Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview: The Chase Comes to Richmond

We head to Richmond, Va., and Richmond Raceway this weekend for the second race in the Chase for the Cup playoffs.  During the Chase era, this had been the track where NASCAR ended its regular season, and determined the field for the Chase.  However, the schedule got a shakeup two seasons ago, and now this exciting night race on the historic short track plays host to the second race of 10 that determines the NASCAR Cup Series champion.  

The urgency and the heated competition will be different this weekend.  Instead of trying to make it across the cutline for the playoffs, drivers will instead be trying to make it past the cut of the first round of the Chase.  This Richmond race will have a different feel, but all the same importance as the past.  Drivers will be going all out to grab that valuable win that transfers them into the second round of the Chase playoffs.  As we saw at Darlington this past weekend, drivers are taking chances at this point in the season that they have not up until this point.  That will make for higher stakes, more contact, harder racing and when we put that under the lights at Richmond Raceway, we're sure to be thrilled by what we see take place. 

Since Richmond's oval is a short track with its own group of dominant drivers, let's take a quick look at the recent history of this facility and see who will be running up front this weekend.  The short tracks usually produce familiar names when it comes to driver efficiency, so some of these drivers should look familiar as compared to New Hampshire which was run just a few weeks ago.  The urgency to advance in the Chase will have an impact on performances, but we still expect the short track aces to have the best outings at Richmond.  Here are the loop stats for the last 30 races at Richmond Raceway.

This was supposed to be the second of two races this season at Richmond Raceway.  The first time around was cancelled in April due to the Coronavirus shut down of all major sports.  Instead, we'll be racing for the first time in 2020 at the Virginia short track this weekend.  That valuable early-season track time and information won't be available to the drivers this weekend for this very important playoff race.  Instead, teams will have to look back on last season and other recent outings at Richmond to get a feel for the setup.  For fantasy racing purposes, we'll be in the same boat.  We're going to have to look closely at what happened at Richmond in 2019 and just beyond to get a feel for our driver selections this round.  Also, a bit of a nod will need to go to current hot streaks.  We've had some inconsistent drivers come to life in recent weeks and we don't want to leave them out of the party at Richmond.

If we look back to last season we get very good vibes for the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team and Truex Jr.  The star driver led almost 300 combined laps at Richmond's short track and swept both races.  Coincidentally, the wins were his first at the facility in his career.  Truex's 26 prior starts at Richmond had yet to produce a victory, so he got off the bench in a big way at this oval in 2019.  There were several suitors who challenged Truex for those Richmond wins.  Some of them have had good short track seasons in 2020, so the outlook is very bright for those drivers.  We'll highlight them, along with Truex and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy league this weekend at Richmond Raceway for the Federated Auto Parts 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – Coming off the strong performance but disappointing finish at Darlington, Truex is heating up as we enter the Chase.  The No. 19 Toyota team led 196 laps but got into a late-race tangle with Chase Elliott and would fall back to finish 22nd last Sunday night.  We expect him to finish what he started this week at Richmond Raceway.  Truex swept both Richmond races in 2019, and he's led a whopping 970 laps at this short track since 2016.  His last three starts on ovals one-mile in size or less has netted a victory (Martinsville) and a pair of runner-up finishes.  The way Truex has raced this oval in recent seasons, he has to be viewed as the top contender for Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400. 

Kevin Harvick – The SHR star showed a lot of potential at Darlington this past weekend.  Harvick wasn't the most dominant driver on track, but he found a way to rise late and take the win in the Cook Out Southern 500.  The urgency to win and advance in the Chase will be off this weekend at Richmond.  The veteran driver is already locked into round 2 with his Darlington win.  That relaxed atmosphere is just the thing that may help Harvick to win Saturday night at Richmond Raceway.  Harvick is just too good at this short track to ignore.  He is a three-time winner at the small oval, and he rides a four-race Richmond Top-10 streak into this weekend.  Harvick also sports an incredible 40-percent Top-5 rate at this facility.  The veteran driver has to feel very confident going into this 400-lap battle under the lights.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming to Richmond at the right time and is in need of a boost.  His disappointing 13th-place finish at Darlington this past week has the No. 11 JGR team looking forward to a better performance.  He is a three-time Richmond winner, and he sports a strong 48-percent Top-5 rate at the ¾-mile oval.  With over 1,650 laps led at Richmond, Hamlin is quite comfortable with racing at this historic short track.  Last season the Joe Gibbs Racing star nabbed fifth- and third-place finishes at Richmond Raceway.  Hamlin has not been the best short track performer in 2020, however, he has the ability to sneak up and steal a win Saturday night. 

