Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Preview: Round of 12 Begins

NASCAR's Chase for the Cup is entering its second round, and this week the NASCAR Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for a race that will be a pivotal event in crowning the next champion. This is potentially good news for championship contender Tyler Reddick. He is on a roll so far in the playoffs, and he's looking for the win and automatic berth into the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup. Considering that Reddick is our last Texas winner, he should have a slugger's chance of winning and capturing one of the eight available spots in the next round of the Chase. After an uninspiring mid-summer stretch of races for the No. 45 Toyota team, Reddick has rebounded well and will be looking to make a big impression at Texas. So he'll be swinging for the fences in this 400-mile shootout. His strong performance in this event one year ago is a good indicator that he has the potential to pull off the upset win this Sunday. 

Another driver worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is William Byron. He won earlier this season at Atlanta, finished runner-up at Charlotte (both similar ovals to Texas) and turned in a Top-10 finish at Bristol this past week in order to advance into the Round of 12. Now he'll get to hit the reset button on his playoffs and visit a Texas track where Byron has had some marginal success. Byron has never won at the Fort Worth oval, but he does crack the Top 10 here at a strong 50-percent rate. Additionally, he has led a combined 97 laps in his last two Texas starts and collected a second- and seventh-place finish. Perhaps the biggest threat for victory lane this Sunday afternoon comes in the form of Kyle Larson and his No. 5 Chevrolet team. He is a one-time Texas winner (2021) and has led over 275 laps in his last two Texas starts. With Reddick, Byron and Larson squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest could also be another opportunity for an outsider to upstage these three important playoff drivers. Don't count out lesser threats like Joey Logano or Chris Buescher. Any of these guys could turn in a strong performance and upstage our top tier contenders.      

It's been quite a while since the last NASCAR Cup Series points race at the Texas oval. In fact, it was this event in September of last year. Fast forward 12 months and we're racing at the same track and for the same high playoff stakes. While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta and Charlotte there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons to those events. Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 34 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Tyler Reddick won this event one year ago. That was the last time the NASCAR Cup Series went points racing at Texas Motor Speedway. The 23XI Racing youngster turned in a dominant performance and led a race-high 70 laps to capture the win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. It was Reddick's first-career victory at the Fort Worth oval. The No. 45 Toyota team have struggled to find victory lane this season, at least until very recently, but a trip to Fort Worth could be a major opportunity for this driver and team. He recently finished runner-up at Darlington and won at Kansas two weeks ago. That would seem to indicate that he'll have a good chance.

Speaking of Kansas Speedway, it is our most recent look at the drivers on a similarly sized oval and maybe our best barometer of what to expect this weekend. The Toyotas were strong and captured the Top 2 spots, as well as drivers in the Hendrick stable who managed to grab three Top-10 finishes in that event. We could be in for a sequel to Kansas' action in Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Reddick also came out on top in that recent Kansas race, so we'll need to give him very close examination. Additionally, the Chevrolet of Legacy Motor Club and driver Erik Jones was strong, but clearly second fiddle to the Gibbs/23XI Toyotas and Hendrick Chevrolets. That's something to commit to memory before filling out your fantasy racing lineups for Texas.  We'll take a look at the contenders for the championship and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Tyler Reddick – With a win a couple weeks ago at Kansas Speedway and three Top-5 finishes this season on intermediate ovals, we feel that Reddick will have a great impact in this weekend's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Additionally, Reddick won this event one year ago, albeit that race was 100-miles longer in distance than this weekend's race it will still have bearing. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has four-career starts at Texas Motor Speedway. In addition to his 2022 win, Reddick has a runner-up finisher here in 2020 and three total Top 10's for a razor sharp average finish at Fort Worth of 6.8. We realize the sample size is small, but those are statistics that simply cannot be overlooked. Given that Reddick was very impressive in his most recent intermediate oval race, we have to give top attention to this driver and team at Texas.  

Kyle Larson – Coming off strong runner-up finish at Bristol and carrying a three-race Top-5 streak into this week, Larson is in good position in the Chase for the Cup. However, there's no time to dial it back or ease up heading to Fort Worth this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports star has won twice at this track in the past two seasons. Larson grabbed the victory in the 2021 All-Star Race at Texas and then he returned to the track in this event in 2021 to dominate the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been strong on intermediate ovals this season with a pair of runner-up finishes (Las Vegas & Kansas) and strong 50-percent Top-5 rate on the 1.5-mile ovals. Larson is vigorously pursuing this season's championship and a win at Texas Motor Speedway would lock him into the Round of 8 in the Chase.   

