Enjoy Illinois 300 Preview: The Summer Schedule Begins

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series visits World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Illinois for the second time since its inaugural event last season. This oval is a moderately-banked 1.25-mile track that is asphalt paved and features 11 degree banking in turns 1 & 2 and 9 degree banking in turns 3 & 4. The track has hosted Xfinity Series, Craftsman Truck Series and the lower divisions of NASCAR for many years, but NASCAR's top division just began racing at this oval last season. That will leave us short on a lot of data and statistics, but we'll lean heavily on last year's race and current performance on intermediate ovals to do some forecasting for the Enjoy Illinois 300.  

The event is 240 laps, divided into three stages of 45 laps, 95 laps and 100 laps. Based on what we saw last season, average speeds are likely to be around 135 mph as the asphalt surface provides decent grip and a lot of potential for side-by-side racing. The oval is somewhat reminiscent of the lower banked intermediate ovals on the circuit like Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, although modestly smaller in size than most NASCAR intermediate ovals. From its opening in 1997 World Wide Technology Raceway hosted Xfinity Series races until 2010 and Craftsman Truck Series events until the present day. The facility had never hosted a Cup Series event in its history until one year ago. Due to a lack of historical data, there will be some unknowns as we venture this weekend to World Wide Technology Raceway. 

Since this is a second-season event and at a completely new track, we have very little in the way of historical loop stats to examine this weekend. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely without some numbers. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the intermediate ovals. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks. The data will be fresh and recent statistics and should provide us with a good preview of who will hit the ground running at WWTR this Sunday. In the table below are the driver's standard stats at Las Vegas, Atlanta, Kansas and Charlotte in the 2023 season, sorted by average finish.

Last season, NASCAR made a little history by racing their top touring division at the Madison, Illinois oval for the first time ever. For much of the previous decade, this track has been mostly home to the Craftsman Truck Series and the ARCA Menards Series. That changed when the Cup Series took the green flag here June 5 of last year. Joey Logano would take advantage of an overtime restart/finish to out-duel Kyle Busch and capture the win in the inaugural Enjoy Illinois 300. The Penske Racing star would lead just 22 laps that day, but would peak at the right time and take advantage of the opportunity to secure the win. Given Ford's collective struggles this season, it will be a tough task to defend this win, but Logano will certainly give it his best Sunday afternoon.     

In addition to Logano and Busch, Martin Truex Jr. was also strong that June afternoon last year. The Joe Gibbs Racing star led 42 laps and would wind up sixth-place after the dust of overtime settled. With Ford and Toyota drivers capturing the Top 6 spots that afternoon, Chevrolet was completely locked out of relevancy in this race. A lot has changed in a year. Hendrick Motorsports drivers seem to be the outfits to beat on a weekly basis, so we'll see if Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott have something to say about who the next WWTR victor will be this Sunday. We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Enjoy Illinois 300 in Madison, Illinois.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron - The young driver's success this season in mid-sized oval events has been well-documented. Byron has captured one win (Las Vegas) and three of Top-5 finishes, along with 277 laps led. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster was among the mad scramble at the front of this past week's Coca-Cola 600 that led to 91 laps led and a brilliant runner-up finish at Charlotte. Byron was indistinguishable from the rest of the field in this event one year ago at WWTR. However, we believe the speed the No. 24 Chevrolet team has displayed this season on these similar sized tracks gives Byron a huge advantage this weekend. We believe he has a better than 50-percent chance at a Top-5 effort with the potential lurking for another victory.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney came to life in a thunderous way at Charlotte this past weekend. Although the race was rain delayed to Monday, it wouldn't delay Blaney's appointment with victory lane for the first time in a long time. He'd lead a race-high 163 laps and have the full field in hot pursuit at Charlotte. Blaney now rides that momentum into a similar-sized World Wide Technology Raceway. WWTR is a bit smaller and a bit lesser banked, but the set up and handling are a similar affair. Now that the No. 12 Ford team have broken the ice and gotten on a roll, Blaney will be a threat to win these cookie cutter ovals. In this event one year ago, this driver and team qualified a strong fifth on the grid, led 12 laps and finished fourth-place in the Enjoy Illinois 300. Blaney will be in the hunt for the win in this return to Madison.  

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star was rolled up in a late accident at Charlotte this past week. Larson will look to solidly rebound this Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway. For the season, Larson has nabbed two runner-up finishes (Las Vegas and Kansas) and has 149 laps led on the intermediate ovals through four events. That would indicate that Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team should be on-point for this Cup Series event at World Wide Technology Raceway. Larson was a pedestrian 12th-place in this event one year ago, but we have much higher expectations for the No. 5 team this Sunday. WWTR's similarities to Kansas and Las Vegas indicate very high potential for Larson in the Enjoy Illinois 300. 

