This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
We head to Richmond, Va., and Richmond Raceway this weekend for the second race of the Chase for the Cup. During the Chase era, this has been the track where NASCAR has ended its regular season, and determined the field for the Chase. However, the schedule got a shakeup last year, and now this exciting night race on the historic short track plays host to the second race of 10 that determine the Monster Energy Cup Series champion. The urgency and the heated competition will be different this weekend. Instead of trying to make it across the cutline for the playoffs, drivers will instead be trying to make it past the cut of the first round of the Chase. This Richmond race will have a different feel, but all the same importance as the past. Drivers will be going all out to grab that valuable win that transfers them into the second round of the Chase playoffs. As we saw at Las Vegas this past weekend, drivers are taking chances at this point in the season that they have not up until this point. That will make for higher stakes, more contact, harder racing and when we put that under the lights at Richmond Raceway, we're sure to be thrilled by what we see take place.
Since Richmond's oval is a short track with its own group of dominant drivers, let's take a quick look at the recent history of this facility and see who will be running up front
We head to Richmond, Va., and Richmond Raceway this weekend for the second race of the Chase for the Cup. During the Chase era, this has been the track where NASCAR has ended its regular season, and determined the field for the Chase. However, the schedule got a shakeup last year, and now this exciting night race on the historic short track plays host to the second race of 10 that determine the Monster Energy Cup Series champion. The urgency and the heated competition will be different this weekend. Instead of trying to make it across the cutline for the playoffs, drivers will instead be trying to make it past the cut of the first round of the Chase. This Richmond race will have a different feel, but all the same importance as the past. Drivers will be going all out to grab that valuable win that transfers them into the second round of the Chase playoffs. As we saw at Las Vegas this past weekend, drivers are taking chances at this point in the season that they have not up until this point. That will make for higher stakes, more contact, harder racing and when we put that under the lights at Richmond Raceway, we're sure to be thrilled by what we see take place.
Since Richmond's oval is a short track with its own group of dominant drivers, let's take a quick look at the recent history of this facility and see who will be running up front this weekend. The short tracks usually produce familiar names when it comes to driver efficiency, so some of these drivers should look familiar as compared to Bristol which was run just a few weeks ago. The urgency to advance in the Chase will have an impact on performances, but we still expect the short track aces to have the best outings at Richmond. Here are the loop stats for the last 29 races at Richmond Raceway.
| Driver | Avg. Finish | Quality Passes | # of Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Laps in Top 15 | Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 7.9 | 905 | 798 | 1,092 | 10,814 | 110.4 |
| Kyle Busch | 7.0 | 834 | 782 | 1,282 | 9,947 | 110.2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9.4 | 696 | 800 | 1,659 | 8,719 | 107.2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 13.2 | 601 | 493 | 871 | 6,114 | 98.2 |
| Kurt Busch | 13.8 | 751 | 520 | 787 | 7,834 | 95.3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 12.7 | 681 | 292 | 393 | 7,740 | 93.9 |
| Joey Logano | 11.1 | 480 | 208 | 334 | 5,048 | 91.9 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 18.5 | 613 | 458 | 909 | 6,805 | 89.7 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 14.3 | 703 | 365 | 337 | 7,161 | 89.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 12.2 | 321 | 68 | 73 | 3,212 | 88.7 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.6 | 902 | 164 | 129 | 8,289 | 88.1 |
| Chase Elliott | 12.8 | 209 | 39 | 34 | 1,798 | 83.3 |
| William Byron | 15.0 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 743 | 79.2 |
| Aric Almirola | 16.0 | 261 | 87 | 1 | 2,305 | 76.7 |
| Daniel Suarez | 12.8 | 122 | 45 | 0 | 822 | 72.6 |
| Austin Dillon | 18.4 | 219 | 29 | 0 | 1,885 | 72.5 |
| Erik Jones | 16.4 | 103 | 26 | 0 | 985 | 71.0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.5 | 216 | 98 | 2 | 1,356 | 69.2 |
| Paul Menard | 23.9 | 144 | 75 | 4 | 1,352 | 61.1 |
| David Ragan | 23.4 | 212 | 63 | 0 | 1,263 | 60.1 |
This is the second of two races this season at Richmond Raceway. The first time around was race number nine in the schedule in April of this year. It was the first of five victories this season for Joe Gibbs Racing star, Martin Truex Jr., and his first-career win at the Richmond oval. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota outdueled Joey Logano over the closing laps of the race to capture the win. He would prevail over several suitors for victory lane that Saturday evening. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Logano, and Brad Keselowski would all spend significant time in the lead, but would not have the solution for the No. 19 Toyota of Truex. The victory for the Gibbs camp gives Toyota and JGR a three-race Richmond win streak, and six of the last eight win at this historic short track. Truex now returns to Richmond in great shape after his big Chase-advancing win at Las Vegas this past weekend. The pressure is off, and that might be the biggest ally of Truex and the No. 19 team. They can race relaxed and have fun. That's bad news for the competition.
