FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Next Test for the New Aero Package

As we put the wild restarts and high thrills of the three-turn oval in Pocono behind us, we look forward to this weekend when the Monster Energy Cup Series will pay its first visit of the season to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400.  This will be the first of two events at the two-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan.  This facility has wowed us for years with some of the fastest speeds recorded in all of NASCAR.  At its height we saw a pole qualifying lap of 206.558 mph in 2014 by Jeff Gordon, and that still stands as the pole qualifying record at MIS.  The speeds have gradually drifted downwards in recent seasons, but we still have seen cars turn laps to claim the pole in the low 200's.  In our last Michigan race last August, we saw Denny Hamlin claim the pole with his 202.794 mph qualifying lap.  With the off-season change to the new aero package we're seeing reduced speeds at most ovals, but for now, Michigan is still an unknown until we race there this weekend.  We'll see if these Monster Energy Cup Series cars continue to post laps over 200 mph in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

The oval in Michigan has similar characteristics to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, which the Monster Energy Cup Series raced at in March of this season.  Both tracks are two-mile ovals, but Michigan has a little more banking in the corners and straight-aways.  As a result, the oval in Brooklyn boasts higher average speeds as we have seen for the last several years.  As with Fontana, Michigan is all about aero handling and horsepower, and races at the large oval often come down to fuel strategy as well.  The track and racing produce long green-flag runs so the crew chiefs had better keep a close eye on their pit windows and fuel mileage over the course of this event.  Stage racing only complicates this strategy even more.  If recent races at MIS are any indicator, be prepared for about 15-20 lead changes and six or seven caution flags on Sunday afternoon so the racing should be pretty continuous.  The result will be an emphasis on fuel efficiency, pit crew performance and pit strategy as these will be big keys to victory in this 400-mile event. 

Since we can look back on the early race at Fontana as essentially a preview of this event, those results will be a great guide to picking a fantasy racing lineup this weekend.   The similarities between the two ovals afford us this luxury.  Still, enough time has passed since that Fontana race to give us some pause about completely hanging our hats on those numbers.  Current trends for Michigan International Speedway will serve us well too.  The drivers who have performed well at MIS over the years are certainly worth some added scrutiny.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 14 years or 28 races at Michigan International Speedway.

Throughout the years Michigan International Speedway was a track of parity.  It seemed that any manufacturer was a contender for victory lane each time we visited the Irish Hills.  However, the last three seasons have seen Michigan become a track of streaks.  Chevrolet reeled off three-straight wins here between 2016 and 2017, and Ford drivers swept both races at MIS in 2018.  Drivers from that brand ride a two-race Michigan win streak into Sunday's battle.  Kevin Harvick won the late summer installment at Michigan in August of last year, and his Stewart Haas Racing teammate, Clint Bowyer, won this event one year ago.  If the Ford streak hopes to continue at the two-mile oval the burden will largely fall on Stewart Haas Racing.  Harvick and Bowyer will be joined by Aric Almirola and Daniel Suarez in trying to defend what is currently SHR turf this weekend.

The Harvick-Bowyer victories at Michigan ended a three-race win streak at the track by Kyle Larson.  He was Chevrolet's most dominant driver at the huge oval during the past five seasons.  With this brand currently staging a resurgence, it will be interesting to see if Larson can muster the speed to retake his old throne this weekend.  Aside from Larson, other suitors from the bow tie brand, Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch, will bear some thought this weekend.  Those two could easily sneak up and start a new Chevy win streak at MIS.  As for Toyota, their drivers have been locked out of victory lane at Michigan since 2015.  Considering that Kyle Busch won at the similar Fontana oval earlier this season, all eyes should be on the No. 18 Toyota this Sunday afternoon.  He could play the spoiler to get Toyota back into Michigan victory lane.  Considering how dominant he was at Pocono this past Sunday, it's not out of the question.  We'll examine recent hot streaks of this season and the history at Michigan International Speedway and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this weekend at MIS.

