AAA 400 Preview: Taming the Monster

With this being the first race of 2018 at the Monster Mile, the learning curve will be steep this weekend. Those teams that can adapt to the practice feedback the quickest will be the ones to succeed this Sunday afternoon. This is race number 11 of the season, so urgency to better one's position in the driver standings will pick up the pace at the Dover oval. We'll surely see some of that urgency in the racing this Sunday afternoon at the Monster Mile.

Since this is our first race of the season at Dover, we need to check in briefly with the electronic loop stats from this high-banked oval. Current trends at this track should hold pretty true to form this weekend. The Dover oval is such a unique animal that those who have historically performed well here tend to edge out those current streaking drivers. Dover had favored one particular manufacturer for the last couple seasons, that of Toyota. However, things can change quickly and without warning at the Monster Mile. There are several suitors from Ford and Chevrolet that could tip the balance of power at this oval back in their favor. They are easily identified in the table below. The loop stats cover the last 13 years or 26 races at Dover International Speedway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch - Busch saw his three-race win streak come to an end at Talladega this past week, but he could easily get back to his winning ways at Dover. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota is a three-time winner at DIS, and he sports a staggering 46-percent Top-5 rate at the track. Busch's victory here last October has rekindled his excellence at the Monster Mile. The Joe Gibbs Racing star led 30 laps, and held off Chase Elliott to capture that win in the Apache Warrior 400. Busch has won or finished runner-up in three of the last five events at Dover International Speedway. Considering that he won a few short weeks ago on the highly banked oval of Bristol, you have to like Busch's chances at Dover. That recent level of performance makes him the driver to beat for Sunday's AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

Martin Truex Jr. - The driver of the No. 78 Toyota has been hit-or-miss the last few weeks between the short tracks and the expansive oval of Talladega. There's good reason believe he'll rebound to contender status once again this weekend at Dover. The one-mile oval has been one of his better tracks during his 13-season Monster Energy Cup Series career. Truex has three pole positions, two victories and 13 Top-10 finishes in his 24 starts at the Monster Mile. That works out to a strong 13.3 average finish for his career at the Delaware oval. The Furniture Row Racing star has won or finished inside the Top 4 in his last three consecutive starts at DIS, and over that span he's led a whopping 340 laps. Truex has grown to love racing this track later in his career, and we don't see that changing in this 400-lap battle.

Kyle Larson - Talladega was a complete disaster for the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing team. Larson had a decent car, but racing back in the pack has its perils at Dega as Larson found out the hard way. The talented youngster will look to rebound at one of his better small ovals this Sunday. Larson has just eight-career starts at the Monster Mile, but they're starts that are packed full with results. He has two runner-up finishes, four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in those efforts. That puts his average finish at a sparkling 7.9 at the facility. In this event one year ago, Larson piloted the No. 42 Chevrolet to 241 laps led and a runner-up finish to Jimmie Johnson. You can bet the notes from that performance will come in handy for this driver and team again at Dover International Speedway.

Chase Elliott - The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team has been on the upswing in recent races. Finishes of second- and third-place the last two weeks foretell something big on the horizon for Elliott. He should be fast once again at the Monster Mile this week. The young driver has made only four-career starts at Dover International Speedway, but they've been eye-popping efforts. Elliott has four Top-5 finishes in those starts, with the most impressive being his last performance. He qualified 12th on the starting grid and finished runner-up after leading 138 laps in last October's Apache Warrior 400. That could be a good indicator of what to expect this weekend in the AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Jimmie Johnson - The 11-time Dover winner can never be overlooked when visiting the Monster Mile. While he hasn't shown the race-winning touch in some time, Johnson is gradually getting better each week. His two Top 10s in the last three events show the gathering momentum of the No. 48 team. Johnson loves the high-speed mixing bowl in Delaware, as his 3,100+ career laps led attests. So this is the perfect oval for the No. 48 team to visit given their current level of performance. If by some chance Johnson isn't in the running for the win in the closing laps, his staggering 53-percent Top-5 rate at the one-mile oval is a very reassuring statistic that he won't fall far into the field.

