Daytona 500 Preview: The Great American Race

We're set to kick off another season of NASCAR racing, and to get things started we head to the historic Daytona International Speedway for the season opener. The Daytona 500, also known as the Great American Race, kicks off each NASCAR Cup Series season and is by far the most prestigious event in the sport. The Daytona 500 is on par with the NFL's Super Bowl or Major League Baseball's World Series. It's unique in the fact that it opens the racing season rather than ends it. No other major sport can make that same claim. All eyes in the motorsports world will be focused on Daytona this weekend, because the winner of this race is not only making history, but he's also setting the pace for the season to come. 

If there's one thing that we can count on with Speedweeks at Daytona, it's a lot of practice laps. With all the practice sessions and qualifying races, the drivers really get to know what they can and can't do with their cars over the week of events. Once the drivers get familiar with the aero package and handling of their new Next-Gen cars, we should see lots of three-wide, big pack racing in this season's Daytona 500. When we get down to the final 10 laps and crunch time, it will be interesting to see how the drivers mix it up looking for that perfect drafting partner. Pushing and bump drafting are out of the question, so we'll see some precariously close drafting, side-drafting and quickly shifting lanes of racing as drivers look for any open pavement they can find to get to the front. We'll see the pack racing, and unsettled cars that rattles nerves for 475 miles, and then a 25-mile wild sprint to the finish which will have the top contenders climbing over one-another to get to the checkered flag first. As we saw in last season's Daytona 500 with Michael McDowell and the Penske Racing drivers, it can make for some pretty big fireworks coming to the checkered flag on that last lap. 

This will be our first race since the teams loaded up at Phoenix last November, and crowned Kyle Larson the NASCAR Cup Series champion for the first time. While super speedway racing isn't by itself completely indicative of what we can expect for the entire season, it does give us a good preview of who has the horsepower, handling and teamwork flowing right out of the gate. We expect most of the teams that ended the 2021 season on a high note to continue their momentum with the short off-season and right into the Daytona 500. The teams of Hendrick Motorsports would be a good example of this point. Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowman put together good streaks of consistency as the season closed last November. Those four drivers combined for five victories, nine Top-5 and 12 Top-10 finishes over the last six races of last season. Not to be outdone, the quartet of Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr.), grabbed nine Top-5 and 16 Top-10 finishes over those final six events. We expect those teams to come running out of the blocks this February. In the opposite sense, some of the teams that struggled through the Chase for the Cup last fall have a lot to prove during Speedweeks. Drivers like Cole Custer, Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe had better hit the ground running at Daytona, or their season-ending slumps are likely to continue well into 2022.

Before we dive into the driver picks, let's take a minute to look at the loop statistics for Daytona International Speedway. The loop stats are the numbers from NASCAR's electronic timing and scoring from past races. They can track virtually any statistic possible in auto racing. For the purpose of our examination we've chosen to look at average finish, quality passes, fastest laps, laps led, laps inside the Top 15 and the driver rating derived from those. These stats are pretty indicative of the best performing drivers at a particular oval. From these and other numbers NASCAR derives the driver rating. From an overall performance standpoint, it's a great measure of track specific performance. Here are the loop stats for the last 34 races at Daytona International Speedway.

In this race one year ago we crowned a first-time Daytona 500 winner, Michael McDowell. There were an exciting 22 lead changes among 12 different drivers. Those figures are pretty much the norm when compared to the previous three Daytona 500's. The whopping seven caution periods due to crashes or debris played a bit of a role in keeping the lead change totals down. When the dust settled we saw McDowell hold off Chase Elliott by the narrowest of margins as the front of the field was engulfed in a major accident on the last lap. The Penske Racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano would get tangled up on the backstretch and set off an eight-car accident coming to the checkered flag. The field would be frozen as the caution flag was displayed, and McDowell would be declared the winner.

