Bojangles' Southern 500 Preview: The Darlington Stripe

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule.  Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval, and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit.  It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between.  

The course has two distinctly different sets of turns.  Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2.  This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex.  You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car.  All this combined with the 23–25 degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer.  

The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns.  On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility.  Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns.  This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track.  Considering that we just came from the two-groove racing at the half-mile Bristol oval, we're in for a big change this weekend.  The rim-riding action under the lights of Darlington on Sunday night can be as entertaining as any event in the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule.

Nearly all the tracks that the Monster Energy Cup Series has visited to this point will not be of much help in figuring out Darlington Raceway this weekend.  While Darlington is a super speedway, the racing is not like any other super speedway on the circuit.  So this for this race, the loop data from Darlington Raceway will be an extremely important component in developing a list of fantasy racing drivers.  The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true.  There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 14 years or 14 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the Monster Energy Cup Series at Darlington.  Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last five races at the South Carolina oval.  Ford had been shut out since 2006, until this event one year ago when Brad Keselowski surged late into victory lane.  Toyota drivers have had the most success at the facility in the last few seasons.  Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have racked up three of the last five victories at the 1.366-mile oval.  In addition to that, recent Bristol winner and Toyota driver, Denny Hamlin, visited victory lane at Darlington two seasons ago.  The way the No. 11 JGR team is performing right now, that has to put a smile on Hamlin's face coming to South Carolina this weekend.

Five seasons ago we saw Kevin Harvick finally break through to victory lane at the Track Too Tough to Tame with a dominant victory over Dale Earnhardt Jr.  That performance gave Chevrolet it's lone win at the facility in the last five seasons.  Now that Stewart Haas Racing is with Ford, there will have to be a new driver step up if the bowtie brand hopes to break their four-season dry spell at Darlington.  Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch and Kyle Larson will lead the way for this manufacturer.  Larson will likely be the lead contender of this trio.  He's been coming on strong of late, and rides a four-race Top-10 streak into Darlington Raceway this Sunday.  Larson has led over 450 laps in his last three Darlington starts, and looks like a sneaky-good fantasy racing play for the Bojangles' Southern 500.  Assuming this trio of Chevrolet drivers and the other contenders can avoid the "Darlington Stripe," a NASCAR slang term for scraping the outside wall at this historic oval, then anything could happen in this 500-mile event.  Here are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a must-start in fantasy racing leagues this week.  After a brief dry spell in June and part of July, the last few weeks have seen this veteran driver get it together in a big way.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has two victories and two runner-up finishes in the five races prior to this weekend, so he's become the top performing driver in the series over the last month or so.  Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with two wins and 11 Top-10 finishes in 13-career starts.  That works out to a stellar 85-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval.  With over 550 laps led in 13-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame.  Sunday night's 500-mile race could be where the No. 11 Toyota team earns the top seed for the upcoming Chase for the Cup. 

Kevin Harvick – It took the Stewart Haas Racing star several years to finally nab his first Darlington victory, but Harvick finally got that monkey off his back in this event in 2014.  He won the pole position, led 238 laps and made the field look helpless in dominating his way to that win.  For what Harvick lacked in excellence earlier in his career at this oval, he's very quickly making up for in the present.  The veteran driver now has three poles, one win, one runner-up finish and well over 500 laps led in his last five Darlington starts.  This high-groove style of racing is clearly warming up to Harvick and his No. 4 SHR team.  Given his impressive victory at Michigan a couple races ago, we could see him back in victory lane this Sunday night.   

Martin Truex Jr. – The intermediate and larger ovals have been this team's true strength throughout the season.  The Charlotte victory and recent fourth- and third-place finishes at Michigan and Pocono are not lost on us coming to Darlington Raceway.  Truex's Darlington history shows one win and six Top 10's in 13-career starts or a steady 46-percent rate.  However, it's his strong performance and victory in this event three years ago that grabs our attention.  Truex took the lead late in the race from Kevin Harvick and out-lasted the Stewart Haas Racing star to pick up his first-career Darlington win.  Since then, he's led well over 100 laps at the Track Too Tough to Tame.  Truex has the potential to sneak up and win this 500-mile battle under the lights.            

