Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Preview: Championship Clock is Ticking

NASCAR's Chase for the Cup is coming down the stretch, and this week the NASCAR Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for a race that will be a pivotal event in crowning the next champion.  

This is potentially good news for championship contender Kyle Busch.  He is in perilous waters coming to Fort Worth, and he's looking for the win and automatic berth in the championship round of the Chase at Phoenix.  Considering that Busch is our last Texas winner, he should have a slugger's chance of winning and capturing one of the four available spots in the championship round of the Chase at Phoenix.  After the Charlotte Roval this past Sunday, he sits a scant 1 points behind Ryan Blaney and the cutoff to make the championship round on points.  So he'll be swinging for the fences in this 500-mile shootout.  His strong performance in this event one year ago is a good indicator that he has the potential to pull off the upset win this Sunday. 

Another driver worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is Chase Elliott.  He is in a desperate position in terms of the points and advancing to Phoenix.  Elliott needs a big performance at Fort Worth and this is the style track that he's feasted on in recent seasons.  Elliott has never won a Cup Series race at Texas so it would seemingly be a tall order for the No. 9 Chevrolet team.  However, he did turn in a strong All Star performance at the Fort Worth oval earlier this season and finished third in that exhibition event.  Perhaps the biggest threat for victory lane this Sunday afternoon comes in the form of Kyle Larson and his No. 5 Chevrolet team.  He too has never won at the Texas track, but took the victory earlier this season in the All Star Race held at Fort Worth.  With Busch, Elliott and Larson squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest could also be another opportunity for an outsider to upstage these three important playoff drivers.  Don't count out lesser threats like Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski or Ryan Blaney.  Any of these guys could turn in a strong performance and upstage our top tier contenders.      

It's been quite a while since the last NASCAR Cup race at the Texas oval.  In fact, this is the first points race at Fort Worth in 2021.  When the series visited in June of this year, it was to hold the annual All-Star Race.  That 100 lap exhibition event, while valuable, will not be anything like Sunday afternoon's 500-mile battle.   While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta and Charlotte there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons to those events.  Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend.  Here are the loop stats for the last 32 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Kyle Busch won this event one year ago.  That was the last time the Cup Series went points racing at Texas Motor Speedway.  The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran turned in a dominant performance and took the lead late from Clint Bowyer to capture the win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.  It was Busch's fourth-career victory at the Fort Worth oval.  The No. 18 team have struggled to find victory lane this season and would seem unlikely contenders to win again at Texas.  However, Busch's Top-3 run at Las Vegas recently would seem to indicate that he'll have a good chance.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has been sharp at this oval in recent years and can never be underestimated in a Texas start. 

Speaking of Las Vegas, it is our most recent look at the drivers on a similarly sized oval and maybe our best barometer of what to expect this weekend.  The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas were strong, as well as the top two drivers in the Hendrick stable, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson.  We could be in for a sequel to Las Vegas' action in Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.  Denny Hamlin came out on top in that recent Vegas race, so we'll need to give him due consideration as well in this Texas start.  Additionally, the Penske Racing Fords were strong, but clearly second fiddle to the Gibbs Toyotas and Hendrick Chevrolets.  That's something to commit to memory before filling out your fantasy racing lineups for Texas.  We'll take a look at the contenders for the championship and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The No. 18 Toyota team is racing to get back to the championship round at Phoenix.  Busch has been on a good streak on these intermediate ovals this season.  He won earlier in the year at Kansas and recently placed third at Las Vegas.  Busch will visit one of his more consistent intermediate ovals Sunday at Fort Worth.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has grabbed four wins, 14 Top-5 and 17 Top-10 finishes at this oval during his career for a very impressive 47- and 57-percent respectively.  Busch rides a four-race Texas Top-10 streak into Sunday afternoon's action and looking to extend that number to four.  He needs a win to punch his ticket to the championship round of the Chase at Phoenix.  Busch will race with that urgency Sunday in Texas.

Kyle Larson – Coming off the big win on the Charlotte Roval, Larson is in a commanding, but not safe position in the Chase for the Cup.  There's no time to dial it back or ease up heading to Fort Worth this weekend.  The Hendrick Motorsports star has never won a points race at the Texas track.  However, Larson did claim the win in June's All Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway.  The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet made his first start at TMS with Hendrick Motorsports and came away with the win and big cash prize.  Larson came on strong late in that exhibition event and passed Brad Keselowski for the victory.  The data collected in that race will come in very handy for Sunday's 500-mile battle.  Larson has the championship within sight and a win at Texas locks him into the championship round at Phoenix. 

