Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Preview: Round of 12 Begins

NASCAR's Chase for the Cup is entering its second round, as the NASCAR Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway this week for a race that will be pivotal in crowning the next champion. This is potentially good news for championship contender Kyle Larson. He's in perilous, unsafe waters coming to Fort Worth, and he's looking for the win and automatic berth into the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup. Considering that Larson is our last Texas winner, he should have a slugger's chance of winning and capturing one of the eight available spots in the next round of the Chase. After an uninspiring opening round, Larson will be looking to make a big impression at Texas, so he'll be swinging for the fences in this 500-mile shootout. His strong performance in this event one year ago is a good indicator that he has the potential to pull off the upset win this Sunday. 

Another driver worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is Chase Elliott. He turned in a big, runner-up performance at Bristol this past week in order to advance into the Round of 12. Now he'll get to hit the reset button on his playoffs and visit a Texas track where he's has had some marginal success. Elliott has never won at the Fort Worth speedway, but he does crack the Top 10 here at a strong 55 percent rate. Additionally, he won his first career Xfinity Series event at Texas Motor Speedway back in 2014, so you know this place is special to the Hendrick Motorsports star. Perhaps the biggest threat for victory lane this Sunday afternoon comes in the form of Christopher Bell and his No. 20 Toyota team. He too has never won at the Texas track, but he was a Top-10 finisher earlier this season in the All Star Race held at Fort Worth and has been racing extremely well of late. With Bell, Elliott and Larson squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest could also be another opportunity for an outsider to upstage these three important playoff drivers. Don't count out lesser threats like Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney or Denny Hamlin. Any of these guys could turn in a strong performance and upstage our top tier contenders.       

It's been quite a while since the last NASCAR Cup Series points race at the Texas oval. In fact, it was this event in October of last year. When the series visited in May of this year, it was to hold the annual All-Star Race. That 140 lap exhibition event, while valuable, will not be anything like Sunday afternoon's 500-mile battle. While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta and Charlotte, there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons to those events. Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 33 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Kyle Larson won this event one year ago, the last time the NASCAR Cup Series went points racing at Texas Motor Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran turned in a dominant performance and led a race-high 256 laps to capture the win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. It was Larson's first career victory at the Fort Worth oval. The No. 5 Chevrolet team have struggled to find victory lane this season and would seem unlikely contenders to win again at Texas, though Larson's Top-10 finish at Kansas and his strong performance at Bristol this past weekend would seem to indicate that he'll have a good chance. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been sharp at this oval in recent years and can never be underestimated in a Texas start. 

Speaking of Kansas Speedway, it's our most recent look at the drivers on a similarly-sized oval and maybe our best barometer of what to expect this weekend. The Toyotas were strong and captured the Top 3 spots, and drivers in the Hendrick stable did well, too, grabbing three Top-10 finishes in that event. We could be in for a sequel to Kansas' action in Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. Bubba Wallace came out on top in that recent Kansas race, so we'll need to give him due consideration as well in this Texas start. Additionally, the Trackhouse Racing Chevys were strong but clearly second fiddle to the Gibbs/23XI Toyotas and Hendrick Chevrolets. That's something to commit to memory before filling out your fantasy racing lineups for Texas. We'll take a look at the contenders for the championship and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Coming off strong Top-5 Bristol finish, Larson is in a decent but not yet safe position in the Chase for the Cup. There's no time to dial it back or ease up heading to Fort Worth this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports star has won twice at this track in the past year. Larson grabbed the victory in the 2021 All-Star Race at Texas and returned to the track last October to dominate the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been strong on intermediate ovals this season with a pair of runner-up finishes (Las Vegas and Kansas) and a strong 67 percent Top-10 rate on the 1.5-mile ovals. Larson is vigorously defending his 2021 championship and a win at Texas Motor Speedway would lock him into the Round of 8 in the Chase.   

Chase Elliott – Although Elliott qualified poorly and didn't lead any laps at Bristol this past week, he still forged a brilliant runner-up finish and advanced into the Round of 12 in the Chase. The second chance in the playoffs will not be lost on Elliott nor the No. 9 team. The young star has been a steady performer with a 55 percent Top-10 rate at this track, but he's yet to be a major threat to win at Texas to this point in his Cup Series career. That could change in Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. Elliott's last look in a points race at the Texas track was in this event one year ago. He qualified sixth place and finished seventh in that event. His intermediate oval performances this season have been pretty strong, with a victory at Atlanta and three total Top 10s. Elliott knows he needs to pick up the pace going forward in the playoffs, so this is a pivotal start for the No. 9 Chevrolet team.

