Folds of Honor Preview: Heading Back to Atlanta

With the high thrills and excitement of the Bristol race now well in our rearview mirror, we head back to Atlanta this weekend.  Twelve weeks ago, NASCAR was poised to race at Atlanta Motor Speedway for this event.  The Coronavirus emergency effectively shut all major sports down that week in mid-March, and with it the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 was postponed.  NASCAR's resumption and quickly assembled short-term schedule has us making up that event and racing at Atlanta in early June.  This will be the Cup Series first June race at the Georgia speedway since way back in 1965.  For many years the Atlanta races have typically been either early season or late-season events.  So we will be witnessing a bit of history this weekend.

The lightning-fast quad oval will host the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this Sunday afternoon.  Racing at Atlanta is a completely different game than the just-completed race at Bristol. The one thing we can rely on is that this typical cookie cutter oval has sister ovals in the NASCAR Cup Series. Tracks like Charlotte, Texas and even Las Vegas bear some resemblance to Atlanta.  This will be just our third cookie cutter oval race of the season and second since the Coronavirus break, so the twin Charlotte races will be our most relevant data to review, and will play a huge role in determining which drivers are off to a good start in this style of racing.  To a lesser degree, the historical statistics of Atlanta will also play a part for identifying those teams to target in fantasy racing lineups. Atlanta Motor Speedway has a good group of drivers that dominate each time we visit central Georgia.  The table below illustrates this group well. Considering that the 1.5-mile speedway is the type of track that NASCAR competes on the most, the trends and marks set at AMS will need to be kept in our memory going forward.  Those drivers that pound the pavement in Atlanta will likely be setting the stage for success at other intermediate ovals such as Texas and Kansas. 

The intermediate oval is the most frequent type of track found on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  This event should continue to set the tone for these style ovals for at least the first half of the season.  While Atlanta has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Texas and Charlotte, there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons.  Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent loop statistics of AMS and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend's race.  Since this is just the second intermediate oval since NASCAR's return, we'll be drawing on some information from last season and beyond at Atlanta.  So keep that little tidbit in mind when reviewing these electronic scoring statistics.  Here are the loop stats for the last 21 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

With Brad Keselowski's victory in this event one year ago, Ford swept to its third-consecutive victory at the Atlanta oval and Keselowski came away with his second win in the last three Atlanta races.  This brief streak of dominance for Ford will be put to the test this weekend.  Surging teams from both the Chevrolet and Toyota stables will look to put an end to Ford dominance at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  Kyle Busch was our last Atlanta victor for Toyota (2013) and Jimmie Johnson was our last for Chevrolet (2016).  While it's not as likely that either of these two will visit victory lane this Sunday, there are several suitors from both these brands that will be more than capable of breaking the Ford streak.  If Charlotte showed us anything a couple weeks ago, it was that Ford and Chevrolet seem to have a bit of the upper hand on Toyota right now in terms of intermediate oval racing.  We'll see if that trend holds up at Atlanta. 

We believe Atlanta Motor Speedway will be a bit of field equalizer and somewhat different than most of the other 1.5-mile tracks on the circuit.  The primary reason is simply because of tire wear.  The racing surface at Atlanta Motor Speedway is very abrasive and bumpy.  It causes drivers to handle very loose race cars mere laps into a green flag run.  Most of the other similar ovals have newer, less abrasive surfaces so the tires don't fall off as quickly as they do in Atlanta.  We saw 26 lead changes in this event one year ago, which was a slight increase over the 24 we saw in 2018, and more in line with recent historical norms at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  Still, with stage racing being in play, the right fuel and tire strategy here could set up anyone to possibly dominate and win the day.  We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star has been dialed-in at Atlanta Motor Speedway the last three seasons.  Keselowski won this event three years ago, finished runner-up to Kevin Harvick two years ago, and won this event one year ago.  That gives the driver of the No. 2 Ford and incredible string over the last three Atlanta races.  During the three-race span Keselowski has led 92 laps at the fast Georgia oval.  This mini-streak of dominance has extended his current Top-10 streak at AMS to five races.  Keselowski has had pretty good cars the first five events of 2020, and now he's coming to a track that he's had pegged to the wall the last three seasons.  Odds are very good for a victory this Sunday afternoon.      

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star is a two-time Atlanta winner, and most recently in 2018 at the mid-Georgia speedway.  In this event one year ago, the driver of the No. 4 Ford led 45 laps and battled with Brad Keselowski to finish fourth in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.  The veteran driver carries a strong five-race Atlanta Top-10 streak into Sunday's 500-mile battle.  Harvick now has nearly 1,200-career laps led at this facility with a whopping 900+ of those coming in just his last six starts.  Right now no other drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series are more dominant at Atlanta than Harvick and Keselowski.  We expect this duo to be top contenders and setting the pace this weekend.