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star finished a strong third-place in this past weekend's Coca-Cola 600. That performance gives him one win, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the last four races. Truex will now set his sights on the oval at World Wide Technology Raceway. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has two Xfinity Series starts at WWTR in the distant past, but they netted two poles, one win and one subpar finish. However, those two events led to 157 laps led. Truex's Cup debut in this event one year ago netted 42 laps led and a strong sixth-place finish at World Wide Technology Raceway. The veteran driver will make good use of those notes Sunday in Madison, Illinois.   

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – With his sixth-place finish at Charlotte this past weekend, Busch is now getting attention on the intermediate ovals that he's been missing most of 2023. The Richard Childress Racing star hasn't been fast enough and good enough to win on these mid-sized ovals of late, but that could be changing. In this event one year ago, Busch led his former Joe Gibbs Racing team to 66 laps led and a brilliant runner-up finish at World Wide Technology Raceway. That experience dovetails nicely with his past Xfinity Series experience at the Midwest oval (one win, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes). While Busch is with a new race team this season, he shouldn't have easily forgotten how to navigate this 1.25-mile oval.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick's recent surge (three Top 10's in the last four events) was capped by his strong fifth-place finish this past weekend in the Coca-Cola 600. 23XI Racing is surging right now and Reddick is one of two of their hot hands. The young driver has been excellent on intermediate ovals this season with two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the four events, 54 laps led and a razor sharp 8.5 average finish. Reddick has been piloting the No. 45 Toyota well in these races. The young driver was Top 15 in this event one year ago with his old race team at Richard Childress Racing. However, we believe given his current level of performance he'll have a much higher ceiling this time around in Madison.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has also been a hot hand for 23XI Racing of late, and one worth riding into the summer portion of the schedule. He has a trio of fourth-place finishes at Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. Wallace hasn't been a big lap leader in these events, but he holds the Top 10 and finishes there with his strong 9.8 average finish in these intermediate oval events. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota had a forgettable performance in this event one year ago, but this is a different driver and team right now. Wallace is qualifying and finishing well over the last month. He's climbed from 21st-place to his current 15th-place in the driver points over the four-race span. 

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin was the victim of a dust up between he and Chase Elliott at Charlotte this past week. Both drivers would tangle and both would wreck, prematurely ending their day. Until that misfortune, Hamlin had been on a pretty good string that included a win at Kansas and Top 5 at Dover. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will hit the reset button this Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway. Outside of his Charlotte misfortune, Hamlin has been a strong performer this season on the mid-sized ovals. Finishes of 11th-, sixth- and first-place have been his body of work at Las Vegas, Atlanta and Kansas. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota will be dangerous in the Enjoy Illinois 300 and provide a solid spoiler threat for the win.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of intermediate oval racing & solid upside

Joey Logano – Logano has experienced a real mixed bag for a season to this point. With one victory and six Top-10 finishes, there's plenty of positives to review. However, the No. 22 Ford team has not been quite up to norm on cookie cutter tracks. Logano won at Atlanta earlier this season and posted a strong sixth-place at Kansas, but also disappointed with finishes of 36th- and 21st-place at Las Vegas and recently at Charlotte. This is the primary reason we've moved Logano to the sleepers list this week.  He presents high upside value, but also comes with a lot of risk due to a lack of consistency. Logano and the No. 22 Ford team won this inaugural event at WWTR a year ago, so that makes them worthy of close consideration. However, the performance of this driver and team now vs. then is a different ballgame.

Christopher Bell – Bell led 48 laps this past weekend in the Coca-Cola 600, but faded to a subpar 24th-place finish by evening's end in Charlotte. He'll look to rebound in Madison, Illinois this Sunday as the NASCAR Cup Series returns to World Wide Technology Raceway. Bell qualified well (third) and finished a strong ninth-place in this event one year ago. The young driver will lean on that experience in the Enjoy Illinois 300.  Bell has been an uneven performer on the mid-sized ovals this season with Top 5's at Las Vegas and Atlanta, but also finishes outside the Top 20 recently at Kansas and Charlotte. The No. 20 Toyota team present good value in most fantasy racing formats, but come with a bit of an inconsistency tag that makes them a sleepers list risk.

Alex Bowman – Bowman made a return from a recent back injury this past week at Charlotte and earned a hard-fought 12th-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. That wasn't half bad considering the type of injury and nearly month-long layoff. Bowman's three starts on intermediate ovals this season have netted one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes for a good 9.7 average finish. He's not a world beater nor top contender on these style tracks in 2023, but he's good enough to warrant sleeper list consideration. Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team were Top 15 in this event one year ago at World Wide Technology Raceway, and they'll likely be Top 15 again this Sunday.      

