This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
If Joey Logano hopes to engrave his name on the Monster Energy Cup trophy for the first time, a victory here will go a long way to that end. The Penske Racing star won here in April of this year in a pretty strong performance. The No. 22 Ford team has been almost flawless on the super speedways this season, so that should boost Logano's confidence entering this event. The two biggest threats to
If Joey Logano hopes to engrave his name on the Monster Energy Cup trophy for the first time, a victory here will go a long way to that end. The Penske Racing star won here in April of this year in a pretty strong performance. The No. 22 Ford team has been almost flawless on the super speedways this season, so that should boost Logano's confidence entering this event. The two biggest threats to Logano's hopes for a Round of 8-advancing win this weekend would be Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Brad Keselowski. Both are past winners at this 2.66-mile oval and Keselowksi is seeking that Chase-advancing win to make the Round of 8 this Sunday afternoon. The stakes will be high and so will the nerves. As we saw with both Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer at Dover last weekend, the consequences of this Chase format is more pressure than ever at this point in the season. When the green flag drops the mayhem will ensue and championship hopes will be made or dashed after 500 miles of racing at 'Dega.
Talladega Superspeedway is unlike any of the other tracks in the Chase, but history still plays a big part. The drivers that tend to run up front and win at this large oval are usually the same drivers each and every time we visit Talladega. As you'll see in the table below, some of the drivers who are vying for the championship are also very proficient at Talladega Superspeedway. Here are the loop stats for the last 27 races at the famous restrictor-plate track.
| DRIVER | AVG FINISH | QUALITY PASSES | FASTEST LAPS | LAPS LED | LAPS IN TOP 15 | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 13.2 | 1,318 | 11 | 62 | 713 | 93.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 16.2 | 7,337 | 81 | 104 | 3,365 | 89.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 15.9 | 6,061 | 69 | 322 | 3,107 | 89.0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 15.1 | 4,196 | 72 | 240 | 2,035 | 88.9 |
| Joey Logano | 17.7 | 4,671 | 71 | 266 | 2,166 | 88.0 |
| Matt Kenseth | 18.5 | 6,004 | 87 | 463 | 3,030 | 86.9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 20.5 | 1,981 | 21 | 45 | 943 | 86.4 |
| William Byron | 29.0 | 138 | 4 | 14 | 125 | 85.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 18.1 | 5,123 | 100 | 302 | 2,443 | 84.7 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 11.4 | 2,239 | 51 | 41 | 961 | 82.3 |
| Kevin Harvick | 15.4 | 5,198 | 109 | 178 | 2,557 | 81.9 |
| Kyle Busch | 20.5 | 5,224 | 112 | 233 | 2,538 | 81.6 |
| Kyle Larson | 21.3 | 2,041 | 24 | 9 | 862 | 79.2 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr. | 16.0 | 130 | 2 | 5 | 98 | 79.0 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 21.3 | 5,527 | 69 | 52 | 2,528 | 78.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 20.5 | 5,237 | 84 | 218 | 2,424 | 78.3 |
| Paul Menard | 19.3 | 4,944 | 109 | 50 | 2,214 | 76.7 |
| Aric Almirola | 17.2 | 2,980 | 48 | 15 | 1,249 | 76.2 |
| Clint Bowyer | 16.1 | 3,546 | 143 | 110 | 1,725 | 75.9 |
| David Ragan | 18.1 | 3,590 | 95 | 38 | 1,619 | 75.9 |
The loop stats from Talladega look a bit odd when compared to other tracks in the series. Right away we notice a lack of drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick in the Top 10 of this list. Luck plays a large part in winning Talladega. Some times it's all in the timing and when to make your move at this oval. The second thing we notice is the lower overall driver ratings. Wrecks play a big part in Talladega racing, and everyone eventually gets caught up in a big one, putting a dent in their average statistical performance. In this season's earlier race at Talladega in April we saw Joey Logano run away and lead the final 42 laps en route to the dominant victory. That was a bit out of character for a track that usually yields last lap, even last turn of the tri-oval passes for the win. But again, it underscores the unpredictability of Talladega races. Yes indeed, anything can happen at Talladega. The 25 lead changes were a bit down from recent races at the monster Alabama oval, and it's a trend that NASCAR is looking to change. Hopefully, we'll see more passing this weekend, and the ability for cars to work together to run down a faster leader.
