AAA Texas 500 Preview: The Championship Clock is Ticking

NASCAR's Chase for the Cup is coming down the stretch, and this week the Monster Energy Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for a race that will be a pivotal event in crowning the next champion.  This is potentially good news for championship contender Chase Elliott.  He is in perilous waters coming to Fort Worth, and he's looking for the win and automatic berth in the championship round of the Chase at Homestead.  Considering that Elliott has had a good amount of success on these intermediate ovals since the Chase playoffs began, he should have a slugger's chance of winning and capturing one of the three available spots in the championship round of the Chase at Homestead.  After Elliott's disappointment at Martinsville this past week, he sits 44 points behind the cutoff to make the championship round on points.  So he'll be swinging for the fences in this 500-mile shootout.  His fourth- and second-place efforts at Las Vegas and Kansas recently are a good indicator that he could pull off the upset win this Sunday. 

Another driver worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is Denny Hamlin.  He is always well ranked when we visit the oval at Fort Worth, as you'll see in the statistical table below.  He and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates are the top performing Toyota drivers in the midst of many Ford and Chevrolet drivers that do exceedingly well at Texas Motor Speedway.  Hamlin was the spring winner at Texas, and he won recently at the similar oval in Kansas.  So don't put the Texas trophy in anyone's trophy case just yet.  The biggest threat to Hamlin's race and title hopes comes from none other than Martin Truex Jr. and his No. 19 team.  They are coming off the big Martinsville victory this past week, and Truex won at the similar intermediate oval in Las Vegas to kick off the Chase for the Cup.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is already locked into the championship round at Homestead, but you can guarantee he'll be going for the win Sunday afternoon.  With Truex, Hamlin and Elliott squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest will be another opportunity for an outsider to upstage these three streaking playoff drivers.  However, don't count out lesser threats like Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson.  Any of these guys could turn in a strong performance and upstage our top tier contenders. 

Since it's been several months since the last Monster Energy Cup race at the Texas oval, we need to go back and briefly visit our loop stats for this facility.  While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta and Charlotte there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons.  Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend.  Here are the loop stats for the last 29 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Denny Hamlin won the first time around at Texas Motor Speedway in March of this season, and has the chance for the season-sweep at this facility.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star took the lead from Austin Dillon during the final green-flag run and led the final 12 laps capping a strong performance in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  The No. 11 Toyota team would seem to have a decent shot at breaking out the brooms this weekend based on how Hamlin has raced of late.  His recent dominant victory at Kansas is a great barometer of where this driver and team is right now on intermediate ovals. 

A number of drivers had a good shot at victory lane at Fort Worth when we visited this intermediate oval several months ago.  Kyle Busch led 66 laps and nearly stole the show before poor pit strategy would catch up with him at the Texas tri-oval.  It was a typical performance for the No. 18 team on these cookie cutter ovals this season.  Busch has been held winless on these 1.5-mile ovals in 2019.  Erik Jones and Jimmie Johnson also threw their hats in the ring that day but would finish fourth- and fifth-place respectively.  William Byron, Clint Bowyer and Chase Elliott hounded the leaders all day long before finally falling out of contention and well within eye site of the eventual winner Hamlin.  All eyes will be fixed on Martin Truex's No. 19 Toyota team in this Sunday's AAA Texas 500 considering this veteran driver's solid loop stats at this facility and intermediate oval performances of this season.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star won at the similar sized oval in Las Vegas to start the Chase, and he was very strong at Kansas recently.  Considering that Truex is coming off an emotional win at Martinsville, the JGR star should be very motivated and strong in this 500-mile event.  All things considered, several scenarios are possible this weekend in the AAA Texas 500.  We'll take a look at the contenders for the championship and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – With a victory and five Top-5 finishes during the Chase, Hamlin has been one of the hottest drivers of the playoffs.  He's coming off a pole position and fourth-place effort at Martinsville last week.  It would seem to be the perfect time to visit an oval he won at earlier in the season.  Hamlin outmaneuvered the field and claimed his third-career Texas win in March's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  It was the second of five victories this season for the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 team.  At 38-years-old, Hamlin is having a career-best season without a doubt. Entering the stretch run of the playoffs, he's in the best position of his career to win the Monster Energy Cup Series championship.  He'll drive with real purpose in Sunday's AAA Texas 500. 

