Consumers Energy 400 Preview: Pit-Strategy Gambit

NASCAR returns to Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the Consumers Energy 400.  This is the second and final race at the Brooklyn, Mich., oval for the season.  We return to the scene of Joey Logano's big victory in June at the two-mile oval.  He took the lead from William Byron with 18 laps to go, and held off Kurt Busch on a wild overtime restart to capture the victory.  

It's not always the strongest car and driver of the day that wins, but often times it's the team that surges in the final leg of the 400 miles or has the right pit strategy and timing at the end.  In this case, Logano was the strongest driver and team of the day, but he'd still have to rally late to cash in and grab the win.  Considering that the driver of the No. 22 Ford is battling for a good position in the Chase for the Cup entering this weekend, Logano will have high expectations coming to the Irish Hills of Michigan this time around.  The Penske Racing veteran has two wins this season and he will be looking to add to that total in order to improve his Chase for the Cup standing.  The distinct possibility of a Logano Michigan sweep is on everyone's minds as we take on Sunday's Consumers Energy 400.

While there is a Logano sweep theme this weekend, we have to acknowledge that it has mostly been Chevrolet teams and drivers that have been everyone's nemesis over the last several weeks.  Drivers for the bowtie brand have grabbed four wins in the last six events, so they are surging in the return to Michigan International Speedway.  Granted, they have a tall task ahead.  Chevy hasn't won at MIS since the 2017 season, and Ford drivers have grabbed the last three-straight victories at the huge oval.  Drivers like Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman will be tasked with job of overthrowing Ford's short reign at Michigan this weekend.

As usual, we'll take a look at the loop stats for the last several races at this week's track in order to collect some recent data on the drivers.  The table below has the loop data for the last 29 races at Michigan International Speedway.  This information will be helpful, but we'll put some emphasis on the results from June's FireKeepers Casino 400, since it was only several weeks ago and we expect that the teams will utilize the same setups for this race as well.  What worked in June will likely work well again this weekend.  Here are the loop stats for the top-performing Michigan drivers, sorted by driver rating.

In the season's first running at Michigan International Speedway we can take away more information than just Logano's third-career win at the oval.  The FireKeepers Casino 400 saw 20 lead changes among 11 drivers.  That total was a three-season high at the track, despite Logano's overall dominance of the lead.  While there were more green-flag passes for the lead, passing back in traffic proved difficult.  Once again, Michigan seemed to come down to who had the "clean air."  It will be interesting to see if the teams adjust or NASCAR makes any changes that could improve this situation in race No. 2 at Michigan.  This oval typically produces fuel mileage battles, but not that day in June.  The late crash by Erik Jones and caution flag negated all the fuel mileage strategies, although it was setting up that way if the race had run green until the end.  Hopefully, we'll see more lead changes and more leaders in this Sunday's Consumers Energy 400. 

While everyone is focused on the sweep watch this Sunday, we can't lose sight of the other dominant teams coming to the Irish Hills.  Could we see another Chevrolet driver step up and win at MIS this weekend?  With Chase Elliott's big win at the Glen last week, all eyes will be on the No. 9 Chevrolet at Michigan.  Will Martin Truex Jr. surprise and win his first-career Michigan event?  Will Kevin Harvick rebound from a subpar Watkins Glen performance, and challenge for the win after his strong Michigan showing in June?  Will Kyle Busch step up and rebound from his disappointing mishap at Watkins Glen last weekend in this Sunday's Consumers Energy 400?  We'll attempt to answer these questions and many more as we outline all the drivers you need to dominate the day at Michigan International Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing veteran is having a good season in the No. 22 Ford, but things could be better.  Logano comes to Michigan, which has been a track of high performance and rewards for him over the years.  Logano has more than 500 laps led for his career at Michigan International Speedway, and he is a three-time winner at this track.  Logano owns 15 Top-10 finishes at MIS in 21 starts.  That works out to an impressive 71 percent Top-10 rate at this facility.  He started on the pole position here in June and dominated his way to his third-career Michigan win.  Logano finished a brilliant runner-up at the similar oval in Fontana earlier this season.  He shouldn't disappoint in Sunday's Consumers Energy 400. 

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off a disappointing 11th-place finish at Watkins Glen.  After run-ins with a couple drivers, Busch had to rally hard to finish that well.  Now we visit an oval that's been a really good venue of late for the veteran Toyota driver.  Busch is a one-time Michigan winner, and his last three trips to the Irish Hills have yielded Top-5 finishes.  Those performances have boosted his career Top-5 rate at Michigan to a respectable 24-percent.  In June, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota started 15th on the grid and battled heavy traffic most of the 200 laps to finish an impressive fifth.  He led 134 laps and won at the similar two-mile oval in Fontana earlier this season, so home run potential is there.  We expect Busch and his No. 18 team to be in the mix with the leaders in this 400-mile battle. 

