Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview: Cut to the Chase

We return to racing under the lights this week. The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to where the season started this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The second Daytona race of the season has historically been held July 4th week every year, but NASCAR shook up the schedule a couple seasons ago and moved this thrilling night race to the final race of NASCAR's regular season. This event will be the cut race to the playoffs, NASCAR's Chase for the Cup.  The added urgency to improve one's playoff position or to make it into the field will ratchet the pressure up to 11 this Saturday night. 

Unlike the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series races under the lights for this dramatic and entertaining racing event. This will be the third superspeedway race of the 2022 season, so we should now begin to see some trends forming on these larger ovals. With the same next generation stock car being used for the second time this season at Daytona, we hope to see some the same racing that made the Daytona 500 a competitive and exciting affair. If the drivers can duplicate the action we saw in April at Talladega, we should be in for a thrilling ride this Saturday night. The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season featured 41 lead changes among 16 different drivers for a very thrilling event. The Daytona 500 offered a comparable 35 lead changes, so we will see if more lead swaps will happen this weekend after two superspeedway races are in the bank with this car and rules package. The pack racing that superspeedways create leads to lots of lead changes and parity. However, we also need to remember that the 13 cars that DNF'd at Talladega is also a season high mark, and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too. So we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing. We should be in for that same type of fireworks in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this weekend. With this event at Daytona being held at night, it always introduces a new dynamic to this high stakes racing. While there are many parallels we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this spring for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the superspeedway ovals. This information will be the foundation of our picks for this week's race. We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway. While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at these huge tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis. The data shown below covers the last 17 years or 34 races at Daytona International Speedway.

Team Penske's Austin Cindric won this year's Daytona 500. The victory made the rookie an upset, first-time winner of the Great American Race. The driver of the No. 2 Ford pulled off the major upset that February afternoon with his brilliant overtime restart and blocks of Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace, coming to the checkered flag to collect the huge win. The mayhem and jockeying behind Cindric on the last lap of the Daytona 500 made for a perfect situation for Cindric, and he wasted no time seizing that opportunity. When the series traveled to Talladega in late April it was a total free-for-all, but William Byron managed to lead the most laps with 38. Kyle Larson would also lead 32 laps but would come up short of victory lane. It would be Ross Chastain walking away with that victory, thanks to some more last-lap heroics in the midst of mayhem. The theme so far in 2022 on superspeedway ovals has been brilliant moves and last-lap surprises by the eventual race winners.   

While he didn't win either race, Ryan Blaney will be looking to make his mark this Saturday night. The young Penske Racing driver is still winless for the season and is looking for that crucial victory to lock up a spot in the Chase for the Cup. Blaney finished an impressive fourth place in the Daytona 500 and finished a strong 11th place at Talladega in the spring. He led a combined 59 laps between both races and was a factor in both events. Aside from Blaney, the other Ford driver making headlines coming into Daytona is Kevin Harvick. He's fresh off his second win of the season in the last three races and is riding a wave of momentum into the regular season finale. Harvick is a two-time winner at the Daytona oval and has led close to 300 laps for his career there. Will the Stewart Haas Racing veteran be able to step up his game at Daytona? That and among many other questions will be answered this Saturday night. We'll take a look at recent history and the 2022 Daytona 500 to give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – Blaney would make the field for the playoffs assuming nobody else who's yet to win a race this season grabs the victory Saturday night at Daytona. Still, the pressure to lock in that last playoff spot will be huge on Blaney and the No. 12 team. Fortunately for the young driver, he's an ace at superspeedway racing. Blaney won this event one year ago for his lone Daytona victory and is a two-time winner at the big oval in Talladega. This season on the big tracks, he's led a combined 59 laps and cracked the Top 5 at Daytona, and he also finished a respectable 11th-place at Talladega in the spring. Blaney has been a top performer the last few seasons in this style of racing and will be a motivated threat to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400.            

Chase Elliott – Elliott may have been foiled in his attempt to win late at Watkins Glen this past Sunday, but rack him up for another run at the checkers this weekend at Daytona. The Hendrick Motorsports star is already the number one seed heading into the Chase playoffs, but he'll gladly try to grab another win before the regular season closes. Elliott has never won at Daytona International Speedway, but he's flirted closely with the honor in recent seasons. He was a back-to-back runner-up finisher here in 2020 and 2021 and rides a four-race Daytona Top-10 streak into Saturday night's action. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a one-time winner at the similar oval in Talladega and he's cracked the Top 10 twice this season in the new generation stock car at these two ovals. Elliott will be in the mix for the win in the closing laps at Daytona.

