Fan Shield 500 Preview: The Desert Jewel

After consecutive weeks of racing on intermediate and large ovals, we move to a track of a completely different configuration.  This oval is anything but ordinary.  This week NASCAR's top racing series stops at one of the more unique tracks on the circuit, Phoenix Raceway.  

The track at Avondale, Ariz., is an irregular "D-shaped" oval with very flat banking in the corners of 9 to 11 degrees.  The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners.  This oval is completely different than Daytona, Las Vegas and Fontana.  Phoenix boasts the high speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the close confines of short track racing as well.  As we have witnessed in the last several years, it's often the driver who brings the fastest car to the Arizona desert that walks away with the trophy.  This race is typically marked by dominant performances, and very rarely by late momentum swings that catapult drivers into victory lane.  The driver who has led the most laps in the event has won the last three Phoenix races.  This is a trend that will likely continue this Sunday.

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for Phoenix Raceway.  This style of racing is a big departure from the standard ovals and Daytona that we've spent the first three weeks of the season competing on.  At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical numbers with some emphasis.  The recent loop statistics at Phoenix Raceway will be the most important data we will examine this week.  The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 15 years or 30 races at Phoenix Raceway.

With Kyle Busch's victory in this event one year ago, the Joe Gibbs Racing star racked up his third-career win at the Avondale oval.  He also put Toyota in victory lane at Phoenix Raceway for the second-straight time and third out of the previous four races at the Desert Jewel.  When the NASCAR Cup Series returned to Phoenix Raceway last November, it would be Denny Hamlin who would dominate and capture a third-straight victory for the manufacturer at the track just outside Phoenix.  It was his second-career Phoenix win, and first since the track's reconfiguration in recent years. 

If Toyota hopes to stay in victory lane here, their hopes will primarily ride with Busch and Hamlin.  The duo has five-combined Phoenix victories and have been the men to beat the last two seasons at the Desert Jewel.  If Ford hopes to retake the reins of Phoenix, their big hitter will be Kevin Harvick.  The Stewart Haas Racing star is a nine-time winner at Phoenix Raceway, and as recently as 2018.  He's dominated no other oval on the circuit as completely as Phoenix Raceway.  Ford's next-best suitor is likely Joey Logano.  He's a one-time Phoenix winner (2016), and he's started the season really well.  As for Chevrolet, their odds to win would seem pretty slim.  No driver from the bowtie camp has won at the Arizona oval since 2017 and Ryan Newman's shocking victory.  Easily the fastest Chevy drivers of this young season have been Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson.  Both have led laps and raced among the leaders in Phoenix races, but neither have broken through to win either.  We wouldn't rule out the possibility of a Chevy insurrection at Phoenix Raceway this weekend, however, it would seem very unlikely.  With this being the first "short track" race of the season, we're sure to be in for a number of surprises in the Fan Shield 500.  We'll highlight the teams mentioned above, and some others who will be vying for the win at Phoenix Raceway. 

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is looking to build on the momentum of his runner-up finish at Fontana last Sunday.  The No. 18 Toyota team isn't completely focused yet, but they're quickly moving in that direction.  Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix, and two of those victories have come in the last three starts.  In fact, he's been zeroed-in at this track the last two seasons.  Busch has led 491 laps combined collected two victories and two runner-up finishes in those last four starts at the Desert Jewel.  No one in the NASCAR Cup Series can boast numbers similar to that over the last two seasons at the Phoenix oval.  Busch has yet to look like a world-beater in his first three starts of the season, but this weekend that could very easily change.

Kevin Harvick – Phoenix Raceway is one of Harvick's top statistical ovals.  He's a nine-time winner at the facility, including this event two seasons ago.  He leads all drivers in the series in laps led at this oval during the last 15 seasons, so clearly Harvick possesses a gift at this one-mile short track.  The veteran driver's No. 4 team at Stewart Haas Racing has gotten off to a decent start this season with one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes thus far.  We'll see if Harvick can turn it up a notch this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has finished outside the Top-5 at this facility only twice in the last 13 starts.  The safe money is on Harvick in the Fan Shield 500.    

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been one of the best short track drivers in the series the last several seasons.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has two-career Phoenix victories to his credit.  The last came in his start here last November.  Hamlin cracks the Top 5 in 45-percent of his starts at Phoenix Raceway.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 800 laps for his career at Phoenix, and he's usually no worse than a Top-10 finisher.  Hamlin has had a great start to the season with the Daytona 500 victory and two Top-10 finishes in the first three races of 2020.  He comes to Phoenix Raceway looking to continue building on that momentum as we head into the short track portion of the spring schedule.  He should challenge for the win in Sunday's Fan Shield 500.