Once again this weekend, the biggest threat to Toyota dominance at Richmond will come from the Ford teams of Stewart Haas Racing and Penske Racing. Kevin Harvick is on fire right now and has won or finished runner-up in three of the last five races coming to Virginia. Harvick is one of the top drivers to beat every week, and Richmond weekend will be no exception. His Penske Racing counterpart, Brad Keselowski, is also surging and has three Top-5 finishes in the last four races. Also, we can't count out the powerful Chevrolets of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. Larson recently led 62 laps and finished sixth at the short track in Bristol, and Elliott has a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three Richmond starts. Both are upset minded entering this second race of the NASCAR playoffs. With so much on the line for so many drivers and teams this weekend, there's certainly going to be a lot of scrambling in this 400-lap event. The following is our review of the drivers to challenge for the checkers, and to post solid runs at Richmond Raceway.
The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win
Martin Truex Jr. – Coming off the strong performance and victory at Las Vegas, Truex is getting the ship righted as we enter the Chase. The No. 19 Toyota team led 186 laps and won this past April at Richmond Raceway, and that was Truex's first career win at the Richmond oval. It was a just reward for having dominated so many recent Richmond races, but coming up short in the win column. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led a whopping 861 laps at the Richmond short track in just his last six starts. It's really a wonder Truex hasn't piled up multiple Richmond victories over the last three seasons. With a lot of momentum coming off the Las Vegas win, the confidence of recently dominating this Virginia short track, Truex has to be viewed as the top contender for Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400.
Kevin Harvick – The SHR star showed a lot of potential at Las Vegas this past weekend. Harvick led 47 laps but would fall short of Martin Truex Jr. and finish second in the South Point 400. The urgency to win and advance in the Chase will step up this weekend at Richmond. Harvick is just too good at Richmond Raceway to ignore. He is a three-time winner at the small oval, and he finished runner-up in this event one year ago. Harvick also sports an incredible 65-percent Top-10 rate at this facility. The veteran driver has cracked the Top 5 in six of his last seven Richmond starts. With well over 1,100 laps led at this oval, Harvick has to feel very confident going into the Federated Auto Parts 400.
Kyle Busch – Richmond Raceway is statistically Busch's best oval on the circuit. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has six-career victories and a whopping 17 Top-5 finishes at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota clearly knows how to run up front at Richmond, and the numbers bear this out. His 17 Top-5 finishes check in at a stellar 61-percent rate for the surging star of this Toyota racing camp. Busch won this event at Richmond one year ago, and that makes him a very dangerous driver this Saturday night. He's been one of the top short track performers of the season with one win, and three Top-5 finishes on the bull ring circuit.
Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is on a good streak coming to Richmond. After the third-place finish at Las Vegas, Keselowski has three Top 5's in the last four events entering Chase race number two. Keselowski will look to exploit his short track racing expertise in this 400-lap event. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has fairly average career numbers at the Richmond oval, but he's been getting much sharper in recent appearances. He won this event in 2014, finished runner-up in the spring 2017 Richmond race, and he's led over 850 laps since the 2013 season at Richmond Raceway. Keselowski led 31 laps and finished a steady seventh in April's Toyota Owners 400, but we feel he'll be much faster this time around.
Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win
Kyle Larson – Larson has high hopes for a good finish this weekend at Richmond Raceway this weekend. He's already climbing the standings after his eighth-place finish at Vegas last weekend to kick off the Chase. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver's performances at this oval the last three years have been very noteworthy. Larson won this event two years ago for his first Richmond victory, and he finished runner-up in this event three years ago. You could say the fall race at Richmond is definitely in his wheelhouse. The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet recently qualified on the outside pole, led 62 laps and finished sixth at Bristol. That's a good barometer of potential for this race. Larson likes this track, and his team is in a good short track groove at the moment.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming to Richmond at the right time and is in need of a boost. His disappointing 15th-place finish at Las Vegas this past week has the No. 11 JGR team looking forward to a better oval. He is a three-time Richmond winner, and he sports a strong 46-percent Top-5 rate at the ¾-mile oval. With over 1,650 laps led at Richmond, Hamlin is quite comfortable with racing at this historic short track. In April's Toyota Owners 400, the Joe Gibbs Racing star qualified a distant 30th on the gird, but had no trouble rallying and finished fifth. That performance gives Hamlin seven Top 10's in his last eight Richmond starts. He has the ability to sneak up and steal a win Saturday night, although he's a much safer Top-10 play for fantasy racing purposes.
Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has been greatly improved over the past two races. He endured a bit of an August swoon, but has locked things back down for the Chase. Logano has a runner-up and ninth-place finish in the last two events. That has the No. 22 team rebounding entering the Chase for the Cup. Logano is quite skilled at racing at Richmond as his stats bear out. The Penske Racing star has two runner-up and four Top-5 finishes in his last five Richmond starts, and he has two career victories at the Virginia short track. In April's Toyota Owners 400, Logano led 52 laps and finished second at the end of that Saturday evening. He has all the capability and momentum to repeat that performance again this Saturday night.
Chase Elliott – Elliott does not have the kind of Richmond stats that inspire much confidence, but it's been what he's done there of late that bears the most scrutiny. Only three of his eight-career starts at Richmond have netted Top 10's, but all three have come in the last four starts. Elliott led 34 laps and finished fourth-place in this event one year ago, and that was preceded by a runner-up finish at Richmond last spring. That was certainly a memorable performance. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been dramatically improved on the short tracks in general in 2019. Elliott has two pole positions and three Top-5 finishes in six starts this season on the ovals one-mile or less in size. With the playoffs underway, we believe Elliott will be on his game in Saturday's Federated Auto Parts 400.
Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Richmond & solid upside
Kurt Busch – Busch has hopes to rebound from his poor start to the Chase. He crashed and finished 39th last weekend at Las Vegas, and will be looking to right the ship at Richmond's short track. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has a win and six Top 10's in his last nine Richmond starts. The last time the series was in Virginia, Busch qualified on the outside pole and finished 11th in the Toyota Owners 400. The last time the Chip Ganassi Racing veteran was in action on a short track, Busch qualified fourth and finished ninth at Bristol Motor Speedway in August. The veteran driver likes this ¾-mile oval, and has the potential to rebound into the Top 10 this weekend.
Clint Bowyer – While his chances of winning and advancing in the Chase are slim, Bowyer still has to be very optimistic about this Saturday night. The veteran driver has been racing with a real sense of urgency the last month or so, but his luck has been poor at times. Bowyer sports some pretty strong career Richmond stats. He's a two-time winner at the historic short track, and he has a strong 12.7 average finish for his career at the facility. The veteran driver cracks the Top 10 here at a very respectable 56-percent rate. Bowyer finished a brilliant third-place here in the spring, and his odds at repeating that performance are better than average. With advancing in the Chase for the Cup on the line, the No. 14 team and Bowyer should step up their game considerably at Richmond.
Ryan Newman – Newman's recent hot spell has him riding a two-race Top-10 streak into Richmond, and he's been a Top-15 finisher four of his last five races. The even better news for the No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing team is that Newman has Richmond Raceway pegged. His 35-career starts at RIR have yielded one win, and 19 Top-10 (54-percent) finishes. Newman's most recent start at the oval in April was yet another solid outing. He finished ninth in the Toyota Owners 400. The short tracks have been more than kind to this veteran driver and team in 2019, and Newman should take full advantage in this very important race. Recent seventh- and 11th-place finishes at Loudon and Bristol should give this veteran driver a lot of confidence for this 400-mile battle.
Paul Menard – Menard has been a real useful driver on certain tracks this season, and his current hot streak even underscores his fantasy racing utility at the moment. The Wood Brothers Racing veteran has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five events leading into Richmond this week. Menard is fresh off a respectable 14th-place finish at Las Vegas this past Sunday night. Richmond Raceway has been a tough nut to crack for the 13-season veteran, but he showed real promise at the ¾-mile oval in April. Menard piloted the No. 21 Ford Mustang to a 10th-place finish in the Toyota Owners 400. It was just his second-career Top 10 at the oval, but his most recent sampling of work. The notes from that race should serve crew chief, Greg Erwin, and Menard really well this Saturday night.