Kyle Larson – Coming off the momentum of his second win of the season at Watkins Glen this past Sunday, Larson rides some big momentum into Daytona and the regular season finale. The Hendrick Motorsports star won the pole earlier this season for the Daytona 500, but a late crash would foil his attempts to win. Larson made up for that with a stellar performance at the similar oval in Talladega in April by leading a dominating 32 laps en route to an impressive fourth-place finish in the GEICO 500. The Hendrick Motorsports star has never been a big performer on the large superspeedway ovals, but the new car seems to have helped him in that regard. Larson has won the last two Daytona pole positions, so speed has not been an issue for this driver and team.  

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is a two-time Daytona winner and a one-time Talladega winner. The veteran driver boasts some incredible counting statistics at both ovals. At Daytona alone, Harvick's 16 Top 10s amount to a respectable 38-percent Top-10 rate, and he's led nearly 300 laps. His 44-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega is equally impressive and shows he really understands racing in the draft and knows how to make moves to the front in this high-stakes form of racing. Harvick and the No. 4 SHR team have seemingly figured out the Next-Gen car, with a pair of victories in the last few weeks, so he's visiting Daytona International Speedway at a very good time.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – Busch has been typically a tough-luck driver in this form of racing, but 2022 has seen the Joe Gibbs Racing star turn that bad luck around. With finishes of sixth at Daytona and third at Talladega, Busch has seemingly reversed his typical bad luck in superspeedway racing this season. The 31 laps led this year between the two ovals offer some additional boost in fantasy racing value. Busch has experienced some tough luck in the last several weeks, but we believe he'll shake that off given the stakes this weekend and prepare for a deep playoff run. Busch is a one-time Daytona victor and will have the speed to contend with the leaders this Saturday evening.

Joey Logano – Logano hasn't had much luck in the new stock car in this form of racing, but we can't overlook his past success in superspeedway racing. The Penske Racing star is a one-time Daytona winner and three-time Talladega winner. Logano has led 220 laps at Daytona, with most of those coming since the 2019 season, so we're quite used to seeing the No. 22 Ford up front here. The veteran driver has been inconsistent this season, but Logano has strung together his longest Top-10 streak of the season (four races) entering this Saturday night's action. With the playoffs fast approaching it would seem this driver and team are getting their act together in a big way. Logano's expertise in superspeedway racing in the recent past speaks for itself heading into this 400-mile battle.  

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin had a two-race Top-5 streak halted at Watkins Glen this past Sunday, but he'll look to heat up again at Daytona. Hamlin has three Daytona 500 victories dating back to 2016 he boasts a respectable 36-percent Top-10 rate at this high-stakes track. With well over 600 career laps led at the Florida speedway, he knows all too well what it takes to race up front here and win. Hamlin is also a two-time Talladega winner and cracks the Top 10 there at a strong 42-percent rate. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is locked into the Chase playoff field, but he'd like to end the regular season on a high note and set the tone for the upcoming Chase for the Cup playoffs. A good performance at Daytona would set that much-needed tone for this No. 11 Toyota team.      

Michael McDowell – McDowell came painfully close to the win at Watkins Glen last Sunday. That potential victory would have moved the Front Row Motorsports veteran into the Chase playoff field. However, McDowell missed that opportunity and now looks to Daytona as his last chance to go playoff racing in 2022. Fortunately for the driver of the No. 38 Ford, he's last season's Daytona 500 winner and finished a respectable seventh place in this season's installment at Daytona in February. McDowell has been spot on this season in the new generation stock car at the superspeedways, with a pair of Top 10's at Daytona and Talladega. The veteran driver will be racing to win Saturday night in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.       

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Austin Cindric – The winner of this season's Daytona 500 heads up the sleepers list this week. The Penske Racing youngster led 21 laps and won a commanding but surprise victory in the season-opener at Daytona International Speedway. That experience will serve the driver of the No. 2 Ford well heading into the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Cindric has experience on superspeedways dating back to his Xfinity Series career. He won at Daytona and collected four Top 10s in this division of NASCAR and also finished runner-up and nabbed four Top 10s at Talladega in the Xfinity Series. The talented rookie will have impact in Saturday night's regular-season finale at Daytona.     

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has historically been a tough-luck finisher in these superspeedway events, but 2022 has been a different story so far for Truex and the No. 19 Toyota team. Truex stayed out of the big wrecks, led 11 laps and finished a steady 13th in the season-opening Daytona 500. He followed that performance up with a brilliant fifth-place run at Talladega in the spring. Truex eagerly awaits another shot at Daytona this weekend. He's been racing well leading up to this event with three Top 10s in his last five races, including a strong seventh-place finish on the 2.5-mile tri-oval of Pocono Raceway. Despite a career 15-percent Top-10 rate at Daytona, we believe he makes a strong fantasy consideration in this 400-mile battle.