Chase Elliott – Although he suffered some bad luck at Martinsville this past weekend, and he's behind the eight-ball coming to Texas, you have to really like Elliott's chances to possibly win this week.  The No. 9 Chevrolet team has been one of the strongest performing teams during the Chase for the Cup.  Elliott's recent runner-up finish at the similar sized oval in Kansas is a good indicator of what to expect for this driver and team this weekend.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver also likes the Texas oval.  He's scored Top-10 finishes in five of his seven career-starts at Fort Worth.  Elliott still has some magic and tricks left up his sleeve for this playoff season.  The pressure of staying alive in the Chase will be a powerful motivator for this team and driver.  At this point a win is a golden ticket for Elliott to the championship round at Homestead. 

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing team and Truex have been one of the stronger teams on intermediate ovals this season.  The veteran driver has racked up two of his seven victories this season on these style 1.5-mile ovals.  He also has an eye-popping six Top-10 finishes in the nine intermediate oval events of 2019.  So when Truex is not winning, he's not far off.  At this point, the Joe Gibbs Racing star is locked into the final championship race of the Chase, so the pressure is largely off and he can relax and just race hard.  The only negative this week is that Truex has never won at Texas Motor Speedway.  Although he had never won at Martinsville either until last week's First Data 500.  This has been a monumental season for Truex, and he could just keep stacking the trophies after Sunday's AAA Texas 500.

Kyle Busch – The No. 18 Toyota team's performances on the 1.5-mile oval circuit this season have been strong and consistent, but lacking the wins we normally expect to see.  Busch has four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in the nine intermediate oval races of this year.  Our last race on an oval this size and configuration yielded a brilliant third-place finish to Busch at Kansas a couple weeks ago.  This driver and team understand they have to turn it up a notch if they hope to win and claim a championship at Homestead in a few weeks.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota is a three-time Texas winner, and he cracks the Top 10 here at a good 52-percent rate, that includes two of his last three efforts at Fort Worth.  Busch should be focused like a laser with a championship berth hanging in the balance.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – The championship quest for Harvick is still alive, but somewhat in danger coming to Texas Motor Speedway.  The veteran driver enters this weekend fifth in the Chase standings, and needing a win to advance to Homestead or at the very least a strong performance to move him up in the points.  The victory wild card can still advance him into the Championship 4, and he'll be relying on that at Texas.  Harvick will take things up a notch this weekend and hope for the best over the next two races going to Homestead.  The SHR star has been super consistent on intermediate ovals this season, scoring six Top-10 finishes in the nine events.  Harvick's last two intermediate oval starts during the Chase have yielded second- and ninth-place finishes.  The veteran driver rides a staggering 10-race Texas Top-10 streak into this weekend.   

Kyle Larson – Unlike most seasons, Larson is still alive in the Chase at this point, but hanging perilously close to elimination coming to Texas Motor Speedway.  After a gutsy Martinsville performance, he has reason to be hopeful coming into the AAA Texas 500.  On the bright side, the 1.5-mile ovals have yielded a lot of recent success to the No. 42 Chevrolet team after a slow start on these style tracks this season.  Larson has rung up four Top 10's in his last five intermediate oval starts, including 60 laps led in his last start at Kansas.  He scored an eighth-place finish at Las Vegas to kick off the Chase, so recent performance has been very strong on these cookie cutter tracks.  Larson doesn't have the greatest career stats at Texas Motor Speedway, but he did record a strong fifth-place finish in this event one year ago.  The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has the momentum and determination to overcome a lot of obstacles right now as he showed at Martinsville this past week. 