Kevin Harvick – Harvick's 11th-place finish this past weekend at Charlotte gives the veteran driver one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes this year on the 1.5-mile ovals. The one poor finish was a crash and DNF at Atlanta back in the spring. These are not mind-blowing numbers, but rather steady performance and relative consistency. Harvick is simply not the ace and top tier driver that he used to be a couple seasons ago. However, he's a steady hand with a lot of knowledge of the various tracks on the circuit. With over 800 Cup Series starts to his credit and 60 total victories, Harvick is reaching legendary status, but coming to the close of his career. He'll challenge the Top 10 at World Wide Technology Raceway.

Chris Buescher – The driver of the No. 17 Ford is on quite a roll right now. Buescher has four Top-10 finishes in the last five events and has climbed from 16th- to 12th-place in the driver standings over the span. His most recent accomplishment was an impressive eighth-place finish in this past weekend's Coca-Cola 600. That's Buescher's best intermediate oval performance of the season to this point, however, he did earn a reasonable 17th-place finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks earlier. The veteran driver rides all this momentum into Gateway this week and the Enjoy Illinois 300. Buescher didn't compete in this event one year ago due to be sidelined with COVID-19. However, his fill-in driver, Zane Smith, raced the No. 17 Ford to a steady 17th-place finish. We believe Buescher will top that Sunday in Madison.

Corey Lajoie – LaJoie gets the call this week in the wake of the Chase Elliott one-race suspension. The veteran driver will pilot the No. 9 Chevrolet of Hendrick Motorsports, which is a far cry from the car he normally competes in with Spire Motorsports. Still, LaJoie has maintained reasonable levels of performance with his small team on these cookie cutter ovals this season. With one Top-5 and four Top-20 finishes on similar sized ovals, LaJoie sports a decent 15.3 average finish coming to WWTR this Sunday. Considering that he'll be driving a car capable of winning races and posting Top-10 finishes, it should be a real boost to his fantasy value this week.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – Melon Man hasn't been quite as sharp this season on the intermediate ovals as he was in 2022. Chastain has just one Top-10 finish so far in the four events to-date, and that came at Kansas (fifth-place). He's coming off a disappointing 22nd-place finish this past weekend at Charlotte and is currently saddled in a two-race Top-10 drought. The lack of consistency for this driver and team the last two months is a bit troubling heading into Gateway. Considering that Chastain finished a strong eighth-place in this event one year ago, that's disappointing. We still considering him a high-risk driver for Sunday's 300-mile battle at World Wide Technology Raceway. 

Chase Elliott – Elliott got into a dust up with Denny Hamlin at Charlotte this past weekend. It would result in Hamlin riding Elliott into the wall and the Hendrick Motorsports star immediately retaliating by right hooking Hamlin into the outside wall. NASCAR came down with a one-race suspension on Tuesday, so Elliott will sit out this weekend at World Wide Technology Raceway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet had slowly been building some momentum since his return from an early-season leg injury and was just beginning to make some headway. It's an unfortunate development considering Elliott's odds of making the Top 10 at Gateway were pretty good. Instead, he'll sit at home and watch Corey LaJoie race his Chevrolet in the Enjoy Illinois 300.    

Chase Briscoe –  Although he labored to a season-best finish on an intermediate oval this past week at Charlotte, it was just a 20th-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. The struggles continue for Briscoe and the No. 14 team. His 26.0 average finish on the mid-sized ovals this season is a troubling statistic heading to Gateway this weekend. In this event one year ago he started on pole position, but found a way to fade to a 24th-place finish in the inaugural race at World Wide Technology Raceway. The current struggles of this team coupled with his performance in this race one year ago lead us to recommend passing up Briscoe and the No. 14 Ford team in weekly lineup and salary cap games this Sunday.   

Michael McDowell – The 28th-place finish this past week at Charlotte is just another bump in a very bumpy road for McDowell and the No. 34 Ford team this season. The veteran driver has struggled on the intermediate tracks and has no finishes inside the Top 20 this season. The 25.0 average finish in the four races tells the story of struggles for this driver and team. In this event one year ago, McDowell found a way to lead 34 laps early in the race, however, he'd eventually fade to a subpar 18th-place finish by the conclusion of last year's Enjoy Illinois 300. The driver of the No. 34 Ford is mired in a terrible slump and hasn't visited the Top 10 in the last seven races. He's still searching for answers coming into Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300.