Chase Elliott – Although Elliott ran into trouble and a tangle with Kevin Harvick this past week at Charlotte, he still advanced into the Round of 8 in the Chase.  The second chance will not be lost on Elliott nor the No. 9 team.  The young star has been a steady performer (50-percent) Top-10 rate at this track, but not a major threat to win at Texas to this point in his Cup Series career.  That could change in Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.  Elliott's last look at the Texas track was in June's All Star Race.  He led 12 laps and finished an impressive third-place in that event.  His last outing on an intermediate oval left an indelible impression.  Elliott battled with Denny Hamlin in the late stages of the South Point 400 at Las Vegas in late September to finish runner-up in that event.

Denny Hamlin – The three-time Texas winner has proven over the years that this isn't his best intermediate oval, but he brings homerun potential to this track when the racing really matters.  With close to 300-career laps led and his last Texas victory as recently as 2019, we have to take Hamlin very serious in this playoff race.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota won in a dominant performance in his last intermediate oval outing at Las Vegas a few weeks ago.  The iron seems to be razor sharp right now with this race team in this particular style of racing.  Hamlin's up-and-down uneven performance at Texas Motor Speedway in recent seasons may deter some from fantasy racing deployment, but we believe that can be discounted this weekend.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star will battle for the win Sunday in Fort Worth. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing team and Truex have been strong, but winless on these intermediate ovals in 2021.  The veteran driver has racked up three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes this season in the cookie cutter oval events.  Last time out, Truex registered a strong fourth-place finish at the Las Vegas oval at the end of September.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has never won this facility, but Truex cracks the Top 10 here at a strong 55-percent and he has led well over 600-career laps at TMS.  In terms of the championship chase, Truex is in need of a playoff-advancing win and that may just be all the motivation he needs to crack the Top 5 and potentially challenge for the victory. 

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is looking to advance in the Chase for the Cup playoffs and a good performance at Texas will surely help to that end.  Logano is currently seventh in the playoff standings and looking for max points this Sunday.  Logano is a one-time Texas winner (2014) and he cracks the Top-5 at this facility at a strong 44-percent rate.  He rides a three-race Texas Top-10 streak into this Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.  Logano and the No. 22 Ford team were Top-5 finishers in June's All-Star Race at Texas, so the momentum looks good heading into this weekend.  This driver and team have not been the sharpest on intermediate ovals this season, but Texas is a different animal for Logano, and a real opportunity this deep into the playoffs.

Kevin Harvick – The championship quest for Harvick is now over after his run-in with Chase Elliott and the wall at the Charlotte Roval last weekend.  However, we should see a refocused driver this week at Texas, which is one of his better intermediate ovals.  Harvick will take things up a notch this weekend and begin to build momentum for next season.  The SHR star has been super consistent on intermediate ovals this season, scoring five Top-10 finishes (72-percent) to-date on these size tracks.  Harvick is a three-time Texas winner and cracks the Top 10 at this oval at an impressive 64-percent rate.  With close to 700 laps led at this facility, Harvick is often seen leading and not following in these Texas races.   

Ryan Blaney – The talented Penske Racing youngster misses making the contenders list this week, but he easily makes the solid plays category at Texas.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford was strong in his outing here in June's All-Star Race, by leading 15 laps and racing among the Top 5 most of the evening to finish fifth-place in that exhibition event.  As far as points racing goes at the Fort Worth track, Blaney has six Top-10 finishes in 12 starts for a reasonable 50-percent rate.  He also rides a three-race Texas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  A Top-10 finish seems very likely for this driver and team with the high ceiling of a potential Top 5.   

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Texas & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski showed up here in June's All-Star Race and nabbed an impressive runner-up finish in that exhibition event.  That effort grabs our attention considering that the driver of the No. 2 Ford is still alive in the Chase for the Cup.  Keselowski has been pretty sharp in these cookie cutter oval outings this season.  Coming off a respectable seventh-place finish a few weeks ago at the similar sized oval in Las Vegas, he's a good momentum play for Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.  That Vegas finish is one of four Top 10's in Keselowski's 1.5-mile oval resume this season.  That 57-percent clip is well better than his career average at TMS, but indicative of how well Keselowski has raced in these intermediate oval events.  With a spot in the championship round at stake, we expect this Penske Racing star to be sharp.      

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet raced to a steady 10th-place finish at the Charlotte Roval, but it wasn't good enough to advance into the next round in the Chase.  On the bright side, the 1.5-mile ovals have yielded a lot of recent success to the No. 48 Chevrolet team.  Bowman has grabbed three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on these ovals in 2021.  He also led 9 laps and registered a sixth-place finish in this season's Texas All-Star Race.  The veteran driver doesn't have the greatest career stats at Texas Motor Speedway, but he does have a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three Texas starts.  Bowman has the momentum and determination to overcome a lot of obstacles right now as he showed at Charlotte this past week. 