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran is coming off an impressive runner-up performance this past week at Watkins Glen, and he'll be looking to build on that effort with a victory at Michigan International Speedway.  Truex has been strong on the larger ovals the past few seasons.  His last four trips to Michigan have yielded a second- and third-place finish as well as 82 total laps led.  Those finishes have bolstered his career Top-10 rate to 37-percent and an average finish of 15.0.  While Truex has yet to win at this two-mile oval, he won last season at the similar track in Fontana.  We really feel like the driver of the No. 19 Toyota is on the verge of a Michigan breakthrough.  He should be a top contender to win Sunday afternoon in the Irish Hills.

Kevin Harvick – The two-mile ovals have always been tracks of success for the Stewart Haas Racing star.  Harvick is a two-time winner at Michigan and one of those victories came in this event one year ago.  He led 15 laps here in June and raced among the leaders all afternoon in the FireKeepers Casino 400, before finally finishing seventh.  Harvick rides a three-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  Those efforts have brought his career Top-5 rate at Michigan up to a very impressive 32-percent mark.  Harvick's six runner-up finishes at this two-mile oval since the 2013 season, speaks to his excellence here.  Make no mistake about it, the No. 4 Ford team brings a lot of homerun potential to the table with a start at Michigan.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Brad Keselowski – After another workmanlike effort, Keselowski grabbed his third-consecutive Top 10 with his ninth-place finish at Watkins Glen this past week.  With the No. 2 Ford team performing well, the Penske Racing star will be happy to make this homecoming trip to Michigan.  Keselowski has been steadily improving on these two-mile ovals the last few seasons, and he can't wait to mount another effort to win at his home state track.  He peddled to a brilliant runner-up finish in this event one year ago.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford returned in June of this year and registered a sixth-place in the FireKeepers Casino 400 extending his current Michigan Top-10 streak to three races.  Keselowski may be a long-odds favorite to win, but he should have a good line on a strong, Top-10 finish.

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran makes a strong fantasy racing play this Sunday at MIS.  Busch has been putting up impressive performances this season, including his steady 10th-place finish at the Glen this past week.  The veteran driver sports a three-race Michigan Top-10 streak entering the weekend, and that includes his impressive runner-up finish in the Irish Hills in June.  Don't get caught up in Busch's 38-percent career Top-10 rate at Michigan, rather, look at his body of work the last few seasons.  He has an average finish of 6.2 on the two-mile ovals of Fontana and Michigan the last two seasons.  His success at the similar oval in Fontana has been just as impressive.  Busch rides a four-race Fontana/Michigan Top-10 streak into Sunday's Consumers Energy 400.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing driver has been very consistent in recent visits to the two-mile ovals.  Blaney scored a fifth-place finish in this event last season, and he nabbed a ninth-place finish earlier this summer at Michigan.  He has finishes of eighth- and fifth-place in his last two visits to the similar oval in Fontana, California.  These sweeping two-mile ovals are really to Blaney's liking, and it shows in the results.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford scored an impressive fifth-place finish this past weekend at the Glen and he'll be eager to get back inside the Top 10 with this visit to the Irish Hills.  The talented youngster should be sharp in Sunday's 400-mile battle at Michigan.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming off a strong third-place finish at Watkins Glen this past week, and extending his current Top-5 streak to four races.  The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been pretty stellar of late, and that's the primary reason for the solid plays list ranking this week.  Michigan International Speedway has been an up-and-down track for the veteran driver most of his career.  However, Hamlin does have two-career wins at this oval and 12 Top-10 finishes (44-percent).  He qualified fourth- and finished 11th-place here in June, and he nabbed the pole position and finished eighth at Michigan in this event one year ago.  Hamlin should have plenty of speed for this installment of the Consumers Energy 400, and he should challenge the Top 5 Sunday afternoon in this 400-mile battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Michigan who can provide a solid finish

Kyle Larson – The three-time Michigan winner is literally the wild card in the deck this Sunday at Michigan International Speedway.  The Chip Ganassi Racing star is coming off a strong, eighth-place showing at Watkins Glen last weekend, and he'll carry that momentum into Sunday's contest at MIS.  A few seasons ago, Larson was the gold standard on the two-mile ovals, but he's come back to the pack the last couple years.  Hi last three-combined starts between Michigan and Fontana have netted 17th-, 12th- and 14th-place finishes.  The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet is currently getting his act together and racing much better with Top 10's in three of his last four starts.  We could see the Larson of old at Michigan this weekend.

Chase Elliott – Elliott noticeably turned it up a notch or two to bring his Top-10 slump to an end with a dominant victory at Watkins Glen this past Sunday.  He looks to carry that momentum into the Irish Hills this week.  The two-mile Michigan oval should provide the perfect opportunity for this young driver to challenge for another victory, or at the very least nab a Top-10 finish.  Elliott's seven-career starts at Michigan International Speedway has yielded a trifecta of runner-up finishes, and six Top 10's.  He's also led 67 combined laps in those starts, so he hasn't been just playing follow-the-leader.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver had a subpar outing here in June's FireKeepers Casino 400, but we're willing to bet Elliott will be much better this time around. 