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been flexing his muscles of late.  Busch has four wins already this season, the latest just last weekend at Pocono.  His Michigan career stats are subpar by any measure.  Busch's 10 Top 10's in 28 starts at MIS come in at a disappointing 35-percent rate.  However, he's so hot right now, he has the speed to trump this Michigan history.  When we last saw Busch in action on a two-mile oval, he qualified in the second row, led 134 laps and won at Fontana earlier this season.  That could be more the mark for the No. 18 Toyota team this weekend.  His Michigan performances were much better last season with 22 laps led and a pair of Top-4 finishes.  We believe Busch is ready to collect career victory number two at Michigan International Speedway. 

Brad Keselowski – We've seen the No. 2 Ford team live up to expectations in recent weeks.  Keselowski is fresh off a runner-up showing at Pocono, and he grabbed his third victory of the season at Kansas Speedway in mid-May.  Keselowski and the Penske Racing team should be up to the task of a good performance at the huge Michigan oval.  He travels to his home state track with big expectations and looking for confidence for this Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.  The Penske Racing finished runner-up in his last Michigan start last season, and that was his fifth-career Top-3 finish at this two-mile oval.  He also finished third in Fontana earlier this season.  Keselowski has notched a blazing 60-percent Top-5 rate in his last three seasons of racing at the two-mile ovals of Fontana and Michigan.  Those are numbers to rely on this weekend.     

Kyle Larson – The young Chip Ganassi Racing driver is one season removed from a three-race Michigan win streak.  His disappointing 2018 efforts at MIS will soon be put in the rearview mirror as he looks to climb back to the top at this track.  Despite being winless in 2019, the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has had race-winning speed at times this season.  He looked very good at Pocono this past week before late-race contact with Clint Bowyer shoved him down the running order.  With four total victories and six Top-3 finishes the last three seasons between the ovals of Fontana and Michigan, you'll be challenged to find a more skilled driver on these two-mile ovals.  This weekend's race could be a big reset button for Larson and the No. 42 team.   

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford pulled out a Top-10 finish at Pocono last weekend, despite some struggles at one point.  It was a gritty performance in the face of many obstacles, and should propel him into the Irish Hills.  The Penske Racing star has always loved competing at Michigan International Speedway.  Logano owns two victories and 14 Top-10 finishes in 20-career starts at MIS.  His driver rating checks in at a strong 96.3 at this facility, which ranks him among the elite in NASCAR.  Logano led 3 laps and registered a runner-up finish at the two-mile oval in Fontana earlier this season.  We should see a similar performance in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.

Solid Plays – Those who are an almost lock for a Top 10, and an outside shot at the win

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star has excelled on two-mile ovals throughout his long Monster Energy Cup Series career.  Harvick has two wins and 17 Top-10 finishes at just the Michigan oval alone.  He has an amazing six runner-up finishes and nine Top-5 finishes at this facility since the 2013 season.  It's really remarkable that Harvick hasn't won more than two-career victories at this huge oval.  He could possibly add to his trophy case in this weekend's FireKeepers Casino 400.  The way the No. 4 Ford team has been racing of late, Harvick could get that little nudge he needs to convert some of these runner-up Michigan finishes into wins.  Never count him out any race weekend, including this one.     

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer's career history at Michigan International Speedway has been pretty good.  With 12 Top 10's in 26 starts, he checks in at a respectable 46-percent rate.  Recent outings haven't been a real mixed bag, however, we have to look back to this event one year ago when he peddled the No. 14 Ford to his first-career victory at MIS.  It was a surprising, yet strong performance.  Coming off Top-5 finishes in two of his last three starts (Kansas and Pocono) we're filled with confidence for this Michigan outing.  It's impossible to ignore the speed this driver and team have displayed of late.  Returning to the scene of his victory one year ago will fill Bowyer with some determination and resolve this weekend. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex doesn't have the greatest career stats at Michigan, but he's been pretty hot on the ovals larger than 1.5-miles this season.  Throw the history books out the window this weekend as this driver and team are on fire.  During this veteran driver's current hot streak, Truex has three victories in just his last six events.  His Michigan history shows just nine Top-10 finishes in 26-career starts and no victories.  However, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota led 25 laps, and contended for the win in his last Michigan start.  Additionally, Truex finished eighth in a strong performance earlier this season at the similarly configured oval in Fontana.  This is a scenario set up for Truex to challenge the Top 5 this Sunday afternoon. 

