Bank of America ROVAL 400 Preview: Playoff Road Race

We've reached the cut for the second round in the Chase for the Cup. This weekend's event at Charlotte Motor Speedway is race number six of 10 in the playoff format which crowns the NASCAR Cup Series champion. This event signals the end of the Round of 12 as four drivers will be eliminated from the field of playoff drivers after this race. For this very crucial race NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway offer the sixth annual road course race at the North Carolina oval. Five seasons ago the owners of Charlotte Motor Speedway constructed a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course that incorporates most of the 1.5-mile oval and additional twists and turns on the infield for what the track calls a "roval" course. The configuration and type is very similar to the road course that Daytona International Speedway uses for IMSA. This relatively new wrinkle in the Chase lineup of tracks will be a real curveball for the drivers this weekend, as most are out of their comfort zone on a road course as opposed to a true oval. The fact that most of the field raced on the Roval the last five seasons will help with some familiarity, but it's still a major departure from the weekly NASCAR track. When we add the newness of this event and course with the fact that it's a "cut race" in the Chase, the pressure to finish well will be enormous. Those drivers that don't find bad luck, or don't crack under the pressure will move on in the playoffs.   

Since this is just the sixth race at a new NASCAR course, we have very little in the way of historical data to examine. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely unarmed with numbers. We do have the loop data from the last five seasons at the Charlotte Roval. Those numbers along with the historically strong road course drivers will form the backbone of our fantasy racing picks this weekend. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from last five Bank of America Roval 400's, sorted by driver rating.

Since we're running just our sixth race on the Roval, we're going to be somewhat light on historical records this weekend. We have five races to examine, and that data while helpful can't be the entirety of our analysis. The road course at Charlotte will continue carving out its reputation and history this weekend. If we look back on last season's Bank of America Roval 400, we saw a surprising performance by Christopher Bell to win his first victory at the Roval. He would lead just 2 of the 112 laps, but overcome Kevin Harvick in overtime to secure the win down the stretch in that race. Thanks to the constantly changing tides of road racing, we could have another new winner to the track this Sunday afternoon. 

In addition to the last five races on the Roval, we're going to rely heavily on the road course statistics of 2023. NASCAR will be staging their sixth and final race of the season on a road course this weekend. When we combine that much road course action with the drivers who have succeeded doing it, this becomes some of the most important data we can examine for this race. With so many unknowns, there are sure to be some surprises and even some bad days for some of the NASCAR stars. We won't be surprised by anything we see this Sunday in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. So fasten your seat belts and get ready for some excitement, as NASCAR throws a major curveball at the competitors for this sixth race of the Chase for the Cup. The following are our picks for fantasy racing success at the Charlotte Roval.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – While he's been winless on the road racing circuit for a while now, Elliott cannot be discounted going into this weekend's race on the ROVAL. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a seven-time winner on NASCAR road courses and he's a two-time winner of this event. Elliott's 94 laps led at the Charlotte road circuit lead all drivers and his 60-percent Top-10 rate here is nothing to overlook. His last win on a similar track was at Road America way back in 2021, but we cannot put a lot into that statistic. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a very skilled driver at this form of racing and he knows what it takes to win on the Charlotte Roval. He's practically a must start in all formats of weekly lineup fantasy racing.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is in precarious position for advancement in the Chase playoffs coming to Charlotte this week. The 23XI Racing youngster comes to the Charlotte Roval this weekend looking for his fourth-career road course victory. Reddick snagged a win at COTA earlier this season and he's racked up three Top-10 finishes in the five road racing events to date in 2023. The No. 45 Toyota team really has this style of racing pegged in the new generation stock car. Reddick finished runner-up in this event two years ago and has two Top 10's in his three-career starts at the Charlotte Roval. With playoff advancement hanging in the balance, we're willing to bet we see Reddick on his "A" game this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch – After last week's disappointment at Talladega we have to be very reserved about Busch this week. He limps into Charlotte in last place in the Chase playoff standings, however, that's exactly what could make him very dangerous in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. Road Racing has never really been Busch's best with the exception of a couple different tracks like Watkins Glen. The 2023 season and move to Richard Childress Racing has seen a reversal of his fortunes on these style tracks. Busch has grabbed three Top-5 finishes on the road racing circuit, including a pair of runner-up finishes at COTA and Sonoma. In this event one year ago, Busch peddled his former JGR Toyota to brilliant third-place finish on the ROVAL. That was his second consecutive Top-5 finish on this track, and illustrates how he's solved racing here.