Erik Jones – While Jones was disappointing at MIS in June (crash and 31st-place finish), he's been on a tear ever since.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has been one of the hottest drivers in the series the last two months.  Jones has four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in the seven races since the Monster Energy Cup Series was at Michigan in June.  The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been a bit puzzled by two-mile ovals during his brief career.  Jones has a 17.0 average finish between Fontana and Michigan in his last five starts.  We're willing to bet he shakes off that stigma this Sunday afternoon.  He's going to show what he's learned at Michigan in Sunday's Consumers Energy 400.

Aric Almirola – The veteran Stewart Haas Racing driver slugged his way to a steady 12th-place finish this past weekend at Watkins Glen.  That gives Almirola 11th-, 12th- and 12th-place finishes in his last three starts.  That "verge of the Top 10" theme should continue in Sunday's race in the Irish Hills. The No. 10 Ford team have had great speed this season on two-mile ovals.  Almirola qualified third at Fontana earlier this season and he qualified on the outside pole at Michigan in June.  The finishes on the two-mile tracks have been steady but not stellar the last two seasons.  He's posted a pair of Top 10's in five starts (40-percent) but a respectable 11.2 average finish.  We should once again see Almirola battling it out around the back end of the Top 10 at Michigan International Speedway.     

Daniel Suarez – Suarez is battling through some inconsistency recently.  His 19th-, 24th- and 17th-place finishes in the last three events is a bit further back in the field than we'd like to see the young driver.  However, there's good reason for optimism coming back to Michigan this weekend.  Suarez had an incredible run here in June.  He piloted the No. 41 Ford to a brilliant fourth-place finish in the FireKeepers Casino 400.  Suarez was also impressive in his Fontana start earlier this season.  He raced well that afternoon and finished 13th in the fifth race of this season.  We believe Suarez and crew chief, Billy Scott, learned a lot in their June experience at Michigan.  Things that they will employ to shake Suarez out of his recent rut. 

Ryan Newman – What Newman has achieved this season in the No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford is nothing short of impressive.  He's piloted this once struggling team to one Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes, and stands a respectable 16th in the overall driver standings coming to Michigan.  This two-mile oval has given Newman lots of accolades over the years.  He's a two-time Michigan winner, and has grabbed 10-career Top-10 finishes with two of those coming in just his last four starts.  Newman finished 15th in this event one year ago, and we can't forget his brilliant eighth-place performance here in June.  The veteran driver should be one of the safest Top 15 fantasy racing plays in the field this weekend.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Clint Bowyer – The one-time Michigan winner is battling some problems coming to the Irish Hills this weekend.  Bowyer is currently mired in a three-race Top-10 drought, and for a talented road course driver, he muddled to a disappointing 20th-place finish at the Glen this past week.  With only one Top-10 finish in the last eight races, Bowyer has fallen from 10th-place to 15th-place in the driver standings over the last two months.  The chances to shake that off this Sunday seem slim.  Two-mile ovals have been a puzzle for Bowyer since his big win at MIS in early 2018.  Finishes of 12th-, 38th- and 35th-place have been his body of work at Fontana and Michigan since that victory.  Mental errors, mistakes and bad breaks have prevented Bowyer from finishing better.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson hasn't looked much like a seven-time champion the last several weeks, and his current four-race Top-10 drought can't go overlooked.  The Hendrick Motorsports star is hoping to improve his point standing before the Chase for the Cup begins, and there will be a lot of pressure to perform in this Michigan race.  Johnson has always looked less than superhuman at the Michigan oval over the years.  Despite one-career win, he only has 13 Top 10's in 35-career starts at this track (37-percent).  MIS ranks has one of his bottom four tracks on the circuit.  Johnson has only two Top 10's in his last nine Michigan starts, and that sort of falls in line with that 37-percent rate.      

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet Camaro will hope to get back on track this week.  Bowman battled to a 14th-place finish at Watkins Glen this past Sunday, but his current Top-10 drought has reached five races after the big Chicago win earlier this summer.  Mediocrity is probably the word that best sums up this driver and team the last several weeks.  After the Chicago win, hopes were high, but no impressive streak materialized.  Bowman has been a tough luck performer at Michigan most of his career.  Although he did register a 10th-place finish here in June, it was his first Top 10 in eight Michigan starts.  His 18.8 average finish at MIS since joining Hendrick Motorsports is probably a more reasonable mark to expect in Sunday's Consumers Energy 400.

Darrell Wallace Jr. – The Richard Petty Motorsports youngster had a big run-in with Kyle Busch this past weekend at Watkins Glen.  The battle on the track led to a bruised car and bruised ego for Busch, but the incident proved to be a blood boiling affair for Wallace en route to finishing 28th-place.  He was very vocal about Busch in the days after the Watkins Glen race.  Now the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet will look to set that all aside and focus on a good run at Michigan.  That's where things will get tricky.  Two-mile ovals have been a struggle for Wallace the past two seasons.  He has two Top-20 finishes in five-combined starts between Fontana and Michigan, but a lowly 24.0 average finish.  He was a distant 28th-place here in June, and will likely be in that same neighborhood again Sunday afternoon.