Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview: World's Fastest Half Mile

This weekend we return to the famous short track in Bristol, Tennessee for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. The high-contact, short track action under the lights is one of the most popular races in the schedule. It's been a long, hard haul since race number eight of the season, which was the last time NASCAR's top division visited Thunder Valley. Since that time we've seen Martin Truex Jr. dominate the championship standings lead for the most part, with a mild challenge from both William Byron and Denny Hamlin. We've seen a non-NASCAR regular win a race (Shane van Gisbergen). We've seen Michael McDowell's surprise win at the Indy Grand Prix circuit. We've also seen Chris Buescher's upset victory at Daytona as well as his three victories leading right up to the Chase playoffs. So a lot has happened since the NASCAR Cup Series last visited the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway. 

This visit to Bristol Motor Speedway will be different than the recent past. The late-summer Bristol race is no longer a part of the regular season schedule, but now makes up the first segment of the Chase for the Cup playoffs. This is the third race of the Chase and the cutoff to advance into the second round of the NASCAR playoffs. To advance, drivers simply have to win or be below the cut line of the Top 12 in the championship points. That added urgency to advance will really crank up the pressure for this 500-lap battle. Tensions will be high, and so will be the pressure to advance and stay in the battle for the 2023 championship.    

In preparing our fantasy race teams this week, we'll need to take a close look at the last 18 years at Bristol Motor Speedway in order to collect some recent data on the drivers. The loop stats from these 34 races will be very useful. This span will cover Bristol's recent history and should bear some great data. In forming this week's driver list we'll also pay some attention to current hot streaks. Drivers who raced well at Richmond should carry that momentum into the World's Fastest Half Mile this Saturday night. Here are the loop stats for the top-performing Bristol drivers, sorted by driver rating.  

This season's first race at Bristol Motor Speedway in April of this year, was another installment on the dirt. The speedway brought in hundreds of truckloads of clay and dirt and filled the normally paved short track with dirt fill. It was the third-straight season NASCAR has converted the half-mile paved oval into a dirt track. There were 37 cars on the track that day, but it would evolve into a two-driver shootout. Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick would dominate with Bell eventually coming out on top. However, there were many surprises in the finishing order due to the unusual conditions and racing surface. There was an abundance of caution flags (14 total) due to accidents over just 250 scheduled laps. From our standpoint of examining this weekend's Bass Pro Shops Night Race, the race earlier this season at BMS is really not of much help. In fact, we believe it skews any historical examination or statistics. For our purposes it's likely more helpful to follow the loop data in the table above and focus on the recent Bristol races, excluding the last three on dirt. Keep that in mind as we roll forward with our prognostications below.

If we look back at the previous four seasons of racing on the concrete at Bristol, we see that each of the three manufacturers have reached victory lane. Ford is leading the way with three victories, followed by Toyota with two and Chevrolet bringing up the rear with one. With this race serving as the cutoff to the Round of 12 in the Chase, we're going to see a lot of contact and pushing this week. Manners will go out the window, and it will be a mad scramble to advance in the Chase for the Cup. Let's take a look at the historical loop stats and recent hot streaks and see if we can clear up the picture, and give you the drivers you need this weekend to conquer the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson won this event two years ago to post his first-career Bristol Motor Speedway victory. That performance coupled with two runner-up finishes at BMS in 2018 make the Hendrick Motorsports star a very dangerous driver on the high banks of this short track. He rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into this weekend's action, including 850 career laps led at the World's Fastest Half Mile. Larson has two wins and four Top-5 finishes this season on the circuit's short tracks, so the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is currently capable of pulling off a big performance. With the playoffs well underway, the importance of a win at Bristol can't be understated. Larson will drive with utmost purpose in this 500-lap battle under the lights.

Denny Hamlin – Coming off two runner-up finishes in the last four events, Hamlin is poised to make a big splash at Bristol this Saturday night. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is a two-time Bristol winner and most recently in 2019. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 at a strong 28-percent rate and he's led close to 900 laps for his career at this half-mile oval. He tends to step it up a notch for the events under the lights, so optimism in that trend should be even higher. The Joe Gibbs Racing star qualified fourth on the grid and finished ninth-place in this event one year ago. With the next round of the playoffs approaching, Hamlin is capable of a statement win this weekend in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been racing extremely well of late but is coming off a bit of bad luck and unfortunate finish at Kansas Speedway last weekend. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has been very consistent in 2023 on the circuit's short tracks. His impressive win at Richmond a few weeks ago was backed up by a Top-10 performance over the summer at Dover. Buescher won this event one year ago and has two Top 10's in his last three Bristol Motor Speedway starts. Since moving to Roush in 2020, it's been a complete reversal of this veteran driver's fortunes at this historic short track. The No. 17 Ford team is so hot right now you can't count Buescher out of contending for the win at any track in the series.