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has been strong all season on the road racing circuit. Byron nabbed a win last time out at Watkins Glen and two Top-5 finishes. Most importantly, he's qualified well for these races and led a lot of laps. He has a pole position, outside pole and 94 laps led on the road circuit in 2023. In Byron's five starts at the Charlotte Roval he's captured a pole position, outside pole (last season), grabbed 80 laps led and collected two Top-10 finishes. A lot of things have been going right for Byron and the No. 24 team this season (6 wins to-date). It wouldn't be at all shocking to see Byron win Sunday on the Charlotte Roval.    

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is in a good points position coming to Charlotte this week, as his win at Talladega last Sunday has locked him into the Round of 8. The Penske Racing star won the first-ever race on the Roval in 2018 and has been a very consistent performer here ever since. Blaney boasts 40-laps led, one win, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his five starts at the Charlotte road course. That equates to a strong 9.8 average finish that even rivals Chase Elliott's stats at the Roval. Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team have been decent road circuit performers this season in the new generation stock car. He finished Top 15 at the Indy GP circuit and most recently grabbed a Top 10 at Watkins Glen. This is probably Blaney's favorite road course, so we should see him battling among the leaders Sunday afternoon.          

Joey Logano – Logano is coming off some bad luck, but good speed at Talladega and looking to rebound at the Charlotte Roval. This is much of the reason why we've moved him into the solid plays list this week. The good news is that Logano is strong at this particular road circuit. The driver of the No. 22 Ford owns one Top-5 (2020 runner-up finish) and four Top-10 finishes in his five Roval starts. That works out to a dazzling 9.4 average finish across the span. Logano has been decent on road circuits this season with three Top 10's in the five events to-date and a solid 10th-place finish most recently at the Glen. Despite the playoffs being a non-issue for this driver and team, Logano should turn in a strong performance.     

Christopher Bell – With playoff advancement hopes still alive and well after Talladega, Bell comes to the Charlotte Roval looking to extend his 2023 playoff drive into the Round of 8. It will take a strong performance by Bell and some luck regarding the other playoff hopefuls to race his way into the next round. Fortunately for the No. 20 Toyota team, this young driver has some road racing skill. Bell won this event one year ago and has two Top-10 finishes in three starts at the Charlotte road course. He also has three Top 10's (Sonoma, Indy GP & Watkins Glen) on the road racing circuit this season. The 14.0 average finish is at a pretty respectable level. With everything on the line we expect Bell to turn in a gutsy performance this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Larson – Larson's victory in this event two years ago sort of come out of the blue. He had led a number of laps in prior starts but just had never put it all together to challenge for the win at the Roval. Larson solved that puzzle in the 2021 battle at Charlotte. It was one of his instrumental victories that led to the Cup Series championship that season for the No. 5 Chevrolet team. Larson has been strong on the winding tracks this season with three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for a respectable 12.0 average finish. This is typical of Larson's career on these style tracks. He's sort of an up-and-down performer, but he brings Top-10 potential to most of these style tracks. Currently sitting an uncertain seventh-place in the playoff standings, we guarantee he'll be in top form in the Bank of America ROVAL 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been arguably the most consistent performer on road circuits the last two seasons and since the introduction of the new generation car. Buescher has logged two Top-5 and nine Top-10 finishes across the last 10 road racing events to post an impeccable 7.3 average finish in this style of racing. That coincides nicely with his last outing at the Charlotte Roval. Buescher earned a strong sixth-place finish in this event one year ago. He now carries a two-race ROVAL Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. Buescher should put his skills on display again in this sixth race of the Chase for the Cup.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been a consistent road course performer in 2023. Despite winning three pole positions this season on these style tracks Hamlin has only managed just a 16.8 average finish thus far on the winding circuits. However, the playoffs are well underway and Hamlin still has a fighting chance of advancing. That factor alone should spur Hamlin to a good finish Sunday afternoon. Fortunately for the No. 11 Toyota team, Hamlin's most recent performance on a road course was a good experience. The veteran driver won the pole and finished runner-up at Watkins Glen a few weeks ago. As it pertains to the ROVAL, Hamlin has won two of the last three pole positions here and he's grabbed one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes in the last three starts. He won't be a world beater this weekend, but he should be competitive.

