Food City Dirt Race Preview: NASCAR Goes Dirt Racing

For something completely different, NASCAR is throwing everyone a curveball this week with the first Cup Series race of the modern era on dirt at the Bristol Motor Speedway.  The sanctioning body in combination with the speedway conceived this idea late in 2020. The idea was to bring in truck loads of clay and dirt and convert the historic half-mile oval into a dirt track. Normally, we would race 500 laps on the asphalt high banks of Bristol.  However, for this event NASCAR has shorted the distance to just 250 laps.  A race in this oval on dirt is uncharted waters of sorts, so the sanctioning body has shorted the length of the race accordingly. We will still go stage racing on the dirt surface.  The 250-lap main event will be divided into stages of 75/75/100 laps.

There will also be practices and qualifying this week, breaking with the recent trend of no practice and qualifying.  This unique event on this surface demanded some practice and qualifying laps, so NASCAR obliged to help the drivers and teams.  There will be two practice sessions on Friday to help get drivers accustomed to the unique surface at Bristol.  Additionally, there will be four qualifying heat races of 15 laps each on Saturday that will set the grid for Sunday's main feature event.  Drivers will accumulate passing points in the qualifying races, and that will be the basis for determining the starting grid of the main feature race. 

Since this is a one-of-a-kind unique race, we'll have to take the Bristol historical stats in context this week.  The statistics below are for the asphalt oval, and really not too applicable to what we will see this weekend other than to get an idea of the top short track performers.  Hot streaks coming into this race will be a bigger factor of who could succeed in this unique racing event.  We'll take a look at who's hot coming into the Dirt Race as well as which drivers have a strong history of racing on dirt prior to coming to NASCAR.  Those will be the biggest keys in developing our driver lists this week.  The statistics in the table below are the traditional racing stats at Bristol Motor Speedway.  This will be good set of numbers to review to see who has been dominant on the Bristol oval the last several years.  

Normally, we would recap recent races at the Bristol oval to lay out top contenders and solid plays for this weekend's race.  However, this event's unique format and racing surface will dictate that we take a long hard look at the drivers with the most experience and most decorated racing off the paved tracks of NASCAR.  A number of Cup Series regulars make forays into the world of dirt racing.  Whether it be sprint cars or late models, these drivers have piled up some major accomplishments in recent years, and we'll take those into account when forming our fantasy racing lists for this week.  We'll also layout the currently streaking drivers and the short track experts and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing league at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Coming off the strong performance and runner-up finish at Atlanta last week, Larson will now set his sights on the Bristol dirt track.  The Hendrick Motorsports star is one of the most decorated dirt-track drivers in the field.  Larson owns multiple titles across Sprint Car and other dirt-track racing, which include: 2016 Eldora Dirt Derby winner, two-time Chili Bowl Nationals winner (2020 and 2021), 2020 Hoosier Hundred winner, 2020 Pennsylvania Speedweeks winner and 2020 Indiana Midget Week winner.  All combined, Larson had 43 victories on the dirt in 2020 alone, for a winning percentage approaching almost 50-percent.  Last season's campaign was one of the most prolifically successful seasons in dirt racing history.  Larson truly is on another level.  His outing last weekend in the Bristol Dirt Nationals late model event yielded a runner-up finish and great experience he'll employ this week.

Christopher Bell – The only driver in the field with a list of dirt racing accomplishments that can even come close to rivalling Larson is Bell.  The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver from Oklahoma is a three-time Chili Bowl Nationals winner (2017-19), 2015 Eldora Dirt Derby winner, three-time Turkey Night Grand Prix winner (2014, 2017 and 2018) and the 2013 USAC National Midget Series champion.  Bell cut his teeth on the dirt tracks of America before moving to NASCAR, much like Larson.  He is the only three-time winner of the Chili Bowl Nationals in the history of that event.  Now, in his first full season officially with Joe Gibbs Racing, Bell has already visited victory lane this young season.  Bell carved out an impressive win on the Daytona Road Course in the second event of the season.  The short tracks have always been a strong suit for this driver, and racing on dirt is really the roots of his racing experience.  Bell will be a top contender to win in Sunday's main feature. 

