Can-Am 500 Preview: Prelude to the Championship

We make a big departure from the 1.5-mile intermediate ovals and come to one of the few flat tracks on the circuit. PIR is an irregular "D-shaped" oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees. The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. It is truly a unique facility among those on the Monster Energy Cup circuit, and very fitting that it plays a key role in the Chase for the Monster Energy Cup championship. Phoenix is not a rhythm track like some of the cookie cutter ovals that we have raced recently. It's unusual configuration will test the concentration and nerve of the drivers as they complete 312 circuits on this flat oval.

Since Phoenix International Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well. Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix. However, one theme will be quite clear. Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott will be driving over each other to secure the final spot in the championship round of the Chase. As a quick glance at the standings shows us, the Monster Energy Cup championship is still up for grabs coming into the Can-Am 500. With the wrecks and other mayhem of Texas still fresh in our memory, all eyes will be on the Arizona desert this weekend. As pressure advance in the Chase builds, we could see some major fireworks on the race track this Sunday afternoon.

For the first time since March, we're racing at PIR. It was almost eight months ago that the Monster Energy Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert. Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Camping World 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 12 seasons at PIR for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the loop stats for the last 25 races at Phoenix International Raceway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick - Harvick locked up a berth in the Championship 4 with his win at Texas last week. A bit of the pressure is now off, but he'd certainly like to ride the momentum of the win into Arizona and make it a two-race win streak going into the season finale at Homestead. Harvick has been the dominant force at this oval since the 2012 season and has the six victories to prove it. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has a strong career resume at this Arizona short track. He has nearly 1,500 laps led at this facility and eight total victories. Harvick carries a staggering eight-race Phoenix Top-6 streak into Sunday's Can-Am 500. That makes him the most dominant and consistent driver at this oval for the past five years.

Kyle Busch - Busch's career resume at PIR is a mixed bag, but it's been turning much more positive in recent seasons. He has three pole positions, one win and 16 Top 10's in 24 races at the desert oval. His most recent outings have yielded four-straight finishes inside the Top-5 at Phoenix International Raceway. That illustrates his recent excellence at this flat short track. Considering that Busch comes to PIR second in the Chase standings this weekend, he'll be looking to make a statement performance and set the tone for the one-race take-all championship at Homestead. Busch's upside is pretty tremendous and balanced with a career 67-percent Top-10 rate. He led 114 laps at PIR during this spring's Camping World 500, before finishing third. Busch should have won that day, and you can bet he'll remember that this Sunday afternoon.

Chase Elliott - The impressive young driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet had a setback in his pursuit of the championship. Elliott still has one last shot to toss the Hail Mary for the victory this weekend and advance to the final round of the Chase. His three prior Cup starts at Phoenix have netted a pair of Top-10 finishes, and a good performance this past March. He led 106 laps that afternoon in the Arizona desert, but fell back to finish 12th. Certainly the potential and experience are present for a surprising run for Elliott this weekend. So we wouldn't rule out the young driver shocking the series at PIR. At the very least he'll go for broke in terms of the win, and come out with a Top-5 or Top-10 finish.

Brad Keselowski - The No. 2 Penske Racing Ford team sits on the points bubble to advance in the Chase. Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have already clinched a spot in the final round at Homestead. That leaves Keselowski as the present driver in the fourth spot based on points. Keselowski has Top-10 finishes in five of his last seven trips to PIR. That span includes 59 laps led and three Top-5 finishes at the desert short track. He turned in a workmanlike Top-5 finish at Texas this past week, and we can likely expect to see more of the same at Phoenix. With the Penske Racing star looking towards a potential second championship trophy, he has the talent and motivation to put on a great performance at Phoenix International Raceway this weekend.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Joey Logano - The Penske Racing driver has had a tough season, but he's shown some signs of getting it together of late. Logano has one pole position, 119 laps led and a pair of Top 10's in his last four races. He won this event one year ago and that gives Logano six Top-10 finishes in his last eight trips to central Arizona. Over that eight-race span he's led a noteworthy 296 laps, in an attempt to steal the spotlight from Phoenix ace, Kevin Harvick. Those laps led are second only to Harvick during the same time period. So not only has Logano been finishing inside the Top 10 but he's been leading laps and setting the pace at times. This driver and team would love to finish the season strong and look forward to a better 2018 campaign.