Like most Talladega races, we should see some big multi-car crashes and some late cautions as the urgency gets the best of the drivers in the closing laps. With the big wrecks and caution flags as a result of the pack racing, we should see some of the familiar "sand-bagging" drivers who hang out in the back of the field. Although stage racing has gone a long way towards tempering this possibility, the driver who keeps a low profile most of the race may ultimately be the one to push to the front in the closing laps and make for a thrilling victory. One thing is for certain, a spot in the next round of the Chase is up for grabs and this race helps to equalize the odds for some of the smaller teams. Some drivers will move on to Kansas with their Chase for the Cup hopes intact, while others will load the wrecked remains of their race cars onto the hauler and start to think about next season. Here are the drivers who you need to focus on for fantasy racing glory at Talladega Superspeedway.
The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win
Joey Logano - The Penske Racing star has won three of the last six Talladega races, including this spring's GEICO 500. The bad news is that Logano has also crashed out of two of the last six Talladega events, somewhat tempering his numbers. Still, the speed the No. 22 Ford team has displayed here since 2015 is undeniable. Logano has really supplanted his teammate, Brad Keselowski, as the driver to beat when we visit the monstrous Alabama oval. All these victories the last three seasons at this facility have elevated Logano's Talladega Top-5 rate to 32-percent. That's a pretty high mark considering the high stakes nature of this racing. We expect this driver and team to once again be out front when it comes down to the closing laps of the 1000Bulbs.com 500.
Brad Keselowski - The five-time Talladega winner comes to central Alabama this weekend looking for a win and automatic berth in the next round of the Chase. Considering his recent speed on superspeedway ovals, Keselowski will have those odds on his side. The Penske Racing star won this event one year ago in thrilling fashion for his fifth-career victory at Talladega Superspeedway. While the two ovals of Daytona and Talladega haven't been to kind to the driver of the No. 2 Ford in 2018, we have to chalk that up to bad luck. Keselowski has crashed out of all three restrictor-plate events this season, but he's still shown world class speed in those events. This driver and team have had their number pop up quite a bit at Talladega over the years, so Keselowski is always a threat to win.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has shaken up the NASCAR hierarchy on the restrictor-plate race tracks the last two seasons. Stenhouse has won at both Daytona and Talladega and he's collected three Top-5 finishes as well as over 100 laps led in those events. The speed of the No. 17 Ford team at these huge ovals has been undeniable since 2017. Earlier this season at Talladega, Stenhouse started seventh on the grid and peddled his Ford Fusion to a fifth-place finish in the GEICO 500. This July at Daytona, he led a whopping 51 laps before getting rolled up in the last major accident and finishing 17th. It seems that Stenhouse brings home run potential to the table each time we visit Daytona or Talladega. It's good to keep that in mind while filling out your fantasy racing lineups this weekend.
Chase Elliott - Nearly everything Elliott is touching right now is turning to gold. He's coming off a huge victory at Dover last weekend, and that locks him into the Round of 8 in the Chase. So a good bit of the pressure is off this weekend, and that may be a prescription for victory at Talladega. Elliott won't have to press, and he can relax and just have fun racing. Pressing and pushing a bad position at Dega can get you in trouble in a hurry. Elliott qualified fifth and finished third-place earlier this season at the Alabama oval. Then the No. 9 team went onto win the pole position at Daytona in July. Speed on these superspeedways has not been a problem for this driver and team. Elliott has cracked the Top 5 twice at Talladega in five starts, and has led 62 laps in that time. Racing up front here is not unfamiliar to him at all.
Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning
Ryan Newman - He's been unspectacular this season, but as for superspeedways he's been nearly perfection this season. Newman has racked up eighth-, ninth- and eighth-place finishes in his starts between Daytona and Talladega in 2018. That has extended his current Top-10 streak between these two ovals to five-straight races, dating back to the summer of 2017. Newman simply knows things about racing in the draft that these younger drivers do not. That experience makes him a valuable commodity in fantasy racing circles when it comes to this high stakes form of racing. The Richard Childress Racing veteran has never won at Dega, so don't expect to see him in victory lane on Sunday. However, he does crack the Top 10 here at a near 40-percent rate, which is pretty darn good.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin got a much needed boost with his runner-up finish at Dover this past weekend. Now the Joe Gibbs Racing star will look to turn in a good Talladega effort and take one step closer to Homestead and the championship. Hamlin is a one-time Talladega winner (2014) and he's posted nine-career Top-10 finishes (36-percent) at this facility. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been particularly steady in his last four Talladega efforts, netting finishes of third-, 11th-, sixth- and 14th-place. That works out to a stellar 8.5 average finish over the span. Speed has not been a problem this season for the JGR No. 11 team on the restrictor-plate race tracks. Hamlin has 33 combined laps led, a third-place Daytona 500 finish and a Top-15 finish earlier this season at Talladega. We see tons of upside and potential with Hamlin in Sunday's 1000Bulbs.com 500.