Kurt Busch – Three-time Michigan winner, Busch, should bring it strong this Sunday in the FireKeepers Casino 400.  Consistency at this oval over his career has been the primary issue.  With only 13 Top-10 finishes in 36 starts, Busch checks in at a lowly 36-percent rate at this facility.  Recent visits have been outside this norm, and the primary reason for our optimism this weekend.  Busch won the pole for this event one year ago and led 46 laps en route to finishing a brilliant third-place.  He returned in the late summer and claimed a steady sixth-place finish.  Those efforts last year dovetail nicely with what he did in the No. 1 Chevrolet earlier this season at the similar two-mile oval in Fontana.  Busch peddled to a sixth-place finish that March afternoon.  CGR has the speed on these huge ovals, and this veteran driver will make good use of it.

Sleepers – Those who have a good history at Michigan, and can give you a solid finish

Chase Elliott – The young driver has been sorting out his season in recent weeks.  Elliott overcame a slow start to 2019 with a victory and five-race Top-5 streak coming to Michigan this week.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has served notice that he will contend for wins, and race among the leaders for the remainder of this season.  The two-mile tracks have been a real high point for the Elliott the last three seasons.  Eight of his 10 starts between Fontana and Michigan have netted Top-10 finishes.  That places him among Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano for tops in the series over the span.  That streak includes three runner-up finishes at Michigan International Speedway alone.  It's clear that Elliott loves racing at this facility, and that could be the advantage to propel him to another great effort Sunday afternoon.

Denny Hamlin – Michigan International Speedway has been a good oval for the Joe Gibbs Racing star.  Hamlin nabbed a couple wins here earlier in his career and has 12 Top 10's at the track to-date.  Three of his last five Michigan starts have netted Top-10 finishes.  That coincides with his two-mile oval level of performance the last three seasons.  Hamlin has two Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his last 10 Fontana and Michigan starts.  These two-mile tracks aren't his best facilities on the NASCAR circuit, but they're far from his worst.  Considering that Hamlin won the pole, led 13 laps and finished eighth in his last Michigan start, we should see a hungry and motivated driver of the No. 11 Toyota in this 400-mile battle.       

Ryan Blaney – Blaney shook off some recent bad luck and answered the call this past weekend at Pocono with a decent performance.  He raced among the leaders at times and picked up a 12th-place finish in the Pocono 400.  Blaney will carry that momentum into Michigan this weekend.  He has eight-career Cup starts at this facility with just two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes.  The reason for optimism is that most of that success came last season alone with eighth- and fifth-place finishes at Michigan International Speedway.  To reinforce those performances, the driver of the No. 12 Ford showed up at the similar oval in Fontana this March and raced to a fifth-place finish in the Auto Club 400.  Penske definitely has an edge on these two-mile ovals, and Blaney has shown that benefit over the last year.

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran snapped out of a mini-slump this past week by cracking the Top 10 at Pocono Raceway.  Almirola will ride that momentum into the Irish Hills this weekend.  He brings that Top-10 potential to Michigan International Speedway, considering how well he raced on these two-mile ovals last season for SHR.  Almirola nabbed a ninth-place finish at Fontana earlier this season, and he grabbed 11th- and seventh-place finishes at the Michigan oval in 2018.  The veteran driver has 13 starts at the Michigan oval, and his career-best finish of seventh-place came in his last start.  We expect him to challenge that mark in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.

