes and the pressure have never been higher.  Hamlin's hopes for a first championship are coming into focus.  After a great performance and victory at Phoenix, the No. 11 team brings a lot of momentum into the season finale.  Considering that Hamlin sits near the top of the loop stat chart below (driver rating 96.7) for Homestead, he has to feel very confident coming into this Ford EcoBoost 400.  The driver with the best shot of foiling Hamlin is likely Harvick.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has been strong on the intermediate ovals during the Chase for the Cup.  

With its recent victory at Texas, the No. 4 Ford team has been gearing up for this finale at the 1.5-mile South Florida oval.  Truex has pulled a bit of a late-season hot streak to advance this far into the Chase.  The veteran driver of the No. 19 Toyota won at Martinsville a few weeks ago to punch his ticket into this one race, winner-take-all finale.  Considering that Truex hasn't been the strongest driver on intermediate ovals this season, he's likely the longest odds driver of the four remaining competitors for the championship.  While Busch is winless during the Chase coming into the championship finale, he has been dialing up his performance of late.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is fresh off a runner-up finish at Phoenix and looking to claim his second championship.  If any of the other championship contenders run into problems at Homestead, it could be the driver of the No. 18 Toyota that swoops in and steals the championship away.  If anything the last two weeks have shown us at Texas and Phoenix, this has been a wild Chase for the Cup and anything can happen.  The racing has been highly competitive and the fall out has made for some wild action on the track.  So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

Since we only come to Homestead-Miami Speedway once a year, we will need to rely on historical information to a great extent for this Sunday's race.  The usual suspects race very well at the South Florida oval, and most of them are championship contenders.  While current hot streaks will play a big part in this week's picks, we'll rely heavily on past data to outline the drivers for the last race of the season.  Here are the loop stats for the last 14 races at Homestead.

This weekend sets up pretty well for Harvick and the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team in their hopes to grab a second Monster Energy Cup Series championship.  As you can see from the table above, Harvick and his team enjoy the second-best driver rating and great loop stats at this South Florida oval.  What this table doesn't show is how the veteran driver recently won at the similar sized oval in Fort Worth.  The chances of Harvick stepping up big on the season finale stage are very good.  For as good as Harvick has been on these style tracks this season, Hamlin has been even more impressive during the campaign.  The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has two victories, and 232 laps led on these style ovals during the 2019 season.  The numbers show clearly that these will be the two front-runners Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  Joe Gibbs Racing star Truex Jr. also has two intermediate oval victories this season and 195 laps led.  His most recent win was at the Las Vegas oval to kick off the Chase.  

If someone hopes to upstage the two lead championship contenders, it will likely be Truex given his recent success at this facility.  As for Busch's chances at the championship, they're somewhat slimmer than the other three.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has only one-career victory at Homestead, and he's winless this season on intermediate ovals.  Unless a couple of the top three contenders go in the tank, Busch won't likely be lifting that coveted trophy this Sunday afternoon.  Regardless of the tale-of-the-tape, tune in to find out who comes out on top because stranger things have happened during this wild season.  If another driver outside the championship picture hopes to steal the thunder on Sunday, it could likely be Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott.  The two were eliminated from the Chase recently, but that makes them no less dangerous on a track such as Homestead.  The two have combined for four-career Top-5 finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway in just nine combined starts, so they could possibly upstage the champion with a dominant performance in the Ford EcoBoost 400.  We'll look at the championship contenders, and the non-Chase teams that could finish the season on a good note.  We'll give you the drivers you need to dominate the 2019 season finale at Homestead.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran comes to Homestead seeking his second championship.  Harvick really turned things up a notch over the last month.  He has put together a four-race Top-10 streak including a victory at Texas.  In 18-career starts at Homestead, Harvick has never finished outside the Top 20 and he sports one victory, 10 Top-5 and 16 Top-10 finishes with 373 laps led.  The No. 4 team has been pretty strong on intermediate ovals this season.  Harvick won at Texas and finished inside the Top 10 at both Las Vegas and Kansas.  He rides a five-race Homestead Top-4 streak into this weekend's action.  If there's a driver in the field to beat this weekend, it's Harvick and his No.4 SHR Ford team. 

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin seems to be in the midst of a magical season at Joe Gibbs Racing.  He has six victories and is coming off an upset win at Phoenix that qualified him for this championship round at Homestead.  Hamlin has two victories and five Top-5 finishes in the last six races of the playoffs.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star seems to be within arm's reach of his first NASCAR championship.  Homestead has been a very successful oval for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota.  Hamlin has two-career victories and nine Top-10 finishes at the South Florida track.  He has captured three of the last four pole positions at HMS, so he's a strong qualifier at this intermediate oval.  Hamlin hasn't been this close to capturing the championship since 2010, so you can bet he won't waste the opportunity Sunday in the Ford EcoBoost 400. 