Kurt Busch - We look forward to the Stewart Haas Racing veteran's start at Talladega this weekend. He's been one of the more consistent performers on the Daytona and Talladega ovals the last four seasons. Busch's plate-track stats speak for themselves with 19 Top 10s in 35 Talladega starts. That's a strong 54-percent Top-10 rate on a track that requires as much luck as skill to succeed. The veteran driver has cracked the Top 10 an extraordinary six times in his last eight starts at the central Alabama facility. That type of skill and luck doesn't happen by accident. Busch is a polished superspeedway racer, and knows the ins-and-outs of this game. He's about as safe a driver as you can pick for your lineups this weekend.
Aric Almirola - The Stewart Haas Racing veteran will need to get over his Dover mistakes and refocus for Talladega this weekend. Almirola had a shot at the win last week, but some bad pit strategy took them out of contention late. The good news is that the driver of the No. 10 Ford is a good restrictor-plate driver. Almirola has just five-career Top 10s at this Alabama oval, but four of the five have come since 2016. As his equipment as improved over the years, so has his driving skill on these large tracks. Aside from Almirola's four-race Talladega Top-10 streak, he also has fourth- and 11th-place finishes in two of his last three Daytona starts. Let's not forget he was a half-lap away from being this season's Daytona 500 champion before an ill-advised block of the No. 3 Chevrolet.
Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Talladega who can provide a solid finish
Alex Bowman - It seems fitting that the driver who took over Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s ride at Hendrick Motorsports has carried on his tradition of performing well on superspeedway ovals. Bowman has done just that in his first season. He won the pole for the Daytona 500 in February, and finished a respectable 17th that Sunday afternoon. He's gone on to post eighth- and 10th-place finishes in the succeeding events at Talladega and Daytona during the summer. When NASCAR last visited the central Alabama oval, Bowman led a surprising 26 laps and cruised to an eighth-place finish. Bowman was second only to Joey Logano that day in terms of laps led. It's that kind of race-winning speed we expect the No. 88 team to show up with again this weekend.
David Ragan - For some drivers, superspeedway racing just comes naturally. As it pertains to Ragan, that's exactly the case. He picked up his first-career Monster Energy Cup win on a restrictor-plate track (Daytona 2011), and he would follow two seasons later with his second victory at the oval in Talladega. This Front Row Motorsports veteran just understands racing in the draft way better than most drivers. Ragan's finishing stats at Talladega Superspeedway bear this fact out. He has 10 Top-10 finishes in 23 starts (44-percent), and he's riding a three-race Talladega Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. The driver of the No. 38 Ford is not on our fantasy radar screens most weekends, but Ragan always has relevance in these races.
Chris Buescher - One of the more unlikely heroes this weekend will be Buescher and his No. 27 Chevrolet team. The 2018 campaign in general has had its ups-and-downs. However, the big bright spot has been the restrictor-plate race tracks. Buescher's veteran experience and ECR's horsepower have made these events his best of the season. The veteran driver has only two Top-10 finishes this season and they have both come at Daytona. His Talladega outing in April was no less impressive with an 11th-place finish in the GEICO 500. Over the last seven races between the two ovals, Buescher has piled up two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes and a stellar 14.0 average across the span. He's managed to avoid trouble in most of these events, and he's been found racing up front at crunch time. That's a valuable commodity in this style of racing.
Austin Dillon - The Daytona 500 winner has always been a top performer on the superspeedways. Although, he's had more success at the Daytona oval than the Talladega oval, that mostly comes down to luck. The No. 3 Chevrolet is always fast, and that's more than half the battle. Dillon proved his Daytona 500 victory earlier this season was no fluke when he finished ninth at Daytona in the July night race. That now gives the Richard Childress Racing driver nine-combined Top 10s between the two huge ovals. These style tracks are easily his best in the NASCAR schedule. Dillon finished ninth in this event two seasons ago, and we would expect him to challenge that mark Sunday in the 1000Bulbs.com 500.
