Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: Championship Chase Begins

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval, and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit. It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between. The course has two distinctly different sets of turns. Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2. This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex. You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car. All this combined with the 23 – 25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns. On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility. Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns. This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track. Considering that we just came from the three-wide racing action of Daytona, we're in for a big change this weekend. The rim-riding action under the lights of Darlington on Sunday night can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

The first race in the 2023 Chase for the Cup is on tap this weekend. NASCAR changed the schedule three seasons ago and moved the start of the Chase from Las Vegas to the unique oval in Darlington. The stars of NASCAR will head to the Track Too Tough to Tame to kickoff this season's playoffs. We'll need to take into account several factors this weekend. Firstly, we'll need to examine the current hot streaks, as the trending drivers should carry their streaks of success or struggles into Darlington. Secondly, we'll need to take a look at how the drivers have performed on similar ovals this season. The intermediate oval is the most widely used track on the circuit, so we have plenty of data to examine. Lastly, we'll take an in-depth look at the race earlier this season at Darlington Raceway. That data will have some relevance for this weekend, even though that event was held way back in May. The crew chiefs' notes should be very helpful for the teams that finished well that weekend to repeat their success this weekend.

Figuring out our driver group this weekend won't be too much of a challenge. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true. We have already raced once at Darlington earlier this season, so we have very good and very recent data to examine. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 18 years or 23 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last four races at the South Carolina oval. Chevrolet drivers have swept the last two events at the egg-shaped track. Toyota drivers have had the most success at the facility in the last few seasons. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have racked up four of the last nine victories at the 1.366-mile oval, with Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin sweeping both Darlington races in 2021.

The new generation stock car has seen a bit of a shakeup at all the tracks and Darlington hasn't been immune to that phenomena. Joey Logano returned Ford to victory lane here in May of last year for the first time since 2020. The race would feature a whopping 24 lead changes, but Logano would still manage to lead a race-high 107 laps and hold off Tyler Reddick for the win. The last two Darlington events have gone to drivers from the bowtie camp. Erik Jones won this event one year ago in a bit of a shocker and William Byron won this season's earlier installment in South Carolina. It will be interesting to see if Toyota can climb back into the Darlington picture with the playoffs starting this weekend. Outlined below are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The two-time Darlington winner rides into South Carolina this week as the standings leader and top seed in the playoffs. Truex is in the driver's seat in more ways than one. This is the perfect track to kick off his quest for this season's championship. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota led a race-high 145 laps here in May and looked destined for victory lane, but a late-race accident would take him out of contention. Truex has led well over 900 laps for his career at Darlington Raceway and most of those have come since the 2020 season. The high-line racing style has appealed to Truex later in his career and he's made the most of it. He has to be seen as the top contender this Sunday evening in the Cook Out Southern 500.  

Joey Logano – The last couple weeks have been a time of refocus for Logano. An inconsistent season has seemingly been reversed in recent races and the Penske Racing star is ready for the playoffs. Logano has one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in his last two starts. He's coming off a strong fifth-place finish at Daytona International Speedway. Darlington Raceway has been a mediocre track over the years for the driver of the No. 22 Ford. However, Logano racked up his first win at the Track Too Tough to Tame in 2022 and he's won two of the last three pole positions here. Across this recent three-race Darlington span, the driver of the No. 22 Ford has led 171 laps combined. That's a lot of time up front at this facility and difficult to ignore.

William Byron – Byron has been a sharp instrument on the intermediate sized ovals this season and that's a stat that's difficult to write off heading into the playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has two wins, four Top-5 finishes and close to 300 laps led on the mid-sized tracks in 2023. Darlington is a bit different animal compared to the other mid-sized tracks on the circuit. The high-line racing groove is a bit of a wrinkle. However, Byron won our last race at Darlington Raceway in a strong performance and he cracks the Top-5 here at a good 30-percent rate. With laps led in each of his last three starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame, it's clear that Bryon is finally figuring this place out. He cannot be overlooked when forming your fantasy lineups this Sunday.   

