This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
Nearly all the tracks that the Monster Energy Cup Series has visited to this point will not be of much help in figuring out Darlington Raceway this weekend. While Darlington is a super speedway, the racing is not like any other super speedway on the circuit. So this for this race, the loop data from Darlington Raceway will be an extremely important component in developing a list of fantasy racing drivers. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 13 years or 13 races at Darlington Raceway.
| DRIVER | AVG FINISH | QUALITY PASSES | FASTEST LAPS | LAPS LED | LAPS IN TOP 15 | RATING | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 5.8 | 416 | 272 | 551 | 3,933 | 110.3 | |
| Kyle Busch | 12.0 | 494 | 264 | 598 | 4,179 | 105.1 | |
| Erik Jones | 5.0 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 347 | 103.1 | |
| Jimmie Johnson | 11.7 | 396 | 266 | 324 | 3,446 | 100.8 | |
| Kevin Harvick | 13.8 | 367 | 269 | 567 | 3,629 | 100.4 | |
| Kyle Larson | 8.8 | 154 | 97 | 172 | 1,177 | 100.2 | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 11.3 | 381 | 218 | 202 | 3,247 | 98.8 | |
| Brad Keselowski | 12.4 | 208 | 128 | 250 | 2,158 | 95.7 | |
| Matt Kenseth | 10.3 | 379 | 148 | 152 | 3,129 | 93.4 | |
| Ryan Newman | 10.8 | 355 | 72 | 173 | 3,368 | 93.1 | |
| Kasey Kahne | 16.8 | 292 | 240 | 329 | 3,018 | 92.9 | |
| Joey Logano | 18.3 | 255 | 56 | 85 | 2,248 | 86.1 | |
| Kurt Busch | 18.1 | 414 | 147 | 84 | 3,369 | 85.3 | |
| Jamie McMurray | 16.4 | 307 | 56 | 87 | 2,903 | 82.9 | |
| Austin Dillon | 12.3 | 84 | 13 | 0 | 552 | 79.1 | |
| Ty Dillon | 13.0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 75.7 | |
| Chase Elliott | 20.7 | 81 | 21 | 0 | 599 | 75.4 | |
| Clint Bowyer | 21.7 | 212 | 79 | 16 | 1,732 | 71.7 | |
| Aric Almirola | 21.0 | 78 | 6 | 0 | 346 | 66.5 | |
| Chris Buescher | 17.0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 62 | 65.3 |
When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the Monster Energy Cup Series at Darlington. Chevrolet and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last seven races at the South Carolina oval. Ford has been shut out since 2005-06 when Greg Biffle took the Southern 500 two seasons in a row. Toyota drivers have had the most success at the facility in the last few seasons. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have racked up three of the last five victories at the 1.366-mile oval. In addition to that, Toyota driver Martin Truex Jr. visited victory lane there two seasons ago.
Four seasons ago we saw Kevin Harvick finally break through to victory lane at the Track Too Tough to Tame with a dominant victory over Dale Earnhardt Jr. That performance gave Chevrolet it's lone win at the facility in the last four seasons. Now that Stewart Haas Racing is with Ford, there's at least some reasonable hope for that brand to break its long dry spell at Darlington. Ford is looking to snap a 11-year winless drought at the speedway. Harvick leads the way for this camp, with one-career Darlington victory, but we believe his teammate, Kurt Busch, could be nearly as dangerous in this event as the No. 41 team has been coming on stronger in recent races. Considering how well the teams of Harvick and Busch are performing, we wouldn't rule either of them out in vying for the victory this weekend. Assuming this duo of Ford drivers and the other contenders can avoid the "Darlington Stripe," a NASCAR slang term for scraping the outside wall at this historic oval, then anything could happen in this 500-mile event. Here are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win
Kevin Harvick - It took the Stewart Haas Racing star several years to finally nab his first Darlington victory, but Harvick finally got that monkey off his back in this event four years ago. He won the pole position, led 238 laps and made the field look helpless in dominating his way to that win. For what Harvick lacked in excellence earlier in his career at this oval, he's very quickly making up for in the present. The veteran driver now has three poles, one win, one runner-up finish and well over 500 laps led in his last four Darlington starts. This high-groove style of racing is clearly warming up to Harvick and his No. 4 SHR team. Given his dominant victory at Michigan a couple races ago, we could him back in victory lane this Sunday night.
Kyle Busch - Busch's career stats at the Darlington oval may not be the greatest, but it's his most recent work at this oval that we need to pay attention to this weekend. The driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has been on fire most of the season on the intermediate and larger ovals, and that plays a major factor this weekend at Darlington Raceway. Busch won this event in 2008, and he's led close to 600 laps for his career at the Darlington track. Five of his last six trips to the South Carolina raceway have netted Top-10 finishes, and his start in this event one year ago led to a brilliant runner-up finish. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led a lot of laps at the Darlington oval, but he's found it tough securing the victories. That could all change in the Bojangles' Southern 500.