For the driver of the No. 34 FRM Ford, it would be his first-career victory and a big one at that. It capped one of the most thrilling races of the entire season. How can we top that in 2022?  Considering that NASCAR returned to Daytona last August and held a race that was 35 laps shorter, but had an astounding 45 total lead changes, we could be poised for major thrills.  It might be difficult to replicate that dramatic finish from last season's Daytona 500, but the entertainment factor should be off the charts. As the above electronic scoring statistics show, we have a handful of drivers from many different stables that have a nose for the front at the Daytona oval. We'll outline the usual suspects at this oval as well as a few drivers who may surprise on Sunday and give you the edge that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues for the season-opening Daytona 500.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Although he was held out of victory lane last season on the superspeedway tracks, Hamlin is still the man to beat in these big oval races. The three-time Daytona 500 champion knows what it takes to win, and knows how to race in the draft in these high-stakes events. The Joe Gibbs Racing star didn't snag any Daytona or Talladega wins last season, but he was often setting the pace in his No. 11 Toyota. Hamlin led over 150 laps combined between these two ovals in 2021. In just the last 10 superspeedway events alone, he's combined for two victories, six Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes. Those stats set Hamlin apart from the rest of the field. No one else is cracking the Top-5 at a 60-percent rate in these high-risk, high-stakes races. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been an incredibly successful and consistent performer on the Daytona and Talladega ovals in recent seasons. He has three wins and one runner-up finish in his last 10 superspeedway starts. The last of those was Blaney's big Daytona victory last August in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. He would hold off a pack of mad hornets on the final lap as they crashed behind him coming to the checkered flag. Blaney has never won the Daytona 500, but he's finished runner-up twice (2017 and 2020), so he knows what it takes to be in contention right up until the end. Could this be the year that the Penske Racing star finally gets his name engraved on the Harley J. Earl Trophy?  It very likely could be given how strong Blaney has been in these superspeedway races.    

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star will me making his seventh start in the Great American Race. Elliott has yet to win at Daytona, but he's been painfully close to breaking through in recent visits to the historic Florida oval. Two of his last three starts at Daytona International Speedway have netted runner-up finishes and all three were Top-10 efforts. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet finished runner-up in last season's Daytona 500, and he led a whopping 36 laps at DIS last August before finishing eighth-place in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Elliott owns one-career victory at the similar oval in Talladega and he's cashed-in on five Top 10's in his last 10-combined Daytona/Talladega starts. The new Next-Gen car will be a bit of a wrinkle, but it's clear that Elliott understands the nuances of superspeedway racing.  

Joey Logano – Logano is the 2015 Daytona 500 champion and he's a four-time victor between the ovals of Talladega and Daytona. The Penske Racing star has had it tough the last couple seasons on the big tracks, but note that Logano is the lap leader over the last 10 superspeedway events with 258 laps led. Luck in finishing these races has not been on his side of late, but the speed to win is still there with the No. 22 Ford team. Logano gave us a good last look on the big tracks with his October start at Talladega last Fall. He led 9 laps and finished a brilliant third-place in the YellaWood 500. That Top-5 finish broke a long dry spell for Logano on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega. As the winner of the Clash at the Coliseum, the driver of the No. 22 Ford comes to Florida this week with some confidence and momentum.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – The two-time Daytona winner hasn't been a major threat to win these superspeedway races in recent seasons, but Harvick displayed incredibly consistency last year in these outings. He grabbed two Top-5, three Top-10 finishes and led 49-combined laps in the four Daytona/Talladega races. It was a whole lot of racing at the front and not playing follow-the-leader. In recent Daytona 500 events, Harvick has collected a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last two. There's something about the prestigious season-opener that enables Harvick to step up his game. Now with 41-career Cup Series starts at Daytona International Speedway, Harvick's 16-career Top 10's checks in at a reasonable 39-percent rate. That's pretty good for this risky form of NASCAR racing.         

William Byron – With just eight-career Daytona starts, Byron is still learning the ropes to a certain degree in this superspeedway game. Still, his accomplishments to this point can't be overlooked. The 24-year-old talent has one victory and one runner-up finish in his prior Daytona experience. The wrecks have come a bit too much (4 DNF's) but his 92-combined laps led at this oval shows that Byron often races out front here. Those two extremes seem to be his greatest strength and weakness is this style of racing. At some point that is going to change, and it could be this season. Now entering year five of his NASCAR Cup Series career, Byron is going to learn the patience to succeed at this form of racing. The DNF's are going to subside and the Top 5's and 10's are going to start piling up.       

