FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Big Oval Racing

As we put the wild restarts and fender-beating action of short track racing behind us, we look forward to this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series will pay their first and only visit of the season to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Historically, there have been two annual events at the Michigan oval, but a schedule shakeup two seasons ago has trimmed the action to just one race at the high speed, two-mile track. This facility has wowed us for years with some of the fastest speeds recorded in all of NASCAR. At its height we saw a pole qualifying lap of 206.558 mph in 2014 by Jeff Gordon, and that still stands as the pole qualifying record at MIS. The speeds have gradually drifted downwards in recent seasons due to many aerodynamic and performance changes to the Cup Series car, but we still see qualifying laps in the low 190's. With this being the lone event of 2023 at Michigan International Speedway there will be a lot of unknowns about handling and aerodynamics. Still, the race earlier this season at Fontana which is a similar two-mile oval will be likely our best preview of what's to come on Sunday. Chevrolet dominated most of that 400-mile event in February, and we'll soon see if the bowtie camp still has a firm grip on big oval dominance with the race at Michigan.   

The oval in Michigan has similar characteristics to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, which the NASCAR Cup Series raced at in February of this year. There was no pole qualifying that weekend due to weather, but average speeds were in that 170-180 mph range due mostly to the new generation stock car and the conditions. Speeds were down, but the action was up with a mind-blowing 28 lead changes in that event which was roughly double the number of lead changes we've seen at Fontana in recent seasons. NASCAR will hope to see that same action translate to Michigan International Speedway this weekend. Last year's 15 lead changes at MIS were a bit down from the 2021 event which featured 20, and still well below the level of competition NASCAR wants to create with the new generation stock car.   

Since we'll be looking back about five months at Fontana for some ideas on performance this weekend, that data will be a little bit dated as we've ran many races since then. Short term history for Michigan International Speedway should serve us well too, probably as far back as 2019. The drivers who have performed well at MIS over the years are certainly worth some added scrutiny. As always, hot streaks entering this weekend will play a part, so we'll keep an eye on those as well. The loop stats shown below cover the last 18 years or 34 races at Michigan International Speedway.

Throughout the years Michigan International Speedway was a track of parity. It seemed that any manufacturer was a contender for victory lane each time we visited the Irish Hills. However, the last few seasons have seen Michigan become a track of streaks. Ford drivers have reeled off eight-straight victories at the two-mile oval. Drivers from that brand will be defending their turf heading into Sunday's battle. Kevin Harvick has won five of the last seven events at the two-mile Michigan oval, and although he's been winless so far in 2023, he'll be a driver under great scrutiny this weekend. Ford drivers have found it difficult to win this season (just 3 victories so far), so the brand's big Michigan win streak is on the line this Sunday.

This event one year ago saw Harvick seize control after a late accident and caution period to supplant Denny Hamlin at the front. The Stewart Haas Racing star would go onto lead the final 38 laps at Michigan and collect the big victory to keep Ford's current Michigan win streak rolling. Ford drivers have only won three of the 22 events thus far this season, so they'll be at a big disadvantage. Toyota drivers seem to have the momentum right now with two of the last three wins going to this manufacturer. Drivers like Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell will be squarely in the spotlight this weekend to see if Toyota can solve the Michigan puzzle and return the brand to victory lane at MIS for the first time since 2015. We'll outline the drivers with past history and Michigan and current streaking drivers that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick – Never underestimate this driver and team's ability to dominate and win at the Michigan oval. Harvick is a six-time winner at Michigan International Speedway and five of those victories have come in just the last seven starts at MIS. His well over 700 laps led at this track, 16 Top-5 and 22 Top-10 finishes are truly amazing statistics. Harvick has been consistent this season, but not really in race-winning form. However, he has had some success on the larger ovals as his fifth-place Fontana and fourth-place Pocono finishes illustrate. The Top 5 at the similar Fontana oval is particularly interesting given how comparable to the two tracks are in configuration. He had little trouble racing through the field in that 400-mile battle.       

Joey Logano – Logano erased his Pocono heartbreak with a strong Top-5 performance at Richmond this past weekend. That effort comes just in time for what has been solidly a Ford track in recent years. Logano's three-career victories at Michigan International Speedway rank him among the active leaders at this track. Additionally, his 69-percent Top-10 rate at MIS is very strong and among the best rates in the Cup Series. With close to 600 laps led at Michigan, Logano is used to racing up front here. Given his production and performance on big ovals this season (19 laps led and Top 10 at Fontana, 21 laps led before crash recently at Pocono) the No. 22 Penske Ford team could be a homerun threat in the FireKeepers Casino 400.  