Denny Hamlin – The three-time Texas winner has proven over the years that this isn't his best intermediate oval, but he brings homerun potential to this track when the racing really matters. With close to 300-career laps led and his last Texas victory as recently as 2019, we have to take Hamlin very serious in this playoff race. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota won and finished runner-up at the similar sized oval in Kansas with his two starts at that facility this season. He's also led 141 combined laps on the mid-sized ovals in 2023. Hamlin's 47-percent Top-10 rate at Texas Motor Speedway is a little lower than we like to see in most top contenders, and may deter some from fantasy racing deployment. However, we believe that can be discounted this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will battle for the win Sunday in Fort Worth.

William Byron – Byron has never won at Texas Motor Speedway, but he's been inching closer in recent starts. He's led a combined 97 laps in his last two efforts at the Fort Worth track and earned runner-up and seventh-place finishes. That has boosted his Top-10 rate here to 50-percent, but still winless. That could change this Sunday afternoon in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Byron has been strong on intermediate ovals this season with wins at Las Vegas and Atlanta. He also boasts four Top-5 finishes and close to 300 laps led on these size ovals. Byron is still alive in the playoffs and looking for that valuable win that will advance him into the next round of the Chase. That makes him a very dangerous driver at Texas Motor Speedway.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Although Elliott didn't make the playoffs, he's raced well the last few weeks. He rides a four-race Top-10 streak into Fort Worth this Sunday afternoon. The young star has been a steady performer (50-percent) Top-10 rate at this track, but not a major threat to win at Texas to this point in his Cup Series career. Elliott's last look in a points race at the Texas track was in this event one year ago. He qualified sixth-place and led 44 laps, appearing pointed towards a possible Top-5 finish. However, Elliott would be rolled up in a mid-race crash and fail to finish. His intermediate oval performances this season have been pretty strong with a 50-percent Top-10 rate and sixth-place finish most recently at Kansas Speedway. Elliott knows he needs to finish the season strong in preparation for 2024, so this is a pivotal start for the No. 9 Chevrolet team.

Christopher Bell – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been coming on strong in recent races. Bell has captured the last three pole positions and led a combined 242 laps in the last three events leading into this weekend. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has been an impressive performer on these intermediate ovals this season, with one pole position, 72 laps led, three Top-10 finishes. Bell has four-career Cup Series starts at Texas Motor Speedway, and he's captured a pair of Top-5 finishes in those efforts for a 50-percent Top-5 rate and respectable 15.3 average finish. Given the current momentum of this driver and team and Bell's track specific success at Fort Worth, we believe he's a solid fantasy racing play this weekend.    

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star didn't make it through to the Round of 12 in the playoffs, but the good news is that Logano is a consistent intermediate oval performer and what better track to visit than Texas. Logano is a one-time Texas winner and he cracks the Top 10 here at a strong 56-percent rate. Intermediate ovals have been some of his better tracks in 2023. Logano grabbed an early-season win at Atlanta and has notched a 50-percent Top-10 rate on the cookie cutter ovals. The driver of the No. 22 Ford recently finished an impressive fifth-place at Kansas two weeks ago. It will be up to Logano to rebound this Sunday and post a statement Top-10 finish in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is on a roll right now. Keselowski is riding a four-race Top-10 streak into Texas Motor Speedway this week and coming off a strong eighth-place performance at Bristol. The veteran driver has been a productive performer on the intermediate tracks this season with one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes (50-percent). Texas Motor Speedway has held a lot of success for Keselowski over the years. He's a one-time Fort Worth winner and cracks the Top 5 and Top 10 at respective 44- and 56-percent rates across 27-career starts. His performance in this race one year ago netted 15 laps led and a brilliant runner-up finish.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Texas & solid upside

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star leads all active drivers with four-career victories at Texas Motor Speedway, and he sports a strong 56-percent Top-10 rate at the Fort Worth oval. Busch made it through to the Round of 12 in the Chase and that will make him a dangerous driver this weekend in Fort Worth. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has been consistent this season on cookie cutter ovals with four Top-10 finishes for a good 67-percent Top-10 rate. His last outing at a similar oval netted a respectable seventh-place finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago. Busch had some struggles in this event one year ago, but that was with his old Joe Gibbs Racing team. We expect to see the Texas Busch of old on Sunday afternoon. 

Kevin Harvick – Harvick and the No. 4 team are not a part of the Chase playoffs, but he'll be racing for pride and legacy this weekend at Texas as this will be his last career start at the oval. The Stewart Haas Racing star has incredible career statistics at Texas Motor Speedway with three wins and a stellar 63-percent Top-10 rate. This track is one of Harvick's more successful intermediate ovals on the circuit. He has been somewhat consistent but not spectacular this season on the mid-sized tracks with one Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes. While that's not spectacular, none of those tracks are Texas to Harvick. We believe he'll dig deep to make an impact in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.