Ryan Blaney – This driver and team could be the bolt from the blue that spoils the top contenders this weekend at the Arizona short track.  Phoenix Raceway has been a bit of a mixed bag for the driver of the No. 12 Ford to this point in his career.  Blaney has two Top 5's and four Top 10's in eight starts at this facility.  That works out to a somewhat higher than we like 14.2 average finish.  However, if we really focus on what he accomplished last season at Phoenix Raceway, we see that Blaney captured one pole position, led 94 laps and claimed a pair of strong third-place finishes at Phoenix.  The young driver is quickly figuring this place out.  He's had great speed to open the season, just not the greatest luck.  This could be the Sunday where that all changes for Blaney. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex hasn't exactly started the season in race-winning form.  That's had more to do with bad luck and bad breaks than the speed of the No. 19 Toyota team.  He's still had the speed to race among the leaders in the last two weeks.  Phoenix Raceway hasn't been an oval of dominance for Truex, thus the solid plays list placement this week.  He has 11-career Top-10 finishes at this facility, but most have come in recent seasons.  Truex's start at the one-mile Arizona oval in this event one year ago netted a brilliant runner-up finish, which stands as his career-best effort at the facility.  This is much of the reason for our optimism for the Joe Gibbs Racing star this weekend.  He has Top-10 finishes in four of his last five starts at the Desert Jewel.  Truex is not the driver to beat this weekend, but he'll easily be a face inside the Top-10 and maybe the Top-5. 

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford has had a tougher go of things at Phoenix in more recent seasons as opposed to earlier in his career.  Thus we have moved him to the solid plays list this week, so as not to overvalue him.  Logano has 11 Top-10 finishes in 22 starts at the Desert Jewel, and that works out to a steady 50-percent rate.  He's led close to 400 laps at Phoenix, and 93 of those came in his start last November.  The Penske Racing star nabbed 10th- and ninth-place finishes last season at Phoenix Raceway, so this hasn't been his top short track on the circuit.  However, the No. 22 Ford team still displays the speed and skill to crack the Top 10 at this oval in more than the average number of starts.  Logano won't be the driver to beat in Sundays Fan Shield 500, but he'll likely be slugging it out somewhere inside the Top 10 when the checkered flag flies. 

Chase Elliott – It's been a tough start to the season for Elliott, but it turned much more positive with his Top-5 finish at Fontana this past week.  The young driver started last season slow as well, but quickly warmed up when the series visited Phoenix.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet should get a boost in value this week as we're racing on a smaller oval for the first time this season.  In eight-career starts at Phoenix Raceway, Elliott has accumulated 156 laps led, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes.  That 50-percent Top-10 rate will pass the fantasy racing bar in most instances.  The No. 9 Chevrolet team has shown incredible speed right out of the gate this season, and Elliott's 93 laps led to this point through three races stands as evidence.   He should be fast and good in Sunday's 312-lap battle in the Arizona desert. 

Kyle Larson – The short track "boost" will be well received by the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing team.  To this point in the season, they've treaded water with the faster Fords, but this race will give Larson a real shot at the checkered flag.  He carries a three-race Top-10 streak into Avondale, Arizona this weekend.  That streak boosts Larson's career totals to six Top-10 finishes in 12-career starts.  The 50-percent rate is a respectable mark and good indicator of potential.  Larson had a fast Chevrolet Camaro at Fontana this past weekend, but a run-in with Denny Hamlin would prevent him from collecting his third-straight Top 10 of the new season.  That speed should carry over to Phoenix and this Sunday's Fan Shield 500.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Jimmie Johnson – The Hendrick Motorsports star has incredible stats at the Phoenix oval.  Johnson is a four-time winner at Phoenix Raceway and that is second only to Kevin Harvick among the NASCAR Cup Series.  His stats at this oval have lagged the last couple seasons, although he did post a steady eighth-place finish in this event one year ago.  Johnson seems re-energized to start the 2020 campaign.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has shaken off poor performance and grabbed fifth- and seventh-place finishes the last two weeks at Las Vegas and Fontana.  That's a very good indicator heading into Sunday's Fan Shield 500.  Johnson sports a staggering 64-percent Top-10 rate at the Phoenix oval, and that's a comforting statistic ahead of this weekend's race. 

Brad Keselowski – The veteran driver has seventh- and fifth-place finishes the last two races, and is gathering some momentum heading to the Desert Jewel.  The Penske Racing star is heating up as we return to the oval just outside Phoenix.  Keselowski will be making his 22nd-career start at this flat Arizona track this weekend.  While his career numbers are lacking a win, Keselowski's recent stats at this oval have been gradually improving.  With 10-career Top-10 finishes the driver of the No. 2 Ford Mustang checks in at a pedestrian 48-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix Raceway.  His start here last November netted just 3 laps led and a steady 10th-place finish.  Keselowski won't be one of the big hitters this Sunday, but he'll be a face among the Top 10 by the checkered flag.   

Aric Almirola – This veteran driver is fresh off his best performance of the season with his eighth-place effort at Auto Club Speedway last Sunday.  Now Almirola will ride that momentum into Phoenix Raceway this weekend.  Almirola has just five-career Top-10 finishes at this small oval, but the really good news is that four of those have come in the last three seasons at the desert short track.  He finished fourth here in this event one year ago, and that's his career-best mark at Phoenix Raceway.  Almirola's average finish at this facility over his last five starts is a miniscule 9.2.  We're very optimistic that this good trend line will continue for the Stewart Haas Racing veteran.  A Top-10 finish in Sunday's Fan Shield 500 is nearly a guarantee. 