Kyle Larson – The young Chip Ganassi Racing driver will look forward to a return to the larger tracks.  Bristol was an uplifting experience for Larson has he claimed a surprising outside pole and finished sixth-place on those high banks.  The off-weekend has surely helped him to refocus for the Chase.  Larson is still seeking his first victory of the season, and with the playoffs just two races away, that will be a powerful motivator.  He has four Top-10 finishes in five-career starts at Darlington Raceway, and that includes a considerable 456 laps led.  284 of those came in this past season's event alone, so Larson and crew chief Chad Johnston have really figured this oval out.  The high-groove style of racing at this oval plays right into Larson's strengths as a driver, and his current four-race Top-10 streak entering the weekend is a real confidence booster.  He could be the surprise winner this Sunday night.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kyle Busch – Busch's career stats at the Darlington oval may not be his greatest, but it's his most recent work at this oval that we need to pay attention to this weekend.  The driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has been on fire most of the season on the intermediate and larger ovals, and that plays a major factor this weekend at Darlington Raceway.  Busch won this event in 2008, and he's led close to 600 laps for his career at the Darlington track.  Six of his last seven trips to the South Carolina raceway have netted Top-10 finishes, and his start in this event one year ago led to a strong seventh-place finish.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led a lot of laps at the Darlington oval, but he's found it tough securing the victories.  That makes Busch more of a driver outside the top tier of contenders this week.

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star now has 10-career starts at Darlington Raceway, and the results have been considerably improving in recent starts.  Right now, he's looking to build momentum as we approach the Chase for the Cup.  Keselowski is coming off a stellar third-place finish at Bristol, so he'll have some real momentum as we visit an intermediate oval.  Keselowski won this event one year ago for his first-career Darlington victory.  He's led 270 combined laps in his last four Darlington races, and Keselowski has claimed Top 10's in three of those four outings.  His consistency at this oval right now is impressive.  Although we don't believe he'll be able to successfully defend his race crown of one year ago in the Bojangles' Southern 500.

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster is looking to assert his presence among the Chase drivers with the playoffs just around the corner.  With the Chase for the Cup fast-approaching, the desire to win and collect Top 5's is huge as it relates to a good performance in the upcoming playoffs.  We believe this kind of motivation will be good for Elliott and the No. 9 team.  He has four-career starts at Darlington Raceway.  Elliott has nabbed a pair of Top-10 finishes in those outings, with his best-career performance coming in this race one year ago when he brought home a surprising fifth-place finish.  The young driver is riding a three-race Top-10 streak into this Sunday night with impressive performances at both Watkins Glen and Bristol recently. 

Erik Jones – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver makes the solid plays list this weekend, and for good reason.  Jones has been uber-consistent all season long on the intermediate ovals.  Top-10 finishes at Chicago and Kentucky this summer are just the latest examples.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has four Top-5 finishes in the last six events entering the weekend, so Jones has been razor sharp the last month plus.  Jones has two career starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame.  He finished fifth his rookie season, and followed that up with an eighth-place finish in this event one year ago.  He should be equally impressive in this Sunday night's 500-mile battle under the lights.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington who can provide a solid finish

Kurt Busch – After enduring a bit of a July slump, it appears that the CGR No. 1 team is getting pointed back in the right direction and gearing up for the Chase.  Busch is coming off the big Bristol Top 10 before the off-week, and now has two Top-10 finishes in the three prior races coming into this weekend's Bojangles' Southern 500.  Darlington has been a real mixed bag for this veteran driver over the years, but has been turning much more positive in recent seasons.  Busch finished sixth in this event last season, and he posted an even more impressive third-place finish in this event two years ago.  His career-long Top-10 rate still stands at a lowly 36-percent, but don't let that fool you.  Busch will be fast and competitive in Sunday night's race at the Track Too Tough to Tame. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is a bit of a wildcard in this event.  His four-career starts at Darlington Raceway have only netted two Top-15 finishes, so this track has not been a place of vast success for the Penske Racing driver.  However, we have to put that in context.  Blaney has been gradually improving in his Darlington starts, and we only race at this oval once a season.  It takes a bit of time to improve, and this young driver has put in that time.  Blaney has four Top 10's in his last five races coming into South Carolina this week, and one of those was a Top 10 at the high banks of Bristol most recently.  The high groove racing of both these ovals should translate well into this Sunday's battle at Darlington.  We expect a career-best Darlington finish for Blaney this weekend.    

Daniel Suarez – Coming off fifth- and eighth-place finishes at Michigan and Bristol entering the weekend, Suarez is doing everything he can to make the Chase for the Cup.  His spot in the playoff field is not secure, and he needs a big push to lock up a spot in the NASCAR playoffs.  Darlington Raceway has not been a good oval for the young driver.  Suarez has two finishes outside the Top-25 in his two-career starts at this facility.  However, we feel a turning point has been reached this weekend.  Suarez's great effort at Bristol before the off-week cannot be overlooked.  The similarity in the style of racing the two ovals cannot be overlooked as well.  With the No. 41 Ford team riding a two-race Top-10 streak into Sunday night's action, it's hard to bet against Suarez registering another Top-10 finish.          