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is not locked into Homestead just yet, and he sits a perilous fourth in the playoff standings right now.  The pressure is on as we visit Texas Motor Speedway this week.  Intermediate ovals have yielded some good numbers to the No. 22 Ford team this season.  Logano has picked up one win, three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes on these style tracks in 2019.  He hasn't shown race-winning speed, but he's been consistent and usually a Top-5 threat.  His recent outing at Las Vegas yielded 105 laps led and a respectable ninth-place finish.  That's probably a good measuring stick for this weekend at Fort Worth.  He has six Top 10's in his last seven starts at Texas Motor Speedway, and a respectable career Top-10 rate of 50-percent at the Texas oval.  Logano is a safe fantasy racing play for this 500-mile battle.   

Kurt Busch – One of the most consistent Texas Motor Speedway performers throughout the years has been veteran driver Busch.  With a whopping 33-career starts at this facility, there are few active drivers running with this much experience at the Fort Worth oval.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet is not in the playoff picture this weekend, but that should hamper his performance.  Busch nabbed a sixth-place finish this past week at Martinsville despite his playoff elimination.  His 20-career Top 10's at TMS work out to a strong 61-percent Top-10 rate.  Busch rides a five-race Texas Top-10 streak into Sunday's action.  This Chip Ganassi Racing veteran sports a 67-percent Top-10 rate on these intermediate ovals this season.  That ranks him among the elite performers in the series.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Texas & solid upside

Clint Bowyer – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has performed pretty well during the Chase, until his problems at Martinsville last week. Bowyer will look to shake that off, and hit the reset button at Texas Motor Speedway.  The intermediate ovals have yielded good results to the No. 14 Ford team this season.  Bowyer has nabbed five Top 10's in nine starts, with most recently being an eighth-place finish at Kansas Speedway.  Earlier this season he was really dialed-in at TMS.  Bowyer led 3 laps that day and came home second-place to Denny Hamlin in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  That's just the latest in a number of good Texas performances for Bowyer.  His second Top-10 finish in the last three starts, and 12th-career Top 10 at the Fort Worth oval.      

Ryan Blaney – The talented Penske Racing youngster just misses making the solid plays list this week, so he'll head up the sleepers' category at Texas.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford was strong in his outing here in March, by leading 45 laps and racing among the Top 5 most of the day.  However, he didn't get the finish he deserved due to mechanical issues.  He now has three Top-10 finishes in his last four Texas starts, and an impressive 233 total laps led at this Fort Worth oval.  Currently at 15 points outside the cutoff to advance in the NASCAR playoffs, Blaney and this team will be racing with some real urgency this Sunday afternoon.  A Top-10 finish seems very likely with the high ceiling of a potential Top 5.        

William Byron – The playoffs are over for this young driver and team, but Byron isn't racing like it.  He's been one of the hottest drivers of the past couple weeks.  Byron nabbed a fifth-place finish at Kansas Speedway two weekends ago, and a brilliant fifth-place finish at the tough oval of Martinsville last week.  Now the No. 24 team will look to keep the ball rolling at Texas Motor Speedway.  Byron's best tracks this season have been the cookie cutter ovals.  They have yielded five of his 13 Top-10 finishes to-date.  His last two outings in particular have been great with finishes of seventh- and fifth-place at Las Vegas and Kansas.  Byron's two-career Top 10's in three starts at the Texas oval shows that he likes this track.  He led 15 laps here in March en route to a strong sixth-place finish.        

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has a boat load of career stats at Texas Motor Speedway with seven-career wins and 22 Top-10 finishes.  It's one of his top intermediate ovals on the circuit.  The seven-time champion's strong start here in March yielded a pole position, 60 laps led and a brilliant fifth-place finish.  That effort snapped a three-race Top-10 drought for Johnson at Texas.  He looked like the Johnson of old that day at TMS.  Intermediate ovals in general have been really good tracks for the No. 48 Chevrolet team this season.  Johnson and company own five Top 10's in the nine starts to-date.  The most recent being a solid 10th-place finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago.  The Hendrick Motorsports star is a steady fantasy racing play this weekend with really good upside.   