Kurt Busch – Busch has been one of the more consistent finishers in the NASCAR Cup Series at the Phoenix oval over the years.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is a one-time winner at Phoenix Raceway, and he cracks the Top 10 at a strong 56-percent rate.  That percentage has actually been elevated the past few seasons as Busch has been visiting the Top 10 here better than his career rate.  He finished seventh-place in this event one year ago, and led 4 laps at Phoenix in the fall, but finished just outside the Top 10 in 11th-place.  Busch is looking to build on the momentum of his brilliant third-place performance at Auto Club Speedway last Sunday.  Busch is a rock-solid fantasy start at the one-mile Arizona oval this week.

Erik Jones – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster shook off a slow start to the 2020 campaign with a respectable 10th-place finish at Fontana this past week.  That effort for Jones reserved a slow start in the first two races of the season.  The young driver has seven-career starts at the flat oval outside Phoenix, and he's only gotten better with each start.  Jones has accumulated four Top-10 and six Top-20 finishes in those efforts.  His start at the Phoenix short track last November saw the No. 20 Toyota start ninth on the grid and finish seventh-place in the Bluegreen Vacations 500.  Now with seven starts at this facility under his belt, Jones' 13.3 average finish and 57-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix Raceway really stands out.          

Matt DiBenedetto – The new Wood Brothers Racing driver is looking right at home in the No. 21 Ford after just three races.  DiBenedetto has claimed 19th-, second- and 13th-place finishes at Daytona, Las Vegas and Auto Club Speedway.  The average finish checks in at an eye-opening 11.3.  The journeyman driver has never been a world-beater at Phoenix Raceway.  In 10-career starts he's mustered only two Top-20 finishes and a 25.1 average finish.  However, it will be different this time.  DiBenedetto is riding major momentum into Sunday's Fan Shield 500.  He's also coming off a career-best performance at Phoenix Raceway last November.  DiBenedetto grabbed a steady 13th-place finish in the Bluegreen Vacations 500.  He could be poised for another career-best Phoenix mark this Sunday afternoon.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Alex Bowman – It's a bit shocking to see last week's Fontana winner in the slow down list this week, but that's the case for the Fan Shield 500.  The No. 88 team turned in a flawless performance last weekend at the two-mile California oval to capture Bowman's second-career victory.  We believe he'll be a very trendy pick in weekly lineup leagues this week.  However, we urge caution in considering the Hendrick Motorsports youngster.  Bowman's career-story at Phoenix is one of many struggles.  He did once win the pole and lead 194 laps here in 2016, but that performance is the outlier.  Bowman's eight other Phoenix starts have only netted one Top-20 finish.  He was a 35th- and 23rd-place finisher here in the two races of last season.  It's best to layoff Bowman this weekend and monitor closely this weekend to see near-term potential. 

Christopher Bell – We can't imagine a worse start to the season for this rookie driver and small race team.  Bell crashed out of the Daytona 500.  He was a distant 33rd-place in Las Vegas, and the young driver finished 38th at Fontana after an engine failure took him out early in the event this past week.  Confidence is one thing this driver needs right now, and it will be hard to find on this tough short track.  This weekend will be Bell's first Cup Series start at the Desert Jewel.  He has had some sporadic success at this facility in his Xfinity Series career with one win and three Top-5 finishes (11.0 average finish) across five starts.  However, that will be hard to translate into the Cup Series cars and the heated racing that takes place at this oval.  It's best to stay clear of Bell until he and this race team can get some things sorted out.    

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – While Stenhouse has had surprising speed through the first three races of the season, we have to push back from him this weekend.  The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has had many struggles over the years at Phoenix Raceway.  The small oval outside Phoenix has only yielded two Top 10's to Stenhouse in 14-career starts (14-percent) and his average finish checks in around an elevated 19.7.  Aside from his Phoenix resume, the No. 47 team was busted for some illegal body modifications last weekend at Auto Club Speedway.  The resulting loss of starting spot saw him slug it out all afternoon in the back of the pack to finish a distant 20th-place in the Auto Club 400.  This team is battling some issues right now, and are far from a safe fantasy racing play for the time being.   

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer's luck at this facility has been very poor over the years.  He's looked great here at times, and that includes the veteran driver's 11th- and eighth-place Phoenix efforts in 2019.  But the big picture shows that Bowyer has just two Top 10's in his last six Phoenix starts.  The average finish across that span checks in at 14.3 for the Stewart Haas Racing veteran.  When we contrast that with his career-long numbers at Phoenix the picture becomes very clear.  In 29 starts Bowyer has just eight Top 10's at this flat oval.  That works out to a lower-than-average 28-percent.  While the driver of the No. 14 Ford Mustang has been improved in recent Phoenix starts, this is still a questionable fantasy racing start for this driver and team.