Austin Dillon – Dillon has always been a top performer on superspeedway ovals and specifically at Daytona. 18 career starts have yielded eight Top-10 finishes and one victory for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet. Dillon's last start on a superspeedway netted a brilliant runner-up finish this spring at Talladega, so that past success in the old generation stock car is starting to follow into the new Next-Gen car. Dillon has the gift of racing well on these big ovals and understands the crucial timing of when to make your move in the closing laps to secure a good finish. The Richard Childress Racing veteran will be a solid performer Saturday night in the regular season finale.   

Ross Chastain – Chastain is best summed up as high-risk, high-reward this weekend at Daytona. While he's shown speed this season on certain tracks, he's also shown a knack for finding trouble that robs him of good finishes. If you're willing to accept that risk, there may be no better high-ceiling driver in the field this Saturday night at Daytona. Chastain crashed and did not finish in this season's Daytona 500 but rallied back in April and won the thrilling race at Talladega. Those two divides accurately sum up the No. 1 Chevrolet team this weekend. Chastain has always had the gift of superspeedway racing, as he's a one-time Daytona winner in the Xfinity Series and cracked the Top 10 there at a stellar 54-percent rate at that level.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace had been on quite a roll until last week's disappointment at Watkins Glen. However, we believe there's good reason for a Wallace rebound this week at Daytona. The 23XI Racing driver is a skilled superspeedway performer, leading a combined 17 laps between Daytona and Talladega this season and earning a brilliant runner-up finish in the Daytona 500. Wallace now owns four Top-5 finishes in 10 career starts at Daytona, with the last two being both runner-up finishes. His average finish stands at a dazzling 12.5 over those 10 events. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota won a rain-shortened event at Talladega last season and clearly knows how to race in the big-pack drafting.       

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe earned a Daytona career-best third-place finish in the Daytona 500. That performance left a pretty big impression, and the young driver carried away a ton of experience after that Top-5 performance. He didn't have as much luck later in the season at Talladega and was rolled up in a big early-race crash. However, the driver of the No. 14 Ford should head back to the scene of his Top 5 at Daytona with some eager anticipation. Briscoe enjoyed some modest success at the two superspeedway ovals in his Xfinity Series career and is obviously figuring the ins-and-outs of this style of racing in the Next-Gen Cup car. The bigger ovals have been tracks of success for the No. 14 team this season.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kurt Busch – Busch has now missed five consecutive races after his absence at Watkins Glen this past week. His concussion symptoms will keep him out of the No. 45 Toyota once again this weekend at Daytona. The veteran 23XI Racing driver is normally a pretty big fantasy play on the superspeedway ovals, but Busch is being held out of one more event before making his return to kick off the Chase for the Cup at Darlington Raceway. Keep him benched for one more week before considering redeployment during the playoffs.   

Tyler Reddick – The young Richard Childress Racing driver has had a fantastic season, but the superspeedways have been a real puzzle for Reddick. He was tangled up in a late-race crash in the Daytona 500 and did not finish that event. Reddick also suffered the misfortune of an early-race engine failure in his No. 8 Chevrolet at Talladega and finished a disappointing 39th-place in that race. His six-career Cup Series starts at Daytona International Speedway have only netted one Top-10 finish vs. four DNFs, with his average finish across that span standing at an inflated 25.2. Reddick has been incredibly good on many tracks this season, but it's probably best to keep him benched at Daytona.

William Byron – Byron has been a tough-luck driver on superspeedway ovals the last year-plus. His last six starts between Daytona and Talladega have only netted one Top-10 finish and a lofty average finish of 25.7. Despite being a one-time Daytona winner, Byron's five DNFs there have dragged his Top-10 rate down to just 22-percent while inflating his average finish to 24.4. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been rather unspectacular of late, and that's not a good look heading into the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Byron rides a nine-race Top-10 drought into Daytona and won't likely shake that slump off Saturday night.     

Christopher Bell – Bell has been a top performer in recent weeks, but he's a driver to fade for the regular-season finale at Daytona. The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has five career starts at Daytona International Speedway and just one Top-15 finish, good for a subpar 23.2 average finish. Even though Bell won the pole and led 7 laps at Talladega in the spring, he wound up a disappointing 22nd place at the conclusion of 500 miles. With just one Top-10 finish in 10 combined Daytona and Talladega starts, it's clear that superspeedway racing hasn't been Bell's best. He's a driver to slide to the bench this Saturday night.