William Byron – Byron has been on a good roll the last month. He won at Watkins glen and has three Top 10's in the last four events leading up to Bristol. Byron and the No. 24 team have been sharp on short tracks this season. The young driver grabbed a win early this season at Phoenix and collected a Top-5 finish at Dover during the summer. Bristol Motor Speedway has held marginal success for the young driver, but the good news is that it's all come in his last four starts at the half-mile oval. Byron hast three Top 10's in his last four Bristol starts, including a pair of third-place finishes in each of the last two seasons. He'll factor in the outcome of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – With a win and runner-up finish in the last two races, the No. 45 Toyota team has hit their stride at the right time with the playoffs underway. Reddick took an impressive, late-race victory this past week at Kansas Speedway. He'll now set his sights on the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway. The young 23XI Racing driver finished runner-up on the Bristol dirt earlier this season. He also has three Top-10 finishes on short tracks this year. That average finish stands at an 11.7 which is a pretty sharp performance on the bull rings. Reddick won the pole and led 81 laps in his last short track performance at Richmond a few weeks ago. He looks poised to crack the Top 5 Saturday night at Bristol.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is in a bit of jeopardy of not advancing in the playoffs. However, we expect the Stewart Haas Racing star to pull out all the stops at one his more consistent short tracks. Bristol is more of a Top-10 oval for this driver, despite his victory in this event three years ago and runner-up finish of two years ago. He's a three-time Bristol winner. Harvick has 22-career Top-10 finishes at Bristol Motor Speedway and that checks in at a strong 52-percent rate. He rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into Saturday night's action. With this driver and team looking to advance into round 2 of the Chase, we expect Harvick to peddle hard in this 500-lap battle. 

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has a long history at Bristol Motor Speedway. Keselowski has three wins, the most recent in 2020, in 24-career starts at the Tennessee short track. Recent outings have yielded Top-10 finishes in three of the last five starts and nearly 400 laps led during that span. Keselowski has been pretty dialed-in at BMS in this most recent span of races. Short tracks have been a good set of ovals for the No. 6 Ford team this season. Keselowski has four Top-10 finishes in the six events (67-percent) and a strong 11.8 average finish. Last time out in Richmond a few weeks ago, the veteran driver led 102 laps and finished sixth-place in the Cook Out 400.

Joey Logano – Logano has been warming up coming into the playoffs with two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the last four races. The Penske Racing star recently dominated at the Richmond short track with a strong fourth-place finish in the Cook Out 400. Logano has two-career victories at Bristol Motor Speedway, with the latest as recently as 2015. His 39-percent career Top-10 rate is a little lower than what we'd like to see for a solid play, but Logano's 750+ career laps led at BMS illustrate his ability to race out front here. The driver of the No. 22 Penske Racing Ford is quite capable of pulling a strong performance in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Bristol & solid upside

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet rides a three-race Top-10 streak into Bristol this weekend, despite not participating in the playoffs. Elliott has 12-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and they've yielded six Top-10 finishes or a 50-percent Top-10 rate. Our major reason for optimism this weekend for the Hendrick Motorsports driver is twofold. Elliott has been a steady performer on short tracks this season with a strong 11.5 average finish. The secondary reason is that he's riding a lot of momentum into the Bass Pro Shops Night Race with his current Top-10 streak. There is great potential for Elliott this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway.     

Kyle Busch – The eight-time Bristol winner has had his way in recent trips to the Tennessee short track. Busch enters the weekend with one win and four Top 5's in his last six Bristol starts. The Richard Childress Racing star has led well over 350 laps combined during this recent span. These recent outings have only bolstered what is already an amazing career racing record at this historic short track. In addition to Busch's eight wins, he has 14 Top-5 finishes (42-percent) and led well over 2,500 laps. With a ticket to the next round of the Chase for the Cup in the balance, we expect Busch to step up his game this Saturday night. He'll race among the leaders at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Christopher Bell – Bell is coming off a pole position and strong eighth-place finish at Kansas this past week. He'd endured some challenges in the preceding two events, but rebounded well at the Kansas oval. Bell will now sharpen his focus on a Bristol short track that has given him some good performances in his brief NASCAR career. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has grabbed two Top-10 finishes in four Cup Series starts at BMS and he owns one win and one runner-up finish in four-career Xfinity Series starts at the famous half-mile oval. Bell is having a very good season on the short tracks, and he should challenge the Top 10 in Saturday night's playoff race under the lights at Bristol.     