Trevor Bayne - The 2011 Daytona 500 winner has been a steady hand at superspeedway racing most of his career. Bayne has shown some flashes of brilliance the last couple seasons as Roush Fenway Racing's restrictor-plate program has really taken off. He finished third in this event one year ago, and he finished 10th in the 2017 Daytona 500. Bayne now has two Talladega Top 10s in his last five visits to the central Alabama speedway. Outside of the good efforts have been some crashes and DNF's, but that's the risk. Bayne can find trouble on these high stakes ovals just as fast as he can lead laps and crack the Top 10. It's a bit of a fantasy racing risk to deploy the driver of the No. 6 Ford in your fantasy lineups, but the upside is almost too good to ignore.
Darrell Wallace Jr. - The Richard Petty Motorsports youngster hasn't made it into our sleepers list much this season, but superspeedway racing has been a good niche for him and his team in 2018. Wallace finished an electric runner-up in the Daytona 500 this February, but what most folks have probably overlooked is that the No. 43 Chevrolet has been a Top-15 finisher on these style ovals more often than not since last year. Wallace's last four Daytona/Talladega efforts have netted 15th-, second-, 16th- and 14th-place finishes. Even the driver he replaced, Aric Almirola, earned three Top-5 finishes in this same car at Daytona and Talladega last season. RPM's speedway cars are awesome fast, and Wallace has been doing a commendable job driving them.
Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week
Kyle Larson - The stakes are pretty high for Larson this weekend. However, he's not been one to answer the bell this season when it's really mattered. Talladega could be that golden ticket that locks him into the Round 8 and Larson knows it. A crash and DNF could drop him into perilous waters, and you can bet he'll be trying to avoid that. His body of work on the big ovals the last two seasons is nothing to write home about. Larson's last seven starts between Talladega and Daytona have netted no Top-10 finishes and only three Top-15 finishes vs. three DNF's. The average finish stands around a sub-par 22.0. The Chip Ganassi Racing star's last two starts on superspeedways have resulted in crashes and DNF's. Talladega in April, and Daytona in July.
Kevin Harvick - The Stewart Haas Racing star has had some tough luck finishing these superspeedway races of late, but the speed has been there. Harvick has led 92 combined laps in his last seven Daytona/Talladega events. However, he has only one Top-10 finish during this seven-race span. This is one of the rare weeks where the "Big Three" drivers are not good fantasy racing plays. Harvick is no exception. He's crashed out of four of his last five restrictor-plate events. The driver of the No. 4 Ford has the potential to prove us wrong this weekend as his 43-percent Top-10 rate at this oval shows, but luck hasn't been on his side of late. From a weekly lineup standpoint, it would be best to reserve a start for Harvick on much safer oval later in the Chase, than to risk it this weekend.
Kyle Busch - The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had a tough time this season on the superspeedways, but he comes to Talladega this weekend in pretty good shape as it pertains to the Chase, so the pressure will not be unbearable. His finishes of 25th-, 13th- and 33rd-place this season between Daytona and Talladega have shown a real lack of speed and engagement in this style of racing. Busch now only has one Top-10 finish in his last seven starts between these two facilities. This cold streak has dropped the driver of the No. 18 Toyota's Top-10 performance at Talladega to a lowly 27-percent for his career. It just seems that Busch is more likely to find trouble in these races than success. His 20.5 career average finish at this speedway demonstrates that fact.
Martin Truex Jr. - This may be the only time this year to give Truex a break in weekly lineup leagues. Coming off a disappointment at Dover this past week, his playoff status still looks pretty solid based on points. While he'd like to win at Talladega and get the automatic ticket, the work ahead is pretty daunting. The one weakness of the Furniture Row Racing star has been the superspeedway ovals. Truex has only scored one Top-10 finish in his last seven races between Daytona and Talladega. In fact, four of those finishes across the span have been outside the Top 20. The speed to succeed has been there for the team, but Truex's luck and skill at this style of racing just don't come together most starts. It's best to lay off any fantasy racing expectations for Truex this weekend.