William Byron – The playoffs are over for this young driver and team, but Byron went all out at the Roval last Sunday in an attempt to advance in the Chase.  He showed great grit and led 30 laps on the Charlotte road course but eventually faded to finish 11th-place.  He's an up-and-down risk play for Texas Motor Speedway, but one that is worth considering.  Byron has been razor sharp on intermediate ovals until just recently.  He has one win and five Top-10 finishes in the seven events to-date.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet led 30 whopping laps in the 100-lap All-Star Race in June before finishing a respectable seventh-place at the end of the night.  There is a certain amount of risk that goes with selecting Byron this weekend, but there's also an equal measure of potential reward.         

Tyler Reddick – The Richard Childress Racing youngster has been a steady hand on the 1.5-mile tracks this season.  Reddick has been strong the latter half of this season and has grabbed five Top-10 finishes in the seven races to-date.  That has his average finish at a very respectable 11.1.  Last time out in Las Vegas a few weeks ago, Reddick peddled the No. 8 Chevrolet to a strong sixth-place finish in the South Point 400.  Texas Motor Speedway was a good track to this young driver last season.  Reddick collected runner-up and 15th-place finishes in his two starts for a miniscule 8.5- average finish.  Coming off a surprising runner-up finish at the Charlotte Roval last weekend, Reddick should be a fantasy racing lineup inclusion at Fort Worth. 

Christopher Bell – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been coming on strong in recent races.  Bell rides a two-race Top-10 streak into Texas after fifth- and eighth-place finishes at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has been a mid-level performer at best on these intermediate ovals this season, but Bell does have a pair of Top-10 finishes in those efforts.  His last points start at Texas Motor Speedway is what compels us most this weekend.  In this event one year ago, Bell peddled his old No. 95 team to a strong third-place finish in Fort Worth.  Given this team's current hot streak and Bell's last outing at Texas we have to recommend this driver and team in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues this Sunday afternoon.  

Austin Dillon – The Richard Childress Racing driver is one of the few competitors to finish inside the Top 15 in all seven of his intermediate oval starts this season.  Dillon's average finish speaks to his consistency and an impressive 10.1 average.  The driver of the No. 3 Chevy won at the Texas oval in mid-2020 and his last five Texas starts have yielded two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes.  The average across the recent span is a strong 9.8 average.  Dillon's recent success at Texas Motor Speedway has reversed the trends of his very slow to start first six seasons of Cup Series racing at the Texas track.  He and crew chief Justin Alexander have this place pretty well figured out.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran is limping into the final four races of this season.  Despite a shocking win at Loudon, the 2021 season has been pretty forgettable for the driver of the No. 10 Ford.  The intermediate sized ovals have been a big part of his agony this season.  Almirola has labored to just two Top-20 finishes in those seven events and his average finish is a bloated 25.9.  This is a very uncharacteristic level of performance for this driver and team on the cookie cutter tracks.  Almirola's lowly 25-percent career Top-10 rate at Texas Motor Speedway would make him a "pan" in a good season, and certainly not this year. 

Ross Chastain – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has gone from hot to cold as the weather has transitioned from Summer to Fall.  Chastain's last three performances have been 23rd-, 33rd- and 23rd-place finishes.  It's caused him to slip from 19th- to 20th-place in the driver point standings.  Chastain will look to rekindle the flame that led him to four Top-10 finishes between June and July of this year.  However, the card would seem stacked against this driver and team.  Chastain has really toughed it out this season on the cookie cutter tracks.  With just two Top-15 finishes in those seven starts, he checks in at a lowly 21.3 average finish on the mid-sized tracks this year.  His last outing was a disappointing 23rd-place finish at Las Vegas at the end of September.  Chastain has a 27.5-career average finish at Texas across four starts.  He's a driver to avoid in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.        

Ryan Preece – The driver of the No. 37 Chevrolet has had his utility on superspeedway and larger ovals this season, but the 1.5-mile tracks have been a complete disaster for Preece and his JTG Daugherty Racing team.  He's slogged to just one Top-20 finish on these style tracks in 2021and three finishes outside the Top 25 for an undesirable 24.6 average finish.  Preece is coming off a steady Top-20 run at the Charlotte Roval, but he's a driver to fade this week at Texas Motor Speedway.  His five-career starts at the Fort Worth oval have amounted to little more than a 27.8 average finish.  That won't be of much help this late in the fantasy racing season.

Ryan Newman – Another driver slumping coming into the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 is Newman.  He started out the year well enough but has fallen on hard times of late.  Newman has two DNF's over his last five events and a 27.6 average finish across the span.  He limps into Texas weekend looking for a rebound effort.  Newman's season of racing on the intermediate ovals turned lean during the Summer months.  Finishes of 27th-, 28th- and 20th-place have been his last three efforts on cookie cutter tracks.  Newman's career numbers at Texas are equally disappointing.  With just six Top-10 finishes in 35 starts, he's a lowly 17-percent Top-10 finisher at this track.