Austin Dillon – While Dillon doesn't have the major accomplishments of the other two contenders above him in this list, he still has an impressive dirt racing resume.  At a young age Dillon transitioned from Bandolero cars to late model dirt racing.  For close to three years he traveled the country in pursuit of racing the late models on the dirt tracks of America.  Dillon collected many wins during this three-season run.  Once his NASCAR career got rolling, the Richard Childress Racing driver took the win in the inaugural 2013 Eldora Dirt Derby.  That victory is by far his biggest accomplishment in this style of racing.  More recently, Dillon entered last weekend's Bristol Dirt Nationals and earned a victory in the 604 Late Model feature.  He dominated that 20-lap event, leading the entire race.  It was one of three victories last week for Dillon between heat races and features.  It was a very good tune up for what's coming Sunday afternoon at Bristol. 

Ryan Blaney – The dirt racing blood lines run deep in the Blaney family.  Ryan's father Dave was the 1984 USAC Silver Crown champion and 1995 World of Outlaws champion.  He was a very accomplished sprint car driver before transitioning into NASCAR.  Ryan is a third generation racer in this family.  The Penske Racing star didn't make a career on dirt before moving to NASCAR, rather he dominated the Quarter Midgets, Bandoleros and Legends before moving into late model stock cars.  Blaney showed his skill on dirt in capturing a qualifying heat race win in the 2014 Eldora Dirt Derby.  He would go on to finish a brilliant third-place later that night in the main feature.  Blaney doesn't have the resume of the other drivers in this contenders list, but he does have the experience and skill to challenge for the win.  Coming off the big Atlanta victory this past week, the No. 12 Ford team will be riding some big momentum into the Bristol Dirt Race. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is the active wins leader at Bristol Motor Speedway with eight total victories.  However, those eight wins came on the pavement.  Busch will have to adapt quickly if he wants to make his ninth Bristol win on the dirt.  While Busch's racing roots were primarily in Bandoleros and Legends before moving into late model stock cars, he's not completely untested on the dirt.  The Prelude to the Dream exhibition race was a NASCAR-heavy pro driver invitational that ran from 2005 to 2012 at Eldora Speedway.  Busch entered that event six times from 2007 to 2012.  He captured the win in the 2012 installment and final race of the invitational.  Busch collected five Top-5 finishes in his efforts in that star-studded dirt race, including a runner-up finish in the 2007 event.  While he's not as experienced or decorated on dirt as the drivers in the contenders group, Busch should still have some surprising skills to put on display. 

Denny Hamlin – The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has started the 2021 season on fire.  With five Top-5 finishes through the first six events, Hamlin comes to Thunder Valley this week squarely atop the championship standings.  He'll hope to ride that momentum into another Top 5 effort on the dirt.  Hamlin started his racing career on go-karts at the age of 7.  He raced his way up through the divisions into late model stocks by 2000, but he was never one much for racing on the dirt.  While Hamlin doesn't have the dirt racing background that would make him a slam dunk for fantasy racing selection this week, he does boast great short track racing success throughout his long career.  His two-career Bristol wins and near-50-percent Top-10 rate at the track speak of the success.  Hamlin is not completely unfamiliar with racing on dirt as he claimed a pair of Top-5 finishes between 2006 and 2012 during the Prelude to the Dream series at Eldora Speedway.

Chase Briscoe – The two-time Eldora winner was raised on dirt-track racing.  Briscoe became the youngest driver to win in a 410 sprint car race, beating Jeff Gordon's previous mark by one year.  He then went on to establish a very successful career racing on dirt up until his transition to NASCAR starting in 2013.  Briscoe owns and operates a World of Outlaws team named Chase Briscoe Racing.  After establishing a foothold in NASCAR, Briscoe would go on to win the 2018 Eldora Dirt Derby and underscore his ability to race on the dirt-tracks.  The driver of the No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing Ford has had a slow start to his 2021 season with just two Top-20 finishes to this point.  However, this event marks an opportunity for Briscoe to thrive and jump start his slow season heading into the coming weeks.    