Kyle Larson – The defending champion has far better tracks than Daytona in his resume. Intermediate ovals, short tracks and even road courses are better facilities to maximize Larson's potential. Still, the Hendrick Motorsports star still pulls a "solid plays" rating for any Daytona 500 matchup. In his debut with the No. 5 Chevrolet team last season, Larson peddled the team's car to a respectable 10th-place finish in the 2021 Great American Race. He now has three Top 10's in his last five Daytona starts. That has bolstered Larson's Top-10 rate at Daytona International Speedway to a more respectable 33-percent rate. It seems that the move to Hendrick has only helped this skilled driver to improve at this form of racing. Still, not a big threat to win the Daytona 500, but fantasy racing players would be unwise to completely overlook Larson and the No. 5 team.        

Bubba Wallace – As the old saying goes "the proof is in the pudding", that would be the case for Wallace in superspeedway racing. With just nine-career Cup starts at Daytona, the 23XI driver is now a two-time runner-up finisher at Daytona International Speedway. His most recent outing at the historic oval netted 8 laps led and the second-place finish in last August's Coke Zero Sugar 400. In addition to his Daytona success, Wallace pulled off a big upset victory in last October's YellaWood 500 at the similar oval in Talladega. He muscled his way past Kurt Busch to take the lead late in that event and would eventually be crowned the race winner after a rain-shortened day. With Top-5 finishes in three of his last six superspeedway races, it seems that this style of racing is Wallace's strength. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is the winningest active driver on superspeedways with seven combined victories between Daytona and Talladega. However, most of that hardware has been captured at Talladega and not Daytona. Still, the Roush Fenway Keselowski star is a worthy sleeper play at the big oval in Florida. The driver of the No. 6 Ford has led 230-career laps at the track and he's captured one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in his last three Daytona starts. The crash bugaboo has always been a thing with Keselowski at Daytona. But maybe his fresh start with a new race team will undo that curse. One thing is for certain, Keselowski understands this form of racing perhaps better than anyone else in the NASCAR Cup Series. That knowledge is power and potential for the Daytona 500.

Michael McDowell – Last year McDowell accomplished the improbable. The veteran driver for the out-manned Front Row Motorsports team stuck his nose in the maelstrom of the final lap in the Daytona 500 and came out the victor. He would best stars like Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott in those closing seconds of the Great American Race. The win really isn't that all surprising. McDowell's seven-career Top 10's at Daytona check in at a reasonable 33-percent rate. He's always had a knack for this style of racing. In addition to his thrilling Daytona 500 victory last season, the driver of the No. 34 Ford also grabbed an impressive third-place finish in the Spring Talladega event. That's type of upside that this driver and team bring to the table to Daytona this weekend. 

Austin Dillon – If Dillon had a bit more speed, he'd be more than just a one-time Daytona 500 winner (2018). The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver has shown remarkable skill and consistency in his Daytona racing career. Dillon has a whopping eight Top-10 finishes at this track in just 17-career starts. With a Top-10 rate at 47-percent, this driver is remarkably successful and consistent in his starts at Daytona International Speedway. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet has led 74 laps at this big oval, so he's not a huge lap leader at Daytona, but Dillon always seems to bubble to the top of the lead pack in the closing laps of these Daytona races. In this event one year ago, Dillon shoved his way to the lead pack and came out of the last-lap mayhem unscathed to capture a brilliant third-place finish in the Great American Race.            

Aric Almirola – Things have been a bit lean for Almirola in terms of superspeedway racing the last year or so. That doesn't change the fact that this veteran driver knows how to succeed in these racing environments. The driver of the No. 10 Ford is entering his final season of Cup Series racing and would love to make this last Daytona 500 his finest. Almirola is a one-time Daytona winner (2014) and he's also a one-time winner at the big oval in Alabama. He's enjoyed a bit more success at Talladega than Daytona, but can perform well on either track. Since moving to Stewart Haas Racing in 2018, Almirola has grabbed one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes at Daytona International Speedway. This veteran driver certainly understands what it takes to win and succeed in this style of racing, and with the new season there's renewed hope and optimism in this driver and team.    

