Food City 500 Preview: Short-Track Battle

Much like the super speedways, you don't want to be in the eye of the storm when things go wrong. The teams that can pull off the right handling setup and qualify up front will likely stay out of the worst part of the battle in this 500-lap event. You don't want to deal with the handicap of starting beyond mid-pack and having to navigate the field as the leader is bearing down on your rear bumper. Since this will be our first time racing at the Tennessee short track since last summer there are some unknowns entering the weekend but it's probably safe to say we'll see some contact and hot tempers at the completion of 500 laps at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Since this is the second of the season's short-track races, we'll have to put a lot of stock into the historical data as well as the current hot streaks to get a feel for this weekend's top drivers. The recent Martinsville race was a short-track event, but nothing at all like the action we'll see this Sunday afternoon. Recent statistics at Bristol Motor Speedway will be an invaluable tool in evaluating our driver lineup. That information combined with who has the hot hand right now will be our primary indicators. The loop stats in the table below span the last 12 years or 24 races at the Tennessee short track. This will be a dependable set of data to judge the best of the short-track drivers in the series.

The other manufacturer that will play a big card this weekend is Toyota. Joe Gibbs Racing has struggled to find victory lane to this point in the season, but Bristol could be the race that breaks that dry spell. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth have won 10-combined victories at Bristol Motor Speedway over the years. Most recently it has been Kenseth and the recently-retired Carl Edwards that have won in the last two seasons at BMS for Gibbs and Toyota. Considering that Busch has five-career wins at Bristol and how strong he was a couple weeks ago at Martinsville, the No. 18 Toyota team will likely lead the charge for this camp this weekend. The Chevrolet drivers that will draw a lot of scrutiny this weekend will be Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott. The Larson phenomena struggled at Martinsville, so we'll have to see if he can rebound at this tough short track in Bristol. Johnson won before the off week at Texas, and we'll have to see if that momentum bounce is enough to give him a big Bristol performance. As for Elliott, he's still searching for career victory number one. Considering how strong he's been this young season and that he finished fourth in his Bristol debut one year ago, the odds are decent that the No. 24 Chevrolet could be up front this Sunday afternoon and vying for the win. We'll layout the streaking drivers and the short track experts and give you the drivers to dominate your fantasy league at the Bristol mixing bowl.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is a two-time winner at the Bristol oval, but hasn't tasted victory here since 2012. The Penske Racing star served notice a few weeks ago that he's on the short track comeback trail with his big win at Martinsville Speedway. That was his first-career victory at that tough short track, so a visit to BMS is very timely for the No. 2 Ford team. Keselowski has led nearly 500-career laps at the half-mile Tennessee track, so we're used to seeing him race up front here in the recent past. Keselowski has had strong race cars to this point in the season, so that makes him a weekly contender for the win no matter where NASCAR is racing.

Kyle Busch - Coming to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend, Busch is looking to turn his season around after disappointments early in the schedule and most recently at Texas. He's tied for the active wins lead at Bristol Motor Speedway with five total victories. He's tied for that distinction with his older brother Kurt. The last of those five wins came in 2011 for the No. 18 Toyota team, but that does little to diminish the fact that Busch cracks the Top 5 at BMS at a strong 35-percent rate and he's tallied close to 2,000 laps led at Bristol for his career. The Joe Gibbs Racing star's recent runner-up finish at Martinsville is a good indicator of the potential this weekend. While Busch does carry some risk in the Food City 500, the homerun potential is unmistakable and should not be overlooked.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick is a two-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and he owns over 850 laps led at the World's Fastest Half-Mile. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran is our most recent Bristol winner as he took the checkers first in last August's Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. He boasts 11 Top-5 finishes in 32-career starts at this facility, and that figures out to a strong 34-percent Top-5 rate. Harvick is another of the drivers who tends to fare better in the spring Bristol race than the late-summer night race at this famous short track, so we'd consider that another endorsement for the No. 4 Ford team. Before the off-week Harvick appeared to be getting his act together with a pole position and fourth-place finish at Texas. He should be poised to be a big performer in the Food City 500.