Chase Elliott – Elliott has had fantastic race cars to resume the season.  He's captured one win and been in the running for more.  He should bring that same speed to Atlanta this weekend in his No. 9 Chevrolet.  Elliott loves his home state track.  He has Top-10 finishes in three of his four Cup Series starts at Atlanta entering this Sunday's action.  Elliott is very familiar with his home state oval.  The Hendrick Motorsports star captured an impressive victory in the second of the two Charlotte races, which is a very comparable oval.  Elliott and his crew chief, Alan Gustafson, understand how important tire wear is at this facility, and they should have a great plan in place.  This driver and team has to be very optimistic about their chances in Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Joey Logano – Logano has two wins on the young season, and he's out of the gates strong in 2020.  The veteran Penske Racing driver will look to keep it rolling at Atlanta this weekend.  The No. 22 Ford team has grabbed one pole position, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in their last seven Atlanta starts.  Those efforts have bolstered what was a poor record at the Atlanta oval prior to 2012 for this Penske Racing star.  Logano won the intermediate oval race at Las Vegas prior to the NASCAR break, and he led a combined 68 laps in the two recent Charlotte races.  This could be the weekend where Logano picks up his first-career Atlanta victory.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The driver of the No. 18 Toyota will be looking to build on the momentum of his three Top-3 finishes in the last four races.  Last season Busch collected one win and eight Top-10 finishes on the intermediate ovals.  They were not his best tracks, but Busch was a very consistent performer on the cookie cutter ovals.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time Atlanta winner, including this event in 2013.  While AMS has been a mixed bag for Busch over the years, right now he's performing as well as any time in his career at this facility.  Four of Busch's last six starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway have fetched Top-10 finishes.  While he's not typically been a big lap leader, it has boosted his career Top-10 rate at AMS to 38-percent.   

Martin Truex Jr. – One of the most dominant drivers of recent seasons on the 1.5-mile oval circuit has been Truex.  He grabbed two victories, and eight Top-10 finishes on those tracks in 2019 alone.  The veteran driver has seen his level of performance come to life at Atlanta Motor Speedway in recent seasons.  Truex rides a five-race Atlanta Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  His start in this event one year ago yielded a runner-up finish, which is his career-best mark at Atlanta.  The No. 19 team's luck of late has been mixed at times, but if there's a speedway that can get Truex back on track its Atlanta Motor Speedway.  He has been really close to nabbing his first Atlanta victory in the last few attempts, and this could be the weekend where he finally breaks through. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is coming off a disappointing crash and DNF at Bristol last weekend.  The young driver will look to shake that off in this Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.  The Penske Racing youngster will be making his fifth-career start at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend.  To this point, the results have not come.  However, Blaney did lead 41 laps in this event one year ago and show good speed before bad luck and the poor finish.  Before his bad luck at Bristol, Blaney was very impressive at the doubleheader in Charlotte the previous week.  He grabbed a pair of third-place finishes at that oval which his very similar to Atlanta in many respects.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford has a very high fantasy racing ceiling for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing star is a three-time Atlanta winner and he has over 800 laps led for his career at this facility.  Busch has been strong with all the different race teams he's competed with over the years at this Georgia speedway.  Aside from the victories, he's posted 14 Top-10 finishes in 28 starts at AMS.  That checks in at a respectable 50-percent rate, and that's been rising in recent years.  Busch has eight Top 10's in his last 10 visits to Atlanta for a sizzling 80-percent rate.  He is riding a three-race Top-10 streak coming to Atlanta, so the No. 1 Chevrolet team is surging coming to the very likeable Atlanta Motor Speedway.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been a good performer on the mid-sized ovals since NASCAR returned to action.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has a victory and three Top-5 finishes in the recent four-race Darlington-Charlotte series.  That 75-percent Top-5 rate and 9.3 average finish over the span show the speed of the No. 11 Toyota team.    Hamlin has had a mixed level of performance at best over the years at Atlanta.  The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has one win (2012), four Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes at AMS.  The Top-10 rate is low at just 35-percent.  However, his last two starts at the mid-Georgia track have netted very respectable fourth- and 11th-place finishes.  That's a good recent impression for this driver and team.  Hamlin should forge another hard-fought Top 10 this Sunday afternoon.

Jimmie Johnson – The five-time Atlanta winner checks in on the sleepers list this week, although Johnson probably has a lot more upside than a typical sleeper.  Case in point would be his recent eighth-, 11th- and third-place finishes at Darlington, Charlotte and Bristol.  As for Atlanta Motor Speedway, two of Johnson's five wins here have come quite recently.  Johnson took back-to-back wins at the Georgia oval in 2015 and 2016.  Those efforts also boosted his career Top-10 rate at the track to an impressive 57-percent.  The last three starts at AMS have been nothing special for the No. 48 team, but we're willing to bet this time it will be dramatically different for Johnson. 

