Futures betting in the UFC is all about timing, opportunity, and paths -- not just talent. These four divisions exhibit sufficient volatility and movement that betting now can provide us with strong closing-line value later in the year.
UFC Futures: Best Bets to Hold the Belt at Year's End
Below are four fighters across key men's divisions who have a realistic path to ending the year as champion, with odds that still offer value if things break the right way.
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Welterweight Champion - Shavkat Rakhmonov (+500)
• Rakhmonov is expected to return in early-2026 after recovering from the injury that he sustained before the Ian Garry fight.
• Assuming he comes back anywhere near full strength, he should have no trouble winning his return fight, immediately re-entering title contention.
• A late-2026 title shot is very realistic, and stylistically, I favor him against Islam Makhachev if that matchup materializes.
• His finishing ability, pressure, and composure make him extremely dangerous over five rounds.
Betting Analysis: At +500, this is a bet on talent and timing the spot. If Shavkat returns healthy, he's one of the most complete fighters in the sport.
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov (+500)
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Lightweight Champion - Max Holloway (+700)
• Holloway has shown zero signs of slowing down and still looks like one of the best fighters on the planet.
• He's scheduled to face Charles Oliveira in March, and a win there would give him a clear path toward another title shot.
• The likely next step would be the winner of Pimblett vs. Gaethje, matchups that Holloway matches up extremely well with.
• He's already dismantled Gaethje, and stylistically, Pimblett should struggle badly with Holloway's volume and pace.
Betting Analysis: This is a legacy futures bet. Holloway's name, activity, and matchup paths matter here. At +700, you're buying a proven champion with a very real road back to gold.
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Max Holloway (+700)
Featherweight Champion - Diego Lopes (+200)
• Lopes gets his rematch with Alexander Volkanovski for the belt, and that's everything in this division.
• While Volkanovski dominated early in their first meeting, Lopes clearly found his rhythm in the later rounds.
• That late-fight momentum is key, especially heading into a rematch where Lopes knows exactly what adjustments he needs.
• If Lopes wins the belt, there's a very strong chance he holds it through the end of the year, given the current state of the division.
Betting Analysis: Here we have shorter odds, but they are justified. This is a bet on immediate outcome plus divisional stability. If Lopes wins the rematch, this ticket ages beautifully.
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Diego Lopes (+200)
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Bantamweight Champion: Umar Nurmagomedov (+250)
• Nurmagomedov fights on the first card of the new year, setting him up perfectly for a title push in 2026.
• I have no concerns about him winning his upcoming fight
• The only risk here is timing: Merab Dvalishvili potentially getting a rematch with Petr Yan could delay Umar's title shot.
• That said, if Nurmagomedov does get the shot, it's a very strong bet that he wins and retains the belt through year's end.
Betting Analysis: This is a calendar risk, not a skill risk. At +250, you're betting that timing breaks right, and if it does, Umar is extremely likely to cash.
UFC Betting Futures Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov (+250)
2026 UFC Futures Betting Picks Summary
- Welterweight Champion Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov (+500)
- Lightweight Champion Pick: Max Holloway (+700)
- Featherweight Champion Pick: Diego Lopes (+200)
- Bantamweight Champion Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov (+250)
These are the futures where paths make sense, skill backs it up, and the odds still offer breathing room.
