Alabama 500 Preview: High-Stakes Racing

Considering that we've spent the last few weeks racing on intermediate and smaller ovals with few cautions and few crashes, we're in for some major changes as the "big one" comes back into play. The multi-car, multi-line drafts and side-by-side racing at near 200 mph is nothing short of chaotic. Five hundred miles of racing in these tight conditions almost always leads to disaster, and that's where the luck factor comes into play this weekend. Considering that this weekend's race is the second in the Round of 12 of the Chase, the stakes will be even higher than usual. If Ricky Stenhouse Jr. hopes to engrave his name on the Monster Energy Cup trophy for the first time, a victory here will go a long way to that end. The Roush Fenway Racing veteran won here in May of this year in a pretty strong performance. The No. 17 Ford team has been almost flawless on the super speedways this season, so that should boost Stenhouse's confidence entering this event. The two biggest threats to Stenhouse's hopes for a Round of 8-advancing win this weekend would be Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Both are past winners at this 2.66-mile oval and both are seeking that Chase-advancing win to make the Round of 8 this Sunday afternoon. The stakes will be high and so will the nerves. As we saw with both Busch and Kyle Larson at Charlotte last weekend, the consequences of this Chase format is more pressure than ever at this point in the season. When the green flag drops the mayhem will ensue and championship hopes will be made or dashed after 500 miles of racing at 'Dega.

Talladega Superspeedway is unlike any of the other tracks in the Chase, but history still plays a big part. The drivers that tend to run up front and win at this large oval are usually the same drivers each and every time we visit Talladega. As you'll see in the table below, some of the drivers who are vying for the championship are also very proficient at Talladega Superspeedway. Here are the loop stats for the last 25 races at the famous restrictor-plate track.

The 26 lead changes were a bit down from recent races at the monster Alabama oval, but the action didn't suffer a bit. We're certain that we're in for more of the same in this Sunday's Alabama 500. We should see some big multi-car crashes and some late cautions as the urgency gets the best of the drivers in the closing laps. With the big wrecks and caution flags as a result of the pack racing, we should see some of the familiar "sand-bagging" drivers who hang out in the back of the field. Although stage racing has gone a long way towards tempering this possibility, the driver who keeps a low profile most of the race may ultimately be the one to push to the front in the closing laps and make for a thrilling victory. One thing is for certain, a spot in the next round of the Chase is up for grabs and this race helps to equalize the odds for some of the smaller teams. Some drivers will move on to Kansas with their Chase for the Cup hopes intact, while others will load the wrecked remains of their race cars onto the hauler and start to think about next season. Here are the drivers who you need to focus on for fantasy racing glory at Talladega Superspeedway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski - The four-time Talladega winner comes to central Alabama this weekend looking for a win and automatic berth in the next round of the Chase. Considering his recent level of performance on superspeedway ovals, Keselowski will have those odds on his side. Penske Racing has taken four of the last eight trophies on superspeedways, with two victories for Keselowski and two for his teammate Joey Logano. The field has caught them a bit in the 2017 season, but these Fords have been very strong and leading laps. Keselowski won at this oval last season, and he led 31 laps here in the spring before finishing seventh in the GEICO 500. He'll be a very motivated driver this Sunday with a strong car at his disposal.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has shaken up the NASCAR hierarchy on the restrictor-plate race tracks. Stenhouse has won the last two plate races at Daytona and Talladega this season, and he has chalked up four Top-5 finishes in the last five events on these two ovals. The speed of the No. 17 Ford team is unquestionable, and the skill of this fifth-season driver is coming of age. Stenhouse enters this event with the pressure of advancement in the Chase on the line, and knowing this race sets up like a big tantalizing softball given this team's recent excellence on these style tracks. He may not lead the most laps in the Alabama 500, but you can guarantee Stenhouse will make his presence felt before the end of this race.

Kyle Busch - The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had a mixed bag this season on the superspeedways, but he comes to Talladega this weekend in damage control mode after his poor Charlotte outing. Busch has raced near the front in all three restrictor-plate races this season, but only the earlier start at Talladega netted the Top-5 finish. That may be all the confidence he needs this Sunday. Busch won his lone Talladega victory in 2008, and he's cracked the Top 3 in two of his last three starts at this oval. He had the finish line and victory within site on the last lap of the spring race at Talladega, but couldn't hold off the surging Ricky Stenhouse Jr. If Busch has an ace left up his sleeve, don't be surprised if he throws it on the table at Talladega.