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is on a good streak coming to Richmond.  Keselowski has three Top 10's in the last four events entering Chase race number two.  Keselowski will look to exploit his short track racing expertise in this 400-lap event.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford has fairly average career numbers at the Richmond oval, but he's been getting much sharper in recent appearances.  He won this event in 2014, finished runner-up in the spring 2017 Richmond race, and he's led over 180 laps in his last three starts at Richmond Raceway.  Keselowski won the pole, led 89 laps and finished a brilliant fourth-place here in his last Richmond start.  Considering how well the No. 2 Ford team has performed on short tracks this season, you can't count Keselowski out. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – Richmond Raceway is statistically Busch's best oval on the circuit.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has six-career victories and a whopping 18 Top-5 finishes at the Virginia short track.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota clearly knows how to run up front at Richmond, and the numbers bear this out.  His 18 Top-5 finishes check in at a stellar 62-percent rate for the star of this Toyota racing camp.  Busch swept this oval in 2018, and although he hasn't won yet in 2020, that makes him a very dangerous driver this Saturday night.  He's been one of the top short track performers of the season with Top-5 finishes at Phoenix, Bristol and Dover.    

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has been greatly improved over the past several races.  He has led 51 combined laps in the last three races and it all culminated in Logano's third-place finish at Darlington this past Sunday night.  Logano is quite skilled at racing at Richmond as his stats bear out.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford has two runner-up finishes and two-career victories at the Virginia short track.  The career marks check in at impressive 41- and 55-percent Top-5 and Top-10 rates respectively.  Four of Logano's last six starts at Richmond Raceway have netted Top-5 finishes.  He and the Penske Racing team are pretty dialed-in at this historic short track.      

Chase Elliott – Elliott does not have the kind of Richmond stats that inspire much confidence, but it's been what he's done there of late that bears the most scrutiny.  Only three of his nine-career starts at Richmond have netted Top 10's, but all three have come in the last five starts.  Elliott led 114 laps and looked fantastic this past weekend at Darlington.  However, an aggressive move by Martin Truex Jr. late in the event took them both out of contention for the win.  We expect the No. 9 team to shake that setback off and focus solidly on Richmond this Saturday night.  Elliott's short track stats this season have been superb with two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in six events. His 218 laps led on the short track circuit are noteworthy as well.    

William Byron – Speaking of drivers heating up of late, that label fits Byron well entering the second race of the Chase.  The young Hendrick Motorsports driver rides a three-race Top-5 streak into Richmond, that includes the big Daytona win that catapulted the No. 24 team into the playoffs.  Byron has yet to make his mark on Richmond in four-career starts.  He only has a pair of Top-15 finishes in those efforts.  However, we feel that will change after Saturday night.  Byron has been a great performer on the short tracks this season.  He has four Top 10's in the six events to-date.  Byron and crew chief, Chad Knaus, are finally developing some chemistry and some momentum in their third season together.  Byron has a very high fantasy racing ceiling for this Federated Auto Parts 400.      

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Richmond & solid upside

Jimmie Johnson – Although Johnson was eliminated from the Chase for the Cup playoffs he'll still have some fantasy racing utility in the races he has left in 2020.  This will be his last-career start at the Richmond oval.  Johnson owns three wins and 16 Top-10 finishes at Richmond Raceway.  It's not one of his better short tracks, but still a steady numbers producer.  Recent seasons have seen him nab four Top 10's in his last five Richmond starts.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has been more consistent on short tracks this season than the larger ovals.  Johnson has four Top-10 finishes in six starts this season on tracks one-mile in size or smaller.  Coming off a subpar Darlington finish, he should be well motivated for this 400-lap battle.    

Kurt Busch – Busch has hopes to build on his good start to the Chase.  He peddled the No. 1 Chevrolet to a strong eighth-place finish at Darlington last weekend, and will be looking to stay on a roll at Richmond's short track.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has two-career victories, over 900 laps led and 15 Top-10 finishes at this historic Richmond oval.  Those numbers dovetail nicely with his short track efforts of this season.  Finishes of sixth-, seventh- and ninth-place at Phoenix, Bristol and Martinsville bode well for Busch's chances this weekend.  Busch is digging his heels in for a potentially deep drive into this season's playoffs, and a good performance at Richmond will propel him to that goal. 

Clint Bowyer – While his chances of winning and advancing in the Chase are slim, Bowyer still has to be very optimistic about this Saturday night.  The veteran driver has been racing with a real sense of urgency the last month or so, and it showed with his steady 10th-place finish at Darlington this past weekend.  Bowyer sports some pretty strong career Richmond stats.  He's a two-time winner at the historic short track, and he has a strong 12.5 average finish for his career at the facility.  The veteran driver cracks the Top 10 here at a very respectable 57-percent rate.  Bowyer finished third- and eighth-place in his two Richmond starts last season.  With advancing in the Chase for the Cup on the line, the No. 14 team and Bowyer should step up their game considerably at Richmond. 