Erik Jones – The wildly talented Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has made a good season out of racing on these cookie cutter tracks.  Jones has six Top 10's in nine starts this season on the 1.5-mile ovals.  His last outing was strong with a seventh-place finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago.  Also, Jones last outing at Texas Motor Speedway was pretty memorable.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota led 30 laps here in March and finished a brilliant fourth that afternoon in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  Jones now has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last four trips to Fort Worth.  This track is quickly becoming one of his favorite intermediate ovals on the circuit.  Don't let Jones' struggles at Martinsville this past week discourage you from fantasy racing deployment at Texas. 

Ryan Newman – This is a good portion of the schedule for Newman.  Tracks like Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix have always been good tracks for the Roush Fenway Racing veteran, so it's never a surprise to see him close a season strong.  Newman is a one-time Texas winner, and he has six-career Top-10 finishes at the facility.  The last came in 2016.  His intermediate oval outings down the stretch have erased some of the struggles that the No. 6 team had early in the season on 1.5-mile ovals.  Newman has a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last three 1.5-mile oval starts.  He raced to a respectable 11th-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway in the spring, so there shouldn't be much trouble duplicating that effort this weekend.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – Despite a great effort at Martinsville this past week, we have to recommend benching the No. 2 Penske Racing Ford team at Texas this Sunday.  Keselowski has been uneven in recent 1.5-mile track performances, despite winning a couple times earlier in the season on these style tracks.  His last three efforts have been 20th-, third- and 19th-place finishes at Kentucky, Las Vegas and Kansas.  Texas Motor Speedway in particular has been one of his more challenging intermediate tracks.  Keselowski has labored to just eight Top 10's here in 22 starts (36-percent).  That makes Texas his least successful intermediate oval in his resume.  Riding a three-race Top-10 drought at the Fort Worth track entering the weekend is no less discouraging.    

Daniel Suarez – The intermediate ovals have been tough tracks for Suarez and his No. 41 Stewart Haas Racing team this season.  The young driver has only collected three Top 10's in the nine starts to-date.  His most recent outings have netted 20th- and 32nd-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas.  This level of performance parallels the lean times Suarez has experienced during the Chase.  He has just one Top-10 finish in his last seven starts, and coming off a discouraging 31st-place finish at Martinsville.  Right now Suarez and this race team are struggling enough to warrant a fantasy racing bench for Sunday's AAA Texas 500. 

Darrell Wallace Jr. – The intermediate ovals have been nothing less than a house of horrors for Wallace and the No. 43 Chevrolet team.  Since it's Halloween week, we suppose that's an appropriate reference.  He has no finishes inside the Top 20 and four finishes outside the Top 25 this season in nine starts on these cookie cutter ovals.  The average finish is checking in around an inflated 26.2.  Wallace's last outing was a particularly disappointing crash and DNF at Kansas Speedway just a couple weeks ago.  The Richard Petty Motorsports driver's last two Texas starts yielded 25th- and 23rd-place finishes.  The bad news is, that's likely the ceiling for this driver and team this weekend.    

Austin Dillon – The Richard Childress Racing driver is experiencing one of the worst campaigns of his six-season Cup Series career.  With just five Top-10 finishes to-date, Dillon finds himself a distant 23rd in the driver point standings coming to Texas.  The news this week that No. 3 team crew chief, Danny Stockman, will no longer guide the team after 2019 is validation enough that there's a problem here.  Dillon's one-career Texas Top 10 in 13 starts (21.5 average finish) is nothing to write home about either.  In summary, this is a struggling driver and team visiting one of their poorer tracks on the circuit.