Folds of Honor Preview: All New Speedway

This weekend NASCAR pulls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the first of two visits in the 2022 season.  The lightning-fast quad oval will play host to the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this Sunday afternoon. 

 Racing at Atlanta is a completely different game than the just-completed Phoenix event.  The intermediate oval produces high speeds and lots of side-by-side racing action.  In addition, the Atlanta oval underwent a big repaving and redesign project since the NASCAR Cup Series last visited the track last year.  The asphalt at Atlanta had not been repaved since 1997, making it the oldest surface that NASCAR competes on.  In addition, the banking was given a radical redesign.  The former 24-degree corner banking was increased to a whopping 28-degrees while keeping the banking on the straights at a modest five-degrees.  The racing groove was also narrowed from 55 to 40 feet, coupling the higher speeds in the turns with less room to move about.  Atlanta is now truly like no other intermediate oval on the NASCAR circuit.  There will be lots of unknowns as we enter this installment of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.  Additionally, NASCAR is bringing an all new generation stock car into the equation this weekend, so the surprises will likely be many. 

The intermediate oval is the most frequent type of track found on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  This event will likely be a big outlier thanks to the radically new configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway.  However, historical data will still serve a somewhat useful purpose.  It will be good to acquaint ourselves with which drivers have had success at Atlanta in the past, so that we may get a good idea of who could adapt quickly and succeed going forward.  Here are the loop stats for the last 24 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

With Ryan Blaney's victory in this event one year ago, Ford swept to its fifth-consecutive victory at the Atlanta oval and Blaney came away with his first-career win at the facility.  The NASCAR Cup Series returned to Atlanta in July and Kurt Busch pulled an upset victory over his brother, Kyle, and gave Chevrolet their first Atlanta win since 2016.  That performance cut off Ford's nice little streak at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  With the new configuration, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet can keep their current hold on the Georgia speedway or if Ford can rally back to the top.

Kyle Busch was our last Atlanta victor for Toyota (2013).  He seems the best positioned to challenge for the win from this manufacturer.  Busch has two-career Atlanta victories, and he's really been the pinnacle of any success for Toyota at the track.  If the first four events of 2022 have shown us anything, it's that parity currently reigns.  We have two first-time winners in the first four races of the season, and Toyota has yet to scratch the win column.  Busch and his Toyota teammates will have a lot to prove on the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Since this race will be difficult to forecast, and historical data is only marginally helpful, we're going to have to examine the first four events of the season.  Right now current hot streaks may play the biggest role in determining who has success on this higher-banked and newly repaved Atlanta oval.  Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain have led the most laps to this point.  Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have collected the most points.  These eight drivers will be names of focus as we outline our Atlanta picks for this weekend.  We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The reigning Cup Series champion will look to hit the reset button after some misfortune at Phoenix last weekend.  Fortunately for Larson, he's been one of the most successful drivers in the last year on intermediate ovals.  He has four victories and two runner-up finishes on the 1.5-mile tracks in the last 10 starts. Given the new Next-Gen car and the new design of Atlanta, those are variables not to be overlooked. However, Larson and the No. 5 team seem best equipped to take advantage of the brief practice and qualifying session and employ it to major effect in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. As for his Atlanta history, Larson has never won at the mid-Georgia oval, but has led over 400 laps and finished runner-up twice.  He's going to be a top contender to win this Sunday afternoon.   

Chase Elliott – Elliott has never won at his home state track, but this weekend could be the occasion where the Hendrick Motorsports star breaks through for his first Atlanta victory. He carries a seven-race intermediate oval Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. During that streak, Elliott has led over 75 laps and nabbed three runner-up finishes. So painfully close to victory, but not quite. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet cracks the Top 10 historically at a strong 71-percent rate at Atlanta Motor Speedway, so consistency is not a problem here. Also, his 13.6 average finish at Atlanta is well above average as well. The new configuration and higher banking of Atlanta Motor Speedway somewhat resembles a superspeedway like Daytona or Talladega, but shorter length.  This change may help boost Elliott's chances of winning the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.    

Ryan Blaney – Coming off a strong performance, but somewhat disappointing fourth-place finish at Phoenix, Blaney will look forward to another opportunity to challenge for a win.  The No. 22 Ford team are off to a pretty strong start with the new Next-Gen car.  Blaney is the winner of this Atlanta event one year ago, but that was on the previous configuration of this speedway. Still, he'll be the focus of a lot of attention this weekend as he returns to Atlanta to defend his race crown. Blaney has a three-race Atlanta Top-5 streak rolling as we enter Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Last season the young Penske Racing driver cracked the Top 5 on these size tracks at a strong 40-percent rate. Given that bit of info and the fact that he's started 2022 strong, we believe Blaney will be a factor in the outcome this weekend. 

