AAA Texas 500 Preview: The Round of 8 at Texas

This is potentially great news for championship contender Martin Truex Jr. He is thick in the middle of the Chase battle coming to Fort Worth, and he's looking for the win and automatic berth in the championship round of the Chase at Homestead. Considering that Truex has had a tremendous amount of success on these intermediate ovals the last three seasons, he should be in good position for one of the remaining championship playoff berths. When we note that one of his four victories this season have come by way of these 1.5-mile tracks, we notice that's a bit less than his norm. However, what happened this past weekend at Martinsville to the No. 78 team will be a powerful motivator for a very focused and emotional driver and team this week. Truex has yet to win at this oval, but he's been incredibly close on multiple occasions the last couple years. He's led a ton of laps at Texas in the last five events, and that shouldn't be overlooked.

Another driver in the Toyota camp worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is Kyle Busch. He is always well ranked when we visit the oval at Fort Worth, as you'll see in the statistical table below. He and Denny Hamlin are the other two top performing Toyota drivers in the midst of many Ford and Chevrolet drivers that do exceedingly well at Texas Motor Speedway. So don't put the cup in anyone's trophy case just yet. The biggest threat to Truex's race and title hopes comes from none other than Kevin Harvick and his No. 4 Ford team. They won this event at Fort Worth one year ago, and Harvick has piled up three victories this season on 1.5-mile ovals. The Stewart Haas Racing star is in great position to advance to Homestead on points alone, but you can guarantee he'll be going for that win Sunday afternoon that would automatically qualify him for the championship round at Homestead. With Truex, Harvick and Busch squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest will be another prize for the "big three." However, don't count out lesser threats like Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott. Any of these guys could turn in a strong performance and upstage our top tier drivers.

Since it's been several months since the last Monster Energy Cup race at the Texas oval, we need to go back and briefly visit our loop stats for this facility. While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta and Charlotte there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons. Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 27 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

A number of drivers had a good shot at victory lane at Fort Worth when we visited this intermediate oval several months ago. Kevin Harvick led 87 laps and nearly stole the show before finally finishing second at the Texas tri-oval. It was a typical performance for the No. 4 team on these cookie cutter ovals this season. Erik Jones and Kurt Busch also threw their hats in the ring that day but would finish fourth- and seventh-place respectively. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano hounded the leaders all day long before finally finishing a strong fifth- and sixth-place respectively and well within eye site of the eventual winner Busch. All eyes will be fixed on Martin Truex's No. 78 Toyota team in this Sunday's AAA Texas 500 considering this veteran driver's solid loop stats at this facility and intermediate oval performances of this season. The Furniture Row Racing star won at the similar sized oval in Kentucky during the summer, and he's recently registered third- and fifth-place finishes at the intermediate ovals of Las Vegas and Kansas. Considering that Truex is coming off the tough loss last week at Martinsville, the FRR star should be very motivated and strong in this 500-mile event. All things considered, several scenarios are possible this weekend in the AAA Texas 500. We'll take a look at the contenders for the championship and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch - The No. 18 Toyota team's performances on the 1.5-mile oval circuit this season have been strong and consistent. Busch has three victories, six Top-5 and nine Top-10 finishes in the nine intermediate oval races of this year. During the Chase for the Cup he's been good but not great on these style tracks. Finishes of seventh- and second-place have been his body of work. However, it is noteworthy that the best of those came in our last event at Kansas Speedway. Busch didn't lead any laps, but he maintained good track position and was around at the end to run down and challenge race-winner Chase Elliott. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota is a three-time Texas winner, and he cracks the Top 10 here at a good 52-percent rate, that includes six of his last eight efforts at Fort Worth. Busch should be focused like a laser with a championship berth hanging in the balance.

Martin Truex Jr. - The Furniture Row Racing team and Truex have been one of the stronger teams on intermediate ovals this season. The veteran driver has racked up one of his four victories this season on these style 1.5-mile ovals. He also has an eye-popping eight Top-5 finishes in the nine intermediate oval events of 2018. So when Truex is not winning, he's not far off. At this point, the Furniture Row Racing star has his back to the wall in terms of advancing in the Chase. The emotions and pressure for this driver and team are high coming into the AAA Texas 500. The only negative this week is that Truex has never won at Texas Motor Speedway, although he's come very close the last couple seasons. He's led well over 350 laps in his last five Texas starts, and he finished runner-up in this event one year ago.

Kevin Harvick - The championship quest for Harvick is still alive, but somewhat in danger coming to Texas Motor Speedway. The veteran driver enters this weekend fourth in the Chase standings, and needing a win to advance to Homestead or at the very least a strong performance to keep him high in the points. The victory wild card can still advance him into the Championship 4, and he'll be relying on that at Texas. Harvick will take things up a notch this weekend and hope for the best over the next two races going to Homestead. The SHR star has been super consistent on intermediate ovals this season, scoring three victories and six Top-10 finishes in the nine events. Harvick's last two intermediate oval starts during the Chase have been disappointing, and we hope that's fuel for his team this weekend. He should swing for the fences in Sunday's AAA Texas 500.