Tyler Reddick – The Richard Childress Racing youngster was a prodigy on dirt long before he made his move into NASCAR in 2013.  Reddick cut his teeth in Outlaw Karts as a child, and he raced every form of dirt racing from there up to age 16.  Among his many accomplishments: He was the youngest driver to qualify for the pole position at the Eldora Speedway World 100, youngest winner at the East Bay Winter Nationals, youngest winner in the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series, and he's the youngest driver to qualify for a feature race in the World of Outlaws.  Reddick put those dirt skills on display winning two qualifying heat races for the Eldora Dirt Derby NASCAR race in 2015 and 2016.  He would go onto finish a strong third- and fifth-place in those two main features.  Reddick has raced with the best in the business on dirt and held his own very well.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Bristol & solid upside

Chase Elliott – The defending Cup Series champion was raised racing on the asphalt short tracks out the Southeast.  However, Elliott has shown an interest in racing on the dirt more recently.  The Hendrick Motorsports star recently entered the dirt late model race at the Bristol short track in order to prepare for this weekend.  While he crashed out of his qualifying heat race, Elliott earned some valuable experience on this same Bristol surface.  Back in the winter between NASCAR seasons, Elliott ran his first midget race at Millbridge Speedway in North Carolina.  He used that as a great intro to prep for this season's Chili Bowl Nationals and subsequent USAC National Midget Championship.  In essence, Elliott has taken a crash course in dirt-track racing over the winter.  Given his good aptitude at Bristol on the pavement, we believe he'll bring some value to fantasy racing players on the dirt as well.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has deep roots in dirt-track racing.  Stenhouse started out at a young age racing go-karts and then quickly graduated to sprint cars at the age of 16. During his time in this form of racing, the Mississippi native earned rookie of the year honors and won many races across USAC and midgets.  By the time Stenhouse moved into NASCAR, he never forgot his dirt racing roots.  He co-owns a World of Outlaws team and still participates in that to this day.  In addition to his dirt racing background, Stenhouse has always been a steady performer at the Bristol short track.  He has a five-season run at the half-mile oval where he was hardly ever seen outside the Top 10.  Stenhouse is a great sleeper play for the Food City Dirt Race.     

Erik Jones – Jones started racing quarter midgets on dirt at the age of 7 and he continued for several years before eventually moving to the asphalt at age 13.  While the Richard Petty Motorsports driver moved away from dirt, he never forgot his racing roots.  Jones has become an accomplished stock car driver since moving to NASCAR, and he's shown a particular skill at short track racing.  We would credit his racing roots for this trait.  Bristol is a track where Jones has had a lot of success.  His eight-career Cup starts have yielded four Top-5 finishes and a strong average finish of 13.0.  The high banks of Bristol really appeal to his talents.  As Jones showed in his couple starts in the Eldora Dirt Derby, he's capable of winning heat races, and he even cracked the Top 5 in the 2015 installment of that event at Eldora.  We believe the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet has lots of potential in this Sunday's race on the Bristol dirt.  

Ryan Newman – The Midwest racing product was tearing up the dirt ovals of this part of the country long before Newman ever climbed into a NASCAR stock car.  The Roush Fenway Racing driver has over 100 feature wins and two national titles in midget racing.  Those accomplishments cemented Newman's placement in the Quarter Midget Hall of Fame.  From there, he moved onto USAC and became the first driver to win in all three divisions while being Silver Bullet Series champion in 1999.  Newman would accomplish everything he could on dirt before eventually moving into NASCAR in 2000.  It's been a long time since the driver of the No. 6 Ford raced on dirt, but we're sure he hasn't forgotten very much.  Newman raced the Gateway Dirt Nationals in 2019 and it was his first time racing on dirt in 20 years.  He showed continued improvement through that event and really opened some eyes.  Newman plans to race on the dirt at Bristol in the Camping World trucks.  It will be a good preview and prep for Sunday's race.  We believe Newman will have significant fantasy value in the Food City Dirt Race.