Ryan Blaney – This season has been good to Blaney on the intermediate ovals. He boasts one win (Charlotte) and three Top-10 finishes for a razor sharp 9.7 average finish on these size tracks. The Penske Racing veteran was a respectable 12th-place the last time out on a similar oval, which was Kansas a couple weeks ago. Blaney has eight Top-10 finishes in 14 starts for a good 57-percent rate.  He also rides a five-race Texas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. A Top-10 finish seems very likely for this driver and team, and with playoff advancement looming large, we believe the No. 12 Ford team will dig deep and perform well this Sunday in Fort Worth.        

Ross Chastain – After a bit of a slump through the mid-summer, Chastain appears to have righted the ship with the playoffs underway. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has registered one Top-5 and two Top-15 finishes since the Chase playoffs began. He's racing in the Round of 12 and that's a very important aspect this weekend. Chastain needs to up his performance to have any hope of advancing into the Round of 8. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has not been razor sharp on intermediate ovals this season but he's generally been a Top-15 finisher. Chastain's performance in this event one year ago netted a Top-15 finish. We expect him to be at least that good if not better this Sunday afternoon.

Ty Gibbs – After a long rookie season, Gibbs appears to be putting all the pieces of the puzzle together. The young driver of the No. 54 Toyota is coming off the best performance of his young career with 102 laps led and a fifth-place finish this past weekend at Bristol. Gibbs now has a pair of Top 5's and three Top 15's in the last five races. His last intermediate oval start was a steady Top-15 finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago. As to Texas Motor Speedway, Gibbs doesn't have much Cup Series experience here. This will be just his second-career start at TMS. He registered a respectable Top-20 finish at Fort Worth one year ago in relief driving duty for Kurt Busch and 23XI Racing.         

Erik Jones – The driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet is not a part of the playoff picture, but he's certainly picked an interesting time in the schedule to heat up. Jones has a pair of Top 10's in his last three races and brings that momentum into Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. The Legacy Motor Club veteran has been decent this season on 1.5-mile ovals with two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes for a respectable 15.7 average finish. Texas Motor Speedway has also held some recent success for Jones. He's collected two of his seven-career Texas Top 10's in the last four trips to Fort Worth, including a brilliant sixth-place finish in this event one year ago. Jones carries a robust 10.1 career average finish at TMS into this weekend's action.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Chris Buescher – Buescher's hot streak hit a speed bump at Kansas a couple weeks ago, and that's noteworthy. While he did rebound to a strong fourth-place finish at the Bristol short track this past weekend, there are some concerns for this driver and team heading back to an intermediate oval this week. Buescher has struggled on these size tracks in 2023 with just one Top-10 finish vs. three finishes outside the Top 20 and a 20.5 average finish. For whatever reason the No. 17 team has not gotten good results on these mid-sized ovals this season. Buescher's Texas stats are a bit discouraging too. With 12-career Cup Series starts and no Top-10 finishes to date, he carries an inflated 23.3 average finish at Texas into this weekend.     

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star advanced into the Round of 12 of the Chase, and that's the good news. Given his historical struggles at Bristol, he pulled out a good performance last weekend. Truex could face some headwinds this weekend at Fort Worth. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has never won this facility, but Truex cracks the Top 10 here at a strong 52-percent and he has led well over 600-career laps at TMS. However, more recent visits to Fort Worth have been pretty lean for Truex. He's failed to crack the Top 25 in three of his last four visits to Texas Motor Speedway, and Truex has crashed out of his last two-straight starts at the facility. Truex has finished 29th- and 36th-place in his last two intermediate oval starts (Atlanta and Kansas).

Chase Briscoe – Despite some success in his two prior Cup Series starts at Texas Motor Speedway, Briscoe is a driver to fade this weekend in weekly lineup leagues. The Stewart Haas Racing youngster has had a tough road this season and no tougher than his struggles on the intermediate tracks. Briscoe has just two Top-20 finishes on the 1.5-mile tracks and a lowly 24.2 average finish. A big part of those struggles has been his subpar qualifying efforts. Briscoe has started deep in the fields of these races and had great difficulty trying to race forward. The driver of the No. 14 Ford will be boosted by his brief success at the Fort Worth oval, but we believe his challenges to finish well at Texas will be many.

Michael McDowell – McDowell has had his highs and lows this season, but definitely the intermediate ovals have been tracks of inconsistency. The driver of the No. 34 Ford has just one Top 10 vs. four finishes outside the Top 25 on mid-sized ovals this season. The average finish is coming in at 21.7, which is well above what we look for in terms of fantasy racing production. McDowell has 24-career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and no Top-10 finishes just yet. His average finish of 29.0 at the Fort Worth track is well below the field average. With his playoff elimination after the last round of the Chase, McDowell is clearly a driver to avoid at Texas Motor Speedway.