Christopher Bell – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been coming on strong in recent races. Bell rides a three-race Top-5 streak into Texas and led a whopping 143 laps this past Saturday night at Bristol before finishing a brilliant fourth-place. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has been an impressive performer on these intermediate ovals this season, with two pole positions, 97 laps led, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes. His last two points starts at Texas Motor Speedway are what compels us most this weekend, as Bell grabbed a pair of third-place finishes in those two races. Given this team's current hot streak and Bell's last couple outings at Texas, we have to consider him a top contender to win Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.  

Denny Hamlin – The three-time Texas winner has proven over the years that this isn't his best intermediate oval, but he brings home run potential to this track when the racing really matters. With close to 300 career laps led and his last Texas victory as recently as 2019, we have to take Hamlin very serious in this playoff race. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota won at the similar-sized oval in Charlotte this season and recently finished runner-up at Kansas Speedway. Hamlin's up-and-down performance at Texas Motor Speedway in recent seasons may deter some from fantasy racing deployment, but we believe that can be discounted this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will battle for the win Sunday in Fort Worth.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – This season's All-Star Race winner at Texas narrowly misses making the contenders list this week, but he easily makes the solid plays category at Texas Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 12 Ford was strong in his outing here in May's All-Star Race, leading 84 laps and racing among the Top 5 most of the evening to grab an impressive victory in that exhibition event. As far as points racing goes at the Fort Worth track, Blaney has seven Top-10 finishes in 13 starts for a reasonable 54 percent rate.  He also rides a four-race Texas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. A Top-10 finish seems very likely for this driver and team with the high ceiling of a potential Top 5.       

Ross Chastain – After slumping in July and August, Chastain has rebounded nicely since the playoffs began. He rides a two-race Top-10 streak into Fort Worth this week and is excited about the prospect of a deeper drive into the Chase for the Cup. Chastain has been a top performer on intermediate ovals this season with 314 laps led, two runner-up finishes, three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes. Most recently, he notched a solid seventh-place finish at Kansas Speedway. The veteran driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet doesn't have very impressive Texas stats in his resume, but we believe that's of little concern. Chastain has been one of the top drivers in the Next-Gen car on cookie-cutter ovals this season.        

William Byron – Speaking of drivers who've turned it up a notch since the playoffs began, none other than Byron heads that list. He was terribly inconsistent heading into the Chase for the Cup but has turned in three great performances in the first three events and rides a three-race Top-10 streak into Fort Worth. Byron has been strong this season on the cookie-cutter tracks, with one win (Atlanta) and three Top-10 finishes, good for a solid 50 percent rate. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has three career Top 10s at Texas Motor Speedway, but more importantly his career-best Texas finish was his most recent. In this event one year ago, Byron led 55 laps and grabbed a stellar runner-up finish. He'll be eager to follow up on that performance Sunday afternoon.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star barely squeaked through to the Round of 12 in the playoffs, but the good news is that Logano gets to hit the reset button on his Chase for the Cup. What better track to visit than Texas? Logano is a one-time Texas winner and cracks the Top 10 here at a respectable 54 percent rate. Intermediate ovals have not been his best tracks in 2022, but Logano showed some promise recently at Kansas by winning the outside pole and leading a couple laps. The importance of this race cannot be understated and Logano and the No. 22 Ford team understands they have new life in the playoffs. It will be up to them to rebound this Sunday and post a statement Top-10 finish in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Texas & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing team and Truex have been strong but winless on these intermediate ovals in 2022. The veteran driver has racked up one Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes this season in the cookie-cutter oval events. Last time out in mid-September, Truex registered a strong fifth-place finish at the Kansas oval. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has never won at this facility, but Truex cracks the Top 10 here at a strong 53 percent  rate and has led well over 600 career laps at TMS. He isn't a part of the playoff field, but Truex is looking to end the season strong and set his Joe Gibbs Racing team up for success in 2023 at these same tracks.   

