This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Quaker State 400
Location: Sparta, Ky.
Course: Kentucky Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile oval
Laps: 267
Race Preview
The two most successful Sprint Cup drivers at Kentucky Speedway are the pair who battled for the win last week in Daytona. Brad Keselowski got the win with perfect use of teamwork with Joey Logano to stay ahead in each restart. Each driver must now focus on the next 1.5-mile oval, where they each have two wins from five races. The harsh circuit in the Bluegrass State makes just one appearance each year on the Sprint Cup calendar, and this year's track may produce an entirely different race than in the past. Still, the two winningest drivers in 2016 and, in Kentucky, will likely be the two to pay the most attention to ahead of Saturday's Quaker State 400.
Key Stats at Kentucky Speedway
• Number of previous races: 5
• Winners from pole: 2
• Winners from top-5 starters: 2
• Winners from top-10 starters: 4
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
• Fastest race: 145.607 mph
Last Five Kentucky Winners
2015 - Kyle Busch
2014 - Brad Keselowski
2013 - Matt Kenseth
2012 - Brad Keselowski
2011 - Kyle Busch
Much has changed at Kentucky Speedway since the Sprint Cup last visited. The track used to have the oldest surface and flattest turns among 1.5-mile ovals on the calendar. That changed this winter when the oval was repaved and reconfigured. Turns one and two now feature increased banking that makes them distinctly different corners than turns three and four. The track was narrowed, and the characteristic bumps have been smoothed. While tire wear was always one of the biggest factors at the speedway, the new surface is bound to be a bit easier on drivers and teams. Track officials have done everything in their power to retain the qualities of the old pavement, but we will only know how successful those efforts were once the cars hit the track. Track position will likely be a major factor again, but a less abrasive surface could open the door to additional tire strategies. The circuit changes could be a major wild card thrown at teams, but Keselowski and Busch are likely to be at the forefront again as they each battle for a third win at the track.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Busch - $10,200
Joey Logano - $10,100
Jimmie Johnson - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $9,800
Carl Edwards - $9,600
Kurt Busch - $9,400
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Matt Kenseth - $8,700
Denny Hamlin - $8,500
Kyle Larson - $8,300
Austin Dillon - $7,900
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Trevor Bayne - $6,900
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,800
Greg Biffle - $6,600
Aric Almirola - $6,500
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $10,200
Jimmie Johnson - $10,000
Brad Keselowski - $9,800
Matt Kenseth - $8,700
David Ragan - $5,600
Michael Annett - $4,900
Pricing bargains on Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth allow the lower-risk lineup to have some of the most successful drivers at Kentucky in the same roster. Kyle Busch and Keselowski have two wins each in Sprint Cup's five visits to the track, and were the two protagonists fighting for last week's win as well. The only other Sprint Cup winner at the circuit, Matt Kenseth, is also in this lineup. The biggest questions will surround Jimmie Johnson and our other two selections. Johnson hasn't finished in the top 10 since Charlotte, but he hasn't finished worse than 10th in any of his starts at this week's circuit. This could be the perfect week for him to stop his downward momentum. Ragan's only Kentucky top-10 came in his first try in 2011. He also has yet to land a top-10 in 2016 but has a consistent habit of finishing higher than he qualifies in most races. Annett only has two career starts at Kentucky, but picked up a top-20 last week and has only failed to finish better than his qualifying position once in the last five races.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Joey Logano - $10,100
Carl Edwards - $9,600
Denny Hamlin - $8,500
Kyle Larson - $8,300
Trevor Bayne - $6,900
Aric Almirola - $6,500
The higher-risk lineup option leads with Logano, who pushed teammate Keselowski to last week's victory. He has three straight top-10 Kentucky finishes heading into this weekend, too. Edwards scored a fifth-place finish in his first Kentucky visit and then nabbed a fourth-place finish with Joe Gibbs Racing last season. Prior to Daytona he was also on a run of three consecutive top-10s. Excluding the two crashes in 2013 and 2014 that impact Hamlin's Kentucky average finish, his worst result would be 11th in 2011. He has started inside the top 10 every time since then and finished third twice, including last season. Another hit-or-miss driver at Kentucky is Larson. He started from pole last year before trouble, and started sixth in 2014 before crashing. He obviously has the pace to contend for a win here but simply needs to finish to realize his potential. Bayne's only appearance at the track last season earned him a 15-position finish differential with a 13th-place result, and he has been racing quite well recently and is on the cusp of a spot in the Chase. Finally, Almirola is a reliable top-15 driver nearly every week, and Kentucky should be no exception.