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been steady on the intermediate ovals dating back to late last season.  His last five starts on these size ovals has netted one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes.  Bowman has four-career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and last season's 15th-place finish has been his career-best effort to this point.  Bowman and the No. 88 team have improved each time they've visited this Georgia speedway, and that should be the case again this Sunday afternoon.  The team has shown good speed and led well over 250 laps since NASCAR's return, but Bowman's luck has been pretty shaky and collecting those good finishes each week has been a problem.  He's a boom-or-bust pick this week at Atlanta, but could easily sneak into victory lane.    

Austin Dillon – The central Georgia speedway has been an oval of mixed results for Dillon throughout his seven-season career.  Two of his last four trips to AMS have netted steady Top-15 results.  The No. 3 Chevrolet team has been on top of their game since NASCAR resumed.  Dillon grabbed 14th- and eighth-place finishes recently in the Charlotte doubleheader, and he's fresh of a strong sixth-place finish at Bristol this past weekend.  Richard Childress Racing's decision to reunite crew chief Justin Alexander with Dillon this season has paid off big.  The veteran driver will be a Top 10 threat on the intermediate ovals for the remainder of the 2020 campaign.    

Clint Bowyer – Despite some lackluster career stats racing at Atlanta's lightning-fast oval, we believe Bowyer is a good fantasy racing candidate this weekend.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford has had good speed since the resumption of NASCAR racing.  He's coming off a brilliant runner-up finish at Bristol this past Sunday, which was a huge momentum boost.  AMS gives him a great follow up opportunity to build on last weekend's effort.  Since moving to the Stewart Haas Racing team, Bowyer's Atlanta numbers have been on the move, and in the right direction.  His last three starts with the team have netted 11th-, third- and fifth-place finishes at Atlanta.  The veteran driver flirted with victory in all three of those outings.  That's a really good sign for Bowyer's chances this Sunday afternoon.    

Tyler Reddick – The rookie driver has been a big find for fantasy racing players in weekly lineup leagues, salary cap leagues and tiered driver group leagues.  Since NASCAR resumed racing the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has been sharp.  Reddick has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in the last five events.  He's climbed from 23rd-place to 18th-place in the driver standings during the five-race span.  This will be Reddick's first-career Cup Series start at Atlanta Motor Speedway, so we have zero data to illustrate.  However, when we look back on the recent twin races at the similar oval in Charlotte, we see strong eighth- and 14th-place finishes for this driver and team.  Reddick has a ton of upside potential in this 500-mile battle at Atlanta.

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid This Week

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has been a great career-long performer at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  He's amassed 363 laps led, one pole position, 11 Top-5 and 17 Top-10 finishes.  It's been a pretty decent track for the veteran over his long career.  However, we haven't seen Kenseth exactly take off as strongly as we would have expected since resuming racing at NASCAR's top level.  Since taking over the No. 42 Chevrolet, he only has one Top-10 and two Top-20 finishes in his five starts to-date.  The average finish checks in around a lackluster 21.0.  To say that Kenseth hasn't been setting the world on fire would be an understatement.  Finishes of 23rd- and 26th-place at the similar oval of Charlotte a couple weeks ago don't exactly fill us with much optimism for this weekend.   

Darrell Wallace Jr. – Wallace has had a pretty good start to the 2020 season.  With two Top-10 finishes already in the bank and a 22nd-place ranking in the driver standings, things have not been too bad for the No. 43 RPM team.  However, the two low lights of the campaign to this point were his pair of DNF's in the recently completed Charlotte doubleheader.  That's a bit disconcerting as we visit another cookie cutter track this weekend.  Wallace's two-career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway have been nothing to boast about either.  Finishes of 32nd- and 27th-place have been this young driver's Atlanta resume to this point.  There are too many question marks to risk a fantasy start for Wallace this Sunday.  It's best to look for other options in his salary range/driver group.        

Daniel Suarez – As far as x-factors go this weekend, Suarez is probably the biggest speculative play.  This will be Suarez's fourth look at Atlanta Motor Speedway in a Cup car.  While he finally nabbed his first-career Top 10 at the oval in this event one year ago, this will be his first start at the Georgia speedway with his new No. 96 team.  So far, things have been a struggle at Gaunt Brothers Racing.  However, Suarez did snag a season-best 18th-place finish last weekend at Bristol.  All that aside, racing at Atlanta is going to be tough for this small race team.  Suarez' recent pair of 28th-place finishes at the similar oval in Charlotte is not a confidence builder.  There are better fantasy racing selections among the lower tier drivers.    

William Byron – This Sunday will be Byron's third-career Cup Series start at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  The young driver has snagged unimpressive 18th- and 17th-place finishes in his opening acts at this oval.  Normally, we would expect young drivers to keep improving with added visits to a track such as Atlanta.  However, Byron has been wildly inconsistent this season.  With just two Top-10 finishes in the first nine events of this season, he sits a subpar 17th in the driver standings and sports an average finish above our expectations at 19.3.  We had really big expectations for this driver and team to take some steps forward in 2020, but it hasn't materialized thus far.  A mid- to upper-teens finish for Byron at Atlanta is not worthy of fantasy consideration.