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is poised to challenge for a second NASCAR championship to go along with his 2017 title after winning this event that season.  With victories at both Charlotte and Las Vegas on these size ovals, Truex has been good but not dominant on these style tracks in 2019.  However, Truex has been known to up his performance seemingly out of nowhere when it really counts, and that sets up similarly for Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  Truex has good career numbers at HMS with one victory and nine Top 10's in 14 starts.  That works out to a strong 10.8 average finish.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has his eyes on the prize, and he finished runner-up in this event one year ago.  So you know Truex is out for redemption in this winner-take-all race.

Kyle Busch – Busch will get his shot to claim a second championship in a one-race winner-take-all scenario.  Up until this event four years ago, Busch had never won at the South Florida oval.  However, the pressure to perform birthed a champion in that single race on this big stage.  Busch's intermediate oval performance during the Chase have been a bit more miss than hit, but we expect the No. 18 JGR team to show up with their A-game this Sunday.  He has a win and rides a four-race Homestead Top-10 streak into Sunday's action.  Busch will be a hungry driver and willing to do anything to win another Monster Energy Cup Series championship.  He'll be a top contender in this 400-mile season finale.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – Larson had a good season by most measures, but the inability to win has been a problem, and his inability to advance deep into the Chase the ultimate takeaway from 2019.  He and the Chip Ganassi Racing team come to South Florida this weekend looking to build some momentum going into the off-season.  One style of oval has been good for the No. 42 team this season, and that's the 1.5-mile tracks.  Larson has racked up two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on these circuits during the season, including strong second- and fourth-place finishes at Chicago and Kentucky during the summer.  Homestead has been a good oval for this driver and team.  Larson has led 324 laps combined and captured three Top-5 finishes in his last four starts at the South Florida facility. 

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing driver is out of the championship picture as we visit Homestead-Miami Speedway.  Denny Hamlin's win at Phoenix this past week knocked Logano out of the championship round at Homestead.  The good news is that this is an oval where he has been improving greatly over the last few seasons.  Logano rides a four-race Top-10 streak at Homestead-Miami Speedway into this weekend's season finale.  That has boosted his career Top-10 average to 50-percent.  Intermediate ovals have been good circuits for the No. 22 team in 2019.  Logano has four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in the 10 events to-date.  Ninth-, 17th- and fourth-place finishes during the Chase are a good barometer for this weekend.  Logano is poised to crack the Top 10 in Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400. 

Ryan Blaney – The young Penske Racing driver has had a great season, and it's the hope of the No. 12 team that they end the campaign well this Sunday.  The intermediate ovals of the Chase have held some success for Blaney.  He has two Top-10 in three starts on ovals of this style and size in the last nine weeks.  This will be the young driver's fifth-career start at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  The four prior starts haven't held much success for Blaney.  However, this is a different driver and team coming into the Ford EcoBoost 400.  Blaney was solidly in the running for this season's championship until his elimination at Phoenix this past week.  He should fetch his first-career Homestead Top 10 in Sunday's 400-mile race. 

Brad Keselowski – The driver of the No. 2 Ford comes into this season's finale not a part of the championship picture, and that must torture the Penske Racing star.  Keselowski has shown at times during the Chase that he has his old swagger back, but at times he's been mysteriously sub-par.  His good finish at ISM Raceway this past week is a good example of the potential.  Keselowski has been very consistent on the cookie cutter ovals this season with two victories and five Top-10 finishes.  The wins came earlier in the season, but he did register a strong third-place finish at Las Vegas to kick off the Chase.  Homestead-Miami has been good for the No. 2 team in recent seasons.  Five of his last six starts have netted Top-10 finishes for Keselowski.  He should be pointed towards another Top 10 Sunday afternoon.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Miami & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott comes to South Florida this weekend looking to recover from a late-season collapse.  He will not be racing for the championship, but that shouldn't deter him from finishing the season strong.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet had some rough luck of late, so we've moved Elliott to the sleepers list this week as a result.  The good news is that he has done particularly well on the cookie cutter ovals of the Chase with 16 laps led a pair of Top-5 finishes in the three events so far.  That sets up very well for Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend.  Elliott will be making just his fourth-career start at the 1.5-mile Florida oval, but that should be of little concern.  The young driver has finishes of 11th-, fifth- and seventh-place in his three prior starts.

Erik Jones – With his seventh- and 10th-place finishes at Kansas and Texas during the Chase, the intermediate ovals have been great tracks for the No. 20 Toyota team this season.  Jones has tallied three Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes on the cookie cutter ovals in 2019.  This will be his third-career start at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  His two prior starts at the South Florida oval have been nothing to write home about.  However, Jones should be able to show what he's learned about racing at this facility to this point.  This young driver and team are rounding out the season in pretty good fashion.  Jones has three Top 10's in his last four starts entering this weekend.  He should be a steady performer in the Ford EcoBoost 400.     