Denny Hamlin – His sixth-place finish at Fontana earlier this season and recent win at Pocono illustrate how dangerous the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team is on the bigger ovals in 2023. Hamlin is coming off a runner-up finish at Richmond and carrying a lot of momentum into Michigan International Speedway. The veteran Toyota driver is a two-time winner at MIS (2010 and 2011) and while those victories were some time ago, he's been a career-long performer here as his additional three runner-up Michigan finishes illustrate. Hamlin is riding a five-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this weekend's action and two of those efforts were runner-up finishes (2019 and 2020). In this event one year ago, the Joe Gibbs Racing star led 38 laps and looked poised to win before Harvick upset him late.  

Kyle Busch – Busch won a convincing victory earlier this season at the Fontana two-mile oval. He led 27 laps en route to his fifth-career win at Auto Club Speedway. That experience will aide Busch at Michigan International Speedway. While he's had less success at this two-mile oval (one-career win), Busch does have over 250 laps led at MIS as well as nine-career Top-5 finishes. Five of those Top 5's has come in Busch's last eight starts at Michigan. The Richard Childress Racing star is coming off a strong third-place finish at Richmond this past Sunday and will look to carry that momentum into Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400. He's likely Chevrolet's top threat to upset the Ford party at Michigan. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex enters this weekend with a three-race Top-10 streak in tow and looking to build momentum as we had towards the playoffs. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 275 laps in his last three races and it's clear that this driver and team are getting some things honed sharp for the championship run. Truex rides a six-race Michigan Top-10 streak into Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 and he sports a steady 47-percent career Top-10 rate at the two-mile oval in the Irish Hills. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota was 11th-place at Fontana earlier this season, but he was a much sharper third-place at Pocono two weeks ago. Truex will be a solid driver to depend on at Michigan.

Kyle Larson – Larson has been a bit inconsistent of late, but the intermediate and large ovals have been his strength throughout his career. The 2021 Cup Series champion has always liked the two-mile ovals as his two-career Fontana victories and three-career Michigan wins illustrate this fact. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet rides a three-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this Sunday and that has boosted Larson's career Top-10 rate at Michigan to a whopping 57-percent. Despite battling some bad luck and inconsistencies of late, we have to look past that for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan International Speedway is easily one of Larson's favorite ovals on the circuit.

Chase Elliott – Elliott had a subpar week this past Sunday at Richmond but he should strongly rebound to form this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star has never won at Michigan but he has registered three runner-up finishes at the Irish Hills speedway. Elliott's 83-percent career Top-10 rate at this track is almost too dazzling to comprehend and his start in this event one year ago an 11th-place finish, which was his lowest finish down the order here since 2019. The similar two-mile oval in Fontana offered up a strong runner-up finish to Elliott earlier this season, so his big oval performance is still pretty sharp. More recently, he nabbed a Top-10 finish at the big Pocono oval, so that's a good sign heading to Michigan. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet will be a Top-10 driver in the FireKeepers Casino 400.  

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has had a pretty good season thus far. Keselowski has rebounded from the horrible 2022 campaign he struggled through to post nine Top 10's so far this season and ride a comfortable 11th-place in the driver standings into Michigan this weekend. The veteran driver has always liked these huge ovals. Keselowski has never won at MIS, but he owns three-career runner-up finishes here, and his 13 Top 10's checks in at a strong 52-percent rate. Earlier this season at the similar Fontana oval, he drove from 16th on the starting grid to a respectable seventh-place finish in the Pala Casino 400. We should see a similar performance from Keselowski at Michigan.       

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Michigan & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Despite some recent struggles, Blaney gets a fantasy upgrade this weekend. Call it the "Ford" factor at Michigan. The Penske Racing star is a one-time winner at the two-mile Michigan oval. In addition to Blaney's win, he now has seven Top-10 finishes at MIS for a steady 50-percent rate. He had a lot of struggles earlier in his career at this track but has reversed them in recent seasons to bolster his career-stats at Michigan. Blaney has a lot on the line in terms of the championship picture. He has one win and qualifies for the playoffs, but Blaney needs to secure as many points as he can between now at the regular season cutoff at Daytona to improve his seeding. 

William Byron – Byron showed us his muscle a couple weeks ago on the big oval in Pocono. He won the pole position, led 60 laps and looked poised to challenge for the win. However, a late-race mistake led to a penalty which would put him in 14th-place at the end. There is some risk associated with Byron and the No. 24 team, but the homerun potential is hard to ignore. He has two Top-10 finishes in his last five Michigan starts, and one of those efforts netted 18 laps led and a runner-up finish in this event two years ago. In this event one year ago, Byron pedaled the No. 24 Chevrolet to a respectable 12th-place finish in that 400-mile battle. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has good potential in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick's 15 laps led and brilliant runner-up finish at Pocono is a real eye-catcher heading to Michigan. He followed that up with a strong 81 laps led and good performance at Richmond, but problems would relegate him to 16th-place. The 23XI Racing star hasn't had the best luck at Michigan International Speedway in four starts (25.0) average finish. However, Reddick's average start of 9.3 indicates good cars and good speed. It's clear that the young driver will have great potential for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The last three races have seen a 180 turn in this driver and team. Reddick has erased a lot of the struggles he had in June and early-July. That potential is tantalizing coming to the oval in the Irish Hills this weekend. 