Chris Buescher – If there's one thing Buescher excelled at in his move to Roush Fenway Racing since 2020, it's been superspeedway racing. The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang has carried on the strong tradition that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. set in the car for performing well on these big ovals. Buescher has four Top 10's in his last eight starts between Daytona and Talladega. The veteran driver nabbed a brilliant third-place finish in the 2020 Daytona 500, and his last time out he notched a strong sixth-place finish last October at Talladega. It's not unusual to see Buescher lead a handful of laps here and there as well at these two huge ovals. Scott Graves comes on board this season as crew chief. He led Ryan Newman to several Top-5 and Top-10 performances at both Daytona and Talladega the last three seasons. Graves and Buescher should be a great combination for this Daytona 500.      

Corey Lajoie – Lajoie has become quite the specialist in superspeedway racing the last few seasons. The Spire Motorsports driver has posted all of his four-career Top 10's on the big tracks of Daytona and Talladega. His average finish on these ovals is quite a few spots better than his average finish on short tracks and intermediate ovals. Lajoie fares a bit better at Daytona than Talladega and that's good news for this weekend. The driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet has three Top 10's in his last five Daytona starts, and that includes Lajoie's strong ninth-place finish in last season's Daytona 500. If you're looking for a driver and team that is deeper in the player pool, but comes with good upside and potential for performance, Lajoie and company are your pick. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Perhaps the biggest risk/reward driver in the field this weekend is Busch in the No. 18 Toyota. He's a one-time winner at Daytona, but he's never won the Daytona 500. Busch's history at this oval is an uneven affair of brilliant finishes, and devastating DNF's. However, speed has never been an issue. With over 470-laps led at Daytona, Busch is almost always racing near the front. The bottom line is that this driver and team are a roll of the dice. Finishing these races has always been the "catch" with Busch. He has DNF'd in his last four-straight Daytona starts and he has just one Top 10 in his last 10 starts at this historic Florida oval. With a career Top-10 rate around 27-percent at Daytona, he's lower than what we like to recommend for safe fantasy racing deployment.   

Martin Truex Jr. – Daytona International Speedway certainly has gotten the best of Truex over his 17-season career. In 33 starts the Joe Gibbs Racing star has just five Top-10 finishes to his credit (15-percent). However, he almost always brings fast cars into the race, and that should be the case again this Sunday. Don't be duped by a good performance in the qualifying races or lap-time qualifying. Truex's record of finishing these races is poor at best. Last season is a great case study. Despite leading 15 laps combined between Daytona and Talladega, Truex collected finishes of 25th-, 31st-, 29th- and 12th-place. It's tempting to deploy Truex and his Joe Gibbs Racing team in the Daytona 500, but the risks outweigh the potential rewards. This driver simply struggles with this style of NASCAR racing.    

Daniel Suarez – We're high on Suarez when it comes to useful deep-league deployment in certain types of racing, but superspeedway racing isn't his best game. In just the last 10 events between Daytona and Talladega, Suarez has failed to post a single Top 10 and has just one Top-20 finish to his credit. The Trackhouse Racing driver checks in at a rather inflated 29.0 average finish across that span. The crash bugaboo has been the primary problem. Suarez has wrecked out of six of those 10 events. He seems to nearly always find trouble and an early exit to the garage area in these races. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet has crashed out of eight of his nine-career starts at Daytona, and those are some really bad odds to consider heading into Sunday's Great American Race.      

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports driver had a tough season on the big tracks in 2021. Until we see more of Bowman it's going to be tough to break with those optics. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet led just 2-combined laps between Daytona and Talladega last season, and the finishes were even tougher with just one Top 10 vs. three DNF's. Bowman was a bit out of character last season anyway. He transitioned more into a short track ace and less of a speedway performer. As for Daytona, Bowman's three-career Top 10's in 11 starts works out to a subpar 27-percent Top-10 rate. The bottom line is that this driver and team really haven't done much to distinguish themselves in this style of racing the last two seasons with an average finish of 22.8 between Daytona and Talladega.