Daniel Suarez – Fresh off his fifth Top-10 finish of the season with his eighth-place effort at Pocono last Sunday, the young driver of the No. 41 Ford sets his sights on the Michigan oval.  Suarez has been doing some good things this season in this Stewart Haas Racing Ford and he just continues to improve and show maturity beyond his years.  This will be just his fifth-career start at Michigan International Speedway.  Each visit has shown incremental improvement.  Suarez logged a respectable 11th-place finish in last August's Consumers Energy 400 at MIS.  That was his last start at this facility.  The young driver was a Top-15 finisher earlier this season at the Fontana oval, and we believe he can be even better than that at Michigan.   

William Byron – A pair of pole positions and a pair of ninth-place finishes have been Byron's body of work the last two races.  The Hendrick Motorsports youngster and his new crew chief, Chad Knaus, may finally be figuring out their driver-crew chief chemistry. Byron faces another week of good potential.  The two-mile ovals have been pretty decent to the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet since his rookie season.  Three Top-15 finishes in four starts between Fontana and Michigan have been a bright spot in what was a turbulent rookie season last year.  That's a great statistic to lean on going into Sunday's race.  Byron is figuring things out right now, and getting better with every start.  

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time champion is a one-time Michigan winner, but this is far from one of his favorite tracks.  With 13 Top-10 finishes in 34 starts (38-percent) Michigan ranks as one of Johnson's bottom tier tracks in terms of average finish and Top-10 rate.  He's only cracked the Top 10 twice in his last eight Michigan starts, and that's not a very encouraging statistic.  Last season Johnson collected disappointing 20th- and 28th-place finishes at the two-mile oval.  His 17th-place finish earlier this season at the similar Fontana oval, and his subpar 19th-place finish at the vast Pocono Raceway this past weekend weigh heavily on our mind entering the weekend.  It would be a good idea to take a break from Johnson for now in weekly lineup leagues.

Alex Bowman – With the No. 88 Chevrolet team cooling off from their recent four-race Top-10 streak that included three runner-up finishes, it may be best to back away from Bowman this weekend.  The young driver came back to Earth this past week at Pocono and registered a 15th-place finish to end his Top-10 string.  Bowman really didn't do much of anything to distinguish himself in that race, and that's noteworthy considering the past month that he had.  His nine-career starts at Michigan have amounted to little more than two Top-20 finishes at an average finish of 29.0.  To reinforce this notion, Bowman peddled to a poor 21st-place finish at Fontana in March.  It doesn't appear that these two-mile ovals appeal to Bowman.  It's best to set him aside this weekend.

Ryan Newman – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran is currently in the middle of a four-race Top-10 drought.  After posting a string of three Top 10's in April, May was a disappointing month for the No. 6 Ford team.  Newman is a two-time Michigan winner from way back (2003 and 2004), but that might as well be ancient history in terms of racing.  The sad fact is that the two-mile Michigan oval has been a place of struggles and consistency issues for Newman over the years.  35-career starts have only yielded nine Top-10 finishes (26-percent), and he has just one Top 10 in his last six visits to the Irish Hills.  A poor Fontana performance earlier this year (22nd-place) just reinforces this notion.  Keep Newman out of the fantasy lineup at Michigan International Speedway.

Paul Menard – With just two Top-10 finishes so far this season, it's been a mixed bag for Menard and the No. 21 Ford team.  The short tracks have actually been kinder to this driver and team than the larger ovals in 2019.  That's a bit in conflict with recent historical norms for Wood Brothers Racing.  The veteran driver rides a five-race Top-10 drought into Michigan this weekend.  The huge two-mile oval has been more of a place of struggles than success for Menard the last few seasons.  He has one Top-10 in his last seven starts and two finishes outside the Top 20 during that span.  Menard slogged his way to a 20th-place finish earlier this season at the similar Fontana oval.  WE don't look for this driver and team to have a big impact in the FireKeepers Casino 400.