Christopher Bell – Bell was a recent sixth-place finisher at the big Pocono oval, and that good qualifying/race effort teases his potential for Michigan International Speedway. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver sat on the pole at Fontana earlier this season, but would crash out of that weather-affected race. Bell flexed his Michigan muscles in this event one year ago by sitting on the outside pole and leading 31 laps in last season's FireKeepers Casino 400. However, the driver of the No. 20 Toyota would crash and finish 26th-place late in that event. Other than that, he's generally been a Top-15 finisher in his prior Michigan starts, and we're willing to bet he's a Top-10 challenger in Sunday's 400-mile battle.     

Bubba Wallace – It's been just two races since Wallace's respectable 11th-place finish at Pocono Raceway. That's a good sign of where the No. 23 Toyota team are in terms of big oval performance. It's a far cry from the 30th-place finish he registered at Fontana back in February. Wallace turned in a career-best Michigan performance in this race one year ago. He'd pilot the No. 23 Toyota to the pole position, lead 22 laps and cross the finish line second-place to Kevin Harvick in the 2022 edition of the FireKeepers Casino 400. That would be just his second Top-10 finish at Michigan International Speedway, but well above and beyond anything Wallace had achieved before at the facility. We believe those notes will serve this driver and team well this time around.  

Alex Bowman – Bowman earned a Top-10 finish at Michigan last season, and that was just one of three-career Top 10's for the veteran driver at the Irish Hills oval. That may lead some fantasy racing players to pass over Bowman and the No. 48 team, but we believe that would be a mistake. Earlier this season at Fontana, a similar two-mile oval, he piloted the No. 48 Chevrolet to 17 laps led and a strong eighth-place finish in the Pala Casino 400. Bowman also led 110 laps and won at the Fontana track two seasons prior. He clearly knows what it takes to have success on these two-mile ovals. We believe the Hendrick Motorsports driver has a good chance to crack the Top 10 in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – Chastain has fallen into quite a rut of late. The Trackhouse Racing star is currently mired in a five-race Top-10 drought since his big win at Nashville in late-June. This past weekend it was a perplexing 24th-place finish at Richmond. The No. 1 Chevrolet team has not qualified well in recent weeks and they've shown no ability to race forward through the field. Despite a Top-3 finish at the similar oval in Fontana earlier this season, we believe this weekend could be a very different story at Michigan International Speedway. Chastain hasn't had the best luck at MIS over his career either. Five-career starts have yielded only one Top-25 finish and an average finish of 29.8.

Daniel Suarez – The same struggles that have afflicted Chastain have also plagued Suarez recently. The other Trackhouse Racing driver is mired in a three-race Top-10 slump, and has just one Top 10 in the last seven events. Suarez has tumbled from 16th- to 19th-place in the points during this span. Most recently, the driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet crashed and finished 36th-place at the big oval in Pocono. That's a disturbing sign heading to Michigan this week. Suarez has just two Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts at MIS (20-percent) and he hasn't posted a Top 10 here since 2019. The average finish is coming in around 20.8. In this event one year ago, he led an amazing 33 laps, but ran into trouble, fell off the lead lap and finished a distant 25th-place.  

Austin Cindric – It's been a long, tough season for the driver of the No. 2 Penske Racing Ford. Cindric has just three Top-10 finishes all season long and is a distant 22nd-place in the driver standings. His big oval performances of this year have netted 28th- and 23rd-place finishes at Fontana and recently at Pocono. The prospects do not look good for this driver and team heading to the Irish Hills of Michigan Sunday. Cindric's start in this event one year ago is his lone Cup Series experience at Michigan International Speedway. He would make just 24 of the 200 laps before being rolled up in big, multi-car crash and finishing 37th-place that August afternoon of last year.

Aric Almirola – Of the drivers in the Stewart Haas Racing camp, Almirola has had it the toughest at Michigan International Speedway. With just two Top-10 finishes in 19 starts (11-percent) and a 19.1 average finish, the veteran driver has the lowest performance stats of all the SHR drivers at Michigan. Almirola's start at the similar Fontana oval earlier this season resulted in a crash and DNF. His luck in two-mile oval racing has been very shaky to say the least. The driver of the No. 10 Ford has just one Top 10 at Michigan International Speedway since the 2019 season, and his start in this event one year ago resulted in an early-race crash and DNF in last season's FireKeepers Casino 400.