Kevin Harvick - The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has had some tough luck finishing these superspeedway races of late, but the speed has been there. Harvick has led 72 combined laps in his last three Daytona/Talladega events combined. Having one career win and 14 Top-10 finishes at Talladega Superspeedway, the driver of the No. 4 Ford has steady stats at this track and a steady 42-percent Top-10 rate. Harvick has performed similarly at Daytona as well. The pressure to advance in the Chase for the Cup will be a powerful motivator for this driver and team. Harvick is coming off 149 laps led and a third-place finish at Charlotte this past week. He seems to be heating up at just the right time.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Denny Hamlin - The 2016 Daytona 500 winner is looking to regroup as we come to this elimination race of the Chase. Hamlin comes to central Alabama this weekend in precarious points position, and in desperate need of a good performance to advance to the Round 8. He could very well punch his ticket to the next round with a victory. It wouldn't be that surprising considering that he won his first Talladega victory just three seasons ago. The No. 11 Toyota team has been very strong on the restrictor-plate race tracks since 2014. Hamlin led 12 laps and finished third in this event one year ago, and he led 43 laps and finished 11th at Talladega in May. He has a near 50-percent Top-10 rate at this oval since 2014, and that's a pretty lofty mark for this high risk style of racing.

Chase Elliott - Elliott is under the gun to advance in the Chase, and his No. 24 team has answered the call since the playoffs began. Three runner-up finishes and an 11th-place have been his body of work since Chicago. That is very encouraging coming into the Alabama 500. They have been giving him good cars each week, and the results have shown it. The Hendrick Motorsports driver won the pole and led 39 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500. Elliott didn't have as much luck at Talladega in the spring as he was caught up in one of the late-race accidents. The young driver has yet to really leave his mark on this track, but that looks set up to happen this Sunday afternoon. There's something to be said for being the hot hand coming into this race.

Jamie McMurray - The veteran Chip Ganassi Racing driver has been a steady hand on these superspeedways in recent races. McMurray has tended to do better on the wider grooves of Talladega than Daytona, and that sets up perfectly for this race. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has a pair of Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes in his last five starts at Talladega Superspeedway. The most recent outing yielded a brilliant runner-up finish in May's GEICO 500. McMurray is coming off Top-10 finishes in three of the four Chase races, and he's got a shot at advancing if he can turn in another good performance this Sunday afternoon. He's had the speed on these tracks, and with the playoffs in the balance, he should perform.

Kurt Busch - We look forward to the Stewart Haas Racing star's start at Talladega this weekend. He's been one of the more consistent performers on the Daytona and Talladega ovals the last three seasons. Busch's plate-track stats speak for themselves with 18 Top 10s in 33 Talladega starts. That's a strong 55-percent Top-10 rate on a track that requires as much luck as skill to succeed. The veteran driver won his first Daytona 500 earlier this year, and he finished a strong sixth at Talladega this spring. Those efforts gave him a dazzling seven Top 10s in the last 10 restrictor-plate races, by far the best in the series. The No. 41 Ford should be very fast, and Busch will know what to do with it in this race.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Talladega who can provide a solid finish

Kyle Larson - Never have the stakes been higher for Larson in a Talladega race. He comes to central Alabama second in the driver standings and vying for one of the eight playoff spots available after the conclusion of the Kansas race in two weeks. The Chip Ganassi racer has been on point since the playoffs began with fifth-, second-, fifth- and 10th-place finishes in the first four events. Talladega could be that golden ticket that locks him into the Round 8 and Larson knows it. A crash and DNF could drop him into perilous waters, and you can bet he'll be trying to avoid that. His body of work on the big ovals this season has yielded a pair of Top-15 finishes, and he knows he'll have to up his game this weekend. Larson finished sixth in this event one year ago for his second-career Talladega Top 10.

Joey Logano - The good news is that Logano has won two of the last four Talladega races, the bad news is that he's been unlucky and crashed out of his last two superspeedway starts this season. Despite all that, he's displayed that classic Penske dominance and speed on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega throughout it all. The uncertainty is the reason for the sleepers ranking this week, but we have to balance that with the homerun potential that is clearly present. Logano won this event one year ago in a very strong performance. That was his second-career win at this oval and sixth Top-10 finish. It's clear that Logano knows how to race in the draft, and be a factor at the end of these races. He could be the driver that no one sees coming in Sunday's Alabama 500.