Kyle Busch – Busch was the second most successful driver in the Cup Series last season on the intermediate ovals, second only to Kyle Larson. The Joe Gibbs Racing star won at Kansas, finished runner-up in the second Atlanta race and cracked the Top 5 at an eye-popping 70-percent rate. While it only added up to one victory, it was primarily because of Larson's utter dominance. Busch is still getting a feel for the new Next-Gen car, but some good signs are beginning to appear. Two weeks ago at the similar sized Las Vegas oval, Busch led 49 laps and contended for the win before finishing fourth in the Pennzoil 400. That could translate well to Sunday at Atlanta, despite the banking differences between Vegas and Atlanta.  Busch is a two-time winner at this oval, and has a pair of runner-up finishes in his last three Atlanta starts. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star is a three-time Atlanta winner, and two of those victories have come since the 2018 season.  In this event one year ago, the driver of the No. 4 Ford peddled to a respectable 10th-place finish in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The veteran driver has cracked the Top 10 at Atlanta in seven of his last eight appearances, boosting his career Top-10 rate at the track to 50-percent. Harvick now has well over 1,300-career laps led at this facility with most of those having come since the 2014 season.  He is still getting a handle on the new Next-Gen car, but the last three weeks' results of seventh-, 12th- and sixth-place are a very hopeful sign heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway. Harvick cracked the Top 10 last season at a staggering 70-percent rate on intermediate ovals, and that's not a statistic to quickly be dismissed.

Aric Almirola – After a very shocking and painful 2021 season, it seems Almirola and the No. 10 Ford team have turned things around. The veteran driver has quickly adapted to the new race car and is only one of two drivers to post three Top-10 finishes through the first four events of 2022. Now Almirola will set his sights on Atlanta Motor Speedway. He was just dreadful on intermediate tracks last season, but we're more focused on the here and now than last year's anomaly. We last saw the No. 10 SHR Ford team in action on an intermediate oval two weeks ago in Las Vegas. Almirola battled among the leaders the entire event and came away with a strong sixth-place finish in the Pennzoil 400. The old configuration of Atlanta only yielded two Top 10's to this veteran driver and a pedestrian 18.0 average finish. The new banking and pavement should fall right into Almirola's wheelhouse. 

Tyler Reddick – The last three weeks have shown that Reddick is taking the next steps and is ready to become a star in this racing series, as well as return Richard Childress Racing to some prominence in NASCAR's top division. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet led 90 laps and Fontana, but succumbed to some tough luck instead of the win. Unshaken, Reddick has gone on to post strong seventh- and third-place finishes the last two rounds at Las Vegas and Phoenix. Now he sets his sights on the newly reconfigured oval in Atlanta. Reddick has just three-career starts on the pervious configuration, but his last outing was of note. He raced to a strong sixth-place finish in last July's Quaker State 400. Last season Reddick was very consistent on these intermediate sized ovals with a strong 70-percent Top-10 rate.

Chase Briscoe – After Briscoe's big win at Phoenix this past week, the No. 14 Ford team is squarely in everyone's focus coming to Atlanta Motor Speedway. The young driver led 101 laps last weekend at the Phoenix short track and grabbed his first-career victory. Now Briscoe will carry that momentum into the new Atlanta Motor Speedway. He made his first two Cup Series starts at the oval last year and showed improvement between the two. Briscoe's last Atlanta performance yielded a steady 15th-place finish last July. The new car and the new configuration of this track will be something to get a handle on quickly. Watch Reddick's practice laps Friday afternoon. If he shows speed in that 50-minute long session, he should be a good fantasy racing start for Sunday afternoon's 500-mile battle.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Kurt Busch – The 23XI Racing veteran is a four-time Atlanta winner and he has over 900 laps led for his career at this facility.  Busch has been strong with all the different race teams he's competed with over the years at this Georgia speedway.  Aside from the victories, he's posted 16 Top-10 finishes in 31 starts at AMS.  That checks in at a respectable 52-percent rate, and that's been rising in recent years.  Busch won at Atlanta the last time the Cup Series visited there last July, and that's not to be underestimated.  That has bolstered his career numbers at this facility.  Busch has started this season well with two Top-10 finishes in the first four events, currently 11th-place in the driver standings.  He should be focused for a great start at one of his favorite 1.5-mile tracks.    

William Byron – We believe the up-and-down season for Byron will be decidedly "up" this weekend at Atlanta.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been inconsistent finishing through four races this season, but he's led laps in every event so far. The highlight to this point was Byron's fifth-place finish at the intermediate oval in Las Vegas. That is much of the reason for our optimism heading to Atlanta. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster was also very strong on the 1.5-mile ovals last season, collecting one win and eight Top-10 finishes in those events. Atlanta has been a bit of a mixed bag for Byron to this point in his career, but he did post a strong eighth-place finish in this event one year ago. The new configuration should be to his liking and we could see a career-best Atlanta finish for Byron this Sunday.