Alex Bowman – Another streaky driver this season has been Bowman and his No. 48 team. The road racing circuit has yielded two Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes in 2023, but has lacked the consistency to be a completely reliable fantasy racing play. But in Bowman's favor, he has been a top performer thus far at the Charlotte Roval. His four prior starts at the track have claimed two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes for a dazzling 6.0 average finish. The ROVAL is a different animal than most road courses, and it's not unusual to see certain drivers to excel at racing here as opposed to more traditional road circuits. We believe that is the case with Bowman. He is a track specific fantasy play for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400.      

Kevin Harvick – Harvick sort of falls into the same category as Alex Bowman (above), he's a very track specific play this week. Coming off a disappointing finish at Talladega, he should rebound nicely at the ROVAL this week. Harvick and the No. 4 Ford team aren't our typical driver that comes to mind in road racing. However, the ROVAL really seems to be to his liking. The Stewart Haas Racing star qualifies well here (11.6 average start) and finishes well here (11.6 average finish). The two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes as well as 38 laps led he's collected at the Charlotte Roval stand out. In this event one year ago he pulled off a masterful drive from 22nd-place on the starting grid to finish runner-up to Christopher Bell.

Michael McDowell – McDowell has already pulled a shock-victory once this season on the road circuits. His dominant win at the Indy Grand Prix circuit came as a shock to everyone except McDowell. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has always been a skilled road course performer, but he's taken it up a few notches since the introduction of the new generation stock car. McDowell's last 10 road racing efforts have netted 86 laps led, one win, two Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes. The average finish is coming in at a strong 11.5 across that 10-race span. While McDowell hasn't had the type of success at the ROVAL we'd like to see, we believe he can turn in a career-best performance there this weekend.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has always been a top performer in road racing, and that success has translated reasonably well into the new Next-Gen car. His last 10 starts on road racing circuits have netted three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes for a stout 12.8 average finish. He is prone to the occasional mistake and bad finish, which pulls that average higher, but his homerun potential in this style of racing is unmistakable. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet has two Top-10 finishes in three-career Cup starts at the Charlotte Roval. In addition, he's grabbed four-straight victories in four Xfinity Series starts on the ROVAL. That type of domination shows his comfort level with this circuit.  Allmendinger knows this facility like the back of his hand and should have a very high ceiling for the Bank of America ROVAL 400.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran is in some troubled playoff waters coming to North Carolina this week. Chastain is 11th out of 12 in the Chase standings and facing possible elimination after the Bank of America ROVAL 400. The pressure will be on, and it a big way for this driver and team. Chastain has had his struggles on the Charlotte Roval with no Top-20 finishes in his four-career starts and a poor 26.5 average finish. In addition, he's struggled to find any consistency this season on the road racing circuit. Chastain has two Top 10's in five starts and a subpar 14.2 average finish. All the indicators point to a disappointing performance in the Bank of America ROVAL 400.

Aric Almirola – Almirola has had some fantasy racing utility on the bigger ovals this season. However, road racing hasn't been his cup of tea in 2023 nor really through his career. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has three Top-15 finishes vs. four finishes outside the Top 30 in his last 10 road course starts. That works out to an inflated, inconsistent 26.3 average finish across the span. The Charlotte Roval has been a track of mixed results for the driver of the No. 10 Ford. Almirola has two Top-15 finishes on the ROVAL and a subpar 17.6 average finish. While those marks are better than his recent road course sampling, the ceiling for potential performance here is very low. It's best to pass on Almirola this weekend.

Daniel Suarez – It could be a very tough weekend for Trackhouse Racing. Suarez does have a surprising third-place performance at Indianapolis to his credit, but that has been an outlier. His other four road racing performances of 2023 are all finishes outside the Top 20 for a poor 20.2 average finish. Suarez has made five-career starts at the Charlotte Roval with just one Top-15 finish and an inflated 25.8 average finish. His road racing performance has been off this season and his track specific history is not encouraging. We believe Suarez and the No. 99 Chevrolet team are not a good fantasy racing candidate for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400.   

Bubba Wallace – Another driver in playoff jeopardy this weekend is Wallace and his 23XI Racing team. He's on the outside looking in at possible advancement into the Round of 8, so the pressure will be huge. Unfortunately for Wallace, road racing is not his expertise. His 8-percent career Top-10 rate and 24.5 average finish is more than 6 spots worse than his average finish on big ovals. As it relates to the Charlotte Roval, Wallace has had marginally better success here than the typical road circuit, but still an unimpressive 20-percent Top-10 rate and 20.4 average finish. We believe Wallace and his No. 23 Toyota team are a "pass" this weekend for fantasy racing expectations.