We have one card left until UFC 298, which is packed to the gills with 14 fights for prospective bettors and DFS players to potentially profit. We'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including two distinct Prize Picks formats. Plays this week include a fighter looking for his first win in the Octagon after two consecutive losses, as well as a knockout artist who will attempt to bounce back from a debut loss. Our betting lines this week are taken from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Devin Clark ($8,900)
Clark looks to be in a great spot at this salary, as Marcin Prachnio is an explosive (somewhat reckless) kickboxer who has never shown competency on the ground. "Brown Bear" has shown incredible toughness in fights with Alonzo Menifield and others, while Prachnio was taken down four times before being submitted by Vitor Petrino in his last fight. As long as he can avoid eating a big shot early, Clark looks like a 100-point performance waiting to happen.
Fernie Garcia ($7,500)
I am not clear on why Hyder Amil is a significant favorite in this matchup, as Garcia's pressure, grappling, and scrambling ability all seem to be slightly above what the Contender Series alumnus has shown thus far. Garcia may be 0-2 in the organization, but I count that as experience against tougher fighters than "The Hurricane" has encountered in his eight professional fights.
Jeremiah Wells ($8,500)
Wells' chaotic style finally got the better of him in his last bout, as he got noticeably tired in Round 3 before he was submitted by Carlston Harris. Still, the salary is far too good to pass here, as Wells' power and ability to wrestle have led to an average of 91.6 points in five UFC fights. Max Griffin is a slick boxer but needs space to get his offense going. I expect Wells to speed ahead in the first two rounds, which will lead to a decision win even if he has little left in the tank.
Loma Lookboonmee ($9,400)
Lookboonmee has rounded out her game since her UFC debut, as the decorated Muay Thai fighter has recorded 11 takedowns in her last four fights. This should leave little path to victory for Bruna Brasil, who can work her own wrestling game but lacks the aggression and persistence of Lookboonmee on the ground and won't be able to compete in space. The salary may be a bit prohibitive, but Loma has logged at least 89 points in each of her last three wins, making her a relatively strong cash play.
Bogdan Guskov ($7,800)
I was perhaps a little too high on Guskov ahead of his UFC debut against a seasoned veteran like Volkan Oezdemir, but he gets a fighter for his sophomore appearance in Zac Pauga, who hasn't shown himself to be a consistent finisher, works slowly, and likes to control his opponents in the clinch. Guskov's grappling, aggression, and brutal offense from in close should all pay dividends here, leading to his first win in the Octagon.
Rodolfo Vieira ($8,200)
I had some issues with the earlier pricing on this slate, but Vieira's fight with Armen Petrosyan is appropriately close, as Petrosyan's abysmal takedown defense rate (36 percent) is counterbalanced by Vieira's inability to fight while tired. This means that Vieira will almost certainly have early success, with the only issue being whether he can finish the fight or be in such dominant positions that he does not drain his gas tank. I'm going to ride with the likely early momentum of the BJJ champion here, as Petrosyan could work just slowly enough to give his opponent time to breathe if this fight makes it to the later rounds.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Daniel Marcos UNDER 66.5 Significant Strikes, Gregory Rodrigues UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes, Joe Pyfer OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes, and Dan Ige OVER 65.5 Significant Strikes
Marcos has already shown himself to be an extreme counterstriker, so I can only assume a line this high has to do with the idea that Aori Qileng will come after his opponent. The issue is that it's unlikely that "The Mongolian Murderer" will be able to force the fight he wants, as Marcos' superior athleticism and footwork should allow him to escape whenever necessary. I expect "Soncora" to pick Qileng apart for the better part of 15 minutes, leading to a decision and a low strike total.
Between Brad Tavares' disappearing chin and Rodirgues' aggression, I was a bit surprised to see this total so high. It should be noted that, while he doesn't go to it often, Rodriguez can rely on his world-class grappling game at any time, which would further reduce significant strikes. Either way, it's hard for me to see this total going over, as there are just too many ways that the under can come in.
The fact that Pyfer has been a finishing machine since joining the UFC likely accounts for the low total here, but Jack Hermansson is incredibly hard to put away on the feet, and will almost certainly be the better grappler in this matchup. I should also note that I like testing prospects in spots like this, and Hermannson would be the toughest guy Pyfer has beaten (let alone finished) by a wide margin. Even if "The Joker" does force some grappling exchanges, it would be hard not to go over this total in a five-round fight.
While both men have the ability to grapple, Andre Fili and Dan Ige should be the battle of two kickboxers who will stand in the center of the cage and try to strike. Fili impressed with a quick knockout in his last performance against Lucas Almeida, but Ige has always been a good defensive fighter, which should work to prolong this one and run up the total.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Carlos Prates UNDER 8.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Michael Johnson OVER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Robert Bryczek UNDER 4.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Prates should be an extremely fun addition to the roster, as he is rangy, explosive, and will never stop pressuring his opponents. Trevin Giles has had his chin cracked by fighters like Michael Morales and Dricus Du Plessis, and both fighters like to stand at range and throw. All of this should add up to a short night at the office.
Michael Johnson throws powerful, straight shots, so I had a bit of hesitation about banking on the over against an opponent who is going to come right after him. Ultimately, however, Darrius Flowers is a good defensive fighter, and Johnson tends to fight at a slower pace. There may be a few tense moments, but I do expect this one to make its way well past the halfway mark of Round 2.
Ihor Potieria is the very definition of an action fighter, as none of his four UFC fights have made it past the second round. This bout should take less time than most, as Bryczek is an incredibly powerful boxer, and "The Duelist" has a tendency to fight with his hands down. Not only do I expect this one to go under the time limit, but DraftKings players should look out for the bonus on bouts that finish in under a minute.
Bets to Consider
Bolaji Oki (-198)
As this fight was just recently put together, it's hard to find too many options outside of the major DFS sites, but anything under (-200) is tempting for Oki, who is incredibly fast and powerful and mixes up his targets well. Timothy Cuamba seems like a decent kickboxer, but he should just get swallowed up by a more aggressive opponent who won't stop until he gets his hand raised.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 86 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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