Denny Hamlin - The Joe Gibbs Racing star heads to Phoenix as a driver desperately trying to advance in the Chase for the Cup. Hamlin enters PIR fifth in the championship standings and firmly on the bubble for elimination. This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix International Raceway. Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering. He has two pole positions, one victory and 14 Top-10 finishes in his Phoenix resume. That works out to a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. With an impressive average finish of 10.8 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough short track. Hamlin's been strong on the bullring circuit of late with a pair of Top 5's and four Top 10's in his last five starts. His near brush with victory at Martinsville a couple weeks ago is still fresh in our memory.

Kurt Busch - No matter what happens Sunday afternoon, Busch can hold his head high as he's finishing a somewhat disappointing season well. He slipped into a long slump after his season-opening Daytona 500 win, but he's roared back to life in the last three weeks. PIR should present him with another opportunity to post a Top 10 before the season ends. Busch has solid career numbers at this small oval. 29-career starts have yielded 17 Top-10 finishes, 751 laps led and one victory. He's had his fair share of success at the Arizona flat track. In this event one year ago he qualified 12th on the starting grid and finished a stellar fifth after 314 circuits of the Desert Jewel. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran hasn't been strong on the short tracks in the second half of the season, but we're expecting him to buck that trend in Sunday afternoon's Can-Am 500.

Martin Truex Jr. - The No. 78 Furniture Row Racing team is locked into the championship round of the Chase, and they're simply honing their skills and practicing their excellence at Phoenix this weekend. The veteran driver rides a three-race Top-2 streak into the desert oval, and has close to 200 laps led during this three-race span. Truex has only seven Top-10 finishes in his 23-career starts at PIR as this is not one of his more successful ovals. That works out to a lowly 17.6 average finish. Recent outings at the Arizona short track have been much better for this veteran driver. Truex has been unstoppable of late, even on his lesser tracks. Nothing illustrates this better than his surprising runner-up finish at Martinsville a couple weeks ago. Truex is racing headlong towards the championship, and they'll race with a purpose this weekend at PIR.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Phoenix who can provide a solid finish

Ryan Blaney - Coming off the strong sixth-place finish and good performance at Texas, Blaney is looking to finish the season strong. Phoenix offers another opportunity for the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing team to challenge the Top 10. Blaney is still alive in the Chase for the Cup and looking to punch his ticket to Homestead and a shot at the championship. While that might be a bit of a longshot, you can guarantee the No. 21 Ford team will bring their best to the Arizona desert this weekend. Blaney has three career starts at PIR with two Top-10 finishes to his credit. That bodes well going into the Can-Am 500. The young driver rides a three-race Top-10 streak into this weekend that includes another flat short track, Martinsville Speedway, just a couple weeks ago.

Jimmie Johnson - After an improbable 27th-place finish at Texas this past weekend, Jonson comes to Phoenix with his back against the wall. He's facing elimination going into the championship round of the Chase, and only a Hail Mary victory will get him to the table of 4 at Homestead. The Hendrick Motorsports star has enjoyed a lot of success at Phoenix International Raceway over the years. Johnson is a four-time winner at PIR, and he has a staggering 20Top-10 finishes in 28-career starts (71-percent). The Hendrick Motorsports star has had his issues of late, thus the sleeper ranking this week. However, if there is any driver in the field that stage a major comeback at this track, it's Johnson and his No. 48 Chevrolet team.

Matt Kenseth - After a ninth-place finish at Martinsville and cracking the Top 5 at Texas, we have to give a strong recommendation to Kenseth and the No. 20 team at Phoenix. He rides a two-race Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. The veteran driver is a one-time winner with 11 Top-10 finishes at the Arizona short track. Two of Kenseth's last five Phoenix trips have yielded Top-10 finishes. Considering how well the Joe Gibbs Racing star is performing right now, we have to be very optimistic that this is an "uptick" visit to the Desert Jewel. In this event one year ago Kenseth led 55 laps before fortunes turned south on him and he finished mid-pack. His luck should be better this time around in Sunday afternoon's Can-Am 500.