Chase Elliott - The impressive young driver will make his third-career Monster Energy Series Cup start at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. But don't let that discourage you from deploying him in your fantasy lineups. Elliott has been very impressive to this point in his second season. Three Top 5s and five Top 10s in his first seven starts of 2017 speak volumes of his level of performance. Elliott has flirted with victory in five of the seven races thus far this season. He will soon breakthrough for that first win. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished fourth in his Bristol debut one year ago, and more recently he put on a jaw-dropping performance at the Martinsville short track. He qualified on the outside pole, led 20 laps and finished third in that short track battle. Don't be surprised by anything Elliott does at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Joey Logano - The talented Penske Racing driver has become something of a Bristol specialist in recent seasons. Logano makes a very timely visit to a short track where he's been steadily improving to dominate the last few seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has led 446 laps in his last nine visits to the Bristol short track and he's won two of the last five events at the short track, including 2015s Irwin Tools Night Race. Taking into account his recent success, we have to place him firmly in the solid plays list this week. He claimed a pair of Top-10 finishes at this half-mile oval last season, so some other drivers have moved above him in the Bristol rankings for the time being. Logano's Top-5 finish at Martinsville a couple weeks ago is a pretty good indicator of his potential this Sunday afternoon.

Matt Kenseth - The Joe Gibbs Racing star's impressive loop stats at Bristol Motor Speedway have netted him some impressive finishing stats over the years at the half-mile oval. Kenseth is a four-time winner at Bristol and he sports 20-career Top 10s at the famous short track. The veteran driver led 142 laps from the outside pole in this event one year ago before some bad breaks saddled him with a poor finish in that installment of the Food City 500. Kenseth's 59-percent Top-10 rate at this oval across nearly two decades of racing is elite status for this facility. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota is looking to revive the dominance of this team, and this weekend's Food City 500 could be that spark.

Clint Bowyer - With a driver rating of 79.6 at Bristol Motor Speedway, it would be easy to overlook Bowyer and the No. 14 Ford team this weekend. However, don't make that mistake. He was a top performer at this oval before his career got off track. Bowyer somehow slugged his way to an eighth-place finish in this event one year ago in the severely under-equipped team of HScott Motorsports. The veteran driver has tallied 10 Top-10 finishes in 22-career starts despite all his ups-and-downs. Even in the leanest of his recent seasons of racing, Bowyer has maintained a high level at Bristol with Top 10s in two of his last three starts. Now that he's reenergized and racing well at Stewart Haas Racing, he should try to top that seventh-place effort he registered at Martinsville a few weeks ago.

Jimmie Johnson - Johnson's one-career victory at this short track shouldn't be discounted. The loop stats tell what we believe is the untold story of the Hendrick Motorsports star's success at the Tennessee bull ring. Johnson has spent the last seven seasons building much of that Bristol resume. He won this event in 2010 and collected Top-10 finishes in four of his last five visits to upper East Tennessee. Johnson's 833-career laps led at the high banks of Bristol have come mostly since the 2009 season at the track. Whatever prevented the seven-time champion from succeeding at Bristol Motor Speedway earlier in his career is clearly no longer a factor. Coming off the big Texas win, it's hard to bet against the No. 48 team at Bristol.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Bristol who can provide a solid finish

Kyle Larson - The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has been nearly unstoppable this season, but the No. 42 team did show there is a chink in the armor with their outing at the Martinsville short track recently. That gives us pause before ranking them too high for the Food City 500. Larson should fare better at BMS as opposed to Martinsville. He has two-career Top-10 finishes here in six tries. We expect the CGR team to give him another strong car this weekend, and it will be up to Larson to keep it up front and not fall back into traffic. From a fantasy racing perspective this driver and team are must starts right now on intermediate and larger ovals, but there is a bit of a downgrade when we go short track racing. Larson should still do well, but he won't be the driver to beat in this 500-lap contest.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Earnhardt has had a tough start to the season, but he showed some promise that the drought may be over with his Top 5 at Texas before the off-week. Certainly there's a big difference in racing at Fort Worth and racing at Bristol, but you cannot underestimate good momentum in this sport. So there's good reason to believe that the No. 88 team should be at least a good fantasy racing option in the Food City 500. Earnhardt has managed a 49-percent Top-10 rate at BMS over his career and that's an impressive level when compared to the rest of the drivers in the series. The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet has racked up ninth- and second-place finishes in his last two Bristol starts. He's led close to 800 laps for his career at this half-mile oval so he's no stranger to racing up front at this historic short track.

Ryan Newman - The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver shocked the NASCAR nation early in this season with his upset win at Phoenix. Newman wasn't finished with his good work on the smaller ovals. He registered a strong eighth-place finish at Martinsville a couple weeks ago. Bristol Motor Speedway has held a lot of success over the years for the driver of the No. 31 Chevrolet. Newman's 16 Bristol Top-10 finishes check in at a very respectable 53-percent rate, and that success has been recent too. He has nabbed Top 10s in three of his last four starts at this historic short track. There are certainly bigger names and flashier drivers in the field this Sunday afternoon, but don't make the mistake of underestimating Newman's potential at this half-mile oval.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - The Roush Fenway Racing driver makes a sneaky-good fantasy racing play at Bristol Motor Speedway. Stenhouse has only eight-career starts at the Tennessee short track, but the success is there to be seen. Four of those eight starts have netted Top-10 finishes, including a strong runner-up finish at the track under the lights last August. For whatever reason, the driver of the No. 17 Ford really likes racing on the high banks of Bristol, and he outperforms here. Stenhouse recently bagged a Top-10 finish at the tough short track in Martinsville, so he's already doing well on these small ovals. This weekend is a time to take advantage of that knowledge and exploit Stenhouse in your fantasy lineups. Most players won't recognize this success in this lower tier driver.