Ryan Newman – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran is riding a good string of races coming to South Carolina this weekend.  He has one Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in the last five events.  Newman has a great career history at the Track Too Tough to Tame.  He's fetched seven Top-5 and 13 Top-10 finishes there in his 20 starts.  That's a very respectable 35- and 65- percent Top-5 and -10 rate.  Two of his last three Darlington starts have netted Top-10 finishes.  This is an oval for veteran drivers to shine, and the high-line, rim-riding style of racing at this facility plays to Newman's strengths as a driver.        

Chris Buescher – Riding a staggering 13-race Top-20 streak into the weekend certainly speaks to the consistency of Buescher and the No. 37 Chevrolet team.  His three Top-10 finishes included in that span speak to his and the JTG Daugherty Racing team's excellence.  Buescher is fresh off 14th- and 17th- place finishes at Michigan and Bristol, and his average finish across the last five races is 15.0.  Those are respectable marks no matter who you are in NASCAR's top division.  Buescher's three-career Darlington starts have yielded 17th-, 17th- and 13th-place finishes, with the best in his start one year ago.  The big ovals have been this journeyman driver's best tracks this season, so another Top-15 finish should be in the offing for the Bojangles' Southern 500.   

Matt DiBenedetto – This will be the first time this season we've featured DiBenedetto in the sleepers list.  He's normally one of our more frequent "additional plays" drivers that are listed in the comments section, but he's getting an upgrade this weekend.  DiBenedetto has shown recently he can race with the big boys in the sport, and he's finally made it to the big table.  Coming off the brush with victory lane and runner-up finish at Bristol before the off-week, the Leavine Family Racing driver has had a torrid last several weeks.  DiBenedetto has cashed in two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the last five events.  Those include some of the toughest tracks in the sport: Loudon, Watkins Glen and Bristol.  DiBenedetto has yet to leave his mark on Darlington Raceway, but we're certain that will change this Sunday night.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time Monster Energy Cup Series champion is stumbling towards the playoffs right now.  His 19th-place Bristol finish has all but eliminated the No. 48 team from the upcoming playoffs.  Johnson is a three-time winner at the egg-shaped oval, and he has an impressive 60-percent rate of cracking the Top 10 at Darlington Raceway.  However, he's not cracked the Top 10 in his last four starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame.  Those efforts have netted 19th-, 33rd-, 12th- and 39th-place finishes for Johnson and the No. 48 team.  The indicators and recent history look very troubling for this star driver.  It's best to keep Johnson benched for the time being.    

Clint Bowyer – We hate to pick on Bowyer this weekend, but he's been wildly inconsistent this season.  Even coming off the strong seventh-place finish at Bristol before the off-week, it's a gamble playing this veteran driver.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford will look to revive his Chase hopes this Sunday night at Darlington Raceway.  However, history at this track has really not been on Bowyer's side.  In 13-career starts at the South Carolina race track, he has just one Top-10 finish, and many more outside the Top 20.  That's elevated his career average finish at Darlington to 22.8.  Given his poor track history, and the recent struggles, we just can't recommend fantasy racing deployment for Bowyer this weekend.

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has fallen into a slump in recent weeks.  Almirola has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last six races, and he's slipped from 10th- to 13th-place in the point standings over that span.  Coming off disappointing 33rd- and 29th-place finishes at Michigan and Bristol, the No. 10 Ford team is reeling coming to Darlington.  Almirola will hope to stop the bleeding in Sunday night's Bojangles' Southern 500.  However, it will be a tall task for the veteran.  Almirola's seven-career Darlington starts have only yielded two Top-15 finishes vs. five finishes outside the Top 15.  The average finish stands at a lofty 20.0.  Almirola needs to lock it down and turn it around to shore up a Chase berth, but that kind of pressure may not pay off racing at this difficult oval.

Joey Logano – Logano has fallen into a slump over the last month.  He's the highest profile name with the biggest struggles at present.  The Penske Racing star rides a four-race Top-10 drought into Darlington after his power outage and puzzling 16th-place finish at Bristol before the off-week.  Darlington Raceway has been a mixed bag for Logano over his 10-season career. He owns five Top-10 finishes in those 10-career starts for a respectable 50-percent rate.  However, Logano has really labored on the larger ovals the last several weeks.  The high-groove racing we see at Darlington is a similar style to what we just witnessed at Bristol.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford did not look at all good at Bristol.  It could be another evening of struggles in the Bojangles' Southern 500.