Tyler Reddick – The Richard Childress Racing youngster was unfortunately eliminated from the playoffs last weekend at Bristol, but Reddick has still had a pretty good season and has shown the ability to win races and challenge the Top 5. He should rebound nicely in Fort Worth this weekend. Reddick has one pole, 99 laps led and a pair of Top-10 finishes on the intermediate ovals this season. He won the pole and led 38 laps recently at Kansas Speedway, but he unfortunately crashed early in that 400-mile event. Reddick does carry some risk with his selection this weekend and that's why we've put him in the sleepers list for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet does have two Top 10s in three starts at Texas Motor Speedway, an encouraging statistic.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez was pretty impressive here in May. He sat on the outside pole and won the All-Star Open and then went on to finish a strong fifth-place in the All-Star Race later that same evening. That's his last look at the oval in Fort Worth and a very good one for sure. His last outing on a 1.5-mile oval netted a solid 10th-place finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago. As far as points racing at Texas Motor Speedway is concerned, Suarez has been pretty consistent in recent visits. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet has three Top-10 finishes in his last five starts at the Texas oval. Suarez should be a face among the Top 10 at the end of Sunday afternoon.        

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet was outstanding in his last intermediate oval race. Bowman qualified third, led 107 laps and finished fourth-place at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago. That performance added to what has been a pretty good resume this season on the intermediate ovals with one win, two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a strong 11.0 average finish. Texas Motor Speedway hasn't been too kind to Bowman over the years, at least until just recently. The veteran driver has been improving, though, and two of his last four starts at TMS have netted Top-5 finishes. For fantasy racing players Bowman brings to the table a tremendous amount of upside alongside some risk.

Chris Buescher – Last weekend's Bristol victor will look to stay on a roll this week at Texas Motor Speedway. Buescher has not only been good on short tracks but pretty good on intermediate ovals as well. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran nabbed a strong eighth-place finish in May of this year in the All-Star Race at Texas. Coupled with that performance, Buescher also notched a Top-15 performance at the similar-sized oval in Kansas a couple weeks ago. The No. 17 Ford team has been performing well of late and Buescher has been leading them to strong finishes over the last several weeks. He should be a dependable, steady fantasy racing performer in weekly lineup and salary cap games this week.     

Bubba Wallace – Wallace had a tough outing at Bristol last weekend, but he'd been racing well up until his Bristol performance. The 23XI Racing veteran nabbed an impressive win at Kansas Speedway two weeks ago, one of two Top 10s in his last three races. Wallace should rebound nicely at Texas Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. He has a pretty good record on 1.5-mile tracks this season with one win, two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for a steady 15.2 average finish. Texas Motor Speedway hasn't held a lot of success for Wallace, but the Next-Gen car should trump those historical stats.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star leads all active drivers with four career victories at Texas Motor Speedway and sports a strong 58 percent Top-10 rate at the Fort Worth oval. However, the current state of affairs in the No. 18 Toyota team are troubling. Busch has been eliminated from the Chase for the Cup after his second engine failure in the first three playoff races. He has just one Top 10 in the last five races and it appears morale has bottomed out with both the driver and the team. Busch has incredible potential and has had incredible success at Texas Motor Speedway over the years, but this is not a good situation for fantasy racing players late in the season.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick and the No. 4 team have been plagued by a series of wrecks and mechanical failures of late. The veteran driver is struggling to round out his 2022 season. Intermediate ovals have been tough on Harvick this year. With just one Top 10 in six starts, he's sitting at a lowly 17 percent Top-10 rate and inflated 16.5 average finish. Those are marks very uncharacteristic for Harvick on these intermediate ovals. The Stewart Haas Racing star has incredible career statistics at Texas Motor Speedway with three wins and a stellar 65 percent Top-10 rate. We still believe current trends in the Next-Gen car matter the most, and all indicators point to a struggle for Harvick at Texas.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Stenhouse has been mired in a deep slump the past several races. He hasn't cracked the Top 15 in the last four events, and three of his last four races have resulted in disappointing DNFs. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has had it tough on 1.5-mile ovals in 2022 with two Top 10s and three finishes outside the Top 30. His average finish comes in at a subpar 21.3. Stenhouse has never really enjoyed any success at Texas Motor Speedway. In 17 career starts, he's failed to crack the Top 10 and has just five Top-15 finishes for a 22.1 average finish. Stenhouse has much better intermediate ovals in his Cup Series resume, not to mention the fact that his recent struggles are a great concern.   

Cole Custer – The driver of the No. 41 Ford has had a long, tough season of racing on the intermediate ovals. Custer has just one Top-10 finish in six starts and five finishes outside the Top 20, with his average finish coming in at a hefty 23.5. Three of those six starts have resulted in DNFs, which isn't good to say the least. Custer has just three career Cup Series starts at Texas Motor Speedway with just one Top-15 and an inflated 24.0 average finish. This is your typical combination of poor performance level this season on similar ovals and a poor track history. Custer is a driver to avoid in this Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.