Paul Menard - One of the more unlikely heroes this weekend will be Menard and his No. 27 Chevrolet team. The 2017 campaign in general has been nothing less than disappointing. However, the lone bright spot has been the restrictor-plate race tracks. Menards' veteran experience and Richard Childress Racing's horsepower have made these events his best of the season. The veteran driver has only three Top-10 finishes this season and all have come between Daytona and Talladega. Menard was fifth in the season-opening Daytona 500, ninth in the spring Talladega race, and brilliant third in the Daytona mid-summer classic. These numbers build on what has been a strong Talladega record later in Menard's career. Five of his six-career Top 10s at this track have come since the 2013 season.

Austin Dillon - Dillon's super speedway resume is short, but there's already a number of accomplishments here to point towards. In his first-career start at Daytona in 2014 he earned the pole position and finished ninth in his first Daytona 500. In the 17-career starts so far between Daytona and Talladega the Richard Childress Racing driver has collected seven Top-10 and 11 Top-15 finishes. That works out to a surprising 17.1 average finish for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet. Dillon has been mostly a middle-teens finisher since the Chase began, so the team is pointed in the right direction. All indicators point to a good outing for Dillon at Talladega Superspeedway.

Trevor Bayne - The 2011 Daytona 500 winner spent a number of seasons mired in malaise on these large ovals, but Bayne has had a revival the last two seasons. The No. 6 Ford has looked very competitive in all the restrictor-plate races of the last two years. Bayne has four Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts between Daytona and Talladega. That includes his strong 10th-place finish in this season's Daytona 500. Bayne led 5 laps and raced among the leaders in May at Talladega, but his luck didn't hold up as he was caught up in the lap 168 "big one". We need to brush that off and look to the speed and skill Bayne's shown on these big ovals. He's another out-perform driver for this 500-mile event.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has always been very good on super speedways. Although he established most his stats and wins as a Chevrolet driver for Richard Childress Racing, it's clear that he has the knowledge of pack racing in the draft to succeed. His three restrictor-plate starts this season have netted one Top-5 and two Top-15 finishes. Bowyer has two wins and 12-career Top 10s at Talladega Superspeedway, and that ranks him among the leaders at this facility. The veteran driver has had only one DNF at Talladega since the 2007 season, and that's some remarkable security on this high-risk oval. Considering the recent and historical numbers, we expect Bowyer to be on his game in Sunday's 500-mile melee at Talladega.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. - This may be the only time this year to give Truex a break in weekly lineup leagues. Coming off the big win at Charlotte this past week, his playoff ticket is punched to the Round of 8. That could play into this driver and team's thinking this Sunday. This is not a must-win race for the No. 78 team, and that's a good thing. The one weakness of the Furniture Row Racing star has been the superspeedway ovals. Truex hasn't scored a Top-10 finish in his last six races between Daytona and Talladega. In fact, four of those finishes across the span have been outside the Top 25. The mindboggling speed that is clearly present on the intermediate ovals has been conspicuously missing each time the series visits a restrictor-plate track. It's best to lay off any fantasy racing expectations for Truex this weekend.

Matt Kenseth - The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been a long-time performer on the big ovals, but recent seasons have seen him cool off quite a bit. Kenseth hasn't scored a Top-10 finish on a superspeedway in his last 10 starts, and he's been caught up in accidents leading to three DNFs during that time. The speed of the No. 20 Toyota hasn't been that bad, with over 100 laps led during that time, but Kenseth's luck finishing these races has been terrible at best. He led 4 laps here in May, but finished a distant 24th after that wild affair came to an end. The inconsistency and bad luck in these races hang like a cloud over any fantasy racing expectations for Kenseth this weekend.

Danica Patrick - Despite her decent performances on intermediate and small ovals to start the Chase for the Cup, we've determined this is a weekend to avoid Patrick and the No. 10 SHR team. It's become painfully clear over the last two seasons that she just doesn't excel at this style of racing. Patrick hasn't cracked the Top 10 on a superspeedway since 2014 and her last 10 starts between Daytona and Talladega look like a mine field with no finishes inside the Top 20 and six DNFs (28.5 average finish). At this point it's safe to say that Patrick should not be started in any weekly lineup leagues. There's just no upside here and way too much risk.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - It was once unthinkable to downgrade Earnhardt coming into a Talladega race, but that's where we're at in the twilight of his NASCAR career. The six-time Talladega winner hasn't seen much go right in 2017. He enters this weekend with only five Top 10s for the season and a distant 22nd in the driver standings. Not only has his overall performance suffered, but his go-to superspeedway racing has suffered as well. Earnhardt hasn't cracked the Top 10 in his last six-straight starts between Daytona and Talladega and he's collected four DNFs in that six-race span. Something has clearly gone wrong for the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet. It could be that all the concussions have finally tempered his desire to go faster than everyone else at these huge ovals.