NASCAR DFS: CampingWorld.com 500 Picks

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Updated on October 21, 2015 7:24PM EST

CAMPINGWORKLD.COM 500

Location: Talladega, Ala.
Course: Talladega Superspeedway
Format: 2.66-mile tri-oval
Laps: 188

Race Preview

The final race of NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup Contender round this week is held at the foreboding Talladega Superspeedway. Racing at Talladega can be treacherous and unpredictable, which should create plenty of storylines this week. The high speeds and high banking of Talladega, coupled with restrictor plates, bunch the field up and make drafting the most critical attribute. Drivers will rarely get out of the gas, and the biggest unknown is the propensity to get caught up in the mistakes and troubles of others. Teams will focus on making their car as fast as possible in the draft, and hopefully fast enough to stay out front throughout Sunday's distance.

Key Stats at Talladega Superspeedway

• Races: 92
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 53
• Winners from top-10 starters: 65
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 8
• Fastest race: 188.354 mph

Last 10 Talladega Winners

2015 spring - Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2014 fall - Brad Keselowski
2014 spring - Denny Hamlin
2013 fall - Jamie McMurray
2013 spring - David Ragan
2012 fall - Matt Kenseth
2012 spring - Brad Keselowski
2011 fall - Clint Bowyer
2011 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2010 fall - Clint Bowyer

Joey Logano will be the only driver not worried about the impact of Talladega on his chances of continuing his championship fight. He won both races of the Contender round, and is the only driver currently locked into the Eliminator round. Most other Chase competitors will be nervous since nothing will be assured until the race is completed. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been the king of the superspeedways recently, and he won at the track in the spring. The flat-out racing style at this track could allow other teams who have struggled to move forward in the race, and all will be trying to avoid the crashes that have become characteristic of restrictor-plate racing.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $11,200
Jimmie Johnson - $10,100
Matt Kenseth - $9,900
Kevin Harvick - $9,700

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Brad Keselowski - $9,200
Joey Logano - $9,100
Denny Hamlin - $9,000
Kurt Busch - $8,700

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Martin Truex Jr. - $8,400
Jamie McMurray - $8,100
Paul Menard - $7,900
Aric Almirola - $7,500

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Danica Patrick - $6,200
Ryan Blaney - $5,800
David Gilliland - $5,700

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $11,200
Jimmie Johnson - $10,100
Matt Kenseth - $9,900
Tony Stewart - $6,900
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,000
Ryan Blaney - $5,800

Earnhardt is the driver almost every lineup will select this week for obvious reasons. His teammate Johnson appears to be working his way out of a slump and has the third highest driver rating at Talladega. Kenseth is in a must-win situation this week, and is a top driver in the draft despite his results on those tracks this season. The importance of the draft this week could give Tony Stewart a more level playing field to get a rare top finish, while Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has proven his worth on these tracks as well. Ryan Blaney is a young long-shot this week that has an average finish of 13th from his two attempts at Talladega.

Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Kevin Harvick - $9,700
Martin Truex Jr. - $8,400
Jamie McMurray - $8,100
Paul Menard - $7,900
Clint Bowyer - $7,600
Greg Biffle - $7,300

The high-risk lineup does not have Earnhardt, and banks on a few long-shots having good luck. Harvick has three top-10s in his last three Talladega outings, while Truex finished fifth there earlier this season. Jamie McMurray is a two-time Talladega winner, and Paul Menard has three top-10s in his last four races at the circuit. The draft should help Biffle be more competitive, and Clint Bowyer looks like a bargain with two top-5 finishes in his last three races at the track. Talladega is a perfect chance to take bargain drivers that have underperformed, but are capable of springing a surprise.

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