Ty Dillon – Dillon started racing go-karts and Bandoleros and followed a similar development path to his older brother Austin.  The younger of the Dillon brothers also followed Austin into the dirt prior to transitioning into NASCAR.  Dillon would race for a couple seasons in dirt modifieds and late models and become very skilled at that form of racing.  Perhaps his biggest trophy on the dirt came in his 2015 win at Volusia Speedway Park during the DIRTCar Nationals in an open-wheel modified.  In NASCAR, he made five starts during the Eldora Dirt Derby span of races.  Dillon earned one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in those five starts and averaged 10.8 finish across those events which were 30-to-32 car fields.  Dillon will pilot the No. 96 Gaunt Brothers Racing Toyota this weekend at Bristol.  His deep dirt racing roots and experience should be of great benefit to this small race team.    

Stewart Friesen – Friesen is the last winner of the now-defunct Eldora Dirt Derby.  He took the win in that event in 2019.  It capped a three-season run of finishing in the Top 3 at Eldora and really showed Friesen's skill on the dirt short track.  In addition to being a full-time driver in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, he also races part-time on dirt.  Halmar Friesen Racing that fields his NASCAR truck also fields an entry for him to compete on dirt tracks across the country.  Friesen is a four-time track champion at the dirt-track Fonda Speedway, and he's won over 230-career victories in the World of Outlaws.  This Sunday he'll pilot the No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet.  Friesen could be the bolt from the blue that not many NASCAR fans see coming this weekend.  Even though he's competing with this small race team, he has the skill to outperform many of the drivers on the track this Sunday afternoon. 

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. – Short tracks really never have been Truex's cup of tea.  He's been a long-suffering driver at the high banks of Bristol for many years.  Truex has just three Top-10 finishes in 30-career starts at this half-mile oval and his career average finish stands at a lofty 20.7.  When you consider that's racing on the asphalt and not on dirt, one has to wonder what his potential really is for this first race of the modern era at Bristol on dirt.  Truex will compete in a Kyle Busch Motorsports' truck in this week's truck race at BMS to get prepared for this weekend.  That experience will help, but given his background racing on pavement, and his career-long struggles performing at this particular oval, we can't recommend risking a start on Truex in the Food City Dirt Race.    

Aric Almirola – The driver of the No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing Ford is in much the same position as Truex this weekend.  His racing background on pavement will not serve him well this week.  Despite watching his grandfather race sprint cars on dirt while growing up in Florida, Almirola didn't have that same upbringing.  Since joining NASCAR in 2005 this veteran driver has never really raced on the dirt, outside of a few recent tests.  His Bristol resume on the pavement is one of many years' struggles.  Almirola's 23-career BMS starts have only yielded four Top-10 finishes (17-percent) and an inflated 24.1 average finish.  Unfortunately, the Stewart Haas Racing veteran will be overshadowed by many experienced dirt track racers in the field this weekend. 

Michael McDowell – McDowell's background in open-wheel formula racing and Grand-Am racing has served him well in progressing and growing his NASCAR racing career.  This season's Daytona 500 winner has made a big splash in 2021 with his Front Row Motorsports race team.  However, this is likely a week to put McDowell on the fantasy racing bench.  His lack of experience racing on dirt coupled with his general struggles at Bristol Motor Speedway throughout his NASCAR career are the biggest reasons to pass on the driver of the No. 34 Ford.  McDowell has only cracked the Top 10 once in 21-careet starts at BMS.  The 5-percent Top-10 rate and 29.9 average finish at the half-mile oval check in among the worst statistics at this facility among the full-time veteran Cup Series drivers.     

Ross Chastain – Chastain was raised racing on the asphalt ovals of Florida.  He was quite a skilled and accomplished short track driver during his formative years.  Chastain would score over 50 feature wins and the 2011 World Series of Asphalt at New Smyrna Speedway.  However, none of the Chip Ganassi Racing veteran's accolades have come on dirt.  The lone experience we can find of Chastain's NASCAR career was his 2019 entry into the Eldora Dirt Derby.  He finished a steady 12th-place in the 32-car field that evening at Eldora.  Still, we have to be pessimistic about his chances in this race into uncharted waters at Bristol.  Bristol Motor Speedway ranks as one of his worst short tracks in the Cup Series with no Top 10's and a 30.0 average finish across four starts.  His No. 42 Chevrolet team will be the best-equipped team he's ever brought to Bristol, but racing on the dirt will be a huge challenge for this veteran driver.