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has had an inconsistent season, but he's still managed to scratch the win column a couple times in the regular season. He's always dangerous at his best tracks and we expect him to be at Darlington Raceway Sunday night. Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with four wins and 16 Top-10 finishes in 22-career starts. That works out to a stellar 73-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval. With 801 laps led in 22-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame. He won this event two years ago in the old generation stock car and finished runner-up in this event one year ago in the new generation stock car. That indicates he's far from finished collecting hardware at this oval. Hamlin is always a threat to win at Darlington Raceway. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chris Buescher – Buescher has had a nice season, and his three victories are a real testament to the season he's had in 2023. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has those wins and four Top-10's in the five races leading up to the Chase. Buescher has just three-career Top-10 finishes at Darlington Raceway, but the good news is that they've all come in his last five starts at the South Carolina oval. He's been gradually improving here and he's whittled his average finish at Darlington down to a respectable 17.5. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has a lot of momentum right now and he was a Top-10 finisher earlier this year at Darlington. Buescher makes a tempting choice in weekly lineup leagues this Sunday.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is a top Darlington Performer with one win and 10 Top-10 finishes which work out to a solid 11.7 average finish at the egg-shaped track. He rides a two-race Darlington Top-10 streak into Sunday's action and he's forged Top 10's in three of his last four starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Keselowski has been on a roll recently with Top-10 finishes in three of his last five races, including a brilliant runner-up performance this past week at Daytona. The veteran driver enters the Chase playoffs with a lot of momentum and a track that could reward him and get things rolling well. Keselowski started 10th on the grid here in May and pushed the No. 6 Mustang to a strong fourth-place finish in the Goodyear 400.  

Chase Elliott – The regular season ended without Elliott qualifying for the Chase field. That's the bad news. The good news is that he was routinely turning in good performances down the stretch, just not getting that valuable victory to qualify for the playoff field. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but Elliott has Top 10's in two of his last three visits to South Carolina including his strong third-place finish there this spring. That has boosted his Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway to a respectable 46-pecent. It has taken Elliott some time to figure this track out (13 starts) but it's clear he's becoming more comfortable here. He knows this season's championship it out of the cards, but a Top-5 finish would do wonders for the No. 9 team in preparing for 2024.   

Kevin Harvick – The good news for Harvick is that he made the playoff field without winning a single race and making it strictly on points. Now the points reset, which gives this veteran driver a good reboot for the Chase for the Cup. The even better news is that Darlington Raceway is a great place to kick off the final playoff run of his career. The veteran driver has three poles, three wins, two runner-up finishes and well over 800 laps led in his last 15 Darlington starts. That has led to an amazing 61-percent Top-10 rate at Track Too Tough to Tame entering this weekend. This high-groove style of racing has been a big success for Harvick and the No. 4 SHR team. He'll be on his game in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Kyle Busch – Busch's one Darlington win (2008) is not particularly recent, so he's not a major threat to win this race. However, his consistency at this facility has been pretty flawless for most of his career. Busch has four Top 10's in his last seven starts at this Raceway and that has boosted his career stats to 14 Top-10 finishes at the Track Too Tough to Tame for a strong 61-percent Top-10 rate. The Richard Childress Racing star has led 899-career laps at this facility, so Busch is not just riding in line when he races here. Busch finished a steady seventh-place earlier this season at Darlington. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is looking to make a big impression with the playoffs just getting underway and a potential championship in the balance.

Kyle Larson – Larson has had some recent tough outings at the Track Too Tough to Tame, so he's getting a bit of a downgrade this week to the sleepers list. However, there's no mistaking that he loves the high line racing action of this oval. It really suits his driving preference. Larson has over 700 laps led in just 11 starts at Darlington Raceway and his seven Top-10 finishes check in at a strong 64-percent rate. He qualified well (seventh) earlier this season at Darlington and led 29 laps, however, he would run into some trouble and drop back to a 20th-place finish. Larson's career average finish at this track is a very robust 10.2 and more representative of his potential in Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500.     

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster's eight starts at Darlington Raceway have only netted three Top-10 finishes (38-percent) and while that's a lower figure than we'd like to see, the average finish is more attractive 12.5. Most recently, Reddick has grabbed a pair of Top-3 finishes in his last three Darlington starts. That's an eye-opening statistic. When we combine that track specific performance with what this young driver has done on intermediate ovals this season (two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes) we get a real sense that Reddick could get his playoffs going on the right foot and right out of the gate. He should challenge the Top 10 Sunday night in this 500-mile playoff battle under the lights.  