Brad Keselowski - The Penske Racing star is looking to rebound after his crash and poor finish at Talladega last Sunday. Keselowski has shown some flashes of brilliance on the high banks of Dover. The career numbers and even loop stats aren't that impressive for the driver of the No. 2 Ford, but his ability to finish well at this one-mile oval is undeniable. Keselowski has one victory, two runner-up finishes and seven-career Top 10s at Dover International Speedway. His last effort at DIS tallied 39 laps led and a respectable 10th-place finish in last season's Apache Warrior 400. Keselowski isn't a major threat to win, but he should peddle that No. 2 Ford to yet another Top-10 finish.

Denny Hamlin - The Joe Gibbs Racing star as well as his teammates at JGR have enjoyed tremendous success at the Monster Mile in recent seasons. Hamlin has been improving at the one-mile oval and the recent statistics bear this out. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota owns nine-career Top-10 finishes at this facility, and three of those have come in just the last four visits to the Delaware oval. In this event one year ago Hamlin qualified inside the Top 10, and raced there most of the day before finishing a respectable eighth. That's been typical of his recent outings at the Monster Mile. After a dissatisfying 14th-place finish at Talladega, you can bet Hamlin will be one motivated driver visiting a one-mile oval.

Joey Logano - The Penske Racing driver is riding the momentum of his big Talladega victory into this weekend's action at Dover. Logano has quite a streak of recent consistency at the Monster Mile coming into the AAA 400 Drive for Autism this Sunday afternoon. Logano has 10-career Top-10 finishes at DIS, and that places his career Top-10 rate at 56-percent at this challenging facility. The driver of the No. 22 Ford enters the Dover race second in the driver standings and looking to improve his position in the Chase. These are all encouraging indicators for the young driver. With the recent career record at the Monster Mile it's difficult to imagine that Logano won't be racing among the leaders this Sunday afternoon.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Dover who can provide a solid finish

Kevin Harvick - One of the biggest wildcards in the deck is Harvick and his No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team. He's not one for big stats at this one-mile oval, in fact, he's just barely inside the Top 10 in driver rating in the above table. However, Harvick is racing about as well right now as anyone in the Monster Energy Cup Series. The veteran driver has four Top-5 finishes during his current five-race Top-10 streak. Harvick's career resume at the Monster Mile is lacking, but has shown signs of dramatic improvement the last few seasons. With one pole, one win, one runner-up finish and well over 563 laps led in the last three seasons at this facility, the Stewart Haas Racing star is poised to be an impact driver in this 400-lap battle.

Aric Almirola - The Stewart Haas Racing veteran is becoming a weekly fantasy racing play in weekly lineup leagues. Almirola now has four Top 10s this season, and comes to Dover a lofty 11th in the overall driver standings. His career work at the Monster Mile has been fairly decent with three Top 10s in 11-career starts and a respectable 17.0 average finish. Take into account these numbers have been accumulated with much lesser-equipped teams than the No. 10 Ford team he comes to Dover with this weekend. Almirola finished an impressive sixth recently as the high banked oval of Bristol, and that's a great indicator of potential for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has been rejuvenating his career in 2018. His one win and six Top 10s have him on pace for his best season since 2013. The driver of the No. 14 Ford has been building quite a Dover resume over the years. Bowyer has 13 Top-10 finishes in 24-career starts, which works out to a strong 54-percent rate. Even when he's not finishing inside the Top 10, he's staying on the lead lap and proving to be competitive. Bowyer has only two finishes outside the Top 15 since the 2011 season at Dover International Speedway. In his last start at the Monster Mile, Bower earned a great sixth-place finish in last year's Apache Warrior 400. It wouldn't be surprising to see him turn in a similar performance this Sunday afternoon.