Martin Truex Jr. - The intermediate and larger ovals have been this team's true strength throughout the season. The recent wins at Kentucky and at Pocono are not lost on us coming to Darlington Raceway. Truex's Darlington history shows one win and six Top 10s in 12-career starts or a steady 50-percent rate. However, it's his strong performance and victory in this event two years ago that grabs our attention. Truex took the lead late in the event from Kevin Harvick and out-lasted the Stewart Haas Racing star to pick up his first-career Darlington win. Never count out the No. 78 Furniture Row racing team on these intermediate ovals, and Truex now has the winning resume and three-race Top-10 streak at Darlington Raceway.
Kyle Larson - The young Chip Ganassi Racing driver will look forward to a return to the larger tracks. Bristol was an uplifting experience for Larson has he claimed a surprising pole position and finished runner-up on those high banks. The off-weekend has surely helped him to refocus for the Chase. Larson is still seeking his first victory of the season, and with the playoffs just two races away, that will be a powerful motivator. He has three Top-10 finishes in four-career starts at Darlington Raceway, and that includes a considerable 172 laps led. 124 of those came in this past season's event alone, so Larson and crew chief Chad Johnston are gradually figuring this place out. The high-groove style of racing at this oval plays right into Larson's strengths as a driver. He could be the surprise winner this Sunday night.
Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is an x-factor in fantasy racing leagues this week. After an up-and-down performance early in the season, the last few weeks have seen this veteran driver get it together in a big way. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has two pole positions, one outside pole and two Top-10 finishes in the four races prior to this weekend, so he's found more speed in the past month. Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with two wins and 10 Top-10 finishes in 12-career starts. That works out to a stellar 83-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval. With 551 laps led in 12-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame. Sunday night's 500-mile race could be where the season continues to turn positive heading into the Chase for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota.
Chase Elliott - The budding Hendrick Motorsports star is looking to assert his presence to the "big 3" with the playoffs just around the corner. With the Chase for the Cup fast-approaching, the desire to win and collect Top 5s is huge as it relates to a good performance in the upcoming playoffs. We believe this kind of motivation will be good for Elliott and the No. 24 team. He has three-career starts at Darlington Raceway. Elliott's rookie outing was a tough crash and DNF, however, he improved dramatically in his last two Darlington starts with 10th- and 11th-place finishes. This driver and team have been on a tear the last six weeks, and ride a five-race Top-10 streak into South Carolina this weekend. The 112-laps led and third-place finish at Bristol are still fresh in our memory despite the off-week.
Erik Jones - The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver makes the solid plays list this weekend, and for good reason. Jones has been uber-consistent all season long on the intermediate ovals. Top-10 finishes at Chicago and Kentucky this summer are just the latest examples. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has three Top-5 finishes in the last four events entering the weekend, so Jones has been razor sharp the last month. He made his Darlington debut in this event one year ago, and did not disappoint. Jones piloted his No. 77 Toyota for Furniture Row to a surprising fifth-place finish. Darlington is not an easy oval for rookie drivers, and last year Jones bucked that trend. He should be equally impressive in this Sunday night's 500-mile battle under the lights.
Kurt Busch - After enduring a spring slump, it appears that the SHR No. 41 team is getting pointed back in the right direction and gearing up for the Chase. Busch is coming off the big Bristol win before the off-week, and rides a strong six-race Top-10 streak into this weekend's Bojangles' Southern 500. Darlington has been a real mixed bag for this veteran driver over the years, but has been turning much more positive since his move into the No. 41 Ford. Busch finished sixth in this event in 2015, and he posted an even more impressive third-place finish in this event one year ago. His career-long Top-10 rate still stands at a lowly 33-percent, but don't let that fool you. Busch will be fast and competitive in Sunday night's race at the Track Too Tough to Tame.
Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Darlington who can provide a solid finish
Brad Keselowski - The Penske Racing star now has nine-career starts at Darlington Raceway, and the results have been more down than up. The driver of the No. 2 Ford will look to up his game considerably in Sunday night's Bojangles' Southern 500. Right now, he's looking to build momentum as we approach the Chase for the Cup. Keselowski is coming off a subpar 16th-place finish at Bristol, so he'll have some real urgency as we visit an intermediate oval. With finishes of third- and second-place at Kentucky and Michigan recently, the team's performance has at least been dialed-in on the larger ovals. He's led 250 combined laps in his last three Darlington races, and Keselowski has claimed Top 10s in two of those three outings. His consistency at this oval is unquestionable, but his ceiling is low.
Ryan Blaney - Blaney is a bit of a wildcard in this event. His three-career starts at Darlington Raceway have only netted one Top-15 finish, so this track has not been a place of vast success for the Penske Racing driver. However, we have to put that in context. Those three prior starts were for a different team other than his present No. 12 Ford team. Blaney rides a two-race Top-10 streak into South Carolina this week, and he's not finished outside the Top 15 since Daytona in early July. The driver of the No. 12 Ford's recent outings at Michigan and Bristol have been stellar. The high groove racing of both those ovals should translate well into this Sunday's battle at Darlington. We expect a career-best Darlington finish for Blaney this weekend.