Chase Elliott - Although he was good and not great at Martinsville this past weekend, and he's behind the eight-ball coming to Texas, you have to really like Elliott's chances to possibly win this week. The No. 9 Chevrolet team has been one of the strongest performing teams during the Chase for the Cup. Elliott's recent win at the similar sized oval in Kansas is a good indicator of what to expect for this driver and team this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports driver also likes the Texas oval. He's scored Top-10 finishes in four of his five career-starts at Fort Worth. Elliott still has some magic and tricks left up his sleeve for this playoff season. The pressure of staying alive in the Chase will be a powerful motivator for this team and driver.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Brad Keselowski - Despite falling a bit short, late at Martinsville last week, the No. 2 Ford team will regroup and shoot for the best possible finish at Texas this week. Keselowski has one victory and seven Top-10 finishes on intermediate ovals this season, with close to 200 laps led. That shows that this driver and team are one of the best in the Monster Energy Cup Series at these style tracks. With only eight Top 10s in 20 starts at this oval, Texas has not been the best track over his career, but recent performances have been outstanding. Two of Keselowski's last three visits to Fort Worth have netted Top-10 finishes. With this driver and team's current level of performance, we expect to see this Penske Racing star racing among the leaders at TMS this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Larson - After his Chase for the Cup elimination at Kansas, Larson could have packed it in, but he didn't. However, the Chip Ganassi Racing driver has been performing inconsistently at best throughout the Chase. Some weeks are great runs, others not-so-much. He'll attempt to hit the reset button here at Texas this weekend. On the bright side, the 1.5-mile ovals have yielded a lot of success to the No. 42 Chevrolet team this season. Larson has rung up eight Top-10 finishes in those nine events to-date. He scored second- and third-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas during the Chase, so recent performance has been very strong on these cookie cutter tracks. Larson's start at Texas Motor Speedway in April resulted in a crash and DNF, but he had great speed. If there's a rebound in the offing this will be the place for Larson and the team to have it.

Kurt Busch - One of the most consistent Texas Motor Speedway performers throughout the years has been veteran driver Busch. With a whopping 31-career starts at this facility, there are few active drivers running with this much experience at the Fort Worth oval. The driver of the No. 41 Ford has a lot at stake this weekend with regards to the playoffs. Busch needs a good performance to keep his championship hopes alive. His 18-career Top 10s at TMS work out to a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. Busch has won the last two-straight pole positions at this facility, and he led 40 laps here in the spring before finishing seventh that afternoon. This Stewart Haas Racing star has figured out a few things about racing this oval the last couple seasons, and he'll employ them in Sunday's AAA Texas 500.

Joey Logano - The Penske Racing star is the first driver locked into Homestead and the Championship 4 with his win at Martinsville last week. The pressure is off this week, but Logano will want to keep his sword sharp with a good performance at Texas Motor Speedway. Intermediate ovals have yielded some good numbers to the No. 22 Ford team this season. Logano has picked up two Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes on these style tracks in 2018. He hasn't shown race-winning speed, but he's been consistent and good. His outing in Fort Worth this spring saw this driver and team turn a seventh-place qualifying spot into a strong sixth-place finish. That brings his Texas totals to 10 Top-10 finishes in 20 starts, and an eye-catching five-race Texas Top-10 streak entering this weekend's action. Logano is a safe fantasy racing play for this 500-mile battle.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Texas who can provide a solid finish

Ryan Blaney - The talented Penske Racing youngster just misses making the solid plays list this week, so he'll head up the sleepers category at Texas. The driver of the No. 12 Ford was strong in his outing here in April, by racing inside the Top 5 all afternoon and finishing fifth at the end of the day. That now gives Blaney a two-race Texas Top-10 streak heading into this weekend. His earlier starts at this oval were forgettable, but since his move to Penske Racing, Blaney has really taken off at Texas Motor Speedway. This driver and team have five Top 10s on the intermediate ovals this season, so they've been good tracks for this outfit. That puts Blaney's season Top-10 percentage at 56-percent at these style ovals.

Erik Jones - The wildly talented Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has made a good season out of racing on these cookie cutter tracks. Jones has six Top 10s in nine starts this season on the 1.5-mile ovals. His last outing was strong with a fourth-place finish at Kansas Speedway a couple weeks ago. Also, Jones last outing at Texas Motor Speedway was pretty memorable. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota led 64 laps here in April and finished a brilliant fourth that afternoon in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. Jones now has two Top 10s in his last two visits to Fort Worth. This track is quickly becoming one of his favorite intermediate ovals on the circuit. Don't let Jones' struggles at Martinsville this past week discourage you from fantasy racing deployment at Texas.