Ryan Newman - The 40-year-old veteran just continues to prove his worth in terms of fantasy racing with his good performances in 2018. Newman's Top-10 finish at Bristol, and his Top-10 finish last weekend at Talladega are good examples of this fact. He's no longer a threat to win races, but he's visiting the Top 10 or Top 15 more often than not most weeks. Newman's three-career victories and 14 Top-10 finishes at Dover make this one of his more successful ovals in his 16 years of NASCAR racing. He finished a stellar fourth in this event one year ago, and the RCR veteran returned in the fall and recorded a steady 13th-place finish in that 400-lap battle. He brings surprising value to the table this weekend at DIS.

Daniel Suarez - Coming off consecutive Top 10s at Richmond and Talladega, Suarez brings some momentum to the Monster Mile this week. The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team is clearly heating up. Suarez made his first two-career starts at Dover last season, and enjoyed instant success. He recorded surprising sixth- and eighth-place finishes in those two starts. It seems that high banked ovals are really to this young Mexican's liking. Recently, Suarez nabbed a respectable 11th-place finish at the similarly configured oval in Bristol, Tennessee. This surging young driver is making a very timely visit to Dover International Speedway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - The driver of the No. 17 Ford doesn't have the career accolades at the Monster Mile that these other drivers have, but he certainly is a pick to click this weekend. Highly banked ovals have been a favorite of this veteran driver, and his Bristol stats back this fact up. Stenhouse recently finished a stellar fourth at Bristol Motor Speedway, and he's coming off the momentum of a strong Top-5 Talladega performance. The momentum is unmistakable coming into this Dover race. Given his current level of performance we believe Stenhouse is a stealth buy low candidate for Dover International Speedway. He should buck his career trends at this one-mile oval this Sunday.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kurt Busch - Despite collecting a brilliant runner-up finish this past weekend at Talladega, it may be a bit surprising to see Busch in the slow down list this week. However, this one-mile oval has been a career-long struggle for the Stewart Haas Racing veteran. Busch has only nine Top 10s in 35-career starts at Dover International Speedway. That works out to a lowly 26-percent Top-10 rate at the Monster Mile. He's failed to crack the Top 10 in his last three visits to the Delaware oval. Busch's seven-career DNF's here make it almost as likely that he won't finish this weekend as opposed to cracking the Top 10. The veteran driver has much better tracks on the circuit, so give him a bench this weekend, and save Busch for deployment somewhere else in the schedule.

A.J. Allmendinger - This has been an inconsistent season so far for the JTG Daugherty Racing veteran. Allmendinger comes to Dover 24th in the driver standings with only two Top-10 finishes so far this season. This is another weekend to use caution with the No. 47 team. The Monster Mile is one of Allmendinger's worst tracks on the circuit. With just three Top-10 finishes in 20-career starts, his average finish sits around a disappointing 23.0. The veteran driver has only cracked the Top 20 twice in his last nine visits to the Delaware oval. This is a good weekend to give the Dinger a break in weekly fantasy racing lineup leagues.

Ryan Blaney - It's difficult to slot Blaney in the slow down list this week. He's been a real surprise this season, and has been very impressive on the larger ovals. However, the one-mile and smaller tracks have always presented challenges to the driver of the No. 12 Penske Racing Ford. His recent crash and DNF with a very strong race car at Bristol are illustrative of this point. Blaney has one-career Top 10 in four starts at Dover International Speedway, and the other three starts were finishes outside the Top 20. He's yet to lead a single lap at this tough one-mile oval. He may surprise us this weekend, but given his track record we believe it highly unlikely that Blaney will be a top performer in the AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

Kasey Kahne - After some uneven performances the last several races, the veteran driver has slipped from 27th to 29th in the overall driver standings. Kahne has been most burdened on the smaller ovals as his results show. The recent DNF and 34th-place finish on the high banks of Bristol are an example of this fact. Now he comes to the Monster Mile looking to turn things around. The veteran driver has a lowly 29-percent Top-10 rate at Dover over 14 seasons of racing. That's a mark that's well below the expected rate for a veteran driver. This Sunday afternoon Kahne should come in somewhere outside of his 18.5 average finish mark at Dover, and that's less than desirable for fantasy racing deployment.