Erik Jones – Jones is not a part of the NASCAR playoffs, but he's peaking at the right time of year. The Legacy Motor Club veteran is riding a two-race Top-10 streak into Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend and looking to keep things rolling this Saturday night. Jones owns very respectable Bristol stats with five Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts and a decent 13.3 average finish. The veteran driver has really shown a skill at racing this high-banked short track over the years. While this season the short tracks have not held a lot of success for the No. 43 Chevrolet team, Jones is riding the kind of momentum that could carry him to a Top-10 finish in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Ross Chastain – Chastain has seemingly set himself up to advance in the playoffs. Driving into the Round of 12 of the Chase is going to rest mainly on this veteran driver's shoulders for now. Chastain has been an up-and-down performer in 2023 on the short tracks with two Top 5's (33-percent) and a decent 14.8 average finish to go along with 146 laps led. There's a lot of fantasy racing upside with the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 team this Saturday night. Chastain earned a strong sixth-place finish in his last start on the Bristol concrete surface. That was his career-best finish at the track to this point. We're willing to bet Chastain can challenge the Top 10 again in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has grabbed ninth- and 12th-place finishes to start the Chase and is in a bit of jeopardy to advance into the next round of the playoffs. We're betting that motivation spurs him to a better performance this Saturday night. Bristol Motor Speedway has been an oval of inconsistency for the young driver. With only five-career Top 10's, Blaney's Top-10 rate at BMS is just 39-percent. However, four of those have come in his last seven starts at the Tennessee short track. Blaney has led a surprising 493 laps at Bristol in his brief Cup Series career. He normally brings good speed into these short track races as evidenced by his second-, seventh- and third-place finishes this year at Phoenix, Martinsville and Dover. It should all add up to a Top-10 finish Saturday night.              

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Austin Cindric – Of the full-time drivers in the Cup Series, Cindric has had perhaps the most difficult time on the circuit's short tracks. With six finishes outside the Top 25, he carries an inflated 27.2 average finish on the bull rings into Bristol this Saturday night. The Penske Racing youngster has just one-career start on the Bristol asphalt. That was a subpar 20th-place finish in this event one year ago. Considering Cindric's recent struggles (no Top-30 finishes in the last three races) we believe this driver and team are one to avoid in all fantasy racing formats this week.    

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been pretty good on short tracks this season with two wins and four Top 10's. However, Bristol has always been the Achilles Heel track for this veteran driver over the years. Truex's career numbers at Bristol Motor Speedway are less-than-inspiring. He has only four Top-10 finishes in 32 starts. All that toil has lowered his Bristol Top-10 rate to a lowly 13-percent. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota could jump up and surprise this weekend, but we would put those odds as very slim. Certainly, in weekly lineup leagues, you would be best served to save his starts for later in the Chase at more friendly intermediate ovals.         

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been kind of pedestrian at best on the short tacks his season, but it's been trending the wrong way more recently. His most recent short track effort was an unimpressive 18th-place finish a few weeks ago at Richmond. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has 12-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and just three Top-10 finishes (25-percent) to his credit. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has just a 21.4 average finish at the World's Fastest Half Mile. All things considered, Bowman is not likely a safe or productive driver to deploy in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – It's been an inconsistent summer for Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team. With only one Top-10 finish in the last eight races, he comes to Bristol in scramble mode this weekend. Stenhouse is coming off a disappointing 23rd-place finish at Kansas this past weekend. Bristol Motor Speedway has typically been a track of success for Stenhouse, but his level of performance at this half-mile oval dropped off a cliff four seasons ago. His last seven starts at Bristol Motor Speedway have yielded just one Top-20 finish and that's dropped his Top-10 percentage at the track to just 33-percent. Things have been so frustrating that Stenhouse has failed to finish four of his last five starts at the Tennessee short track. It's better to look elsewhere for your fantasy racing league help this week.