Denny Hamlin – While Hamlin's start to the season has been anything but positive, we believe there's reason to hope for a turnaround at Atlanta this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star had a fast car at Las Vegas recently and led 31 laps before mechanical problems would rob him of a deserved Top-10 finish.  Atlanta Motor Speedway has rewarded Hamlin with a win and nine Top-10 finishes over the years.  Two of his last three trips to Georgia have netted Top-5 finishes at AMS. Intermediate ovals were a real sweet spot for this driver and team last season. Once Hamlin and the No. 11 team get a handle on this new car, they should be tracks of success once again. The newness of the Atlanta track reconfiguration should play to his strengths as a driver in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Ross Chastain – One of the bigger surprises of the young 2022 campaign has been how much Trackhouse Racing has improved and how well Chastain has started with that young race team so far this season. After stumbling in the season-opener at Daytona, the journeyman driver has rallied to post impressive finishes of third- and second-place the last two weeks at Las Vegas and Phoenix. He even led a career-best 83 laps at Vegas two weeks ago. Now focus shifts to Atlanta Motor Speedway and its new configuration. The 1.5-mile track now more-resembles a superspeedway with its higher banking and narrower race groove. That should play well to Chastain's strengths as a driver. Four-career Cup starts at Atlanta have only yielded one Top-15 to this point for this driver. Sunday should be a much, much different story.   

Christopher Bell – Bell showed us in the first intermediate oval race of the season at Las Vegas that he has some potential to surprise this year in this style of racing. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota won the pole position in a strong performance and led 32 laps before finishing a respectable 10th-place in the Pennzoil 400 two weeks ago. Bell has just three-career Cup Series starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway to this point. However, the last of those was a strong eighth-place finish in last July's Quaker State 400. That's in line with his performance on 1.5-mile tracks in general last season. Bell was a 50-percent Top-10 driver on these size tracks in 2021 and he carries a three-race Top-10 streak on these tracks into Sunday's action. We like Bell as a great sleeper pick this weekend.

Austin Dillon – The season and the next Gen-Car are going pretty well for Dillon and the No. 3 Chevrolet team so far. Dillon carries a 14.8 average finish through the first four events into this weekend's action. Atlanta Motor Speedway has been an oval of consistency for this veteran driver in recent seasons. His last three finishes at the central Georgia speedway have netted 11th-, sixth- and 12th-place finishes. Similar sized ovals were tracks of great success for this driver and team last season with four Top 10's and a dazzling 10.6 average finish for last year. If recent outings are any indication, Dillon's steady 11th-place finish of two weeks ago at Las Vegas could be a good preview of what to expect Sunday at Atlanta.

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid This Week

Martin Truex Jr. – The start to this season has been a bit of an inconsistent mess for Truex and the No. 19 team. He's led just 12 laps to this point and has just one Top-10 finish through four races. Truex's crash and DNF last week at Phoenix are just the latest obstacle. Atlanta Motor Speedway has been a track of recent success for the Joe Gibbs Racing star. He rides an eight-race Atlanta Top-10 streak into Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Still, the track reconfiguration and the struggles to start the season hang like a cloud over his prospects this weekend. The new track design emulates a superspeedway track with the higher banking, and we all know all too well how Truex struggles on the tracks at Daytona and Talladega. It's a risky proposition to deploy Truex this weekend. 

Brad Keselowski – The Roush Fenway Keselowski star is struggling to find some consistency and rhythm through four races this season. The No. 6 Ford team had great speed and finished well (ninth-place) at Daytona, but they've looked sort of clueless ever since. Finishes of 27th-, 24th- and 23rd-place have been Keselowski's results since Daytona. It's a big red flag ahead of this Atlanta race that will be packed with unknowns. Keselowski has had a good bit of success at this track in the old configuration, with two wins and nine Top-10 finishes. However, the steeper banking could be a real game changer for several drivers who've had past success at this oval. Keselowski's current struggles also nudge us in the direction of caution this weekend for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Joey Logano – Logano has been somewhat impressive to start this season. His two Top 10's through four events have him positioned well in the driver standings coming to Georgia. Still, when Logano and the No. 22 team have not been "on" thus far this season, they've looked a bit puzzled with the new car. The 21st-place finish at Daytona was a real head-scratcher given how well Logano performs in that style of racing. Needless to say, Atlanta has been a real puzzle for the Penske Racing star over the years. With no victories and just a lowly 31-percent Top-10 rate, Atlanta ranks as one of Logano's most difficult intermediate ovals on the circuit. The new configuration will need to really be to his liking to jump start his performance here. We believe that's a high-risk bet heading into Sunday's 500-mile Atlanta shootout.          

Cole Custer – Unlike his Stewart Haas Racing teammates, Custer has stumbled out of the gates this season. Two finishes outside the Top 20 have led to his 24th-place position in the driver rankings coming to Atlanta. Qualifying seems to be much of the problem as Custer has not qualified better than 21st-place in the first four events. Stuck back in traffic, he's battling to gain any track position. Custer will look to hit the reset button this weekend, but faces a tall task. He has three-career starts at AMS, and his average finish across the span is a subpar 18.0. Custer has struggled to finish on the lead lap in those starts. The new configuration brings new hope for success, but the reality is the No. 41 Ford team are anywhere but in a good place right now. This driver and team still have some things to figure out about their Next-Gen race car.