What a regular season we had in 2023. We had driver feuds, thrilling action on intermediate tracks, frustrating racing on short tracks and road courses, drivers missing races due to injury, underdog stories, breakout seasons, and big penalties. Drivers like William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. have been racking up playoff points to take with them throughout the three rounds of the playoffs in the hope to get to Phoenix with a chance to race for the title.
When the 16-man playoff field was set there was certainly a few surprises. It kicked off right away when Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the Daytona 500 and locked himself and JTG Daugherty Racing into the playoffs. Michael McDowell and Front Row Motorsports also reached the postseason thanks to their win at another historic venue in Indianapolis Motor Speedway. After both cars failed to reach the postseason a year ago, RFK Racing got both Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski in and have really emerged as the top Ford team in the garage throughout the summer. Buescher enters the playoffs having won three of the last five races.
With some unexpected drivers in that means that there are also a few notable omissions. None were bigger than 2020 champion Chase Elliott, who missed six races after a snowboarding accident. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman also missed three races due to a back injury suffered in a sprint car accident and failed to make the postseason. It was the first time since 2016 that HMS did not put at least three cars in the playoffs.
2022 Xfinity Series champion Ty Gibbs continued to get better throughout the season, but did not have quite enough to make the playoffs as a rookie. This marks the second straight year that Joe Gibbs Racing has failed to put all four cars in the playoffs. That's still much better than what Stewart-Haas Racing has been recently. Kevin Harvick was able to point his way into the playoffs, but their other three drivers were 23rd, 26th, and 31st in points. It's the first time since SHR switched to four teams in 2014 that they haven't had multiple drivers in the playoffs.
The unique part about NASCAR's postseason is that the playoff teams still race against all the other non-playoff eligible teams like they did the first 26 races. While nobody wants to take out a playoff driver, it really gives drivers and teams the ability to be aggressive and try to get a win. We saw in the Round of 16 last year all three races won by drivers who did not make the playoffs. In fact five of the ten playoff races were won by drivers that were eliminated from playoff contention.
With the table now set, let's take a look at the playoff grid going into the Southern 500 at Darlington this weekend. The bottom four drivers at the end of the Round of 16, Round of 12, and Round of 8 will be eliminated and a win by a playoff-eligible driver in any of the three races will automatically advance them to the next round.
Playoff Standings
- William Byron (2,036 points)
- Martin Truex Jr. (2,036)
- Denny Hamlin (2,025)
- Chris Buescher (2,021)
- Kyle Busch (2,019)
- Kyle Larson (2,017)
- Christopher Bell (2,014)
- Ross Chastain (2,011)
- Brad Keselowski (2,010)
- Tyler Reddick (2,009)
- Joey Logano (2,008)
- Ryan Blaney (2,008)
- Michael McDowell (2,007)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2,005)
- Kevin Harvick (2,004)
- Bubba Wallace (2,000)
Round of 16
Tracks: Darlington, Kansas, Bristol
The Round of 16 is arguably the most entertaining of all the playoff rounds. You got 16 drivers who think if they execute well, and have some luck on their side, they can advance all the way to Phoenix and have a shot at the championship. On the flip side, every year we see one or two drivers that many people consider championship favorites get eliminated in the Round of 16 by making mistakes or getting caught up in accidents.
Each of the tracks in the Round of 16 present different challenges. The Southern 500 at Darlington is one of the longest races of the year and will test man and machine to the limit on one of the most abrasive surfaces on the schedule. Then we go to a high-speed 1.5 mile track in Kansas that we will see drivers be able to utilize the entire track to make passes. The Round of 16 closes in dramatic fashion at the Bristol Night Race where drivers and teams will have to negotiate the high-banked half-mile bullring.
The top-three drivers most of the season have been William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., and Denny Hamlin. Given their advantage in playoff points and speed on each of the tracks in the Round of 16, I can't see any of them stumbling. Some drivers seeded toward the back that I see having a good round and advancing would be Bubba Wallace and Kevin Harvick. The Toyota's have shown a ton of speed the last few months and Wallace did win at Kansas last year. In Harvick's case I don't think they have the speed of some of the other drivers around him in points, but that team has so much experience and do not make mistakes.
Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick all concern me going into the playoffs. Most weeks the speed isn't the issue with these guys, but they all have had so many pit road problems and have made careless decisions on track at times. I think you could make a case for any of these four drivers making the Championship 4, but I could just as easily see one or more of them failing to make it out of the Round of 16.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Michael McDowell were both nice stories, but they will need some mistakes by drivers above them in points to advance out of this round. Penske has been down virtually all season from what they showed last year and I think one of their two drivers in the playoffs fails to make the cut. Ryan Blaney has been much more prone to mistakes than Joey Logano and I think he ends up with another playoff disappointment.
Eliminated: Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Michael McDowell
Round of 12
Tracks: Texas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval
Drivers Remaining: William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace
For the 12 drivers fortunate enough to advance, this is certainly a wildcard round. Texas is a pretty standard 1.5 mile track, but we saw numerous tire issues here a season ago. Then you have Talladega, which is naturally unpredictable, and finally the Charlotte Roval which has always given us chaos as a cutoff race.
The key to this round is to get off to a good start at Texas. If you can qualify well, score stage points, and get a top-10, you're going to be in a good spot going to two races where anything can happen. I'm pretty confident about Byron, Truex, Hamlin, Larson, and Reddick due to their speed on 1.5 mile tracks this year and ability on road courses. I also think it's pretty clear that RFK has had the best speed of any team on the superspeedways this season, so I'm confident riding with Buescher and Keselowski, especially given how both cars are running every single week now.
I think it's five guys for one spot, Bell, Chastain, Logano, Harvick, and Wallace. In that scenario I trust Joey Logano the most. Even though the speed on a lot of the intermediate tracks hasn't been there, the combination of Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe can find a way to make up for it. On top of that he is arguably the best restrictor plate racer in the sport and it would not shock anyone if he got his spot in the Round of 8 by winning Talladega.
Eliminated: Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace
Round of 8
Tracks: Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville
Drivers: William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano
If you get to the Round of 8, you better be good on the 1.5 mile tracks. There are two of them to kick the round off, and why both present different challenges, we tend to see the same drivers run up front at both race tracks. The fall Martinsville race has turned into perhaps the most exciting race on the calendar. There is tempers, beating-and-banging, and a lot of pressure to try to win to race for a championship. Drivers will do anything just as we saw last year with Ross Chastain pulling the "Hail Melon" on the final turn to gain multiple spots and make the transfer.
Right from the top, I am locking Byron and Larson into the Championship 4. Both drivers have a win at all three of these tracks in the last three seasons and they set up so well for Hendrick Motorsports. From there it is just a question of if anyone else can knock off Martin Truex Jr. or Denny Hamlin, who each also have multiple wins at these three tracks and have a playoff points cushion.
I really just don't see it. I think the three Ford drivers remaining will lose a lot of ground to Byron, Larson, Truex, and Hamlin at Las Vegas and Homestead. While they should fair better at Martinsville and could potentially lock up a spot in the Championship 4 with a win, that's a hard thing to rely on when making predictions. Tyler Reddick I think could potentially knock off one of those top-four with a win at Homestead, arguably his best track on the schedule, but Martinsville is not a great track for him and he was pretty middling relative to the other Toyota's in the spring at Las Vegas.
Eliminated: Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski
Championship 4
Track: Phoenix
Drivers: William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson
These have been the best four teams most of the season in regards to just pure pace. Larson and team haven't executed and had the luck that Byron, Truex, and Hamlin have had through the regular season, but still it is a championship team that is just two years removed from winning half the playoff races en route to the 2021 title.
This is really a tough group of drivers to handicap going into Phoenix, a track where all four drivers have won on and are usually always among the top contenders every time the series goes to the desert. I think the best way to break it down is to look at the three races at Phoenix since we switched to the Next Gen car:
Byron: 4.7 Avg. start, 8.3 Avg. finish, 44 Stage points, 76 Laps led
Truex: 15.0 Avg. start, 22.3 Avg. finish, 14 Stage points, 0 Laps led
Hamlin: 8.3 Avg. start, 14.7 Avg. finish, 12 Stage points, 0 Laps led
Larson: 4.0 Avg. start, 15.7 Avg. finish, 39 Stage points, 203 Laps led
Clearly HMS has figured it out at Phoenix in the Next Gen car more than JGR has to this point. And while they wouldn't award Stage points to the Championship 4 drivers, that just gives us an idea of how well they run throughout a race. I think a very underrated aspect of this is going to be qualifying and pit road. Phoenix is a very hard track to pass on, so starting up front and keeping it there is going to be huge. The No. 24 team has been the best on pit road all season and if they get that No. 1 pit box by out qualifying the other three at Phoenix, it could be game over given how close these four are on speed.
Champion: William Byron