Austin Dillon - The driver of the RCR No. 3 Chevrolet was very impressive in his first short track race of the season a couple weeks ago at Martinsville. Dillon came from 20th-starting spot on the grid to finish a brilliant fifth-place in the STP 500. Now he comes to a Bristol short track where he has six-career starts. Dillon picked up a career-best Bristol finish in his last start at this facility. The fourth-place finish under the lights last August won't soon be forgotten at Richard Childress Racing. He'll likely be bringing that same chassis back to the World's Fastest Half-Mile this weekend in an attempt to recreate that magic. We expect Dillon to know exactly what to do with it and outperform expectations. A third-career Bristol Top-10 finish should be in store.

Chris Buescher - In the deep sleeper category this week we offer Buescher and his No. 37 JTG Daugherty Racing team. The talented youngster has always shown a gift for mixing it up on the small ovals. Buescher's impressive 11th-place finish at Martinsville recently was not a fluke. He has three-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and he's gotten better in both qualifying and finishing in each of those starts. It all culminated in Buescher's fantastic fifth-place finish at BMS last August for his former team at Front Row Motorsports. He qualified an impressive 12th on the starting grid and raced up front the vast majority of that 500-lap contest. JTG has been giving this young driver good cars this season and he and crew chief Trent Owens have been getting better with each passing week.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin - In a bit of an odd turn we're placing Hamlin in the slow down list this week. Normally, he's a very dependable short track driver, but we've got a couple reasons for the downgrade this week. Firstly, the one-time Bristol winner has been wildly inconsistent in recent Bristol visits. Finishes of 23rd-, 28th-, sixth-, 40th-, 26th-, third-, 20th- and third-place checker the map since his 2012 victory at this half-mile oval. That works out to a mediocre 18.6 average finish over the sample. The other piece of evidence working against the No. 11 JGR team this week was Hamlin's shockingly poor Martinsville performance a couple weeks ago. Normally, a contender each time the series visits Martinsville, Hamlin struggled to a 30th-place finish in the STP 500. It's probably a good idea to pass on Hamlin for now until he can get his current problems sorted out.

Danica Patrick - The driver of the No. 10 SHR Ford will be making her 10th-career start at Bristol Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. The body of work to this point has been somewhat disappointing for this driver and team at this facility. Patrick netted her only Bristol Top 10 here in 2015, but the other eight starts haven't been so kind. While she has been running at the end of all but one of her Bristol starts, Patrick has fallen laps down early due to her consistently qualifying outside the Top 25 at this oval. Last season she averaged 31st-place starting and 24.5 finishing in her two starts at BMS. Those efforts are very close to her career averages at this facility. Patrick proves to be a very predictable driver at this oval, unfortunately it's for all the wrong reasons.

Martin Truex Jr. - Short tracks really never have been Truex's cup of tea. The Furniture Row Racing star is much more comfortable carving up and dominating at an intermediate oval that beating fenders on a short track. Truex showed some brilliant flashes at Martinsville Speedway a couple weeks ago, but still labored to a subpar 16th-place finish at the Virginia short track. Bristol has held little success over the years for this veteran driver. In 22-career starts the driver of the No. 78 Toyota only has two Top-10 finishes to his credit. The last of those came way back in 2011. When all summed Truex has a lofty 20.9 career average finish at the World's Fastest Half-Mile. To expect a finish around that mark Sunday afternoon, means that Truex is an underperform candidate for the Food City 500.

Ryan Blaney - While the No. 21 Ford team has made huge gains this young season and Blaney has impressed most weekends, this is an event to lay off the talented Wood Brothers Racing driver. Blaney only has three career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and those have been finishes of 22nd-, 11th- and 35th-place. It's pretty clear that he prefers the intermediate and larger ovals over the short track ovals at least at this point in his NASCAR career. Blaney qualified well at Martinsville's half-mile oval a couple weeks ago, but still labored to a 25th-place finish in the STP 500. That could be a sign of what to expect at Bristol Sunday afternoon. While the racing at Bristol and Martinsville are not all that similar, the concentration and repetitively hitting your marks consistently are similar traits between the two ovals.