Matt DiBenedetto – The Leavine Family Racing driver has simply been awesome in recent short track outings. DiBenedetto led 93 laps and finished second at Bristol a few weeks ago, and just prior to that he navigated the No. 95 Toyota to an impressive fifth-place result at New Hampshire. This journeyman driver is having an incredible 2019 season, and we don't expect it to halt at Richmond this Saturday night. While DiBenedetto's nine prior Richmond starts have only yielded one Top-20 finish, we have to throw that stat out of the window this weekend. This is a different driver, and a much more capable team than he's had in the past. Top-15 potential goes without saying, and if the breaks fall DiBenedetto's way a Top-10 finish could be in the cards.
Daniel Suarez – While Suarez's disappointing 20th-place finish at Las Vegas this past week ended a nice streak for the Stewart Haas Racing driver, we still have to recommend him for fantasy racing deployment this week at Richmond Raceway. Prior to that Vegas speed bump, Suarez had a string of four-straight Top-11 finishes in tow. He should rebound nicely at one of the series' best short tracks. Richmond Raceway has held some success in limited experience for this young driver. Suarez has picked up a pair of Top 10's and three Top 15's in his five-career starts at the Richmond short track. Although he was 18th there in April, we would view that has the floor for this weekend with a much higher ceiling. Suarez has an average finish at this track of 12.8 and that sounds just about right for the Federated Auto Parts 400.
Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week
Erik Jones – The Erik Jones freight train that rolled through most of July and August has run off the tracks in September. 39th- and 36th-place finishes in each of the last two races has him on shaky ground early in the Chase for the Cup. Jones will need to rebound solidly this weekend if he hopes to advance into round 2 of the Chase, but it will be a tall order. Richmond Raceway has been stingy with this young driver to this point in his career. Jones has just one Top-10 finish in five starts at Richmond and a 16.4 average finish. That's pretty close to where he finished here in April (14th-place), but we view that as his best potential this Saturday night. Recent bad luck is a more disturbing trend line to watch with regards to the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team.
Aric Almirola – The short tracks have been a poor affair at best for the No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing team this season. Almirola has struggled to just one Top 10 in six starts this season on ovals 1-mile in size or less. The average finish across that span comes in at a lofty 20.8 for the year. That's not a good sign for Almirola heading into this second race of the NASCAR playoffs. Almirola's Richmond numbers are the second tier of this prognostication. 15-career starts at the Virginia short track have only yielded five Top-10 finishes to this veteran driver (33-percent). In April, Almirola stumbled to a 23rd-place finish in the Toyota Owners 400. With so much on the line we'd like to think he could step up his game this Saturday night, but it's simply too risky for fantasy racing deployment.
Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy has had his ups-and-downs in 2019. There's no doubt about that. Bowman has labored to just eight Top-10 finishes so far, so the inconsistency and predictability has been a problem for this driver and team this season. Although he cracked the Top 10 at Las Vegas this week, that was an intermediate oval and that's been his strength this year. Short tracks have been a different story for this driver and team. Richmond has yielded only one Top-15 finish in seven-career starts for this driver. Bowman's 17th-place finish here in April is among his worst short track performances of this season. It's best to pass up the No. 88 team this week, and play it safer in weekly lineup leagues.
Ryan Blaney – The driver of the No. 12 Penske Racing Ford has had a great season to this point. However, Blaney like any other driver will have his weaknesses too. Short track racing in general has been that bugaboo for the young star. Although Blaney has shown vast improvement this season on the short track circuit, we still have unsettled feelings about his Richmond experience. The race earlier this year at Richmond Raceway was his only finish outside the Top 15 on a short track this season. Blaney's Richmond resume shows seven-career starts and only two Top-20 finishes. One was a 19th-place effort in this race one year ago and an 18th-place finish the prior season. Blaney's April Richmond outing was just as subpar. He labored to a 25th-place finish in this season's Toyota Owners 400. This young driver and team could prove us wrong Saturday night, but Blaney appears to be one of the top drivers to avoid this weekend.