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been a real useful driver of late.  The No. 88 team has heated up in the late summer and they ride a three-race Top-10 streak into Richmond this weekend.  Bowman knows the playoffs are underway and he's definitely racing with that urgency.  His sixth-place finish this past Sunday night at Darlington was an outlier for that track, and he's likely to pull that trick again at Richmond Raceway.  This short track has not been an oval of success for the veteran driver. Bowman's eight-career starts at this facility have only netted one Top-15 finish and an average finish of 25.6.  However, he's been greatly improved on the short tracks this season.  Bowman nabbed a strong sixth-place finish at Martinsville and more recently a surprising fifth-place finish at Dover.  He's a driver to watch closely this Saturday night.       

Austin Dillon – As the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing team continue their strong march into the playoffs, we have to keep Dillon flagged for a good performance at Richmond this weekend.  Dillon posted a brilliant runner-up finish to kick off the Chase at Darlington this past weekend, and he's riding that momentum into the Federated Auto Parts 400.  Short tracks have been steady for this driver and team in 2020.  Dillon grabbed a sixth-place Bristol finish in the late spring, and more recently he posted a respectable ninth-place finish at Dover.  Richmond has yielded some recent success to the RCR veteran.  Dillon has grabbed a pair of sixth-place finishes in his last three Richmond starts.  Given this team's current level of performance and that recent Richmond success, we feel like Dillon has a very high potential for this Federated Auto Parts 400.      

Aric Almirola – While there was no way the No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing team could keep up their torrid June-to-August pace, Almirola has still been productive leading into the NASCAR playoffs.  With Top-10 finishes in two of the last four events, he's still remaining relevant in the championship picture.  Almirola will admit that Richmond Raceway isn't one of his better ovals, but recent visits have been promising two Top 10's in his last six starts.  We expect this driver and team to dig deep to pull out a good performance in this 400-lap battle.  Almirola's recent 22 laps led and seventh-place finish at the Dover short track is a good example of the potential. 

 Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – The driver of the No. 12 Penske Racing Ford has had a wildly inconsistent season to this point.  His disappointing 24th-place finish at Darlington this past weekend is a good example of those struggles.  Blaney's Richmond resume shows eight-career starts and only three Top-20 finishes.  One was a 17th-place effort in this race one year ago and an 19th-place finish the prior season.  Blaney's 25.5 average finish at this Virginia short track ranks as one of his worst ovals on the circuit.  This young driver and team could prove us wrong Saturday night, but Blaney appears to be one of the top drivers to avoid this weekend.

Erik Jones – The Top-5 finish that Jones posted at Darlington this past Sunday night was right in line with his career numbers at that facility.  The Joe Gibbs Racing driver loves that South Carolina race track and it shows in the stats.  However, his dislike of the Richmond oval is just as apparent.  Richmond Raceway has been stingy with this young driver to this point in his career.  Jones has just one Top-10 finish in six starts at Richmond and a 20.0 average finish.  That's pretty close to where he finished here last season in two starts (26.0 avg.), but one of those was a disqualification.  Short tracks in 2020 have been pretty lean for the No. 20 Toyota team, so it's a very questionable decision to deploy this driver and team in fantasy leagues this week. 

Christopher Bell – Bell's up-and-down season will continue in the Federated Auto Parts 400.  The short tracks have been a bigger part of the "down" in this rookie campaign.  Bell has just one Top 10 on the short track circuit this season and an inflated average finish of 23.0.  Recent trends have not been good either with just one Top-15 finish in his last five events and 23.4 average finish across that span.  This will be Bell's Cup Series debut at the Richmond oval.  So there's no historical data to examine.  The lack of short track performance this season coupled with no data at Richmond Raceway make Bell and the No. 95 team a non-fantasy racing option for this 400-lap event. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The driver of the No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet limps into this weekend's second race of the Chase.  Stenhouse's recent malaise has dropped him to 24th-place in the driver point standings entering Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400.  Richmond Raceway has been a track of career-long struggles for this veteran driver.  In 14-career starts Stenhouse has only managed two Top-10 finishes and an average finish of 19.1.  While his numbers have improved later in his career, they're still below average among the field.  Short tracks this season have been tough for the No. 47 team with only one Top 10 in six events and an inflated 23.0 average finish.  We believe Stenhouse his squarely looking at a mid-20's finish again Saturday night at Richmond.