Jamie McMurray - McMurray may not be a part of the championship picture, but he's still had one of his better seasons in recent memory. With three Top-5 and 16 Top-10 finishes to this point, he looks poised to finish the season inside the Top 15 of the standings. While Phoenix hasn't held the career-long success that this veteran driver would like, outings have been steadily improving in his most recent seasons. McMurray has six Top-15 finishes, including a runner-up finish in his last seven visits to the Arizona desert. The No. 1 Chevrolet team has been running well all season long, and this veteran driver has proven very resilient. We expect to see McMurray challenging the leaders at Phoenix International Raceway.

Ryan Newman - Newman has been less than consistent throughout this season's Chase. However, his short track performances have been pretty decent. In addition, he's coming off a Top-15 finish in our last short track race at Martinsville Speedway a couple weeks ago. The Richard Childress Racing driver boasts four-career poles and two-career victories at Phoenix International Raceway. In 30-career starts Newman has nabbed 12 Top-10 finishes. One of those was his surprising and improbable victory here in March. Newman took advantage of a late caution, and green-white-checkered restart to steal away the win in NASCAR overtime. He won't likely pull the season sweep of this oval Sunday afternoon, but you can guarantee he'll be racing near the front the pack.

Daniel Suarez - The Joe Gibbs Racing rookie nabbed his first-career Top-10 finish at the Desert Jewel in March of this year, so you know this place is special to the young driver. Suarez has collected 11 more Top-10 finishes since then, so he's proven beyond a doubt that he's more than your run-of-the-mill rookie driver. He's hit a bit of a rough patch of late, but was still good enough to nab Top-15 finishes in both his Martinsville and Texas outings the last two weeks. Suarez has turned in some of his best outings this season on the circuit's short tracks, and he's always shown improvement the second time he visits an oval. It will be hard to top his seventh-place Phoenix finish of March, but he'll certainly have that potential.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson - All the stats point to a great finish this weekend at Phoenix, but we have to step outside of that box for a moment. The last few weeks have turned disastrous for the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing team. What we saw at the conclusion of the Texas race, was clearly a frustrated and tired driver. Larson had the speed to challenge for the win, but poor pit stops and mishaps cost him dearly. It's been a recent pattern for this driver and team. Larson rides a four-race Top-10 drought into Phoenix, and three of those have been devastating DNF's. Again, the stats point to a Top-10 finish at Phoenix International Raceway, but the recent funk of this driver and team is impossible to overlook. Larson makes a very risky fantasy racing play at a time in the season where you can't take such risks.

Clint Bowyer - After a disappointing 36th-place finish at Texas, the season can't end soon enough for this veteran driver and team. Bowyer has just one Top-10 finish in his last five races entering this weekend. It's no secret that the Phoenix oval is not his favorite on the circuit. He has 24-career starts at Phoenix International Raceway over the last 13 seasons. The driver of the No. 14 Ford has only six Top 10's in those starts for a lowly 25-percent rate. It's certainly not one of Bowyer's favorite tracks. The veteran driver has only one Top 10 in his last nine visits to the Arizona flat track. It's best to stay clear of this veteran driver until he gets an offseason break and comes out fresh next year.

Paul Menard - The Richard Childress Racing driver is looking towards the season finale and it just can't seem to get here fast enough. Despite some peaks during the 2017 campaign, the No. 27 Chevy team has struggled during the Chase and of late in particular. Menard has had more success on the larger ovals this season, and the short tracks have presented problems. Phoenix International Raceway has been a track of very limited success for this veteran driver over the years. With only three Top 10's in 21-career starts, he checks in at dismal 14-percent Top-10 rate at PIR. That checks in at a 21.3 average finish for his career. That's close to his last finish at the oval in March, and close to his recent average on small ovals. There's too much at stake this late in the fantasy racing season to gamble a start on Menard at Phoenix.

Chris Buescher - The JTG Daugherty Racing driver has been quite useful this season in deep weekly lineup leagues. His sixth-place finish recently at Kansas, and Top-20 efforts at Talladega and Charlotte during the Chase have proven his utility. However, Buescher is coming to a track that has challenged him tremendously in his brief Monster Energy Cup Series career. He has three-career starts at PIR, and those have netted 30th-, 32nd- and 27th-place finishes. Recent short track outings have been tough in general for the driver of the No. 37 Chevrolet. His last five trips to ovals of one-mile or less in size have yielded an uninspiring 26.2 average finish. Keep Buescher benched for this one, and consider fantasy racing deployment at Homestead the following week.