Aric Almirola – Almirola gave a good performance this season, but failed to make a deep run in the Chase.  However, he's surging to end the season, and that's a great sign for 2020.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran will have a homecoming of sorts this weekend visiting South Florida.  Although the No. 10 Ford team won't be racing for the championship, they'll be racing for pride this Sunday afternoon.  Almirola has three-career Top 10's in nine starts at the Homestead oval.  The last of those was a ninth-place finish in this event one year ago.  The veteran driver has been pretty dialed-in on the 1.5-mile tracks this season.  He owns four Top-10 finishes in 10 starts this season, including a brilliant runner-up performance at Texas a couple weeks ago.  We like Almirola's chances to finish the season strong Sunday afternoon.

Kurt Busch – Busch saw his championship hopes evaporate after the first round of the Chase, but he's had a tremendous season regardless of that outcome.  His ninth-place finish at Texas two weeks ago show that the No. 1 team has their act together on the intermediate ovals right now.  Busch has had these style ovals pegged most of the season, with one win and seven Top 10's in 10 starts.  In his 18-career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has two poles, one victory and seven Top 10's.  Given his recent Top 10 at the similar sized oval in Texas he should have plenty of speed for this 400-mile event.  Busch should crack the Top 10 Sunday afternoon in the Ford EcoBoost 400.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer didn't exactly have the season he planned for at Stewart Haas Racing.  There were some bright spots along the way to be sure, like Top-5 finishes at Indianapolis and the Charlotte Roval.  However, his late-season malaise and failing to advance deep into the Chase isn't exactly what he and the No. 14 team set out to do.  A big part of those struggles in 2019 have been his inconsistency and inability to win races.  However, Bowyer's last two starts on these style tracks have netted eighth- and 11th-place finishes at Kansas and Texas.  That's a hopeful sign heading into Sunday's season finale.  Homestead has been an oval of success for this veteran driver with a 54-percent career Top-10 rate after his eighth-place finish in this event one year ago. 

Alex Bowman – We can look back on the 2019 campaign and say it was somewhat successful for the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet.  Bowman had his ups-and-downs, but he still forged career win number one and 11 Top-10 finishes.  Things should continue to grow going forward into 2020 for this young driver.  Bowman claimed the victory and five of those 11 Top 10's on intermediate ovals.  Finishes of sixth-, 11th- and fifth-place recently on cookie cutter ovals during the Chase are just the latest examples.  This will be Bowman's fifth-career start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, so he's not short on experience here.  However, this will be his best start to-date at the South Florida track.  The ceiling should be pretty high for the No. 88 team this weekend.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang comes to Homestead this weekend making his last-ever start for Roush Fenway Racing.  Stenhouse will part ways with team after the season finale to make room for the incoming Chris Buescher next season.  While the veteran driver will want to end the season on a good note, it will be tough odds for Stenhouse.  Intermediate ovals have held little success for this driver and team during the Chase for the Cup.  Stenhouse has finishes of 26th-, 16th- and 40th-place at Las Vegas, Kansas and Texas recently.  That has pulled his season average finish down on the intermediate oval tracks.  Homestead-Miami Speedway hasn't been the best facility over his career at RFR.  Stenhouse has just one Top-15 finish in seven-career starts and a 23.7 average finish at the facility.  Those are not reassuring numbers heading into Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400.  

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time Monster Energy Cup champion will not be racing for a record eighth championship this Sunday afternoon.  The No. 48 team is limping into this season finale after a subpar season and failure to make the playoff field.  Johnson's last intermediate oval outing was a poor 34th-place finish at Texas two weeks ago.  His body of work in the last four 1.5-mile oval starts has yielded a 21.3 average finish.  Johnson's Homestead record over the years has generally been a mixed bag, but he does sport a 61-percent Top-10 rate at HMS.  His last two starts at the South Florida track have resulted in 27th- and 14th-place finishes.  There's simply too much risk to deploy Johnson in your fantasy racing lineups this weekend.

Darrell Wallace Jr. – With his controversial spin and penalty at Texas recently and his 25th-place finish at Phoenix this past weekend, we have to recommend the fantasy racing bench for Wallace and the No. 43 team this week.  The intermediate ovals have been tough on the No. 43 RPM team in 2019.  Wallace has no Top-20 finishes and four finishes outside the Top 25 in these 10 races of the season.  The average finish is checking in at a lofty 26.0.  Finishes on these ovals during the Chase have been even worse with 23rd-, 35th- and 24th-place efforts.  Sunday will mark Wallace's second-career start at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  He could be looking at a long day of continued learning at this speedway. 

Daniel Hemric – Hemric will wrap up his rookie season and last race in the No. 8 RCR Chevrolet this weekend.  The team is letting him go in favor of up-and-coming prodigy, Tyler Reddick in 2020.  Hemric will make the best of this last start with the team in hopes of showing his skills off for any teams looking for driving help.  However, it's a tall task in this very competitive season finale.  Hemric's last five starts on intermediate ovals have yielded no Top-15 finishes and a 21.4 average finish.  This Sunday's start will also mark Hemric's Cup debut at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and that's not a positive sign either.  He has two Xfinity Series starts at the South Florida speedway, so Hemric is not long on experience racing here.