Aric Almirola - The intermediate ovals have been tracks for Almirola and his No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing team this season. The veteran driver has racked up five Top-10 and seven Top-15 finishes in these nine events. His last two outings of the Chase on 1.5-mile tracks have yielded sixth- and 10th-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas. The fact that Almirola is still alive in the Chase for the Cup playoffs will surely be a motivating factor this Sunday. His crash and DNF at Texas Motor Speedway in April should not deter fantasy racing expectations for this driver and team this weekend. Almirola is a steady Top-15 play for the AAA Texas 500.

Jamie McMurray - The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is racing for a new ride next season, so these closing events of 2018 are audition time for McMurray to show off his driving skills for any suitors. Intermediate ovals have been sort of hit-or-miss for this driver and team this season with only two Top-10 and six Top-20 finishes this season. However, McMurray is coming off a decent run in his last cookie cutter oval start with the 17th-place finish at Kansas a couple weeks ago. The good news is that Texas Motor Speedway has been one of his favorite tracks the last few seasons. McMurray finished a brilliant third-place there in the spring, and that now gives him five Top 10s in the last eight starts at the Fort Worth speedway. All signs point towards a good performance for the No. 1 CGR team.

Ryan Newman - This is a good portion of the schedule for Newman. Tracks like Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix have always been good tracks for the Richard Childress Racing veteran, so it's never a surprise to see him close a season strong. Newman is a one-time Texas winner, and he has six-career Top-10 finishes at the facility. The last came in 2016. His intermediate oval outings down the stretch have erased some of the struggles that the No. 31 team had early in the season on 1.5-mile ovals. Newman's last four efforts span Chicago, Kentucky, Las Vegas and Kansas, and they yielded 15th-, 21st-, ninth- and 15th-place finishes. That works out to a steady 15.0 average finish. That's a good mark to expect this Sunday afternoon.

Austin Dillon - The other Richard Childress Racing driver also has been improving on the cookie cutter tracks down the stretch. After some early season struggles associated with the new Chevy Camaro, Dillon has been bearing down and improving in the latter third of the season. He's picked up a pair of 11th-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas during the Chase, and Dillon has been quite visible and among the leaders on similar ovals. Texas Motor Speedway hasn't been the best oval for the No. 3 team over the years, but recent outings have shown some promise. Dillon was a surprise pole winner here in 2016, and he finished a respectable 13th-place in this event one year ago. We believe he'll push the Top 10 and easily crack the Top 15 there this weekend.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin - This might be the first time all season we've featured Hamlin in the slow down list. It's been a winless season for the No. 11 JGR team, but Hamlin has nabbed his share of Top 10s with 17, so that's made him useful in fantasy racing most weekends. However, this veteran driver has been inconsistent at best on these style tracks throughout the season. Hamlin has four Top-10 finishes in the nine events to date, and two DNF's. That brings his season average finish to a decent 14.7, but that's still below our expectations for this driver and team on these style tracks. Hamlin's last three starts on 1.5-mile ovals have netted 16th-, 32nd- and 14th-place finishes. That's a bad trend heading into the final quarter of the season. His last few seasons at Texas have been a real mixed bag, but we have trouble looking past his crash and 34th-place finish here in the spring.

Jimmie Johnson - Whatever is affecting Johnson and the No. 48 Chevrolet team this season, it's been most evident on the intermediate ovals. His nine starts have tallied only one Top-10 finish and only four Top-15 finishes this season. Johnson's last two outings at these style ovals were a pair of subpar 22nd-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas during the Chase. Something is clearly wrong right now with this team's intermediate oval program. Johnson has a boat load of career stats at Texas Motor Speedway with seven-career wins and 21 Top-10 finishes. However, don't be duped by those numbers. His last two Texas starts have netted 27th- and 35th-place finishes. It's best to stay away from the Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 team this weekend.

Darrell Wallace Jr. - After some early-season promising runs, including an eighth-place finish at Texas in April, Wallace has fallen on hard times coming down the stretch run. Both of his Top-10 finishes came in the first seven races of the season, and now Wallace has only cracked the Top 20 once in the last 15 events. He's slipped all the way to 28th-place in the driver standings coming to Texas. The last half of the season has been tough for the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet on intermediate ovals. Finishes of 23rd-, 27th-, 38th- and 26th-place have been his body of work at Chicago, Kentucky, Las Vegas and Kansas. Hopes for a repeat performance of his April outing at Texas Motor Speedway would be overly optimistic. The learning curve continues this weekend for this young driver and challenged team.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - The long 2018 season is drawing to a close for the inconsistent No. 17 team of Roush Fenway Racing. Stenhouse is on pace to post a three-season low in Top 10s this year. Despite coming off a couple Top-20 runs at Kansas and Martinsville, we have to recommend against starting Stenhouse in your fantasy racing lineups this weekend. Cookie cutter ovals have been a mixed bag for this driver and team this season. Stenhouse has only cracked the Top 20 once in his last three starts on these size ovals. Texas Motor Speedway in particular has been a tough nut to crack for this veteran driver over the years. Stenhouse has no Top 10s and just three Top-15 finishes here in 11-career starts. The average finish stands at a subpar 20.4. We believe he'll check in around or worse than that mark in Sunday's AAA Texas 500.