Ryan Blaney – Darlington Raceway has always been a track with issues for Blaney. His career numbers here are pretty poor. However, the driver of the No. 12 Ford has started to improve those trends in his last few starts at the South Carolina raceway. With one pole position, 21 laps led, two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last five starts, Blaney is well ahead of his career averages here in his most recent sampling. Add to this fact that the Penske Racing veteran has been one of the more consistent intermediate oval performers this season with one win, three Top-10 finishes and a sharp 9.2 average finish on the mid-sized ovals. We believe Blaney could be one of the sneaky-good drivers this Sunday night and totally buck his historical reputation at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Christopher Bell – The driver of the No. 20 Toyota hasn't enjoyed much success at Darlington Raceway. However, recent starts have given us some hope of potential for Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Bell has nabbed a pair of Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last three Darlington starts. The average finish across this recent span is a strong 8.3. That figure is well better than his career average finish at the South Carolina oval of 16.0. Bell has been an inconsistent performer at times this season, but recently he seems to have gotten his act together leading into the Chase playoffs. He's won a pole position and collected two Top-10 finishes in the last four events heading into Darlington weekend.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace made his way into the Chase playoff field for the first time with a solid Top-15 finish at Daytona this past week and no first-time winner of the season at Daytona. That combined to put Wallace in the field based on points. Now he'll get to compete for a championship and look to up his performance accordingly. Wallace has been no slouch on intermediate ovals this season with Top-5 finishes at Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. In addition, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota has been strong in his last two Darlington Raceway starts with finishes of ninth- and fifth-place. Those are his first two Top 10's in 10-career starts at the track, and seemingly an indicator his figured out this high-line racing style.       

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – Chastain's struggles in the second half of this season are nothing to write off going into the playoffs. Since his big win at Nashville, the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has just one Top-10 finish in the last nine races. He's plummeted from second in the driver points to 10th-place over the span. Frankly, Chastain is limping into the Chase playoffs. Darlington Raceway is not the ideal track for the Trackhouse Racing veteran to turn things around. Only one of Chastain's eight-career starts at this challenging facility have netted a Top-10 finish and registered a lowly 22.8 career average finish here. He's led a fair number of laps in his last five Darlington starts, but the finishes simply have not materialized.               

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran probably wishes the Chase for the Cup start about anywhere else but Darlington Raceway. This oval has been a story of inconsistency and struggles for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. In 11-career starts Bowman has only collected three Top-10 finishes (27-percent) and posted a subpar 18.4 average finish. He was a 10th-place finisher at the track earlier this season, but that performance really seems to be an outlier compared to the overall sample. Bowman's lack of performance on intermediate ovals this season is another noteworthy stat. He has just one Top-10 finish all of this season on the intermediate oval circuit.  

Aric Almirola – Couple poor season performance on mid-sized ovals with Almirola's poor history at Darlington Raceway and it's clear that he should be a driver to avoid this weekend. His last look at the Track Too Tough to Tame netted an unimpressive 21st-place finish in May of this year. Almirola has just two Top 10's in 16-career starts for a lowly 13-percent Top-10 rate and subpar 17.6 average finish. When taken into consideration with how he's done on the mid-sized ovals this season (one Top-15 finish in five starts, 20.4 average finish) it's pretty clear that you should seek your fantasy racing help elsewhere this weekend.

Chase Briscoe – Among the full-time drivers, Briscoe has had some of the most difficulty finishing the intermediate oval races this season. The driver of the No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing Ford has just one Top-20 finish on these mid-sized ovals in 2023 and an inflated 25.2 average finish. In what has been a lean season for this driver and team, the short tracks and road circuits have been far kinder. Darlington Raceway itself has been a tough venue for Briscoe. In five-career starts he has just one Top-15 finish and a subpar 18.8 average finish across the five races. He simply doesn't qualify well here (21.8 average start) and it leads to struggles to maintain the lead lap and poor finishes at the Track Too Tough to Tame.