Aric Almirola - The Stewart Haas Racing veteran will make his first Darlington start with his new No. 10 Ford team this weekend. We're certain that Almirola is looking forward to the experience. A quick look at his track history shows just one Top-15 and four Top-20 finishes in six starts. That comes in at a round average of 21.0 finish. Much like other race weekends this season, we expect Sunday to be a different story for this driver. Some tough luck as hit this SHR driver in recent weeks, but Almirola should rebound nicely at Darlington Raceway. Intermediate ovals have been his best tracks on the circuit this season. Recent eighth- and seventh-place finishes at Kentucky and Michigan bode well for this race. He's set a lot of personal bests at various tracks this season, and we expect Sunday night to be no different.
Ryan Newman - The Richard Childress Racing veteran is riding a good string of races coming to South Carolina this weekend. He has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in the last five events. Newman has a great career history at the Track Too Tough to Tame. He's fetched seven Top-5 and 13 Top-10 finishes there in his 19 starts. That's a very respectable 37- and 68- percent Top-5 and -10 rate. In this event one year ago Rocket Man peddled his Chevrolet to a strong seventh-place finish in the Bojangles' Southern 500. The high-line, rim-riding style of racing at this facility plays to Newman's strengths as a driver.
Austin Dillon - Coming off fourth- and 13th-place finishes at Michigan and Bristol entering the weekend, Dillon is gathering some momentum for the Chase. His spot in the playoff field is secure thanks to the Daytona 500 victory, but he'd like to be racing well for the fast-approaching Chase for the Cup. Fortunately, Darlington Raceway has been a good oval for the young driver. Dillon owns one Top 10 and three Top 15s in four-career starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Last season he piloted the No. 3 Chevrolet to a brilliant fourth-place finish in the Bojangles' Southern 500. We don't expect that type of success for the Richard Childress Racing driver this Sunday, but we wouldn't rule out another borderline Top-10 finish at this challenging oval.
Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has been racing hard to improve the No. 6 Ford team over the summer. The results have been pleasant to see. He nabbed three Top-20 finishes between Kentucky and Pocono. Darlington Raceway should provide the No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing team with an opportunity to crack the Top 15. Kenseth enters this event with a strong 93.4 driver rating at the historic raceway. His accomplishments include one Darlington victory and 12 Top-10 finishes (50-percent rate). Kenseth's 19 years of racing experience at this track should be a big boost to a resource-challenged race team. Don't be surprised to see the veteran driver racing on the lead lap and challenging the Top 15 in the closing laps of this 500-mile battle.
Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week
Jimmie Johnson - The seven-time Monster Energy Cup Series champion is inconsistent at best right now. His Bristol Top 10 was a predictable and pleasant performance, but the larger ovals have been a challenge of late. Johnson is a three-time winner at the egg-shaped oval, and he has an impressive 63-percent rate of cracking the Top 10 at Darlington Raceway. However, he's not cracked the Top 10 in his last three starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Those efforts have netted 19th-, 33rd and 12th-place finishes for Johnson and the No. 48 team. The indicators and recent history look very troubling for this star driver. It's best to keep Johnson benched for the time being.
Clint Bowyer - Bowyer hit a bit of a skid during July with poor outings, but he's spent much of August digging out of a hole. It wasn't for a lack of speed, but had more to do with bad luck and some poor decisions for the veteran driver. The driver of the No. 14 Ford will look to hit the reset button this Sunday night at Darlington Raceway. However, history at this track has really not been on Bowyer's side. In 12-career starts at the South Carolina race track, he has just one Top-10 finish, and many more outside the Top 20. That's elevated his career average finish at Darlington to 21.7. Given his poor track history, and some recent struggles, we just can't recommend fantasy racing deployment for Bowyer this weekend.
William Byron - Darlington Raceway has always been tough on young drivers. The Darlington Stripe eventually finds them at some point during the night, if not more than one encounter with the outside wall. Byron will be making his first-career Cup start at the Track Too Tough to Tame Sunday night. We fear that his one Xfinity Series start at this oval won't do enough to temper the risk in the Bojangles' Southern 500. This will definitely be a "learning on the job" experience for the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet this weekend. That makes it a super risky proposition for fantasy racing expectations. You're best served to keep Byron on the bench this week, and keep him in reserve for an oval he's seen earlier this season when the Chase rolls around.
A.J. Allmendinger - The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet is experiencing his toughest season in recent memory, one that has actually put him on the hot seat for next season. With just three Top 10s so far, and a 24th-place points standing entering the weekend, Allmendinger is struggling coming into Darlington week. The challenging Darlington Raceway has exacted a toll on the veteran driver over the previous 10 seasons. He has no Top-10 finishes and just one Top-15 finish in those 10 prior starts. The average finish checks in at a lofty 26.5 at this tough track. Allmendinger's last three Darlington efforts have yielded a pair of 23rd-place finishes and a disappointing 34th-place finish last season. This is not a weekend to roll the dice on the Dinger.
